FanPost

Grading the mocks


Now that round 1 is in the books we can assess how well draft prognosticators performed. (Rather than attempting to guess at how well the GM's did, which is clearly a fools errand one day later.) I took an assortment of mocks and compared them to the actual draft. The grade was based on the absolute difference between a players draft rank (1-32) and the predicted rank. I am in a generous mood this morning, so all players a mock picked that did not hear their names last night were scored as if they will go first in round 2. That is of course impossible but I don't think it unfairly biases the process. It would be more accurate to wait until each name gets called, but I'm impatient.

The approximate worst score would be 561, the grade you'd receive if you tried to draft the US Olympic hockey team and their wives in order of increasing hand size. You could actually score worse than that as Jimmy Howard at pick 28 would rate a 5 whereas taking Canfora's pick of J.James was worth a 9. A perfect score is of course, 0 or guessing every pick in the order they were chosen. I didn't attempt to address the issue of trades; I just purely graded on order. Some of these mock drafts included trades while others didn't. Cleveland apparently understood that the draft is essentially Chinese checkers and trying to divine what happened for them would be fruitless (aka "picking Bortles 3rd"). There's no good explanation for why I picked certain mocks; I tried to get a cross section of famous names, bloggers and threw in Matt Barrows for some local flavor.

ordered best to worst:

Mike Mayock- 140

Niners Nation- 145

Espn NFL nation- 152

Jason La Canfora- 157

Matt Barrows- 165

Peter King- 196

Pete Prisco- 202

SB nation- 207

Greg Bedard- 223

(to be fair to Bedard his draft was aimed at what teams should do, not what they will do)

