I think Trent Baalke is a good drafter. I think he is solidly upper echelon. Here is the proof. I summed the career average value for all the picks from all the teams from the 2010-2013 years. I only used 2010-2013 data as the 2014 Career average value numbers are not out. If that data was included that would likely improve the 49ers standing (we'll update when it comes out).
If a player changes teams the original team gets the value of the pick.
Here are the results:
Rank | Team | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Grand Total |
1 | SEA | 119 | 102 | 81 | 9 | 311 |
2 | DEN | 124 | 86 | 36 | 11 | 257 |
3 | NWE | 139 | 54 | 42 | 19 | 254 |
4 | CIN | 89 | 86 | 51 | 15 | 241 |
5 | CLE | 85 | 80 | 61 | 6 | 232 |
6 | SFO | 144 | 66 | 5 | 15 | 230 |
7 | PHI | 84 | 52 | 61 | 21 | 218 |
8 | PIT | 115 | 44 | 29 | 19 | 207 |
9 | TAM | 82 | 43 | 56 | 22 | 203 |
10 | HOU | 69 | 86 | 31 | 16 | 202 |
11 | STL | 67 | 42 | 65 | 28 | 202 |
12 | ARI | 84 | 78 | 22 | 13 | 197 |
13 | MIA | 91 | 49 | 50 | 7 | 197 |
14 | TEN | 57 | 79 | 38 | 20 | 194 |
15 | CAR | 65 | 60 | 52 | 13 | 190 |
16 | WAS | 50 | 72 | 53 | 7 | 182 |
17 | KAN | 96 | 42 | 30 | 13 | 181 |
18 | DAL | 63 | 76 | 16 | 22 | 177 |
19 | GNB | 87 | 40 | 18 | 27 | 172 |
20 | BUF | 48 | 64 | 36 | 21 | 169 |
21 | SDG | 64 | 50 | 26 | 28 | 168 |
22 | MIN | 36 | 56 | 57 | 16 | 165 |
23 | ATL | 64 | 57 | 29 | 10 | 160 |
24 | BAL | 52 | 54 | 37 | 12 | 155 |
25 | OAK | 77 | 49 | 11 | 16 | 153 |
26 | DET | 79 | 27 | 22 | 21 | 149 |
27 | IND | 48 | 28 | 63 | 9 | 148 |
28 | CHI | 49 | 40 | 25 | 27 | 141 |
29 | NOR | 61 | 43 | 17 | 17 | 138 |
30 | JAX | 46 | 35 | 28 | 18 | 127 |
31 | NYG | 56 | 32 | 19 | 9 | 116 |
32 | NYJ | 23 | 30 | 36 | 23 | 112 |
I suppose I'll just let the comments do the rest of the talking.
EDIT:
RG - Roster Games
SS - Starter Seasons (as defined by pro-football-reference).
Picks - Final Picks in Draft
CarAV - Career Average Value
DC - Draft Capital (the Jimmy Johnson chart, only thing I could find).
Rank order on the CarAV/DC column.
Teams | RG | SS | Picks | CarAV | DC | Games/DC | SS/DC | CarAV/DC | RG/Pick | SS/Pick | CarAV/Pick |
SEA | 1147 | 42 | 39 | 311 | 6922 | 0.166 | 0.00607 | 0.0449 | 29.41 | 1.08 | 7.97 |
PIT | 1044 | 22 | 35 | 207 | 5830 | 0.179 | 0.00377 | 0.0355 | 29.83 | 0.63 | 5.91 |
NWE | 1154 | 29 | 35 | 254 | 7668 | 0.150 | 0.00378 | 0.0331 | 32.97 | 0.83 | 7.26 |
GNB | 1084 | 16 | 36 | 172 | 5197 | 0.209 | 0.00308 | 0.0331 | 30.11 | 0.44 | 4.78 |
ATL | 865 | 18 | 27 | 160 | 4856 | 0.178 | 0.00371 | 0.0329 | 32.04 | 0.67 | 5.93 |
BAL | 1000 | 20 | 33 | 155 | 4861 | 0.206 | 0.00411 | 0.0319 | 30.30 | 0.61 | 4.70 |
CHI | 666 | 18 | 22 | 141 | 4496 | 0.148 | 0.00400 | 0.0314 | 30.27 | 0.82 | 6.41 |
