FanPost

Please don't sign Kaepernick (part 2)

So, I usually post over at Blazersedge, and wasn't expecting the welcomed debate to my original piece: http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/2/23/5440870/please-dont-sign-kaepernick

The piece originated from a debate on Sunday Feb. 23rd with a friend who is in the sign 'Kaep to any extension, whatever it takes' camp, and I don't feel I did a great job of explaining my position in the original post.

Here is my attempt to clarify my position.

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The question I'm posing is this:

Do the Niners have a better chance of succeeding in the next 3-5 years giving Kaepernick the proposed massive extension(in-line with other 'franchise' QBs) or not?

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The basis of my proposal is this off-season:

(1) Don't give Kaepernick a contract extension

(2) Spending 2 mid round picks on QB

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The Niners have tons of picks: http://overthecap.com/rookiepool2014.php?Team=49ers

The picks to look for using on the 2 QBs:

1st round/30th - 4yr/$7.1M
2nd round/24th - 4yr/$3.7M
2nd round/29th - 4yr/$3.5M
3rd round/12th - 4yr/$2.9M
3rd round/30th - 4yr/$2.8M
4th round/29th - 4yr/$2.6M

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We've seen a variety of thoughts on the length and amount for expected Kaepernick extension:

* Spotrac believes it will be 6 yr/$118M with $42M guaranteed ($19.7M/yr)
* Matt Maiocco believes the starting point is the Jay Cutler extension: 7yr/$126M, but really a $18M/yr deal for the first 3 seasons, with some additional money forcing them to restructure in 3 years ($18M/yr)
* Kawakami is hoping that Kaepernick would accept a 4yr/$62M deal ($16M/yr)
* Florio over a PFT believes that Kaepernick won't be signing for anything less than $18M/yr that is in line with the recent extensions
* NinersNation' own Brother Girth believes it will be around a 5yr/$86M ($17M/yr)

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So, it would seem that most experts are believing he's going to be getting an extension in the $15-22M/yr for 3-6 years.

Here's the rub: Does this provide the Niners with the best opportunity to win in the next few years?

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To start, I want to designate the 4 generational QBs from everyone else: Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees.

As some have pointed out, you don't know who is going to be the next QB to join the list ("Drew Brees wasn't even Drew Brees until he went to the Saints."). How do I know Colin Kaepernick isn't the next QB to join the list? How do I know Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, or Matthew Stafford isn't the next QB to join the list?

The crux of it is that I don't, and don't proclaim to know if Colin Kaepernick is going to be the next generational QB.

My argument is that the odds of Colin Kaepernick joining this group are significantly less than the odds of what I'm proposing. Clearly, there isn't any way to quantify these odds other than to speculate; thus if you believe Kaep is likely going to be in this group in the next 3-5 years; a member of the generational QB list, than this post isn't speaking to your beliefs.

As I mentioned in the comments of the original piece, I'm going to look very stupid if Kaepernick does end up being that generational QB and the Niners are stuck with 4 rookie QBs that are the next Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, Kirk Cousins, and Ryan Mallett as our QBs. However, just because a particular outcome happens doesn't mean that it was the best decision for the franchise.

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When you look at the achievements of those 4 QBs, it is simply stunning:

* Tom Brady has played in 5 Superbowls and 8 AFC Championship games in the past 13 seasons


* Peyton Manning has missed the playoffs once in his career. He's played in 3 Superbowls and 4 AFC Championship games in the past 11 seasons

* Drew Brees has a 100-58 record in the past decade. He has won 1 Superbowl, and played in 2 NFC Championship games in the 8 seasons with the Saints.

* Aaron Rodgers has a 58-29 record in his 6 seasons as a starter for GB. He's led the Packers to the playoff the past 5 seasons, and has a Superbowl win.

This is ignoring their clear statistical superiority with the rest of the league.

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So, if we exclude those 4 generational QBs, and now focus just on the other 'really good QBs' or the 'franchise QBs.'

Talent wise, I think this is where most of us believe Kaep belongs, somewhere in the top 5-15 QBs in the league.

These are the QBs that fit the logic: "The point is once you have a QB, you don't let them leave."

