FanPost

Percentage of Cap Dedicated to the QB Position


So, I got a bit sidetracked last night, and ended up looking at quarterbacks and how many franchises they've beaten: http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/3/3/5465290/completing-the-cycle

However, I did want to return to a set of questions posed in the my post about Kaep' extension: http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/2/25/5448224/please-dont-sign-kaepernick-part-2

At what point does the ‘QB percentage of cap’ become detrimental to a teams’ playoff percentages, Superbowl appearance percentages, Superbowl winning percentages? At what point in the ‘QB percentage of cap’ does the likelihood of any of those become so small that it’s more likely to find a ‘hit’ or ‘serviceable’ QB in the draft? Is there even a point where the 'QB percentage of cap' has a negative impact?

There doesn't appear to be a public database that has all of the historical salary cap data, so my data is a conglomeration of information from overthecap.com, spotrac.com and ianwhetshone.com. I understand that the information is probably both inaccurate and incomplete. However, it's the best information I could acquire and I'm curious about the results. If anyone has more accurate information, please point me in the right direction.

I also want to state that the ability to spread cap hits out over multiple years, allowing for a quarterback to count for only $4M this year and $10M the next, does provide noise to the data. However, I'm not sure how I'd eliminate this noise; perhaps another set of data based off the average value of the contract would be useful to investigate?

To start, I'm just going to list the cap space used by each team from 2006-2013 on the QB spot and the total cap space they used (most of the time, all NFL teams do have the same cap number, but there is the ability to carry over cap space from year to year, there were to deductions to the Cowboys/Redskins for their 'illegal' use during the 'uncapped year' in 2010, etc. so not all teams always have the same cap. Because of this, I felt that it would be most interesting to look at the percentage used by a franchise on their QB of the total amount that franchise spent that year):


2006 QB Cap 2006 Total 2007 QB Cap 2007 Total 2008 QB Cap 2008 Total 2009 QB Cap 2009 Total 2010 QB Cap 2010 Total 2011 QB Cap 2011 Total 2012 QB Cap 2012 Total 2013 QB Cap 2013 Total
San Francisco 5.612 100.297 5.747 109.423 12.614 116.579 8.165 127.562 12.367 132.097 6.208 103.468 11.057 120.079 2.843 123.652
Arizona 7.031 99.043 13.736 107.32 8.721 113.098 15.131 123.66 4.461 94.694 6.773 120.715 11.502 109.657 6.173 121.033
Atlanta 13.935 101.006 12.467 108.818 14.881 111.514 20.604 123.147 15.204 122.227 16.523 119.183 14.432 122.021 10.38 119.888
Baltimore 6.059 101.187 8.139 108.707 7.872 115.255 10.73 124.813 7.783 125.397 6.149 113.753 8.584 119.815 7.381 122.243
Buffalo 5.279 98.51 4.973 108.112 4.949 111.048 3.884 119.745 3.955 107.879 8.567 98.746 10.35 115.11 4.664 115.667
Carolina 5.988 100.131 12.062 108.615 14.865 115.294 11.399 126.238 19.519 110.354 5.78 116.277 7.909 126.512 7.514 113.74
Chicago 4.622 99.412 5.537 109.288 8.211 116.231 12.738 122.204 10.404 125.31 9.998 121.726 14.939 135.175 11.276 127.139
Cincinnati 14.305 101.521 14.244 106.626 15.292 106.049 16.622 121.103 13.79 105137 2.948 103.172 3.185 106.632 2.761 126.669
Cleveland 3.225 102.03 5.708 107.432 5.861 111.491 12.46 117.598 12.719 129.853 4.429 111.764 5.679 102.296 4.171 112.406
Dallas 9.673 101.277 11.502 108.855 8.025 116.004 7.916 123.835 15.623 169.011 10.223 109.84 12.325 127.105 13.819 118.165
Denver 8.987 100.134 12.192 105.481 5.74 115.818 8.878 117.543 5.397 108.191 11.598 92.847 23.348 103.045 18.716 133.692
Detroit 12.856 101.597 5.417 107.783 8.269 114.239 9.98 125.682 16.233 127.171 9.974 114.744 21.073 115.262 21.557 120.49
Green Bay 14.504 95.478 16.816 105.783 16.271 115.367 11.373 117.935 7.12 145.898 8.579 114.662 8.511 116.681 13.013 121.896
Houston 8.993 101.135 10.043 108.147 7.887 115.668 13.801 123.839 10.48 126.826 13.311 118.69 13.816 117.575 11.756 123.687
Indianapolis 11.118 100.318 9.783 106.461 19.542 115.923 22.877 125.321 19.867 137.982 19.788 116.862 22.192 113.654 8.525 124.708
Jacksonville 8.413 101.828 4.854 108.279 16.858 115.885 11.21 110.963 12.371 94.694 3.939 87.882 5.868 96.964 8.348 127.606
Kansas City 9.379 98.876 4.472 109.197 7.658 93.846 17.366 119.025 14.12 101.872 9.616 94.965 8.104 94.735 10.708 136.03
Miami 4.889 99.639 10.276 108.015 11.523 115.269 10.073 127.484 5.142 129.792 3.728 115.972 7.218 109.167 5.859 111.612
Minnesota 8.862 101.653 3.664 111.445 3.289 116.704 15.392 126.555 18.184 147.173 7.811 118.013 3.814 112.792 9.124 129.256
New England 14.381 102.588 8.121 108.844 15.959 117.317 15.426 125.241 17.886 132.809 14.27 113.237 8.76 127.621 14.604 123.728
New Orleans 11.742 98.105 8.299 107.017 17.944 114.975 12.721 124.653 12.887 141.843 15.496 122.53 10.4 104.146 18.193 123.628
NY Giants 8.521 101.492 11.795 106.704 15.279 114.799 15.514 126.206 15.358 131.078 17.675 129.112 10.205 121.22 22.618 124.012
NY Jets 8.826 100.443 8.318 108.107 16.408 116.901 7.291 127.033 11.974 138.757 20.418 119.337 10.934 126.557 14.759 123.431
Oakland 8.156 98.84 9.858 111.406 6.487 117.01 14.895 123.939 25.304 137.556 8.661 116.201 4.382 113.21 1.147 122.677
Philadelphia 10.836 101.186 11.007 106.376 11.615 114.492 26.741 125.296 15.778 136.275 24.317 113.978 15.286 98.857 13.385 128.922
Pittsburgh 7.197 101.64 5.675 107.231 10.415 114.673 14.236 125.749 13.649 129.412 15.455 119.774 10.214 121.583 15.393 121.606
San Diego 6.807 99.468 13.04 108.8 11.33 113.992 15.08 126.965 15.591 113.233 16.1 118.229 16.568 118.94 15.997 121.243
Seattle 8.459 97.67 10.963 108.502 12.599 115.476 11.939 126.419 11.593 145.808 7.625 98.204 5.76 107.634 1.521 134.016
St. Louis 9.468 99.849 14.698 108.356 12.67 116.607 11.83 125.218 12.586 115.025 14.553 115.283 16.507 119.784 13.423 122.2
Tampa Bay 7.889 93.231 7.596 107.055 8.856 116.107 12.939 100.178 5.771 95.898 2.901 92.426 8.915 110.033 1.184 127.838
Tennessee 19.687 99.574 6.207 105.565 7.395 112.86 11.682 115.501 22.325 124.568 13.707 111.522 10.929 108.641 6.337 128.544
Washington 8.838 100.96 6.668 110.304 7.267 114.366 6.204 127.586 29.033 204.392 2.134 107.092 5.648 116.705 5.973 109.092

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Now to look at the years in detail:

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2013 (with the 4 generational QBs removed):


2013 QB Cap 2013 Total Percentage Record Playoffs
Tampa Bay 1.184 127.838 0.93% 4-12
Oakland 1.147 122.677 0.93% 4-12
Seattle 1.521 134.016 1.13% 13-3 Champion (3-0)
Cincinnati 2.761 126.669 2.18% 11-5 WC (0-1)
San Francisco 2.843 123.652 2.30% 12-4 Conf Championship (2-1)
Cleveland 4.171 112.406 3.71% 4-12
Buffalo 4.664 115.667 4.03% 6-10
Tennessee 6.337 128.544 4.93% 7-9
Arizona 6.173 121.033 5.10% 10-6
Miami 5.859 111.612 5.25% 8-8
Washington 5.973 109.092 5.48% 3-13
Baltimore 7.381 122.243 6.04% 8-8
Jacksonville 8.348 127.606 6.54% 4-12
Carolina 7.514 113.74 6.61% 12-4 Division (0-1)
Indianapolis 8.525 124.708 6.84% 11-5 Division (1-1)
Minnesota 9.124 129.256 7.06% 5-10-1
Kansas City 10.708 136.03 7.87% 11-5 WC (0-1)
Atlanta 10.38 119.888 8.66% 4-12
Chicago 11.276 127.139 8.87% 8-8
Houston 11.756 123.687 9.50% 2-14
Philadelphia 13.385 128.922 10.38% 10-6 WC (0-1)
St. Louis 13.423 122.2 10.98% 7-9
Dallas 13.819 118.165 11.69% 8-8
NY Jets 14.759 123.431 11.96% 8-8
Pittsburgh 15.393 121.606 12.66% 8-8
San Diego 15.997 121.243 13.19% 9-7 Division (0-1)
Detroit 21.557 120.49 17.89% 7-9
NY Giants 22.618 124.012 18.24% 7-9

