Earlier this week, I posted the latest results from Mel Kiper and Todd McShay's latest mock drafts for the 2014 NFL Draft. It is interesting to see how the so-called experts view the needs of each team, as well as how they are valuing certain players. They will project out a variety of mock drafts, and once the draft hits, we are quick to forget about those mocks.
NOT SO FAST, MY FRIENDS!
Over at Philly.com, yesterday they took a look back at mock drafts a variety of "experts" put together about a year ago this week. The idea was to see how accurate they were, but in posting them, we get a little bit of humor and intriguing consideration to take away.
When they posted their mocks this time last year, Mel Kiper's ended up with zero correct picks, missing out by an average of 19.1 draft spots, while Todd McShay actually had the most correct picks with two, and fared third best among their mock drafters. Both mocks linked are from February 7 of last year.
For those wondering, Kiper projected Georgia defensive tackle John Jenkins to the 49ers, and had only safeties Kenny Vaccaro and Matt Elam going in the first round; no Eric Reid. Here was his analysis for the 49ers mocked pick of Jenkins:
The current construct of the Niners' roster really offers them a great chance to maximize value, and getting a player like Jenkins this far down the board would represent a lot of value. I also think San Francisco should be conscious of depth and age on the defensive line. We saw how diminished the pass rush was when Justin Smith wasn't healthy, and that's because Smith simply eats up blockers. Jenkins can do the same, though he's certainly no proxy for Smith. But at 359 pounds, he can really move.
McShay had the 49ers selecting Tennessee wide receiver Justin Hunter. The only safety he mocked in the first round was Kenny Vaccaro. Here was his analysis for the 49ers mocked pick of Hunter:
Nose tackle is a possibility here, but wide receiver is a legitimate need for the 49ers with bothRandy Moss and Ted Ginn scheduled to hit free agency. The team would like A.J. Jenkins to become a difference-maker in the slot, but San Francisco needs another outside weapon who can take advantage of QB Colin Kaepernick's strong arm. Hunter's hands are a bit inconsistent, but he is a smooth athlete who runs good routes and can make plays downfield.
Hunter ended up going to the Titans with the second pick of the second round, while Jenkins went to the Saints with the 20th pick of the 3rd round. It is an interesting coincidence that the Titans acquired that pick FROM the 49ers, who had acquired it from the Chiefs in the Alex Smith trade. Random, but interesting.
I realize the mock drafts are meant for discussion as much as anything, but Mel Kiper had one first round mock pick in particular that probably catches some of our fancy:
I'm sure ak4niner likes seeing that first round projection from last year! I'd love to see how many other mocks considered Quinton Patton a first round talent at some point last year. Ideally Patton will prove the projected value right in the coming season.
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