FanPost

Niners are positioning to make a big move up in the draft

They have addressed nearly every single need in FA and are still looking around for a corner and maybe a RB. We have 5 picks in the first 3 rounds and will have 7 in the first 4 rounds after we pick up a comp. For a team that is pretty much set at all spots - corner/nickel is really the only position that needs to be addressed IMO - we have a ridiculous amount of picks.

With few to possibly no real needs to be addressed through the draft (always areas to add depth or look to upgrade, but this is much different than a need), there are 4 possibilities:

1) Trade for future picks - in a 'normal' year, this would be a very strong strategy, and I'm guessing it is done to a degree on draft day if an offer arises that is too good to pass up. However, this year's draft class is absolutely stacked with an exceptional amount of talent, especially in the first three rounds. We also saw a record number of underclassmen declare - almost 100 total - meaning next year's senior class will be much weaker than normal. I think this strategy will be implemented minimally in the first 4 rounds and only when a fantastic opportunity arises, although they could pawn off some later picks more easily.

2 & 3) Trade back for more picks in this draft or stay put - both of these strategies would be the wise move to make for a majority of teams come draft day. Grabbing 2 players they rate as 8.2/10 and 7.4/10 by giving up a spot where you could have taken a 8.6/10 guy is a win for almost any team in the League. Our Niners, however, are one of the few exceptions to this rule because of the fact that our roster is absolutely stacked. Every extra guy we draft at most positions who is not exceptional is either a very minimal upgrade, a backup, or not going to make the 53. And every player that is drafted that makes the final 53 means that another really good player will not and will get picked up by somebody else. Teams like Oakland and Dallas should be optimizing their ability to trade down in this deep, talented draft because they're replacing a bunch of 5s and 4s and worse, whereas we're replacing 6s and sometimes better. Unless a deal is too good to pass up (or involves trading up into the future as stated above) I think we pass on these strategies)

4) That leaves packaging picks to move up. It's the strategy that makes the most sense, and one that should be easy enough to accomplish this year. As we saw when we gave up a 3rd to grab Reid last year, an exceptional talent that we really want is better to a team with a stacked roster than 1 slightly lesser guy (safety available at 30) and another guy who is likely a minimal upgrade that bumps out another talented guy off the 53 man roster or doesn't make it. Our Niners will make at least one move up in the 1st to get ahead of Carolina and New Orleans (who have similar needs) at a minimum, with a strong possibility that they move ahead of Baltimore and NYJ to get an even better talent and it is even a very real, plausable scenario to think they trade with or jump ahead of Detroit/Buffalo to grab a top guy like Evans or Gilbert.

Anyways I just thought I'd share the conclusion I came to about this upcoming draft now that we've made the FA moves we've made and why. What do you think? Is there a hole in my logic I've overlooked and, if so, what is it? And who do you think we go for if we do make a big move up? I suspect it's Evans, but this post is long enough so I'll tell why in the comments below

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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