General notes:

* 15 teams used less than 7% of their cap on their QBs (5 of the 15 teams, 33%) made the playoffs, and they went a combined 6-4 in the playoffs

* 13 teams used more than 7% of their cap on their QBs (3 of the 13 teams, 23%) made the playoffs, and they went a combined 0-3 in the playoffs

* With out exception, all 8 teams that used 10% of their cap on their QB had a record of at least 7-9

* 13 of the 15 teams that used aat least 6.6% of their cap on their QB had a record of at least 7-9

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2012 (with the 4 generational QBs removed):


2012 QB Cap 2012 Total Percnetage Record Playoffs
Cincinnati 3.185 106.632 2.99% 10-6 WC (0-1)
Minnesota 3.814 112.792 3.38% 10-6 WC (0-1)
Oakland 4.382 113.21 3.87% 4-12
Washington 5.648 116.705 4.84% 10-6 WC (0-1)
Seattle 5.76 107.634 5.35% 11-5 Division (1-1)
Cleveland 5.679 102.296 5.55% 5-11
Jacksonville 5.868 96.964 6.05% 2-14
Carolina 7.909 126.512 6.25% 7-9
Miami 7.218 109.167 6.61% 7-9
Baltimore 8.584 119.815 7.16% 10-6
Tampa Bay 8.915 110.033 8.10% 7-9
Pittsburgh 10.214 121.583 8.40% 8-8
NY Giants 10.205 121.22 8.42% 9-7
Kansas City 8.104 94.735 8.55% 2-14
NY Jets 10.934 126.557 8.64% 6-10
Buffalo 10.35 115.11 8.99% 6-10
San Francisco 11.057 120.079 9.21% 11-4-1 Superbowl (2-1)
Dallas 12.325 127.105 9.697% 8-8
Tennessee 10.929 108.641 10.06% 6-10
Arizona 11.502 109.657 10.49% 5-11
Chicago 14.939 135.175 11.05% 10-6
Houston 13.816 117.575 11.75% 12-4 Division (1-1)
Atlanta 14.432 122.021 11.83% 13-3 Conf Championship (1-1)
St. Louis 16.507 119.784 13.78% 7-8-1
San Diego 16.568 118.94 13.93% 7-9
Philadelphia 15.286 98.857 15.46% 4-12
Detroit 21.073 115.262 18.28% 4-12
Indianapolis 22.192 113.654 19.53% 11-5 WC (0-1)

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2011 (with the 3 generational QBs removed, Peyton sat out):


2011 QB Cap 2011 Total Percentage Record Playoffs
Washington 2.134 107.092 1.99% 5-11
Cincinnati 2.948 103.172 2.85% 9-7 WC (0-1)
Tampa Bay 2.901 92.426 3.13% 4-12
Miami 3.728 115.972 3.21% 6-10
Cleveland 4.429 111.764 3.96% 4-12
Jacksonville 3.939 87.882 4.48% 5-11
Carolina 5.78 116.277 4.97% 6-10
Baltimore 6.149 113.753 5.40% 12-4 Conf Championship (1-1)
Arizona 6.773 120.715 5.61% 8-8
San Francisco 6.208 103.468 5.99% 13-3 Conf Championship (1-1)
Minnesota 7.811 118.013 6.61% 3-13
Oakland 8.661 116.201 7.45% 8-8
Seattle 7.625 98.204 7.76% 7-9
Chicago 9.998 121.726 8.21% 8-8
Buffalo 8.567 98.746 8.67% 6-10
Detroit 9.974 114.744 8.69% 10-6 WC (0-1)
Dallas 10.223 109.84 9.30% 8-8
Kansas City 9.616 94.965 10.12% 7-9
Houston 13.311 118.69 11.21% 10-6 Division (1-1)
Tennessee 13.707 111.522 12.29% 9-7
Denver 11.598 92.847 12.49% 8-8 Division (1-1)
St. Louis 14.553 115.283 12.62% 2-14
Pittsburgh 15.455 119.774 12.90% 12-4 WC (0-1)
San Diego 16.1 118.229 13.62% 8-8
NY Giants 17.675 129.112 13.68% 9-7 Champions (4-0)
Atlanta 16.523 119.183 13.86% 10-6 WC (0-1)
Indianapolis 19.788 116.862 16.93% 2-14
NY Jets 20.418 119.337 17.11% 8-8
Philadelphia 24.317 113.978 21.33% 8-8

I do want to note the CBA change (rookie-scaling) (thought that shouldn't matter for the current discussion).

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2010 (with the 4 generational QBs removed):

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2009 (with the 4 generational QBs removed):

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2008 (with the 4 generational QBs removed):

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2007 (with the 3 generational QBs removed):

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2006 (with the 3 generational QBs removed):

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So, taking a look at the 2014 season, and what franchises are currently using of their cap for their QBs (Percentage assumes everyone is going to spend $133M):


2014 QB Cap QB Cap Percentage
San Francisco 2.247 1.69%
Arizona 15.263 11.48%
Atlanta 18.502 13.91%
Baltimore 15.891 11.95%
Buffalo 7.491 5.63%
Carolina 7.434 5.59%
Chicago 22.92 17.23%
Cincinnati 3.679 2.77%
Cleveland 7.2 5.41%
Dallas 26.15 19.66%
Denver 18.966 14.26%
Detroit 16.397 12.33%
Green Bay 18.545 13.94%
Houston 15.311 11.51%
Indianapolis 10.274 7.72%
Jacksonville 4.896 3.68%
Kansas City 11.898 8.95%
Miami 8.955 6.73%
Minnesota 3.232 2.43%
New England 15.738 11.83%
New Orleans 18.895 14.20%
NY Giants 21.008 15.79%
NY Jets 14.736 11.08%
Oakland 1.978 1.49%
Philadelphia 1.835 1.38%
Pittsburgh 21.333 16.04%
San Diego 17.176 12.91%
Seattle 1.312 0.99%
St. Louis 17.61 13.24%
Tampa Bay 1.275 0.96%
Tennessee 8.624 6.48%
Washington 6.448 4.85%

It's way to early to start making predictions based off these numbers, because we don't know what will change in free agency and the draft.

Just a note though, these percentages seem much higher on the whole.

Let's group the teams.

Group 1 (Teams with a generational quarterback)(4 teams): Patriots(11.83%), Packers(13.94%), New Orleans(14.21%), and Denver(14.26%).

Group 2 (Teams using less than 5% of their cap on their QB)(9 teams): Tampa Bay(0.96%), Seattle(0.99%), Philadelphia(1.38%), Oakland(1.49%), San Francisco(1.69%), Minnesota(2.43%), Cincinnati(2.77%), Jacksonville(3.68%), Washington(4.85%),

Group 3 (Teams using between 5% and 9% of their cap on their QBs)(7 teams): Cleveland(5.41%), Carolina(5.59%), Buffalo(5.62%), Tennessee(6.48%), Miami(6.73%), Indianapolis(7.72%), and Kansas City(8.95%).

Group 4 (Teams using 9% to 13% of their cap on their QBs)(6 teams): NY Jets(11.08%), Arizona(11.48%), Houston(11.51%), Baltimore(11.95%), Detroit(12.33%), and San Diego(12.91%)

Group 5 (Teams using 13% or more of their cap on their QBs)(6 teams): St. Louis(13.24%), Atlanta(13.94%), NY Giants(15.8%), Pittsburgh(16.04%), Chicago(17.23%), and Dallas(19.66%)

The argument I'm attempting to make is that the expected playoff distribution:

* 0 or 1 teams from group 5(6 teams) will make the playoffs this year

* 1 or 2 teams from group 4(6 teams) will make the playoffs this year

* 2 or 3 teams from group 3(7 teams) will make the playoffs this year

* 4 or 5 teams from group 2(9 teams) will make the playoffs this year

* 3 or 4 teams from group 1(4 teams) will make the playoffs this year

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I'm got to run, but...

I'm going to delve into this more deeply (and add the rest of the charts), but wanted to provide what I've got to start getting outside thoughts.

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Go Niners!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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