FanPost

A First (actually second) Look at the 2014 Off Season

This is a very important off-season for us. It is the first year where we have to take serious consideration to the important contracts coming up for renewal within the next couple of years. We’ll have to make some tough decisions to make. First, I want to take a look at what I think are relevant decisions to make regarding our current roster.

Release

1. Gore – yes, Gore. It saves us $6.5m in cap space. Even a major pay cut likely won’t work here.

2. Snyder

3. Baldwin

4. Rogers

5. Reed

6. Campbell

7. Sampson

8. Tupou

9. Fleming

10. Seymore

Let Walk

1. Manningham

2. Whitner

3. Goodwin

4. Brown

5. TJE

6. Dobbs

7. Cox

8. Dixon

Resign

1. Boldin – 2013 CAP $6m

a. 3 years

b. $18.5m

c. $3m SB

d. $5m 2014 CAP / $6m 2015 CAP / $7.5m 2016 CAP

e. $8m guaranteed

f. $3m base 2014 / $4m base 2015 / $5.5m base 2016

g. $1m Roster Bonus each year

h. $4m DM 2015 / $1m DM 2016

2. Wright – 2013 CAP $550k

a. $600k SB

b. $900k base 2014 / $1.15m base 2015

c. $1.5m guarantee

d. $250k WOB each season

e. $1.5m CAP 2014 / $1.75m CAP 2015

f. $1.5m DM 2014 / $300k DM 2015

3. Wilhoite – 2013 CAP $550k / 2014 CAP $600k

4. Osgood – 2013 CAP $0.5m ($940k base) / 2014 CAP $1.1m

5. McCoy – 2013 CAP $1.45m / 2014 CAP $1.6m

6. Dawson – 2013 CAP $2.5m

a. $500k SB

b. $1.5m Base – no guarantee

c. $500k RB

d. $150k WOB

Extensions

1. WAIT

a. V. Davis – wait till June 1, 2015

b. A. Smith – wait till June 1, 2014

2. NOW

a. Crabtree

1- 5 yrs. / $43.5m

2- $10m SB

3- $500k RB each year

4- Base

a- $3.5m

b- $4.5m

c- $6.5m

d- $7.5m

e- $9m

5- Cap

a- $6.27m

b- $7m

c- $9m

d- $10m

e- $11.5m

6- $22.5m guaranteed

7- Dead Money - $4m after 2016 / $2m after 2017

b. Bowman – a simple restructure will do.

c. Kaepernick

1- 7 years / $105.5m

2- $12.5m SB

3- $500k WOB each year

4- $500k RB each year

5- $44.5m guaranteed

6- Base

a- $5m 2014

b- $7m 2015

c- $9m 2016

d- $11m 2017

e- $15m 2018

f- $18m 2019

g- $21m 2020

7- Cap

a- $9m+ 2014

b- $10.5m 2015

c- $12.5m 2016

d- $14.5m 2017

e- $18.5m 2018

f- $19m 2019

g- $22m 2020

8- Dead Money

a- $2.5m after 2017

b- Nothing after 2018

Yeah, I know, many think CK will get his $18m/year contract. I don’t. I accept that he won’t be getting a $12m/year contract either. So this one is $15.7m/year…a compromise…and, I think, more realistic. The good part of it is that after season five (2018), there is no dead money. By the end of 2017, we could restructure and extend again for a $20+m/year contract if it is justified.

3. DON’T

a. Iupati – let him walk after 2014 season

b. Dorsey – re-evaluate after 2014 season

c. Brooks – cutting after 2015 would save $7.35m off the cap

d. Willis – Bowman’s recovery and the decline of Willis’ skills are to be watched. $7.9m cap savings if cut after 2014 and $9.3m savings if cut after 2015. He is a franchise. But his talent level will begin to diminish in the next few years.

Next, I want to take a look at the areas of need we have and some players I like in the draft. This is NOT an exhaustive list of players I like. Of course, as an example, I would love a player like Mike Evans at WR. But I highly doubt he falls to us and I doubt it’s worth it to spend the draft capital to move up to get him. So I’ve chosen not to put him on the list. In addition, I’ve begun making critical decisions regarding other players. There are lots of good players in this draft. But I honestly want a WR or two who can lift the lid off the secondary…to force their safeties to sit back an extra few steps. It opens up the field for Crabs and Boldin underneath, and for the running game. I want CBs that are big AND fast AND talented. Not easy to find, I admit. But that’s what’s looking at in this list.