HOU | 1182 | 31 | 34 | 202 | 6501 | 0.182 | 0.00477 | 0.0311 | 34.76 | 0.91 | 5.94 |
NOR | 671 | 16 | 22 | 138 | 4584 | 0.146 | 0.00349 | 0.0301 | 30.50 | 0.73 | 6.27 |
DEN | 1097 | 35 | 32 | 257 | 8805 | 0.125 | 0.00397 | 0.0292 | 34.28 | 1.09 | 8.03 |
SFO | 1122 | 20 | 36 | 230 | 8233 | 0.136 | 0.00243 | 0.0279 | 31.17 | 0.56 | 6.39 |
OAK | 998 | 24 | 33 | 153 | 5552 | 0.180 | 0.00432 | 0.0276 | 30.24 | 0.73 | 4.64 |
CIN | 949 | 29 | 37 | 241 | 8816 | 0.108 | 0.00329 | 0.0273 | 25.65 | 0.78 | 6.51 |
DAL | 851 | 22 | 28 | 177 | 6887 | 0.124 | 0.00319 | 0.0257 | 30.39 | 0.79 | 6.32 |
TEN | 1028 | 21 | 33 | 194 | 7637 | 0.135 | 0.00275 | 0.0254 | 31.15 | 0.64 | 5.88 |
PHI | 1267 | 25 | 41 | 218 | 8597 | 0.147 | 0.00291 | 0.0254 | 30.90 | 0.61 | 5.32 |
ARI | 1019 | 25 | 31 | 197 | 7903 | 0.129 | 0.00316 | 0.0249 | 32.87 | 0.81 | 6.35 |
WAS | 846 | 20 | 34 | 182 | 7555 | 0.112 | 0.00265 | 0.0241 | 24.88 | 0.59 | 5.35 |
TAM | 933 | 28 | 30 | 203 | 8572 | 0.109 | 0.00327 | 0.0237 | 31.10 | 0.93 | 6.77 |
SDG | 877 | 29 | 27 | 168 | 7158 | 0.123 | 0.00405 | 0.0235 | 32.48 | 1.07 | 6.22 |
CAR | 879 | 20 | 30 | 190 | 8194 | 0.107 | 0.00244 | 0.0232 | 29.30 | 0.67 | 6.33 |
MIA | 1177 | 32 | 32 | 197 | 8532 | 0.138 | 0.00375 | 0.0231 | 36.78 | 1.00 | 6.16 |
CLE | 1105 | 34 | 32 | 232 | 10291 | 0.107 | 0.00330 | 0.0225 | 34.53 | 1.06 | 7.25 |
MIN | 1019 | 19 | 37 | 165 | 8139 | 0.125 | 0.00233 | 0.0203 | 27.54 | 0.51 | 4.46 |
IND | 776 | 22 | 30 | 148 | 7548 | 0.103 | 0.00291 | 0.0196 | 25.87 | 0.73 | 4.93 |
NYG | 768 | 13 | 29 | 116 | 6018 | 0.128 | 0.00216 | 0.0193 | 26.48 | 0.45 | 4.00 |
STL | 1117 | 32 | 36 | 202 | 11458 | 0.097 | 0.00279 | 0.0176 | 31.03 | 0.89 | 5.61 |
KAN | 989 | 27 | 32 | 181 | 10332 | 0.096 | 0.00261 | 0.0175 | 30.91 | 0.84 | 5.66 |
BUF | 1072 | 27 | 35 | 169 | 9995 | 0.107 | 0.00270 | 0.0169 | 30.63 | 0.77 | 4.83 |
NYJ | 794 | 19 | 25 | 112 | 6886 | 0.115 | 0.00276 | 0.0163 | 31.76 | 0.76 | 4.48 |
DET | 724 | 20 | 28 | 149 | 9539 | 0.076 | 0.00210 | 0.0156 | 25.86 | 0.71 | 5.32 |
JAX | 717 | 21 | 25 | 127 | 9417 | 0.076 | 0.00223 | 0.0135 | 28.68 | 0.84 | 5.08 |
I can't post a scatter plot, but the point was to show the correlation between RG/Pick & SS/Pick. SFO is pretty bad at generating starter seasons out of players on the roster. What does this mean? Baalke Players are getting on the roster, but they are not playing. That is a function of a stacked roster.
Players not getting snaps due to entrenched starters. The point is not that these players are good, it's that other teams with weaker rosters would have to play them (and therefore would start accumulating more CarAV, even at low rates). That might apply to players like Hunter, James, Kilgore, Moody, Dial, etc.