FanPost

The Official Trent Baalke Draft Comparison. 49ers #6 from 2010-2013.

I think Trent Baalke is a good drafter. I think he is solidly upper echelon. Here is the proof. I summed the career average value for all the picks from all the teams from the 2010-2013 years. I only used 2010-2013 data as the 2014 Career average value numbers are not out. If that data was included that would likely improve the 49ers standing (we'll update when it comes out).

If a player changes teams the original team gets the value of the pick.

Here are the results:

Rank Team 2010 2011 2012 2013 Grand Total
1 SEA 119 102 81 9 311
2 DEN 124 86 36 11 257
3 NWE 139 54 42 19 254
4 CIN 89 86 51 15 241
5 CLE 85 80 61 6 232
6 SFO 144 66 5 15 230
7 PHI 84 52 61 21 218
8 PIT 115 44 29 19 207
9 TAM 82 43 56 22 203
10 HOU 69 86 31 16 202
11 STL 67 42 65 28 202
12 ARI 84 78 22 13 197
13 MIA 91 49 50 7 197
14 TEN 57 79 38 20 194
15 CAR 65 60 52 13 190
16 WAS 50 72 53 7 182
17 KAN 96 42 30 13 181
18 DAL 63 76 16 22 177
19 GNB 87 40 18 27 172
20 BUF 48 64 36 21 169
21 SDG 64 50 26 28 168
22 MIN 36 56 57 16 165
23 ATL 64 57 29 10 160
24 BAL 52 54 37 12 155
25 OAK 77 49 11 16 153
26 DET 79 27 22 21 149
27 IND 48 28 63 9 148
28 CHI 49 40 25 27 141
29 NOR 61 43 17 17 138
30 JAX 46 35 28 18 127
31 NYG 56 32 19 9 116
32 NYJ 23 30 36 23 112

I suppose I'll just let the comments do the rest of the talking.

EDIT:

RG - Roster Games

SS - Starter Seasons (as defined by pro-football-reference).

Picks - Final Picks in Draft

CarAV - Career Average Value

DC - Draft Capital (the Jimmy Johnson chart, only thing I could find).

Rank order on the CarAV/DC column.

Teams RG SS Picks CarAV DC Games/DC SS/DC CarAV/DC RG/Pick SS/Pick CarAV/Pick
SEA 1147 42 39 311 6922 0.166 0.00607 0.0449 29.41 1.08 7.97
PIT 1044 22 35 207 5830 0.179 0.00377 0.0355 29.83 0.63 5.91
NWE 1154 29 35 254 7668 0.150 0.00378 0.0331 32.97 0.83 7.26
GNB 1084 16 36 172 5197 0.209 0.00308 0.0331 30.11 0.44 4.78
ATL 865 18 27 160 4856 0.178 0.00371 0.0329 32.04 0.67 5.93
BAL 1000 20 33 155 4861 0.206 0.00411 0.0319 30.30 0.61 4.70
CHI 666 18 22 141 4496 0.148 0.00400 0.0314 30.27 0.82 6.41
HOU 1182 31 34 202 6501 0.182 0.00477 0.0311 34.76 0.91 5.94
NOR 671 16 22 138 4584 0.146 0.00349 0.0301 30.50 0.73 6.27
DEN 1097 35 32 257 8805 0.125 0.00397 0.0292 34.28 1.09 8.03
SFO 1122 20 36 230 8233 0.136 0.00243 0.0279 31.17 0.56 6.39
OAK 998 24 33 153 5552 0.180 0.00432 0.0276 30.24 0.73 4.64
CIN 949 29 37 241 8816 0.108 0.00329 0.0273 25.65 0.78 6.51
DAL 851 22 28 177 6887 0.124 0.00319 0.0257 30.39 0.79 6.32
TEN 1028 21 33 194 7637 0.135 0.00275 0.0254 31.15 0.64 5.88
PHI 1267 25 41 218 8597 0.147 0.00291 0.0254 30.90 0.61 5.32
ARI 1019 25 31 197 7903 0.129 0.00316 0.0249 32.87 0.81 6.35
WAS 846 20 34 182 7555 0.112 0.00265 0.0241 24.88 0.59 5.35
TAM 933 28 30 203 8572 0.109 0.00327 0.0237 31.10 0.93 6.77
SDG 877 29 27 168 7158 0.123 0.00405 0.0235 32.48 1.07 6.22
CAR 879 20 30 190 8194 0.107 0.00244 0.0232 29.30 0.67 6.33
MIA 1177 32 32 197 8532 0.138 0.00375 0.0231 36.78 1.00 6.16
CLE 1105 34 32 232 10291 0.107 0.00330 0.0225 34.53 1.06 7.25
MIN 1019 19 37 165 8139 0.125 0.00233 0.0203 27.54 0.51 4.46
IND 776 22 30 148 7548 0.103 0.00291 0.0196 25.87 0.73 4.93
NYG 768 13 29 116 6018 0.128 0.00216 0.0193 26.48 0.45 4.00
STL 1117 32 36 202 11458 0.097 0.00279 0.0176 31.03 0.89 5.61
KAN 989 27 32 181 10332 0.096 0.00261 0.0175 30.91 0.84 5.66
BUF 1072 27 35 169 9995 0.107 0.00270 0.0169 30.63 0.77 4.83
NYJ 794 19 25 112 6886 0.115 0.00276 0.0163 31.76 0.76 4.48
DET 724 20 28 149 9539 0.076 0.00210 0.0156 25.86 0.71 5.32
JAX 717 21 25 127 9417 0.076 0.00223 0.0135 28.68 0.84 5.08

I can't post a scatter plot, but the point was to show the correlation between RG/Pick & SS/Pick. SFO is pretty bad at generating starter seasons out of players on the roster. What does this mean? Baalke Players are getting on the roster, but they are not playing. That is a function of a stacked roster.

Players not getting snaps due to entrenched starters. The point is not that these players are good, it's that other teams with weaker rosters would have to play them (and therefore would start accumulating more CarAV, even at low rates). That might apply to players like Hunter, James, Kilgore, Moody, Dial, etc.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.