Analysis based on the following referenced information:
- David Fucillo’s article dated Feb. 25, 2014: Trent Baalke, Arm Length and 2014 Combine Measurements;
- Matthew Fairburn’s Top 200 Big Board, dated Feb. 24, 2014
The below analysis is based on taking ‘Arm Length’ as primary importance in determining player value, and in conjunction with using the above referenced 2014 Top 200 Draft ranking, formulate a value draft ranking order by player position that the San Francisco 49’ers could be considering. Keep in mind, Mr. Fucillo’s article did not include arm length ranking information on QB or RB positions, thus those positions are not included in the analysis, and to be realistic, one might think the Niners could pick a QB or an RB in this draft, so adjust your thinking accordingly.
Each round lists by order, the top arm length player by position, and then ranks the likely priority pick choice the Niners might consider in picking that player (i.e. to fill team needs). The symbol ‘PV’(i.e. poor value) is designated for those players who have a very low arm length rating compared to their peers in the position, but have a high draft ranking, while a ‘BV’(i.e. best value) symbol represents a player with a very high arm length rating that carries a fairly low draft ranking for that round. NA represents a player that based on the Niners pick # would not be available (i.e. not available). A ‘T’ represents a tie in that ranking.
Remember: Arm length rules !
Round 1 (Niners have 1 pick): ArmRank DraftRank NinerRank
DL Stephan Tuitt-Notre Dame 1 34 1
OLB Trent Murphy-Stanford 1 49 3
OT Greg Robinson- 2T 6 NA
OG Cyril Richardson-Baylor 2 40 2 (Iupati?)
OG David Yankey-Stanford 3T 42 2 (Iupati?)
FS Calvin Pryor-Louisville 3T 19 NA
CB Justin Gilbert-OK. ST. 2 38 2
CB Bradley Roby-Ohio ST. 6 32 PV
SS Jimmie Ward-N.Ill. 3 45 PV
WR Mike Evans-Texas A&M 1 12 NA
WR Kelvan Benjamin-Florida 2 35 2
WR Jordan Matthews-Vanderbilt 4T 37 2(BV)
WR Marquis Lee – USC 9 33 2
Observations: The Niners have voiced a need for 4 of the positions above but with no priorities noted by them. Depending on CAP signings; FA’s; and specific skill sets of each player; it’s easy to say that anyone of the above would likely be good choices – we just don’t know in what priority they want them. Based on this analysis though, what does stand out to me as a #1 pick, is DL Stephan Tuitt, who can play either DT or DE (future replacement to Justin Smith(?)), and he is rated #1 in his position for arm length. With arm length that rules, he gets my vote for pick numero uno! (even though he’ll probably only be a situational player this season). What could change this pick is OG Iupati’s final disposition with the Niners and if they do not think Kilgore or Looney could handle the load at OG – then that becomes the #1 pick.
Note: with Tuitt’s recent small foot fracture occurance in the combine, it will be difficult for the Niners to determine whether he might drop further in the draft. Even knowing about his foot fracture, his rating in this post combine still ranks him #34 – that might mean something to those who really are in the know.
Round 2 (Niners have 2 picks):
CB Kyle Fuller-Virginia Tech 4 55 2
CB Marcus Roberson-Florida 7 65 PV
SS Deone Buchannon-Wash. ST. 1 52 1
SS Ahmad Dixon-Baylor 2 57 2
WR Brandon Coleman-Rutgers 3 54 2
WR Davante Adams-Fresno ST. 5 55 2
WR Donte Montcreif-Ole Miss 6 51 2
WR Jarvis Landry-LSU 10 52 PV
Observations: If the Niners did not opt for a SS/CB or WR in Rd 1, then they may choose to split the baby here, one pick SS/CB; one pick WR. Since you have a top arm length man in SS D. Buchannon and he is on the board, it sure seems appropriate he is one of the picks (this assumes the Niners want an SS vs.a FS). If the Niners really wanted to go all out for their offense this year, and plan for replacing Crab and Boldin for 2015, they could pull the plug for 2 WR’s, as they are probably the best ones to fit their scheme and be useful to play this season. Also, if they trade #3 picks (you’ll see why in a moment) to move up here in Rd 2 to get an additional pick(s), then ideally a SS and 2 WR’s could be in play.
Round 3 (Niners have 3 picks-trade anyone?):
OLB Devon Kennard-USC 2T 80
ILB Chris Borland-Wisconsin 5 74
OL JaWuan James-Tenn. 1T 89
CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste-Nebraska 5 95
FS Dion Bailey-USC 2 82
Observations: As you can see, the Niners based on arm length analysis and draft ranking to date, do not have too much to look at in Rd 3. If in fact arm length and any analysis similar to this is similar to their thinking, they will be using Rd 3 picks to maneuver trades. In reality, I don’t see a ‘need’ pick here important enough to warrant using the pick in Rd 3 except for maybe FS Dion Bailey, and this assumes the Niners want an FS, in so they could move Reid to his natural position of SS. I do not see the Niners taking both an SS and FS in this draft, so if they have taken an SS sooner(i.e. Buchannon), then Bailey most likely is a mute-point here and now.
Round 4 (Niners have 1 pick):
DL Kareem Martin-N/C 2 115(BV)
DL Ed Stinson-Stanford 4 127
OL Billy Turner-N.Dakota ST. 3T 130
OL/C Travis Swanson-Ark. ST. 5 116
CB Pierre Desir-Lindenwood 3 101(BV)
SS Craig Loston-LSU 4 109
WR Martavis Bryant-Clemson 5T 118
Observations: DL Kareem Martin is a good value here if available and the Niners want to look at more DEF beef (no Tuitt pick) since he is rated #2 on arm length. If though, the Niners still haven’t chosen a CB; or, SS; or, Center at this point, they maybe doing just that.
Round 5 (Niners have 1 pick):
OL/C Weston Richburg-Col. ST. 4T 143
OL/C Marcus Martin-USC 3 152
WR Robert Herron-Wyoming 11 153
Obervations: Fill in where appropriate for need. It’s also possible Niners may reach to Rd 6 at this point for a player as well.
Round 6 (Niners have 1 pick):
DL Ryan Carrethers-Ark. ST. 5 200+
OG Trai Turner-LSU 3 178 (BV)
CB Keith McGill-Utah 1 171 (BV)
WR Mike Davis-Texas 7T 166
WR Cody Hoffman-BYU 4T 200+
Observations: This round along with Round 7 are developmental pick players. Because of their decent arm length ratings, OG Turner, CB McGill, and possibly WR Hoffman may get considered here.
Most of the real meat that the Niners could use for position need fills seem to be in Rd 1 and Rd 2. I expect the Niners to trade their Rd 3 picks to move up. If they want an expected high impact pick, they may even package something to go high in Rd 1, but from a value perspective for what they need, I see them filling Rd 2 with more picks and looking to fill 2015 with more picks. I see them walking away with about 6 or 7 player picks this year.
Any surprises for you to think about???