Wide Receivers

1. LaDamien Washington – Missouri – 6’4" 205 – 4.30/40 (6th rd.)

2. Jeff Janis – Saginaw Valley St. – 6’3" 215 – 4.32/40 (4th rd.)

3. Martavis Bryant – Clemson – 6’5" 200 – 4.28/40 (2nd - 3rd rd.)

4. Robert Herron – Wyoming – 5’9" 187 – 4.28/40 (3rd - 4th rd.)

5. Dri Archer – Kent St. – 5’8" 175 – 4.26/40 (7th rd.)

Cornerbacks

1. Keith McGill - Utah – 6’2" 205 4.38/40 (3rd – 4th rd.)

2. Pierre Desir - Lindenwood – 6’1" 197 4.46/40 (2nd – 3rd rd.)

3. Kyle Fuller - VA Tech – 6’0" 194 4.34/40 (2nd -3rd rd.)

4. Aaron Colvin - Oklahoma – 6’0" 192 – 4.38/40 (2nd – 3rd rd.)

5. Bradley Roby – Ohio St. – 5’11" 192 – 4.29/40 (1st – 2nd rd.)

6. E.J. Gaines – Missouri – 5’10" 195 – 4.35/40 (2nd-3rd rd.)

Strong Safety

1. Deone Bucannon – Washington St. – 6’1" 215 (2nd rd.)

2. Ahmad Dixon – Baylor – 6’0" 205 (2nd – 3rd rd.)

3. Craig Loston – LSU – 6’1" 209 (3rd = 4th rd.)

Centers

1. Travis Swanson – Arkansas – 6’4" 318 (1st – 2nd rd.)

2. Tyler Larson – Utah St. – 6’4" 312 (3rd- 5th rd.)

3. Marcus Martin – USC – 6’3" 310 (5th – 6th rd.)

Guards

1. Brandon Lindor – Miami – 6’6" 319 (5th – 6th rd.)

2. Jon Halapio – Florida – 6’3" 320 (4th – 5th rd.)

3. Xavier Su’a Filo – UCLA – 6’3" 305 (2nd – 3rd rd.)

4. Chris Watt – Notre Dame – 6’3" 321 (3rd – 4th rd.)

Defensive Tackles

1. Kelcy Quarles – South Carolina – 6’3" 298 4.76/40 (2nd – 3rd rd.)

2. Ego Ferguson – LSU – 6’2" 309 4.86/40 (3rd rd.)

3. Caraun Reid – Princeton – 6’2" 305 4.78/40 (3rd – 4th rd.)

4. Zack Kerr – Delaware – 6’2" 334 4.98/40 (7th rd. – udfa)

Defensive Ends

1. Ed Stinson – Alabama – 6’3" 292 4.76/40 (2nd – 4th rd.)

2. Trent Murphy – Stanford – 6’6" 265 4.72/40 (1st – 2nd rd.)

3. Will Clark – West Virginia – 6’6" 277 4.72/40 (3rd – 4th rd.)

4. Taylor Hart – Oregon – 6’6" 287 4.79/40 (5th – 6th rd.)

Outside Linebacker

1. James Gayle – Virginia Tech – 6’4" 255 4.48/40 (3rd – 4th rd.)

2. Jordan Tripp – Montana – 6’3" 237 4.57/40 (3rd – 7th rd.)

Quarterbacks

1. Logan Thomas – Virginia Tech – 6’6" 254 4.56/40 (6th – 7th rd.)

2. Tajh Boyd – Clemson – 6’1" 225 4.54/40 (3rd – 5th rd.)

3. Jimmy Garappola – E. Illinois – 6’2" 225 4.68/40 (2nd – 4th rd.)

Now for the draft. I have but one trade I want to make. Unless one of the key players of the first round (Matthews, Robinson, Dennard, etc) fall to us, I would just as soon trade down. Although I’m showing a trade down with Oakland, it could be with any of a few teams. I also could see the second pick be one in 2015. But there are a few key players I like in that 90 to 120 range that it would be nice to have another pick for.

Note that I know a lot of people think we are in good shape and don’t need to draft this many people. I also know there are some, like myself, who think tough choices will force us to use the draft to fill our roster rather than keeping some otherwise good players, like Dobbs and TJE.

