FanPost

HERE’S ANOTHER CRAZY ANALYSIS FOR NINER DRAFT CHOICES – WITH A BLAST OF REALITY THROWN IN !

First, let’s get a few things listed as disclaimers out of the way:

1. The usual, it’s still 2 months till the draft so a lot of movement on prospect rankings will continue;

2. Any FA’s signed may alter this analysis based on position that is filled.

3. Next, let’s really be more realistic in determining what the possibilities are for the Niners in moving up to the TOP TIER in Round 1 = very costly and thus won’t happen - Niners will not move up to get WR Watkins; WR Evans; or CB Gilbert , any other top 10-15 players = would be great, but no dice, it’s all are too costly for the Niners. They don’t have the cash to do it, and they may still make some picks in the FA market. So ya, a BIG NO, NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. There is a slight possibility they could move up to about the #20 rank level (see 1st Scenario below for insight on that thought). .

4. Next, and this is important, what you hear from the Professional Press for who the Niners will pick will be 90% wrong (darts in the wind luck if they are right). Most Pro’s in the media have now made multiple picks for the Niners, moving the targets around like a chess board, so don’t make much of it because what they use as their reasoning is flawed – i.e. needs of the team. What is NOT flawed as history again has shown, is the Niners pick are more likely to pick the guys you are not hearing about (again there are very minor exceptions) – so the players you should be looking at and analyzing are those you’re not hearing from the Prof Puns about.

5. The Niners are and have been always conscience on cost, always always. They will make the best picks they can based on the fact they will NOT be spending a lot of money on it compared to other teams. They prefer to put their money on existing players on the roster more than not. Let’s face it, they have a lot of current good players they would rather pay than giving money away to players who haven’t been tested in the NFL as yet. You can expect this mindset to continue for them.

6. Also, the Niners DO NOT typically choose a player with a "checkered" past, so, we are looking at "clean characters" for the most part that want to make an impact in the NFL. Scratch the others off the list – no matter how athletic they may be !!

7. Last, but not least, and it may be the best sign to look for in who they may choose, is they like players who can play more than one position = they LOVE SWING PLAYERS. There are many existing players on the Niner roster who are categorized as "swing players" – most of them on the offensive and defensive lines especially. A draft prospect that has experience in playing more than one position, should be considered as more likely a pick than those who don’t have that experience or capability.

1st Scenario-Unlikely: Niners move up to low 20’s pick in Round 1: who could be there that they might go for: {Remember, Niners moving up to TOP TIER players in Rd 1 isn’t happening !}

· FS Calvin Pryor: Most likely will not be there, so very low prospect pick;

· WR O. Beckham: Might just be there, this pick is a possibility;

· DT Aaron Donald: If he’s here folks, he should be the Niners #1 pick;

· WR B. Cooks: He could be here, but folks, again let’s be honest, if the Niners pick Cooks, it will be a bad pick. Here’s why: he is no more than a speedster that the Niners have NEVER incorporated in their offense, especially the current one – look at RB L. James – he is a speedster and all we can do is let him field punts and kicks!! No, while he might be there, this should not be the pick. I have no OC confidence in the Niners making major changes to their offensive scheme to accommodate a speedster for a few key plays. No, the picks will be for the guys they want in the game as much as possible.

· CB Jason Verett: possibility, but. don’t see the Niners making a Round 1 pick on a player having surgery next month, but weirder things have happened;

· CB D. Dennard: nope, while this player is a good technician, he doesn’t have the physicality to play in our division on a regular basis (remember those other teams we play more than any others; Seattle, St. Louis, and Arizona = all very physical teams).

So our summary for this scenario says if Beckham or Donald are not their in the pick #20 range, then there is no need to trade up. Simple !

2nd Scenario-Most Likely: Niners trade down their Round 1 pick #30 for a high Round 2 pick: This fan’s is the more likely scenario .

OK, so let’s go with the Niners trading their Pick #30 to go down for another Rd 2 pick. That gives them #3 Rd. 2 picks, and #2 Rd. 3 picks = #5 picks overall in Rd’s 2 & 3.

But, let’s add this: they trade one of their Rd 3 picks for 2015 season(reality is, they will trade away picks). This then gives them #4 total picks between Rd’s 2&3.

Here in these rounds, here are the more likely picks the Niners consider and why: {Remember, they have 4 picks: #3 in Rd2; #1 in Rd3}

· DT’s: L. Nix or S. Tuitt: A teams first pick usually is considered a formidable one, a player who they see as a long term player in a much needed KEY position. Replacement for Ray McDonald at minimum – possibly 2015 season; short term , relief-situational down player as starter;

· WR’s: D. Montcreif, or C. Latimer, or, J. Matthews, or M. Bryant: These WR’s listed in order of their style of physicality, are the best choices for techniques in route running; downfield blocking; great hands and physicality at the catching point, and want to be a force in the NFL carrying no personal baggage with them. The speedster in this group is Latimer. Montcreif is probably best in physicality at the catch point while all can be next generation Crab/Boldin type receivers. While I would personally love to the see the Niners take 2 WR’s, reality says they won’t, just hoping they get at least 1 of these guys listed.

· As much as people want to think otherwise, the elephant has been in the room now for about 2 weeks = Kilgore is our Center (Looney can back-up), so the Niners will not be going for a Center, unless, it’s a choice for depth development in later rounds (see my picks for Rd’s 4-5-6-7);

· The Niners will not make a pick in Rd’s 2&3 for both a FS and SS – 1 is the pick. The question is which one? Reid can play SS – and as we know, he played FS last season, so could they be looking for a FS?, or leave Reid as the FS and pick an SS? Here is the other option for the Niners. They sign Whitner, so now the FS/SS pick becomes a guy who can play both positions – another ‘swing player’ they love to choose. Yes, that is the play in Rd 2&3. The player that fits having experience playing both, even as well as CB is: FS T. Brooks, he’s the man. In essence, and this pick scenario could be quite intriquing in that the Niners could switch these guys during plays against offenses to help confuse them even more. Also, in case you missed it, if Whitner is re-singed, Brooks could still be depth for the CB position – which could eliminate having the thought of needing to draft 2 pure CB’s if both Rogers and Brown do not return – see next point for the other options to CB need.

· The Niners still need a physical player (due to our division – not a technician) at CB. Who is the likely choice with experience both in Slot and Wide-out WR experience so they can provide immediate play as a nickel man or depth on the outside, it’s: CB Kyle Fuller. 2nd choice here is CB(SS) Stanley Jean-Baptiste (also has SS experience – another ‘swing player’). The Niners likely take 2 CB’s in this draft especially if both C. Rogers and T. Brown are gone. Other than those above, the other option for the 2nd CB could be CB A. Colvin (INJ) – a later round pick if taken. Niners do have consistent history to show they will go for injured players to then develop for future seasons. Colvin, if healthy, could have very well been ranked in the high 15’s of Round 1, so this could be a great value pick by Niners. The CB picks are the most flexible the Niners have in this draft for who they pick, but in the end, it’s only 2, but better that those 2 can play as ‘swing’ players in other positions as well.

· If the Niners release or trade OG Iupati, then it’s possible they may be looking for an OG here – but not necessarily as a starter. This is a toss-up pick to determine if they go with a Rd 2&3 pick for OG. They have Looney, they still have Snyder, and Seymour that can provide depth in this position. But do the Niners feel they need a ‘starter’ caliber player for this position in Rd 2&3 due to the loss of Iupati??

If they do, they could consider here: OG D. Yankey, or, OG Xavier Su’a Filo. (My Choice: I think they will go for another OG in Rd’s 4-5-6-7 , check my pick out there, but not here in Rd’s 2&3).

· Do the Niners need/want another DE now?? Is Tank Carradine really ready to go this year(?), is Lemoniex up to more time in a support or starting role(?). With the loss of Bowman, the Niners will need to look at their DE’s to pick up the loss of Bowman’s presence in the pass rush. If these are all question marks, then a DE here in Rd2&3 is possible because they might need the situational depth to use a draft player here. If so, the pick is: DE J. Mauro. The other option is for the Niners to bring in another OLB to clone as Bowman (Wilhoite doesn’t have the pass rushing presence of a Bowman), but I see a possible OLB pick in the later rounds for this possibility (see my pick for OLB in later rounds)).

In summary for Rd’s 2&3(#5 picks-@ Minimum trade 1 pick = leaving #4 picks), here are the possible combination position choices for #4 picks:

- 1-DT; 1-WR’s, 1-CB; 1-FS

- 1-WR; 2-CB’s; 1-FS

- 2-WR’s; 1-CB’s; 1-FS

- 1-WR; 1-CB; !-FS; 1-DE

My choice: 2-WR’s; 1-CB’s; 1-FS

Most likely: 1-DT; 1-WR; 1-CB; 1-FS

For Rd’s 4-5-6-7 (#6 picks – @ Minimum trade #2 picks = leaving #4 picks):

· Niners pick OG for depth with OG R. Bodine. A player with both Center and Offensive Guard experience. Since Niners currently have depth in these positions, they can work to develop Bodine as next generation ‘swing’ offensive lineman that can cover 2 OL positions = just what they like. Option choice is: OG A. Steen, an injured player who without injury would have most likely ranked in Rd. 2.

· Niners possibly look at developing (maybe using as situational starter) an OLB a la Bowman type for depth. If so, the choice: OLB K. Pierre-Louis. This player has "great" skill set for passing defense and has speed for optional blitz pass rusher = this move is another option to strengthen the DE questions of Tank Carradine andloss of OLB Bowman. Back-up LB Wilhoite has better strength in run defense, so using a OLB with pass rushing speed and secondary pass coverage speed, could be utilized for situational plays and for those teams that have a scrambling QB (a la QB Wilson-Seattle).

· Niners will most likely look to the FA market for a back-up QB, but at minimum, short of that, they need competition for the position. They could pick here for it that still makes for a good fit with the Niners, the choice: QB Connor Shaw. They also may very well look to sign UFA’s to work the camp competition as well.

· If the Niners do not pick a FS or SS in Rd’s 2-3, then they might pick one here, the choice: SS A. Dixon, or, FS D. Johnson.

· If the Niners are thinking longer term and their current needs have been met in their minds at this point, their future vision might just go to still add depth to the RB position. This is because there are many questions lingering about RB James; and injured RB Lattimore as every down backs or even solid situational backs. Because of that, they may opt to pick a RB here, the choice: RB J. Smith. Someone who’s proved reliable even when teams know he’s going to get the ball. Now that is someone we should take a look at.

In summary for Rd’s 4-5-6-7, here are the possible combination position choices:

- 1 - OG; 1- OLB; 1 – QB; 1 – SS/FS

- 1 – OG; 1 – OLB; 1 – QB; 1- RB

My Choice: 1 – OG; 1 – OLB; 1 – QB; 1 – RB (This is especially more likely if SS Whitner is re-signed).

SO LET’S SUMMARIZE:

FOR RD’S 1-2-3 (#4 PICKS): NINER ‘REALITY’ PIC’S ARE:

· IF THEY MOVE UP TO POSITION Rd 1 #20 LEVEL: DT DONALD or WR BECKHAM (1 pick)

· IF THEY DON’T MOVE UP: DT’S L. NIX, or, S. TUITT (1 pick)

· FS T. BROOKS

· CB KYLE FULLER OR CB STANLEY JEAN-BAPTISTE (possible 2 picks)

(MY CHOICE, IF NINERS PICK FS BROOKS, ONLY 1 CB PICK NEEDED)

· WR DONTE MONTCREIF OR JORDAN MATTHEWS OR CODY LATIMER (possible 1, or 2 picks);

(MY CHOICE, THE NINERS PICK 2: MONTCREIF & LATIMER)

FOR RD’S 4-5-6-7 (6 PICKS – MINIMUM 2 TRADED=4 PICKS):

· OG R. BODINE

· OLB K. PIERRE-LOUIS

· QB CONNOR SHAW

· RB J. SMITH

MY FINAL REALITY POINT IS: MOST LIKELY THE NINERS WILL NOT DRAFT 8 PLAYERS; IT’S MORE LIKELY THEY WALK AWAY WITH 5 OR 6. BUT IT’S STILL NICE TO DREAM.

OK, Niner Nation, there you have it, ‘reality’ speaks !! What do you think ??



This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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