I was poking around Twitter today, and came across this tweet from Seahawks blogger Davis Hsu from last night. I did not see the segment, but I trust Davis's tweet.
Garafolo says 49ers believe Aldon Smith suspension will be 4-6 weeks- on Fox.— Davis Hsu (@DavisHsuSeattle) July 17, 2014
I'm going to try and see if I can catch a re-air of this, but this does not surprise me at all. In all of our discussions about a potential suspension, most folks have been somewhere in the range of 2 to 6 games. I have always felt like it would settle on 4. I did not come to that via some scientific approach, but rather just seeing what other suspensions have resulted in, and how this whole thing seems to be playing out.
Roger Goodell has acknowledged the league will factor in his rehab stint, but I also have to think they'll consider the non-charge in the bomb threat case. While Smith was never eventually charged with the misdemeanor bomb threat crime, the NFL's personal conduct policy likely would not simply ignore the situation. I don't think it's enough to make his potential suspension that much worse, but it's not something they'll just ignore.
We will likely get final word on Aldon Smith's potential suspension after his sentencing hearing next Friday, July 25. Ideally the 49ers will hear on this sooner rather than later so they can figure out their situation for that period of Smith's potential absence. Corey Lemonier and Dan Skuta would seemingly be the front-runners to handle his work, much like they did last year during his rehab stint. I suspect Lemonier will emerge ahead of Skuta as the starter, but it would still involve some bit of a rotation.