I know I’ve drafted more Guards and CBs than we need. But I honestly think Iupati is a goner after 2014 and frankly am not thrilled with the development of Boone and Looney. Bringing in a few guards will create the competition we need. I feel similarly about the Center position. There are no guarantees that Kilgore or Looney will impress enough to be handed the job. We need competition. Same goes with CB. With Brown, Rogers and Cox gone, bringing in a few rookies to compete is good. As for the DL, I just want to see us prepare for the post-Justin era. By the end of the 2015 season we’ll likely lose Justin, McDonald and Brooks from our front seven…along with Dorsey (2014) and Williams (2015). And we can’t just assume that Carradine, Lemonier, and Dial will be good enough to fill the roles.

30 Trade – To OAK. Picks 36 And 103

36 DE Trent Murphy Stanford – best pass rusher in the draft…could be next JJ Watt

56 CB Kyle Fuller Virginia Tech – incredibly fast and great tackler…above average cover

61 S Deone Bucannon Washington State – best SS in the draft…equally strong against run and pass

77 DT Kelcy Quarles South Carolina – very fast, very quick, very strong, inconsistent

94 C Tyler Larsen Utah State – second best center in the draft

Comp WR Martavis Bryant Clemson – has the speed and size to lift the lid off the secondary

103 WR Robert Herron Wyoming – a poor man’s T. Austin

125 CB Keith McGill Utah – big, tall, fast, good cover corner

158 OG Ryan Groy Wisconsin – nasty and well coached from a great program for linemen

189 RB Dri Archer Kent State – best return man in the draft…can play wr or rb.

218 CB Pierre Desir Lindenwood – raw, but big, strong and great athlete

219 QB Logan Thomas Virginia Tech – poor man’s CK…big, fast, great arm.

220 OLB Jordan Tripp Montana – likely not available this late, but excellent speed and strength

222 OG Jon Halapio Florida – also not likely available this late, but strong, mean and quick.

UDFA DE/OLB James Gayle Virginia Tech – speed rusher, horrible against run, but great pass rusher

UDFA DE/DT Will Clark West Virginia – another raw talent…very quick...

UDFA DT Caraun Reid Princeton – excellent at pushing the center of the line back and eating up runners

UDFA OG Brandon Lindor Miami – been dropping…some questions about his motor…but a 4th rd. talent.

UDFA CB Brandon Dixon NW Missouri ST. – sleeper…deeply talented…super fast…develop his cover skills

Depth (draft in italic)

QB – Kaepernick, McCoy, Thomas

RB – Lattimore, Hunter, LMJ, Archer

FB – Miller, Debniak

WR – Crabtree, Boldin, Patton, Bryant, Herron, Carswell, Osgood (Carswell cut)

TE – Davis, McDonald, Celek, Carrier (Celek or Carrier cut)

OT – Davis, Staley, Marquardt, Brykowski (Brykowski a cut candidate, Marquardt PS)

G – Iupati, Boone, Groy, Halapio, Lindor (one of the rookies is cut and one to PS)

C – Kilgore, Looney, McDermitt, Larson (Looney a cut candidate)

CB – Culliver, Brock, Wright, Morris, Fuller, McGill, Desir, Dixon (Desir cut, Dixon PS)

SS – Bucannon, Dahl

FS – Reid, Spillman, Ventrone (Ventrone cut prospect)

ILB – Willis, Bowman, Wilhoite, Moody

OLB – Smith, Brooks, Skuta, Lemonier, Tripp, Gayle (Gayle cut, Tripp PS)

DE – Smith, McDonald, Carradine, Okoye, Murphy, Clark (Clark cut, Okoye PS)

DT – Dorsey, Williams, Dial, Quarles, Reid (Dial and Reid cut)

I ran all this through the Salary Cap Calculator on OverTheCap.com. Even after the Crabtree and Kaepernick extensions we’re about $5m under the cap for the draft. After the cuts are made to get the team down to 53, I suspect we’ll have a couple of million left over for in-season maneuvers. Plus, if I’m not mistaken, Bowman’s likely to miss the first six games on the PUP list…and his salary during that time is not counted against the CAP…but Jason and Matt can correct me on that. That being said, I admit I am not much more than a dangerous amateur at this CAP stuff.

Enjoy and share your thoughts, insights, critiques and suggestions. Oh, and btw, I know I made some controversial suggestions. I'm not adamant about any of them. I'm just throwing ideas out and enjoying all this. So don't call me names for my attempt to have some fun here. The 2014 off season is a mere meaningless Super Bowl away. I'm chomping at the bit.



This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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