Nearly all of the buzz around NinersNation in relation to the NFL draft seems to be that the team may be or should be trading up in the 1st round. Some have posited reasonable trades into the early 20s, while others have submersed themselves in the murky waters of going-for-broke and trading up into the top 5. There are also the folks advocating for a move to a spot between #10 and #20, citing recent rumors about the Baltimore Ravens looking to move back from #17, or even dredging up the ghost of 2013's trade with the Dallas Cowboys, hoping for an encore performance that yields the 49ers pick #16. Everyone seems to have their favorite player who inexplicably seems to be just out of reach to the Niners at their default #30 spot in the 1st round. I can relate to this sentiment as my draft sights have been fixated on CB Jason Verrett for some time now, and he may not be available at #30.
But what if Baalke, in typical ninja fashion, doesn't do what many of us believe (or hope) he's going to do? What if the draft ninja hasn't fallen in love with a player enough to trade up? What if he instead has become enamored with the depth of this draft and decides to trade back? What could that look like?
For a few days now I've been trying to work out a realistic scenario of trading back from #30 that would yield the 49ers an attractive haul in rounds 2 and 3. I believe that I've accomplished that task. In order to make this happen, I used the Jimmie Johnson trade value chart, so whether you believe that chart accurately describes the parameters for trade value will most likely determine whether you think my trade values are coherent or not. Without further ado, I give you my trades with their point totals and explanations for why I believe the trades are reasonable.
49ers #30 (620) + #94 (124) + #170 (23.4) + #242 (1) for Vikings #40 (500) + #72 (230) + #108 (78)
In this trade, the Niners get the point advantage as the totals come to 768.4 VS. 808. We'll call that 40 point difference a convenience/desperation charge. Last year, the Vikings made a similar exchange with the Patriots to move up to #29 to select WR Cordarrelle Patterson. I'm assuming that the Vikings will not select a QB at #8 and will want to jump ahead of the teams who are in front of them in the beginning of the 2nd round. They can select their targeted QB at #30 after this trade.
49ers #72 (230) + #108 (78) + 245 (1) for Colts #59 (310)
In this trade, the Niners point total comes to 309 while the Colts point total is 310. Indianapolis has only 5 picks total in this draft, so I think they're primed for moving back to pick up additional picks.
After those two trades, the Niners would have #40, #56, #59, and #61 in the 2nd round, with #77 and #100 in the 3rd round being retained. They would keep #129 in the 4th round and one of their 7th rounders. With those selections, here's what a mock draft could look like.
40: WR Jordan Matthews
56: SS Deone Bucannon
59: DE/OLB Marcus Smith
61: DE Kareem Martin
77: CB Jaylen Watkins
100: C Travis Swanson
129: LB Kevin Pierre-Louis
My selections come with the assumption that the 49ers retain RB LaMichael James as their PR/KR and therefore don't need to go after a returner. I believe that the players here are selected at or close to where they are being represented in a conglomeration of ranking systems and mock drafts. No grossly inaccurate draft simulators were used (or harmed) in the making of this mock draft. I've attempted to address a blend of immediate needs and future needs in the next couple of seasons that are linked to pending contracts and the increasing age of players.
So what do you folks think? Does this possibility make trading back look more attractive? Are there players you would prefer over the ones I have here in this mock? Are there other trading back scenarios that you believe would be more advantageous?