2014 cap hits:

Jay Cutler - $22.5M ($15.5M in 2015
Tony Romo - $21.8M ($25.2M in 2015)
Eli Manning - $20.4M ($19.8M in 2015)
Ben Roethlisberger - $18.9M ($18.4M in 2015)
Matt Ryan - $17.5M ($19.5M in 2015, $23.8M in 2016 and 2017)
Philip Rivers - $16.7M ($17.4M in 2015)
Matthew Stafford - $15.8M ($17.7M in 2015, $22.5M in 2016, $22M in 2017)
Joe Flacco - $14.8M ($14.6M in 2015, $28.6M in 2016 (with $28.8M in dead money, so cutting him would be worse), $31.2M in 2017)
Carson Palmer - $12M ($12M in 2015)

Assumed to be cut for cap purposes (but still fall under the logic: "once you have a QB, you don't let them leave"):

Sam Bradford - $17.6M -> $7.2M in dead money
Matt Schaub - $14.2M -> $10.5M in dead money
Mark Sanchez - $13.1M -> $4.8M in dead money

So, these 3 teams will be using ~$5-10M of their cap this year to pay a QB to not play for them. On the other hand, it will enable them to get out of these horrible contracts, and begin anew.

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One of the key points I want to make was that since the new CBA, playoff teams have come from one of two camps: either the team is led by a generational QB, or the team is led by a rookie QB.

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In 2013:

* all 4 generational QBs made the playoffs.

* 6 playoff teams had rookie contract QBs:

San Francisco(Colin Kaepernick)
Seattle(Russell Wilson)
Indianapolis(Andrew Luck)
Carolina(Cam Newton)
Cincinnati(Andy Dalton)
Philadelphia(Nick Foles)

* the other playoff teams:

Kansas City - Alex Smith($7.5M cap hit)
San Diego - Philip Rivers($13.8M cap hit)

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In 2012:

* 3 of the 4 generational QBs made the playoffs, with the lone exception being Drew Brees(see Sean Payton suspension.

* 6 playoff teams had rookie contract QBs:

San Francisco(Colin Kaepernick)
Seattle(Russell Wilson)
Cincinatti(Andy Dalton)
Minnesota(Christian Ponder)
Indianapolis(Andrew Luck)
Washington(RGIII)

* the other playoff teams

Houston Texans - Matt Schaub($11.7M cap hit)
Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco($8M cap hit)
Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan($13.4M cap hit)

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Why is it that the past 2 years have had so many teams lead by QBs on rookie contracts?

This wasn't the case for most of the past several decades.

Prior to the CBA with rookie-scaling, teams drafting QBs didn’t really have any advantage, regardless of where they were drafted. Now, teams are able to get their QB, at a cheap rate. This has led to the dramatic rise in playoff teams being lead by rookie QBs.

Previously, these rookie QBs who were being thrust onto the field, were being surrounded by similar talent as those teaams with veteran ‘franchise QBs’ With the new CBA, these rookie QBs are being thrust onto the field, but being surrounded by $15-20M more in talent, allowing them to have a higher success rate.

I’d argue that these rookie QBs are having more ‘success’ because they’re surrounded by more talent. I keep seeing people use Christian Ponder as an example of a QB that is a draft failure.

He did take the Vikings to playoffs last year. Would you rather be the Cowboys, and have Tony Romo, or be the Vikings and have Christian Ponder($2M) + AP + Jerome Simpson($3M) + …

And again, I don’t believe we can plug in any mid-round QB and expect him to be Kaep/Russell.

However, I expect that the odds the Niners are good in 2015 and 2016 are better with my proposal. If they *hit* with that mid-round QB, they will be a Superbowl contender. If they don't hit with any of the picks, then they won't be in playoff contention. However, with the evidence, I don't think the Niners are likely a playoff team with Kaepernick signed to a $15-20M/yr deal...

I think the odds are higher that the Niners can *hit* with a couple mid-round picks than they are with a 'franchise' QB being paid $15-20M/yr.

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So, besides the 4 generational QBs:

* no team with a QB with a cap hit over $13.8M has made the playoffs in the past 2 seasons.

* only 1/2 teams each year with a QB with a cap hit over $8M made the playoffs

* only 2/3 teams each year with a QB not on a non-rookie scale contract made the playoffs

* 6 teams each year with a QB on a rookie-scale contract have made the playoffs

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The rookie scale contracts has provided the league with cheap talent.

