FanPost

"Playing Baalke" ... At The Mid-Season Bye

We've made it to the almost-halfway-point bye and, next to the pre-training-camp doldrums, the most boring week of the Niners' year. The first half hasn't gone as well as most of us hoped but we're still in the race to the playoffs, although not probably with a desirable seeding. I usually do my "playing Baalke" post after the end of each year's playoffs ... I'll do that again next February, but boredom spurs me to take a mid-season crack at it. So, what's "playing Baalke" you ask? It's me taking over Baalke's job and making all of the roster decisions that must be made to create the season-opening 53-man roster for the 2015 season next September. I won't bore you by going through all of the additions to the 90-man and then the cuts to get to the final 53 ... I'll just predict the final result.

Some major changes to the roster will occur before the 2015 season. The Niners will have 18 free agents at the conclusion of this season, so let's start with my predicted dispositions for that group.

PART 1 -- FREE AGENTS: WHO STAYS AND WHO GOES

Disposition of our pending FAs falls into three categories: (a) definitely extend/re-sign, (b) extend/re-sign if at the right price, and (c) let them walk and get a 2016 draft compensation pick in return. Here's how I see that breaking down:

Extend / Re-Sign Them:

  • QB Josh Johnson ... Gabbert is likely gone, and we need an experienced backup until a QB draftee is developed; Johnson knows the system, is reasonably effective, and is inexpensive.
  • RB Kendall Hunter ... knows the system; consistent contributor (when healthy); nice COP to the Hyde/Lattimore tandem.
  • DL Tony Jerod-Eddie ... as between he and Dobbs, he's the keeper.
  • ILB Michael Wilhoite ... outstanding ST player and ILB-backup until Willis and/or Bowman are reinjured or retire.
  • CB Parrish Cox ... best CB on the roster season-to-date (except for the Denver debacle).
  • LS Kyle Nelson ... a no-brainer.

Extend / Re-Sign Them IF At The "Right Price":

  • WR Brandon Lloyd ... assuming that he continues to make a significant contribution this season and still wants to play.
  • OLB Dan Skuta ... outstanding OLB-backup until a younger guy beats him out.
  • CB Chris Culliver ... don't see him as a future starter; acceptable as an experienced backup IF he's willing to accept that role and the salary that goes with it; otherwise, let him walk; probably gone.
  • CB Chris Cook ... knows the system; still a bit of an unknown at this point; bring him to camp and let him compete for a job.

Let Them Walk:

  • QB Blaine Gabbert ... Josh Johnson is better and cheaper at this point; don't see the Niners signing yet another veteran free agent QB given the salary cap limitations.
  • RB Frank Gore ... Frank can still play, but not for anything close to his current compensation; would rather see him retire in glory than ask him to play a backup role for peanuts, although he might agree to do that for one more year.
  • WR Michael Crabtree ... IMO he has never been more than a good possession receiver when he is healthy; so, my only issues with Crabs are: (a) though drafted in the first round and paid like a first-rounder, he's not and never will be a #1 WR; (b) he's not consistently reliable because of numerous injuries; (c) his "great hands" don't seem to be so great anymore ... he leads the team in drops so far this season; and, (d) he will demand more money in a contract extension than he is worth. Thus, my conclusion is to let him walk, free up some cap room, and get a draft comp pick for him.
  • TE Garrett Celek ... Carrier has proven to be the superior #3 TE.
  • OG Mike Iupati ... Big Mike has done a superior job as a run blocker, but is a liability in pass protection; more importantly, we simply can't afford him any longer ... go cheaper and get more balanced production.
  • DL Demarcus Dobbs ... time to give Carradine and Dial a chance to play; though a good ST contributor, Dobbs is the low man on the projected DL totem pole.
  • ST / WR Kassim Osgood ... hopefully a younger guy will replace him; bring him back in 2015 only if absolutely necessary.
  • ST / S Bubba Ventrone ... hopefully a younger guy will replace him; bring him back in 2015 only if absolutely necessary.

PART 2 -- POTENTIAL TRADES

Given the need for additional cap space to extend Aldon and others and absorb Kaep's comp hit, I think it possible that Baalke will entertain trade offers for selected veterans, if there are any takers. Most likely candidates might include:

  • OLB Ahmad Brooks ... so far this season Brooks has been a significant disappointment; he's still somewhat out of shape and the results have shown; combine that with his $9.65 million 2015 cap hit and Aaron Lynch's quick development makes Brooks a trade target, if there are any takers, and there should be for pass-rushers.
  • DL Ray McDonald ... if it's time to start playing the younger guys, Ray's diminishing contribution and $6.48 million 2015 cap hit, in addition to the pending DV charge, make him a trade target, again, if there are any takers; the probability of this move will change, one way or the other, when we learn the outcome of the pending DV situation.
  • S/ST Craig Dahl ... simply not worth his $1.93 million 2015 cap hit; not likely that there would be trade interest, in which case he simply gets cut if he won't again accept a comp renegotiation.
  • ILB Nick Moody ... a victim of the roster numbers game; get something for him if we can but otherwise release him during training camp.

PART 3 -- POTENTIAL FREE AGENT ADDITIONS


It's conceivable that the Niners might add a veteran free agent or two to the roster for 2015, but my assumption is that they will want to get all of the 2013-14 draftees contributing before considering the vet FA route. IF they were to look at any outside free agents, the most likely signing IMO would be a veteran defensive lineman and/or cornerback. Here are several pending free agents to be considered:

  • DL Jared Odrick (Miami) ... compensation $2.8M in 2014
  • DL Cedric Thornton (Philadelphia) ... compensation $645K in 2014
  • CB Walter Thurmond (NY Giants) ... compensation $3.0M in 2014


PART 4 -- RESULTING DRAFT NEEDS AND POTENTIAL DRAFT PROSPECTS

Obviously it's far, far, far too early to start evaluating and ranking prospective draftees. However, it is not too early to start looking at possible candidates for the purpose of watching them in the second half of the collegiate season and bowl games. With that in mind, here are what I believe to be the Niners' likely positional needs in the 2015 draft and a very preliminary list of prospects, including the likely round that each will be selected in:


Wide Receiver


I believe that WR will be our biggest need in the draft because of the probable loss of Crabtree after this season, Boldin after the 2015 season, and Lloyd sometime in that timeframe. I'm fully aware of the FO's apparent difficulties in selecting WRs, but once again I believe that selecting a big, fast future #1 WR is important. Best 2015 prospects include:

  • Dorial Green-Beckham (Missouri/Oklahoma) 6'5"+ / 225# / 4.43 speed / Junior (Round 1)
  • Jaelen Strong (Arizona State) 6'4" / 215# / 4.46 speed / Redshirt Junior (Round 1-2)
  • Kevin White (West Virginia) 6'3" / 210# / 4.49 speed / Senior (Round 1-2)
  • DeVante Parker (Louisville) 6'3" / 210# / 4.48 speed / Senior (Round 2-3)
  • Ty Montgomery (Stanford) 6'2" / 215# / 4.46 speed / Senior (Round 1-2)

Quarterback


From a priority standpoint, QB doesn't deserve to be that high on the list. However, it's desirable to get a better-than-average prospect to develop and the best candidates will obviously go in the first few rounds. Best non-first-round prospects include:

  • Dak Prescott (Mississippi State) 6'1" / 235# / 4.65 speed / Redshirt Junior (Round 2)
  • Bryce Petty (Baylor) 6'3" / 230# / 4.64 speed / Redshirt Senior (Round 2-3)
  • Sean Mannion (Oregon State) 6'5" / 220# / 4.94 speed / Redshirt Senior (Round 4)
  • Bo Wallace (Mississippi) 6'4" / 217# / 4.74 speed / Senior (Round 4-5)
  • Connor Halliday (Washington State) 6'4" / 198# / 4.87 speed / Redshirt Senior (Round 6)

Offensive Guard


My assumption is that Mike Iupati will not be extended and that he will be replaced in the 2015 starting lineup at left guard by 2014-draftee Brandon Thomas. Joe Looney may be an adequate backup but I do not see him ever becoming a full-time starter. Alex Boone's current contract will expire after the 2016 season and he probably will want more money than the Niners are willling to pay. Accordingly, I believe that the Niners will draft an offensive guard in the 2015 draft to accomodate that eventuality. Best mid-round prospects include:

  • Tre' Jackson (Florida State) 6'4" / 335# / 5.38 speed / Senior (Round 2-3)
  • Aundrey Walker (Southern California) 6'6" / 318# / 5.21 speed / Senior (Round 3-4)
  • Laken Tomlinson (Duke) 6'3" / 320# / 5.23 speed / Redshirt Senior (Round 3-4)
  • Jarvis Harrison (Texas A&M) 6'3" / 325# / 5.27 speed / Redshirt Senior (Round 3-4)

Safety


Obviously there is not an immediate need for a starting-quality safety; however, I expect the Niners to look for Bethea's ultimate replacement in the 2015 draft. The three best non-first-round safety prospects include:

  • Durrell Eskridge (Syracuse) 6'3" / 203# / 4.50 speed / Redshirt Junior (Round 2-3)
  • Cody Prewitt (Mississippi) 6'2" / 217# / 4.59 speed / Senior (Round 2-3)
  • Kurtis Drummond (Michigan State) 6'1" / 200# / 4.58 speed / Redshirt Senior (Round 2-3)

Defensive Lineman


Again, no immediate need here, assuming that Carradine and Dial move up, but this is a case of keeping the pipeline loaded ... probably with a year 1 assignment to the Practice Squad to watch and learn. Later-round prospects include:

  • Nate Orchard (Utah) 6'4" / 255# / 4.76 speed / Senior (Round 3)
  • Trey Flowers (Arkansas) 6'4" / 267# / 4.82 speed / Senior (Round 3)
  • Preston Smith (Mississippi State) 6'5" / 267# / 5.02 speed / Senior (Round 4)
  • ZaDarius Smith (Kentucky) 6'5" / 264# / 4.84 speed / Senior (Round 5)
  • Henry Anderson (Stanford) 6'6" / 295# / 5.06 speed / Redshirt Senior (Round 5-6)

Tight End


Vernon Davis will become a free agent in 2016, when he will be 32 years old. As we all know, he wanted a contract extension before this year's training camp and didn't get it. As he has aged he has had injury issues and his production and catching ability, never great anyway, has waned ... perhaps in part because football is no longer the priority in his life that it was formerly. I just don't see extending his contract, and, I think that Vance McDonald's ability to replace Vernon as a starter is still in question. Accordingly, I think it's time to draft another TE to develop. This isn't a high priority but needs to be addressed. Best mid-round prospects include:

  • Jeff Heuerman (Ohio State) 6'5" / 255# / 4.75 speed / Senior (Round 3-4)
  • Rory Anderson (South Carolina) 6'5" / 235# / 4.70 speed / Senior (Round 4-5)

Kicker


Phil Dawson's cap hit is going to double to $4M+ in 2015. Given the cap pinch next year, I suppose that it's possible that Baalke could replace Dawson with a cheaper FA veteran if Phil was unwilling to renegotiate his salary. But, regardless of that outcome, it's probably time to consider adding a kicker draftee to the Practice Squad for the purpose of being mentored by a vet for a least a year. Interestingly, the nation's best collegiate kicker, a redshirt sophomore, may declare for the 2015 draft. Roberto Aguayo (Florida State / 6'1" / 212#) ... "enters his second (Sophomore) season as college football's top kicker looking to join former Seminole Sebastian Janikowski as the only repeat winners of the Lou Groza Award, given to the nation's top kicker. Has an explosive leg with impressive power and great accuracy." Aguayo's collegiate-career-to-date record through last Saturday: made 94 of 94 extra point attempts and 35 of 36 field goal attempts (including 5 for 5 from beyond 50 yards), IF he declares for the 2015 draft, I grab him ... if he can best Dawson or another vet, he gets the job; if not, I chance putting him on the Practice Squad and hope like hell that he doesn't get poached.



PART 5 -- PROJECTED 53-MAN ROSTER AT SEPTEMBER 1, 2015


Given all of my speculations above, here's how I see the 2015 season-opening roster shaping up:

  • Quarterbacks (3): Colin Kaepernick, Josh Johnson, Draftee (possibly Bryce Petty)
  • Running Backs (3): Carlos Hyde, Kendall Hunter, Marcus Lattimore
  • Fullbacks / H-Backs (2): Bruce Miller, Trey Millard
  • Wide Receivers (5-6): Anquan Boldin, Stevie Johnson, Bruce Ellington, Quinton Patton, Draftee (possibly Dorial Grenn-Beckham, Jaelen Strong or Kevin White), and possibly Brandon Lloyd
  • Tight Ends (3-4): Vernon Davis, Vance McDonald, Derek Carrier, and possibly Draftee (Rory Anderson)
  • Offensive Tackles (3): Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, Jonathan Martin
  • Offensive Guards (3-4): Alex Boone, Brandon Thomas, Joe Looney, Draftee (possibly Aundrey Walker or Laken Tomlinson)
  • Offensive Centers (2): Marcus Martin, Daniel Kilgore

  • Nose Tackles (2): Glenn Dorsey, Ian Williams
  • Defensive Linemen (6): Justin Smith, Tony Jerod-Eddie, Tank Carradine, Quinton Dial, Kaleb Ramsey, Draftee (possibly Nate Orchard or Trey Flowers)
  • Inside Linebackers (4): Patrick Willis, NoVorro Bowman, Michael Wilhoite, Chris Borland
  • Outside Linebackers (4): Aldon Smith, Dan Skuta, Aaron Lynch, Corey Lemonier
  • Safeties (4): Eric Reid, Antoine Bethea, L.J. McCray, Draftee (possibly Durrell Eskridge or Cody Prewitt)
  • Cornerbacks (5-6): Tramaine Brock, Parrish Cox, Jimmie Ward, Dontae Johnson, Keith Reaser, and possibly Ken Acker

  • Special Teams (3): Andy Lee, Kyle Nelson, Phil Dawson or Draftee Roberto Aguayo



PART 6 -- POTENTIAL COACHING CHANGES


Okay, as long as I'm here, I might as well give you my thoughts on the coaching situation ... since it is clear that the press is not about to leave that topic alone.


I honestly believe that Harbaugh's fate depends upon the ultimate outcome of this season. IF the Niners end up winning the Super Bowl, Harbaugh gets his big-dollar contract extension and everybody lives happily ever after. But this is the real world ... that may not happen. If it doesn't, I don't think that York/Baalke will let Harbaugh go into the final year of his present contract without some resolution ... I would hope that they could convince JH to sign an extension for say $6M per with an automatic increase to $8-9M per as soon as he wins a Super Bowl. Would he agree to do that? Maybe. But what if he won't? In that case, I don't think that York/Baalke would have any other viable option but to try to trade Jim to another team in exchange for draft choices ... they can't just let him walk away after the 2015 season.

Who are the possible takers? In order of probability, I think that it would be the Jets (Rex is surely gone and they'll want a big name and can afford to pay big dollars), the Dolphins (hard to believe that Philbin hasn't already been fired), the Falcons (I think that Mike Smith is gone at season's end), the Giants (if Coughlin, who is nearly 70, decides to retire after another disappointing season), and finally, the Raiders. Basically, then, it would be an auction situation ... trade to the highest bidder. JH, and especially his wife, probably won't like the idea of moving on with their young family when he is so close to the promised land with the team that he has ... but it will be his choice whether to stay for a less-than-gigantic extension or get traded. Who the hell knows what he'll choose to do?


IF Harbaugh chooses to get traded, who would be his logical replacement? Certainly Fangio and Roman (and maybe even Tomsula) would be considered. After spending some time thinking about it, my top two choices to replace Jim Harbaugh would be either David Shaw or John Harbaugh. Say what ... John Harbaugh? Yep. Why? I can't believe that he is real happy with the way that Steve Bisciotti, Richard Cass and Ozzie Newsome handled the whole Ray Rice fiasco ... Harbaugh wanted to release Rice immediately and was flatly overruled by the powers that be. Not fun to be on a different page from the rest of the management "team". And beside that, John could buy Jim's house and make the whole transition easier.




This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.