The NFL will announce compensatory picks for the 2014 NFL Draft when they meet later next month for the league's annual meeting. While we don't know "for certain" what comp pick the 49ers will be assigned, there are folks who have become veritable experts on the subject. One such person is Craig Turner, who provided the information for Jimmy Kempski of Philly.com (formerly proprietor of Blogging The Beast).
Last season, Craig correctly nailed 24 of the comp picks to the round, and was one round off on five of the picks. The NFL does not make the comp pick formula available, so it has been a trial and error process. But Craig has reached a point where he's getting as close as a non-NFL person is going to get.
According to Craig, the 49ers will get a fourth round comp pick, courtesy of the loss of free safety Dashon Goldson. The initial talk was for a third round pick, but several of you were spot on as well in projecting a fourth round pick.
According to AdamJT13, here are the rules that impact comp picks:
1. Lost players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs do not qualify.
2. Lost players that were picked up during the season the year before do not qualify.
3. Signed players that are released before midseason do not qualify.
4. Players earning low minimum salaries do not qualify.
5. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.
6. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.
Here are the quick numbers on 49ers free agents lost vs. 49ers free agent additions:
Of all those players signed, Craig Dahl is really the only one who truly leaves me scratching my head. He was a part of a strong group of special teams players, but given that he wasn't able to contribute much as a safety, maybe the 49ers could have done better. The Skuta signing left some fans scratching their heads, but he proved quite valuable as a special teamer and as a reserve outside linebacker. Corey Lemonier did great work as a reserve as well, so I suppose the team could have considered other options, but the team got its money's worth from Skuta.
Last year, the 49ers had one fourth and two seventh round compensatory picks. They ended up using that fourth on Marcus Lattimore. Once again, it's worth noting that teams cannot trade comp picks. It does create room to move other picks, but comp picks cannot be moved.
Here is a rundown of the 49ers potential 12 picks in the upcoming draft:
1. First round: own - No. 30
2. Second round: Chiefs (Alex Smith trade) - No. 24 (No. 56 overall)
3. Second round: own - No. 29 (No. 61 overall)
4. Third round: Titans (2013 draft trade) - No. 13 (No. 77 overall)
5. Third round: own - No. 30 (No. 94 overall)
6. Fourth round: own - No. 29
7. Fourth round: Compensatory based on Dashon Goldson departure and free agency equation
8. Fifth round: own - No. 30
9. Sixth round: own - No. 29
10. Seventh round: Saints (Parys Haralson trade) - No. 27
11. Seventh round: Panthers (Colin Jones trade) - No. 28
12. Seventh round: own - No. 30
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