FanPost

Baalke’s Dilemma

As the 49ers wrap up their second straight non-winning season, the focus of media and fans will inevitably fall upon what the off-season rebuild will look like. Trent Baalke will most likely retain his job for another year, leaving him with a particularly dicey QB question. He can choose the status quo and keep Colin Kaepernick, get rid of Kaep and trade for a veteran QB, move forward with a rookie, or he could trade Kaep and use Gabbert next season. Much like the decision to start Kaepernick in the second half of 2013 or using the #1 overall selection on Alex Smith, this will be the action which defines the club for the next 3-5 years.

Anytime a football team finishes with a poor result, the blame is passed down the chain of command until someone loses their job. We start at the owner, Jed York, who will have a frightful time explaining why he dumped Harbaugh after last year if he retains Tomsula. However, I don’t think the ownership group has lost confidence in his ability to operate the franchise.

Trent Baalke is the next man in line for blame and he clearly deserves a considerable amount of it. His draft classes have been mediocre and his free agency pickups only slightly better. Even the much-heralded 2011 draft haul with Kaepernick, Aldon Smith, Daniel Kilgore, Chris Culliver, and Kendall Hunter has lost its luster. Based on comments made by Jed York, it seems his job is safe for now. His next coach/QB combo may be his last if he continues to underachieve, but it’s clear he’s the captain of this ship.

Reports have hinted that the finger may end up on head coach Jim Tomsula depending on the outcome of the current season. The search to fill the Harbaugh vacancy seemed like a tough puzzle to solve because of the demands of ownership that Baalke maintain control of the roster and overall direction of the franchise. This would make it difficult for the franchise to find a "big name" head coach to replace Tomsula. Further helping Tomsula is the fact that the 49ers roster was decimated last year by legal problems and surprise retirements. There weren’t too many outside observers who had the 49ers winning the division this year or even making the playoffs. I think that Tomsula will likely stay with the 49ers for another year and then be dismissed afterwards. He was brought in to be a teacher and help develop all the young players flooding this rebuilding roster. If the 49ers draft a QB in the 1st round Tomsula will help him get his feet under him in what will probably be a poor season next year. If they decide to trade for a veteran he’d probably want to maintain continuity in the coaching staff. Only in the event that they keep Colin Kaepernick next season could I see Tomsula getting fired for an offensive-minded coach.

Whether Tomsula stays or not, Kaepernick has probably seen his last days in the 49er uniform. The team has made a concerted effort to develop him into an NFL starting QB but his inability to throw the ball accurately, read defenses, and run the offense effectively have not matched up with expectations. There have been recent reports that there were multiple teams interested in Kaepernick at the trade deadline but these, like other reports referenced here, should be taken with a grain of salt. I think it’s a win-win for the team and for Kaepernick with both getting well-needed fresh starts.

If the team decides to release or trade Kaepernick and not replace him with a high draft pick or expensive veteran the team will likely do very poorly next season. Remember that season in 2004 and the quarterback hydra of Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, and Cody Pickett? It didn’t go too well for Terry Donahue or Dennis Erickson and I think the result for Baalke and Tomsula would be similar.

If the 49ers decide to acquire a quarterback through trade reports have indicated that Matt Stafford might be available. If the 49ers could work Kaepernick into that trade it would be an added benefit. I’ve also heard rumors about Jay Cutler but my understanding is that the Bears owe him too much guaranteed to trade him before the end of next year. The problem with this route is that the team would be acquiring a high salary player who didn’t pan out in his last stop. I would imagine that Stafford would require significantly more trade compensation than Kaepernick would fetch due to Stafford’s relative record of success. I think this would be the 2nd most likely outcome if the 49ers could get efficient value between the two but I have a feeling Stafford might command more than the team is willing to pay.

Baalke has made it clear that he places a high emphasis on talent acquisition through the draft. The 49ers have consistently had more than the average amount of picks per team, sometimes overwhelmingly so. Baalke also believes in the "draft and develop" strategy of team management. He rarely trades away picks and his big money contracts are generally team-friendly. This would lead me to believe that he will be using a 1st round pick in next April’s draft to draft a franchise QB for the team. The contract will be relatively cheap, the player will mesh with the team’s youth movement, Tomsula and Baalke will get a little bit of patience from ownership as long as the player develops, and the 49ers can use the money they saved on Kaep and not trading for a veteran to upgrade the offensive line and the defense.


This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.