FanPost

Force as a NFL Draft Measurement (Moncrief comes out on Top)


If you remember back to your physics class, force (f) is mass (m) times acceleration (a). Acceleration is finishing speed minus starting speed.

Mississippi_252brebels_252b2012_252bposter_252bschedule_252bdonte_252bmoncrief_medium

via 3.bp.blogspot.com



It got me thinking: isn't this a GREAT way to measure wide receivers? After all, pushing 220 lbs (w) at 4.5 in a 40 is much more difficult than pushing 170 pounds at 4.5 in a 40. So what are the results?


First, Force (f) for the 40-yard dash = weight (w) x [40/(40 time squared)]. Second, we can get reach, which is height x 1.15 (for arm reach) + vertical Third we get pythagorean Force-Reach, which is f^2 + r^2 = pfr^.5 Finally, we can look at a regression and see Force after we factor out weight (force goes up with weight). We'll call this Force+.
Here are the results. Note that for Force+ I combined Force for the 40, the cone drill, and the shuttle drill.

Player Name 40 yd dash reach 40 force Pythagorean Force-Reach force+
Donte Moncrief 4.40 124.29 456.61 473.23 2.84%
Kelvin Benjamin 4.61 121.13 451.72 467.68 -13.23%
Mike Evans 4.53 125.71 450.27 467.49 -0.07%
Jeff Janis 4.42 123.33 448.39 465.05 32.19%
Brandon Coleman 4.56 121.83 432.83 449.65 -19.25%
Martavis Bryant 4.42 125.88 432.01 449.98 1.48%
Sammy Watkins 4.43 117.67 430.07 445.87 -1.41%
Jordan Matthews 4.46 121.58 426.31 443.31 5.19%
Bennie Fowler 4.52 119.67 424.86 441.39 0.77%
Shaq Evans 4.51 118.17 418.88 435.23 -1.70%
Josh Huff 4.43 117.08 417.84 433.93 3.81%
Allen Robinson 4.60 123.67 415.88 433.88 9.04%
Cody Hoffman 4.65 114.58 412.53 428.15 0.77%
Marcus Lucas 4.60 123.21 412.10 430.12 -5.87%
Albert Wilson 4.43 116.63 411.72 427.92 0.29%
Davante Adams 4.56 123.38 407.82 426.07 -1.26%
Odell Beckham 4.43 120.42 403.57 421.15 23.64%
Brandon Cooks 4.33 116.25 403.22 419.65 31.16%
Bruce Ellington 4.45 118.83 397.93 415.29 21.48%
Kevin Norwood 4.48 117.71 394.61 411.79 0.87%
L'Damian Washington 4.46 119.13 392.13 409.82 -14.28%
Matt Hazel 4.50 119.96 391.11 409.09 -5.85%
Mike Campanaro 4.46 118.00 386.09 403.72 12.53%
Jared Abbrederis 4.50 113.96 385.19 401.69 7.01%
Robert Herron 4.48 114.67 384.65 401.37 -3.29%
Devin Street 4.55 123.13 382.56 401.89 6.68%
Allen Hurns 4.55 114.67 382.56 399.38 -23.07%
Dri Archer 4.26 116.33 381.32 398.67 8.49%
John Brown 4.34 116.67 380.13 397.63 3.42%
Marqise Lee 4.52 120.58 375.91 394.78 5.64%
T.J. Jones 4.48 115.21 374.68 391.99 -4.53%
Ryan Grant 4.64 117.83 369.72 388.05 4.25%
Willie Snead 4.62 115.50 365.44 383.25 -21.57%
Austin Franklin 4.56 117.42 363.57 382.06 -16.29%
Damian Copeland 4.50 121.46 363.46 383.21 21.80%
Paul Richardson 4.40 120.88 361.57 381.24 -5.40%
Jarvis Landry 4.77 110.08 360.39 376.83 -10.46%
Isaiah Burse 4.58 111.08 358.50 375.31 9.85%
Walt Powell 4.63 113.04 352.66 370.34 -5.26%
Corey Brown 4.51 114.58 350.05 368.32 -15.95%
Tevin Reese 4.46 121.54 327.78 349.59 -4.61%
Josh Stewart 4.69 115.00 323.69 343.52 -24.93%


As you can see, Moncrief, Benjamin, Evans, and Janis top the Force charts. When they have the ball, running at full speed, they deliver the most physical force, technically speaking. Looking at Force-Reach, we see pretty much the same results. And when we look at Force+, we see Janis, Cooks, and Beckham near the top. When we factor out weight from Force-Reach, Moncrief rises to the top, followed by Evans. Benjamin drops quite a bit.
So what does this all mean? Well, Moncrief, Evans, and Martavis Bryant are the true physical 'specimens' of this draft.. Furthermore, Brandin Cooks delivers far, far more force for his weight than you would expect (Janis can't catch).


But production matters more for NFL success than anything else. If you take college production x Force-Reach, you see that Mike Evans is an elite prospect, better than Watkins perhaps (but Watkins has an awesome cone time). Cooks produced like crazy in college, and has freakish measurables despite being 5-10.


But what about Moncrief? He produced in college, almost 1,000 yards in his final two seasons despite having an average quarterback and playing in the SEC. And he can be had in the late first or early second (or mid-second)...Evans is a top 10 pick (As is Watkins).


So, is Moncrief the guy at #30??? I would be very happy with that pick

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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