Every season, there is a certain amount of talent that is added to the league at every position.

Cam Newton(4yr/$22M)
Andrew Luck(4yr/$22.1M)
RGIII(4yr/$22.1M)
Colin Kaepernick(4yr/$5.2M)
Russell Wilson(4yr/$3.0M)
Andy Dalton(4yr/$5.2M)
Christian Ponder(4yr/$10.2M)

That's not to say that everyone of these rookies is going to be a star. Far from it.

Geno Smith(4yr/$3.1M)
Brandon Weedon(4yr/$7.5M)
EJ Manuel(4y/$8.9M)
Jake Locker(4yr/$12.6M)
Blaine Gabbert(4yr/$12.0M)
Ryan Mallett(4yr/$2.7M)
Kirk Cousins(4yr/$2.1M)
Brock Osweiler(4yr/$3.5M)

But, what I want to reiterate is that missing on a rookie QB doesn't hurt. It sucks that you lose the pick, but it doesn't hurt you the following season.

The teams with Gabbert, Manuel, Locker, Weedon, Geno, etc. have the ability to retry with little long-term impact. Missing on a rookie QB isn't a long-term issue.

Missing once you pay a QB, it does become a long-term issue. Ask the Rams, Jets, and Texans how thrilled they are to be eating those contracts. Each of those teams will be paying more to a QB to not play for them, than the Niners will be paying all 3 of their QBs that make the roster.

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So, if you look at the 3 categories of QBs (numbers are the playoff appearances in the past 2 seasons):

Elite HoF generational QBs: Peyton(2), Brady(2), Rodgers(2), Brees(1)

Veteran 'Franchise QBs': Flacco(1), Cutler, Romo, Stafford, Ryan(1), Eli Manning, Rivers(1), BigBen, Palmer, Schaub(1), Bradford, Sanchez

Rookie QBs: Russell(2), Kaep(2), Luck(2), Dalton(2), Newton(1), RGIII, Foles(1), Ponder(1), Geno, Manuel, Weeden, Gabbert, Locker, Tannehill.

And Alex Smith(1) as an anomaly: a veteran QB, but signed for a high end rookie-scaled money.

Lastly, I don't know how to categorize the Raiders, who paid Terrell Pryor, a veteran less than $800k this past year to be their QB; did draft a single 4th round QB in 2013, but that's the only draft capital they've spent on the QB spot in multiple years. They had Palmer one of the years, and the Cardinals had Kolb that year on a similar veteran level $10.5M cap hit deal.

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So,

(4) teams have HoF generational QBs

(12) teams have 'franchise QBs'

(14) teams have rookie QBs

(2) teams don't fit any of these categories

*Of note, Geno and Manuel were rookies this past season.

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So, the 14 starting QBs that have been drafted post 2011:

* 4 of the 14 have been to the playoffs twice in the past 2 years
(Kaep, Russell, Dalton, Luck)

* 4 of the 14 have been to the playoffs once in the past 2 years
(Newton, RGIII, Foles, Ponder)

* 6 of the 14 have not been to the playoffs in the past 2 years
(Tannehill, Weedon, Gabbert, Locker, Geno, Manuel)

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My argument isn't to claim that every team that plays a rookie QB, and thus has the extra $15-20M to spend on those other 50+ players, will make the playoffs.

My argument is to claim that every team that plays a non-generational QB, paid $15-20M/yr, won't make the playoffs.

Obviously there will be exceptions to the rule.

However, in my assessment, with the new CBA providing cheap talent at the QB position, it appears that the teams that make the playoffs are the ones who *hit* with the rookie QB, and have that extra $15-20M to spend on the talent around the QB.

It appears, when looking at the 2012 and 2013 playoff teams, that the teams that spent $120M on the 50+ non-QB players with a rookie QB did far better than those who spent $100M on the 50+ non-QB players with a 'franchise' QB.

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Now, to ask the question again:

Which path will the Niners have a higher likelihood of success?

(1) Paying Kaepernick a contract that is in-line with the recent 'franchise' QBs, with $110M on the 50+ non-QB players

(2) Drafting 2 rookie QBs to play behind Kaep this year(while paying him his $1.6M), and surrounding the future rookie QB with $127M on the 50+ non-QB players

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Is there any guarantee that the 2 players the Niners draft will work out?

No, it's incredibly hard to *hit* with a draft pick (which obviously applies to the QB spot).

Will it suck if the Niners don't hit? Yes.

However, we need to recognize that nothing is a guarantee. Whatever path the Niners go down, there is no guarantee of success or failure.

The question revolves around the odds. Which is more likely?

* Kaepernick turning into one of the generational QBs

* the Niners being able to *hit* with one of the 2 rookie QBs drafted to back up Kaepernick

My contention is that the Niners being able to draft someone to backup Kaep and succeed is more likely.

My contention is that the Niners have a better chance of doing the same thing they did with Kaep (2nd round pick to backup Alex Smith) and hitting is more likely than Kaepernick turning into a generational QB.

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Positive Side-effects/Non-central issues:

There are still a few 'outs' by not signing Kaepernick:

(1) We have the opportunity to draft another 2 QBs next season (giving us 4 rookie QBs signed for a combined ~5M/yr) to hopefully *hit*

(2) We still hold the franchise tag card for 2015 for Kaepernick (a 1yr/~$16M deal for 2015)

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The current market for veteran backups is still $2-4M/yr:

Matt Moore($5.5M/yr)
Matt Hasselbeck($3.6M/yr)
Ryan Fitzpatrick($3.2M/yr)
Kevin Kolb($3.0M/yr)
Shaun Hill($2.8M/yr)
Drew Stanton($2.7M/yr)
Bruce Gradkowski($1.8M/yr)
etc.

By having a stable of young QBs, with their lower end 'expected value' (not the absolute worse, but say the bottom 20-50% of picks having an 'expected value' of backup quality). We've now obtained our backup quality QB at several million per year less.

This is actually a substantial deal, as we've seen with the musical chairs that Harbaugh played last year, and the extra $3-5M difference the Niners have when comparing their roster' with the Cowboys/Dolphins/Vikings/etc.

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The Negatives:

However, there is a central argument against the proposal: The 4 year turnover at the QB spot.

I don't know what I'll argue in 4 years when the replacement QB is going into contract negotiations. What I do know is that I don't support giving Kaepernick a multi-year $15-20M contract. Perhaps the league will adjust to the new dynamic of the rookie scaling with QBs in the CBA; perhaps the league will adjust the market to not pay 'franchise' QBs quite so much.

I don't know the future; what I do believe, is that the Niners chances of success are greater without paying him an extension that is in-line with the current 'franchise QBs.'

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The use of several middle-round picks creates a 'hole in young talent elsewhere' and 'causes the Niners to use middle round picks with the expressed desire to not have one of them ever make the field.' I don't deny either of these, other than to say that I believe the benefits far outweigh these. The additional money in free agency should allow the Niners to sign an extra several quality players to counteract this 'hole.'

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In my initial piece, I didn't go into the quality of Kaepernick, because I was making the singular argument that unless your QB is a generational QB: Rodgers, Peyton, Brady or Brees, no QB is more beneficial than a rookie QB.

I'd be making the same argument if our QB was Cutler, Stafford, Romo, Flacco, etc.

Clearly, that rubs some people the wrong way(on both sides), as they can't separate the discussion of an extension from his talent/quality.

So, I will briefly discuss my thoughts on Kaepernick' talent. He's played in 32 games, and started 23 games.

First the negative:

In the regular season:

* He has 2 games with 300 yards passing
* He has 3 games with more than 2 passing Tds
* He has 4 games with more than 50 yards rushing (he's never had 100 yards rushing)
* He has 1 game with more than 1 rushing Td
* He has 12 games with 200 yards passing
* He has 10 games with more than 1 passing Td
* He has 18 fumbles

Those are his stats in 23 games started, and 32 games played (regular season).

Now the positive:

* He's 17-6 as a starter in the regular season
* He's 4-2 as a starter in the playoffs
* His 2 best games on the ground have come in the playoffs
* In the 2 seasons he's been at the helm, the Niners have made the NFC Championship both times, and the Superbowl in one of those years
* He only has 1 game with more than 1 interception in the regular season

So, he's got some good qualities, and some bad qualities.

There are those that will argue that he's a horrible passing QB and has the worse footwork in the league. I disagree.

There are those that will argue that the 49ers scheme is what limits Kaep' stats and not his talent. I disagree.

As with most things, I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

I don't think that he's anything special, and would rank him as a top 15 QB, but without question outside the top 10 current QBs.

I'd argue that those who state that the Niners scheme limits stats are actually arguing my point. What the Niners need is a QB that plays decently enough to run the offense, and doesn't make too many mistakes.

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For example, lets look at the only other QB to play in the Harbaugh scheme: Alex Smith.

With Harbaugh, Alex Smith's record was 19-5-1 as our QB.

That is very comparable to the record put up by Kaepernick of 17-6 as our QB.

Basic stats under Harbaugh, the QB Whisperer.


G GS Wins Loses Ties Cmp Att Yards TDs Int Sacks 4QC GWD Rush Att Rush Yards Rush TDs Fumbles
Alex Smith 2011 16 16 13 3 0 273 445 3144 17 5 44 6 6 52 179 2 7
Alex Smith 2012 10 9 6 2 1 153 218 1737 13 5 24 0 0 31 132 0 3
Alex Smith Career 26 25 19 5 1 426 663 4881 30 10 68 6 6 32 311 2 10
Alex Smith Per Game




16.4 25.5 187.7 1.15 0.38 2.62

1.23 11.96 0.076 0.38
Alex Smith Per Game Started




17.0 26.5 195.2 1.2 0.4 2.72

1.28 12.44 0.08 0.4

G GS Wins Loses Ties Cmp Att Yards TDs Int Sacks 4QC GWD Rush Att Rush Yards Rush TDs Fumbles
Colin Kaepernick 2011 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 35 0 0 0 0 0 2 -2 0 0
Colin Kaepernick 2012 13 7 5 2 0 136 218 1814 10 3 16 2 2 63 415 5 9
Colin Kaepernick 2013 16 16 12 4 0 243 416 3197 21 8 39 3 4 92 524 4 9
Colin Kaepernick Career 32 23 17 6 0 382 639 5046 31 11 55 5 6 157 937 9 18
Colin Kaepernick Per Game




11.9 20.0 157.7 0.97 0.34 1.72

4.9 29.3 0.28 0.56
Colin Kaepernick Per Game Started




16.6 27.8 219.4 1.35 0.48 2.40

6.8 40.7 0.39 0.78

Alex Smith' Passer Rating was 95.1 in the 26 games under Harbaugh.

Colin Kaepernick' Passer Rating is 93.8 in his 32 games under Harbaugh.

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Alex Smith had a ranking of 15th(2012) and13th(2011) in DVAR.

Colin Kaepernick had a ranking of 13th(2013) in DVAR.

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Alex Smith had a ranking of 9th(2012) and 14th(2011) in DVOA.

Colin Kaepernick had a ranking of 3rd(2013) in DVOA.

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With Alex Smith, the Niners lost in the NFC Championship game to the NY Giants 20-17.

With Colin Kaepernick, the Niners lost in the NFC Championship game to the Seattle Seahawks 23-17, and the Niners lost in the Superbowl to the Baltimore Ravens 34-31 (after winning the NFC Championship game 28-24).

All of these games were close, and I can't help but see parallels betwen the two QBs under Harbaugh.

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The questions I'm asking the sign 'Kaepernick to any contract' crowd:

(1) Why should we treat Colin Kaepernick' success under Harbaugh differently than we treated Alex Smith' success under Harbaugh?

(2) What is it about Colin Kaepernick' performances that make us believe that he is destined to be the next elite HOF QB? (The stats don't indicate that future, and his winning rate isn't different than Alex Smith with Harbaugh)

(3) There are those that argue that we have to keep Kaepernick because we need to ensure continuity on defense because 'our defense has started to show cracks' while 'hoping and praying that our defense stays healthy and intact?' Does the concept that we would have $15M less to sign talent (presumably some defensive talent) not help further the defense' 'demise?'

(4) By not signing him to an extension this offseason, we retain the right to sign him to a franchise tag 1yr/~$16M deal for 2015. For those worrying about what happens if the Niners don't *hit* with either of the picks, and can't live without a stable QB, it's not like we're throwing away Kaep completely with my proposal. Yes, we're risking his longterm contract value going up; but it's not like my proposed strategy is ever going to be to sign him to sed contract. Does having this option to franchise tag him give you more faith that this might be the right plan going forward?

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For reference (from the comment section).

AKFortyNiner added a bunch of interesting data:

"I took a look at what kind of talent was selected at QB in rounds 2, 3, or 4 back to the year 2000.

Round 2: 15 Selections
Geno Smith, Brock Osweiler, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jimmy Clausen, Pat White, Chad Henne, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Staton, Kellen Clemons, Tarvaris Jackson, Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Margues Tuiasosopo.

Hits: Colin Kaepernick, Drew Brees.
2/15 = 13% Chance of Hitting
Serviceable: Geno Smith, Andy Dalton, Kevin Kolb, (I’m being generous) Chad Henne.
4/15 = 33% Chance of being Serviceable
9/15 = 53% Chance of busting

Round 3: 18 Selections
Mike Glennon, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Ryan Mallett, Colt McCoy, Kevin O’Connell, Trent Edwards, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Matt Schaub, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Josh McCown, Giovanni Caramzzi, Chris Redman.

Hits: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
2/18 = 11% Chance of Hitting
Serviceable: Mike Glennon, Colt McCoy, …(I feel dirty saying it at this point) Matt Schaub
3/18 = 17% Chance of being Serviceable
13/18 = 72% Chance of busting

Round 4: 18 Selections
Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones, Kirk Cousins, Mike Kafka, Stephen McGee, Isaiah Stanback, Brad Smith, Kyle Orton, Stefan Lefors, Luke McCown, Senaca Wallace, David Garrard, Rohan Davey, Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfals, Jesse Palmer.

Hits: I struggle to call any of these hits.
0/ 18 = 0% Chance of Hitting
Serviceable: Kirk Cousins, Kyle Orton, David Garrard
3/18 = 17% Chance of being Serviceable
15/18 = 83% Chance of busting

Totals: 51 Selections
4/51 = 7.8% Chance of hitting
10/51 = 19.6% Chance of being Serviceable
37/51 = 72.5% Chance of busting

*Huge Caveats:
I am not a QB expert.
There is a lot of untested (in the NFL) talent listed here.
A QB’s production is affected by the team around them. I can’t say for sure that a bust would not be a star if the draft gods shuffled history.
I used my gut in determining which QB’s were hits, serviceable, or busts.
I didn’t spell check the names after I retyped them."

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So, the totals again:

Totals: 51 Selections
4/51 = 7.8% Chance of hitting
10/51 = 19.6% Chance of being Serviceable
37/51 = 72.5% Chance of busting

I don't think it's fair to judge those drafted in 2012 or 2013 that are backing up a superstar or 'franchise QB' as busts(and would prefer to keep them out of the totals.

Mallett→Brady
Osweiler→Peyton

Landry Jones(2013)→BigBen
Ryan Nassib(2013)→Eli Manning

So:

Totals: 47 Selections
4/47 = 8.5% Chance of hitting
10/47 = 21.3% Chance of being Serviceable
33/47 = 70.2% Chance of busting

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So, if we draft 2 qbs,

the probability one hits (8.5% + 8.5% – (8.5*8.5)) = 16.3% chance one of them is a ‘hit.’
the probability one is serviceable (21.3% + 21.3% – (21.3*21.3)) = 38.1% chance one of them is serviceable.

If one of them is a hit or serviceable(38.1% of the time), then the question is answered.

If one of them isn’t a hit or serviceable(61.9% of the time), then we have a decision to make.

We have the option to tag Kaep with a franchise tag, and try again.

The percentages are again the same in 2015, except now we’re paying Kaep the franchise tag of ~1yr/$16m + we have 4 qbs on rookie deals.

The percentages for the 2 year (all 4 qbs):

the probability one hits (16.3% + 16.3% – (16.3*16.3)) = 30.0% chance one of them is a ‘hit.’
the probability one is serviceable (38.1% + 38.1% – (38.1%*38.1%)) = 61.7% chance one of them is serviceable.

So, a 61.7% chance that we find a serviceable QB and are paying our QBs a combined $5M/yr in 2016-17,
and a 30% chance that we find a ‘hit’ like Kaep and are paying our QBs a combined $5M/yr in 2016-17.

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So, using these numbers:

16.3% of the time, we have a 'hit' with one of the two QB picks this year

21.8% of the time, we get a serviceable QB with one of the two picks this year

23.8% of the time, we are forced to draft the second set of QBs, but one the QBs ends up at least serviceable

38.3% of the time, we have drafted 4 QBs, and none of them are usable. Now that Kaep is finished with his franchise tagged year in 2015, the Niners are in an interesting quandary.

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So, who are the QBs that will be available:

Tajh Boyd (Has a similar draft profile as Russell Wilson: Virginian, undersized, ability to run/throw effectively, a winner.
Last 3 years of Wilson' college: 9765 yards, 92 TDs, 29 ints, 1033 rushing yards, 19 rush TDs.
Last 3 years of Boyd' college: 11575 yards, 103 TDs, 36 ints, 1132 rushing yards, 25 rush TDs).

Aaron Murray, Zach Mettenberger and Bryn Renner provide great options as they're worth is going to be severely impeded because of injury. If we're going to take 2 QBs, one of these might not be a horrible option.

Logan Thomas fits the mold of QBs capable of providing winning plays with their arm and legs.

AJ McCarron has won 3 BCS Championships.

Stephen Morris, James Franklin and Keith Price played for BCS schools and could generate some interest.

David Fales the local boy from San Jose St. He put up video game numbers the past two years.

Jimmy Garoppolo, Brett Smith, Keith Wenning, Jeff Matthews and Jordan Lynch could also provide interest, coming from smaller schools but with talents, to the QB Whisperer.

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For reference:

Superbowl Winning QBs:





Year Name Drafted Overall Pick Experience
2014 Russell Wilson 2nd Round 75 2nd season
2013 Joe Flacco 1st Round 18 5th season
2012 Eli Manning 1st Round 1 8th season
2011 Aaron Rodgers 1st Round 24 6th season(3rd as a starter)
2010 Drew Brees 2nd Round 32 9th season
2009 Big Ben 1st Round 11 5th season
2008 Eli Manning 1st Round 1 4th season
2007 Peyton Manning 1st Round 1 9th season
2006 Big Ben 1st Round 11 2nd season
2005 Tom Brady 6th Round 199 5th season
2004 Tom Brady 6th Round 199 4th season
2003 Brad Johnson 9th Round 227 9th season
2002 Tom Brady 6th Round 199 2nd season
2001 Trent Dilfer 1st Round 6 7th season
2000 Kurt Warner Undrafted N/A 2nd season(1st as a starter)
1999 John Elway 1st Round 1 16th season
1998 John Elway 1st Round 1 15th season
1997 Brett Farve 2nd Round 33 6th season(5th as a starter)
1996 Troy Aikman 1st Round 1 7th season
1995 Steve Young 1st Round 1 10th season
1994 Troy Aikman 1st Round 1 5th season
1993 Troy Aikman 1st Round 1 4th season
1992 Mark Rypien 6th Round 146 4th season
1991 Phil Simms 1st Round 7 13th season
1990 Joe Montana 3rd Round 82 11th season
1989 Joe Montana 3rd Round 82 10th season
1988 Doug Williams 1st Round 17 N/A
1987 Phil Simms 1st Round 7 9th season
1986 Jim McMahon 1st Round 5 12th season (8th as a starter)
1985 Joe Montana 3rd Round 82 6th season
1984 Jim Plunkett 1st Round 1 11th season
1983 Joe Theismann 4th Round 99 9th season (5th as a starter)
1982 Joe Montana 3rd Round 82 3rd season

It does seem like a substantial number of these QBs win their first Superbowl in the first 5 years of their careers.

---

Hearing what I want to hear, President Marathe:

"Later in the discussion, Marathe was asked more generally about the importance of a quarterback to a team's success.

'That's the single biggest differentiator,' he said. 'If you can get by with average talent, but if you have a superior quarterback, you'll see the best quarterbacks -- the Hall of Fame quarterbacks -- it doesn't matter what kind of talent they have, even if they have really bad talent around them, they're going to finish 7-9 [or] 8-8. They're never going to go 3-13.'"

http://espn.go.com/blog/san-francisco-49ers/post/_/id/5472/on-next-kaepernick-deal-and-advanced-data

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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