It's highly unlikely that Maurice Jones-Drew signs with the 49ers, but for the sake of argument I wanted to demonstrate how much clearly better MJD is than Frank Gore. I know that hurts, but its something that needs to be out there. .390 winning percentage for Jags over MJD's career. .506 winning percentage for Niners over Gore's career.
so I went to FootballOutsiders.com, which tracks DVOA and DYAR -- that controls for defense, situation, etc. you see results that I expected, but maybe not that many of you.
Career total DYAR for MJD? 1668 DYAR. Gore, 1316 DYAR. So, almost 25% more total DYAR. On a DYAR/touch basis, MJD is 50% better. (does not include targets, but DYAR takes incompletions into account)
In rushing, its, 921 rushDYAR for MJD, 924 rushDYAR for Gore. A wash with Gore having a second season and a lot more carries. BUT on a per carry basis, MJD is 20% better!
In receiving...wow. 747 recDYAR for MJD, 392 recDYAR for Gore. on a per catch basis, MJD is about 90% better. (does not include targets, but DYAR takes incompletions into account)
Its not really that close. If we signed MJD for cheap, dumped LMJ, then kept a MJD-Lattimore combo for 2015 and 2016, I wouldn't be mad. 2014 would be a ridiculous, historic backfield.