espn blogger sb blogger nn blogger p king bedard barrows prisco mayock canfora mister eclectic
HOU Clowney (DE) BUF Clowney (DE) HOU Clowney (DE) HOU Clowney (DE) HOU Mack (OLB) HOU Clowney (DE) HOU Clowney (DE) HOU Clowney (DE) HOU Clowney (DE) ATL Clowney (DE) Clowney (DE)
STL G. Robinson (OT) STL G. Robinson (OT) STL Matthews (OT) STL G. Robinson (OT) STL G. Robinson (OT) STL G. Robinson (OT) STL G. Robinson (OT) STL G. Robinson (OT) STL G. Robinson (OT) STL Matthews (OT) Watkins (WR)
JAX Bortles (QB) JAX Mack (OLB) ATL Mack (OLB) JAX Bridgewater (QB) JAX Watkins (WR) JAX Manziel (QB) JAX Watkins (WR) JAX Mack (LB) JAX Mack (LB) JAX Mack (LB) Bortles (QB)
BUF Watkins (WR) CLE Manziel (QB) CLE G. Robinson (OT) CLE Watkins (WR) ATL Clowney (DE) CLE Matthews (OT) CLE Mack (LB) CLE Manziel (QB) CLE Matthews (OT) CLE Watkins (WR) Mack (OLB)
OAK Mack (OLB) OAK Watkins (WR) OAK Watkins (WR) OAK Evans (WR) OAK Matthews (OT) OAK Bridgewater (QB) OAK Matthews (OT) OAK Watkins (WR) OAK Watkins (WR) OAK Evans (WR) Bridgewater (QB)
ATL Matthews (OT) ATL Matthews (OT) JAX Manziel (QB) ATL Mack (LB) CLE Evans (WR) ATL Mack (LB) ATL Lewan (OT) ATL Matthews (OT) ATL Lewan (OT) DET G. Robinson (OT) G. Robinson (OT)
TB Evans (WR) TB Evans (WR) TB Evans (WR) TB Matthews (OT) TB Manziel (QB) TB Watkins (WR) TB Manziel (QB) TB Evans (WR) TB Evans (WR) TB Manziel (QB) Evans (WR)
CLE Gilbert (CB) HOU Bortles (QB) SF Beckham Jr (WR) MIN Bortles (QB) MIN Donald (DT) MIN Bortles (QB) MIN Bortles (QB) MIN Donald (DT) MIN Gilbert (CB) MIN Donald (DT) Donald (DT)
MIN Barr (OLB) MIN Dennard (CB) BUF Ebron (TE) BUF Ebron (TE) BUF Lewan (OT) BUF Ebron (TE) BUF Evans (WR) BUF Lewan (OT) BUF Martin (OT) BUF Lewan (OT) Matthews (OT)
DET Ebron (TE) DET Clinton-Dix (S) DET Roby (CB) DET Barr (OLB) DET Gilbert (CB) DET Clinton-Dix (S) DET Donald (DT) DET Fuller (CB) DET Dennard (CB) HOU Bortles (QB) Dennard (CB)
TEN Lewan (OT) TEN Ebron (TE) TEN Gilbert (CB) TEN Gilbert (CB) TEN Barr (OLB) TEN Mosley (ILB) TEN Barr (OLB) TEN Barr (OLB) TEN Bortles (QB) TEN Barr (OLB) Mosley (ILB)
NYG Beckham Jr (WR) NYG Lewan (OT) NYG Martin (OT) NYG Lewan (OT) NYG Martin (OT) NYG Evans (WR) NYG Martin (OT) NYG Martin (OT) NYG Ebron (TE) NYG Martin (OT) Lewan (OT)
STL Donald (DT) STL Donald (DT) BAL Lewan (OT) STL Clinton-Dix (S) STL Dennard (CB) STL Dennard (CB) STL Gilbert (CB) STL Roby (CB) STL Beckham Jr (WR) STL Beckham Jr (WR) Fuller (CB)
CHI Fuller (CB) CHI Pryor (S) CHI Clinton-Dix (S) CHI Donald (DT) CHI Pryor (S) CHI Donald (DT) CHI Clinton-Dix (S) CHI Clinton-Dix (S) CHI Pryor (S) CHI Fuller (CB) Pryor (S)
PIT Shazier (OLB) PIT Barr (OLB) PIT Nix III (DT) PIT Mosley (ILB) PHI Beckham Jr (WR) PIT Gilbert (CB) PIT Dennard (CB) PIT Beckham Jr (WR) PIT Fuller (CB) PIT Dennard (CB) Barr (OLB)
DAL Martin (OT) DAL Martin (OT) DAL Donald (DT) DAL Manziel (QB) DAL Jernigan (DT) DAL Jernigan (DT) DAL Jernigan (DT) DAL Jernigan (DT) DAL Manziel (QB) DAL Clinton-Dix (S) Clinton-Dix (S)
BAL Mosley (ILB) BAL Mosley (ILB) STL Pryor (S) BAL Dennard (CB) BAL Ebron (TE) BAL Martin (OT) SF Beckham Jr (WR) BAL Ebron (TE) BAL Mosley (ILB) SF Cooks (WR) Martin (OT)
NYJ Pryor (S) NYJ Beckham Jr (WR) NYJ Dennard (CB) NYJ Cooks (WR) NYJ Cooks (WR) NYJ Barr (OLB) NYJ Cooks (WR) NYJ Gilbert (CB) NYJ Cooks (WR) NYJ Gilbert (CB) Beckham Jr (WR)
MIA J. James (OT) NOLA Cooks (WR) MIN Bortles (QB) MIA Martin (OT) MIA Kouandjio (OT) MIA J. James (OT) MIA Mosley (ILB) MIA Moses (OT) MIA Kouandjio (OT) MIA Mosley (ILB) Verrett (CB)
NOLA Cooks (WR) ARI Shazier (OLB) ARI Carr (QB) ARI Pryor (S) ARI Carr (QB) ARI Pryor (S) ARI Pryor (S) ARI Bortles (QB) ARI Barr (OLB) ARI Carr (QB) Ebron (TE)
GB Clinton-Dix (S) GB Gilbert (CB) GB Mosley (ILB) GB Shazier (OLB) GB Mosley (ILB) GB Hageman (DT) GB Ebron (TE) GB Shazier (OLB) GB Shazier (OLB) GB Ebron (TE) Shazier (OLB)
CLE Manziel (QB) PHI Lee (WR) PHI Barr (OLB) PHI Verrett (CB) PIT Fuller (CB) PHI Lee (WR) PHI Fuller (CB) PHI Cooks (WR) PHI Clinton-Dix (S) PHI Pryor (S) Lawrence (OLB)
KC Ford (DE) KC Hageman (DT) KC Lee (WR) KC Beckham Jr (WR) KC Lee (WR) KC Beckham Jr (WR) KC Latimer (WR) KC Lee (WR) KC Lee (WR) KC Lee (WR) Su'a-Filo (OG)
CIN Dennard (CB) CIN Fuller (CB) CIN Verrett (CB) CIN Fuller (CB) CIN Clinton-Dix (S) CIN Fuller (CB) CIN Roby (CB) CIN Verrett (CB) CIN Donald (DT) CIN Roby (CB) Gilbert (CB)
SD Verrett (CB) SD Nix III (DT) SD Fuller (CB) SD Nix III (DT) SD Verrett (CB) SD Nix III (DT) SD Verrett (CB) SD Nix III (DT) SD Roby (CB) SD Verrett (CB) Ward (S)
PHI Smith (DE) CLE Latimer (WR) CLE Bridgewater (QB) CLE Carr (QB) CLE Bortles (QB) CLE Carr (QB) CLE Carr (QB) CLE Latimer (WR) CLE Bridgewater (QB) CLE Bridgewater (QB) Carr (QB)
ARI Bucannon (S) MIA Moses (OT) NOLA Ford (DE/OLB) NOLA Ealy (DE) NOLA Shazier (OLB) NOLA Cooks (WR) NOLA Lee (WR) NOLA Dennard (CB) NOLA Benjamin (WR) NOLA Shazier (OLB) Cooks (WR)
CAR Benjamain (WR) CAR Verrett (CB) HOU Garoppolo (QB) CAR A Robinson (WR) CAR J. Matthews (WR) CAR Lewan (OT) CAR Bitonio (OT) CAR Kouandjio (OT) OAK Carr (QB) CAR J. James (OT) Benjamain (WR)
NE Easley (DE) JAX Bridgewater (QB) NE Cooks (WR) NE Jernigan (DT) NE Tuitt (DL) NE Su'a-Filo (OG) NE Tuitt (DL) NE Pryor (S) NE Amaro (TE) NE Bucannon (S) Nix III (DT)
SF Ward (S) SF Benjamin (WR) MIA Su'a-Filo (OG) SF Ford (DE/OLB) SF Latimer (WR) SF Verrett (CB) BAL Moses (OT) SF Jean-Baptiste (CB) SF Tuitt (DL) BAL Kouandjio (OT) Jackson (OG)
DEN Roby (CB) MIN Carr (QB) DEN Shazier (OLB) DEN Su'a-Filo (OG) DEN Hageman (DT) DEN Borland (MLB) DEN Ealy (DE) DEN Mosley (ILB) DEN Verrett (CB) DEN Su'a-Filo (OG) Moses (OT)
MIN Bridgewater (QB) SEA Su'a-Filo (OG) SEA Bitonio (OT) SEA Moses (OT) CLE Su'a-Filo (OG) SEA Bitonio (OT) SEA J. James (OT) SEA Bitonio (OT) SEA Jean-Baptiste (CB) SEA Jernigan (DT) Savage (QB)
561 152 207 145 196 223 165 202 140 157 174

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker