FanPost

DEVELOPING A STRATEGY FOR THE UPCOMING DRAFT

Every time Fooch publishes an updated version of the NN Mock Draft Database I can't help but chuckle ... primarily at the projections that don't make much sense IF you have any REAL knowledge of the Niners' situation. I guess that that's the rub ... the pundits simply don't know the Niners the way we do ... and frequently even we disagree among ourselves.

So just exactly what are the Niners' needs to be satisfied in the upcoming draft? THAT is the question that I'd like to try to answer here ... although I know full well that the rocks of disagreement will start flying as soon as I publish this.

A BIG PICTURE LOOK AT THE NINERS' NEEDS

First, let's just admit that the Niners, for a variety of reasons, have a lot more draft needs this year than in many other recent years. Just on the offensive side of the ball, we could use:

Quarterback: Beyond Kaepernick and Gabbert, we could use a young QB to develop for the future.

Running Back: While we have 3 backs on the likely-Final-53 roster (excluding Hayne, Smith, Gaskins and Tanner, who won't likely be on the Final-53), we could really use another BIG back to hammer defenses when Carlos gets tired.

Wide Receiver: We've apparently lost Crabtree and Lloyd in free agency; conversely, we've added Torrey Smith to join Boldin as a starter and also added Jerome Simpson. Further, we have two relatively unknown prospects in Ellington and Patton. None of those guys is a #1 WR, so we could use more help.

Tight End: Obviously Vernon fell off a cliff, performance-wise, last year and there is no assurance that he will be any better this year ... he might, but then again, he might not. Baalke tried to replace Delanie Walker and select Vernon's eventual replacement by drafting Vance McDonald ... but unfortunately he hasn't developed to the extent expected of a 2nd round pick.

Offensive Guard: Big Mike is gone and we're hoping that we've got his replacement at left guard in Brandon Thomas or Marcus Martin or Joe Looney or, heaven forbid, Erik Pears. Beyond that, it is VERY unlikely IMO that Alex Boone re-signs with the Niners at the conclusion of the 2015 season. If he does leave, we also need to find yet another starting OG to develop and be ready to replace Boone in 2016.

Offensive Tackle: Obviously Jonathan Martin was not the answer as the backup swing tackle; equally obvious, at least in my mind, is that Erik Pears isn't the right answer either in the long run. Baalke could have done much better than Pears in free agency ... but he didn't. Thus, we may be looking to the draft to find the swing tackle of the future.

So, what about the defensive side of the ball? Well, it turns out that we got some needs there too:

Cornerback: Some of the pundits want to hand us a corner in the first round; while it's true that we lost both of last year's starting outside cornerbacks in free agency, it's also true that we have a number of young CBs with potential ... the difficulty is that we really don't know what we have because none of them have played very much; maybe some of them will be good or maybe not ... we just don't know. We'll have to play them to find out ... but then again you can NEVER have too many good cornerbacks.

Outside Linebacker: We did lose Aldon's temporary replacement (Skuta) in free agency and it's probably fair to say that Brooks isn't what he used to be ... either physically or mentally ... but, at least as important, he's just too damn expensive. Baalke has said that Brooks will remain a Niner, but I just don't buy that ... I think that the real plan is to unload Brooks, via either a trade (very doubtful) or release, after the draft when other teams know more about their remaining positional needs. Fortunately, we have Aldon and Lynch as the starters and Lemonier as the main backup; but what if either of the starters falls off the wagon and/or Lemonier fails to develop any further? Maybe we should be looking for more help at OLB in the draft.

Inside Linebacker: Talk about getting blind-sided! One starter will be returning from a severe injury and we lost our other two starters to retirement within days of each other. Think that maybe we should try to get some help here in the draft?

Defensive Line: One starter (McDonald) is gone for sure and the other (Cowboy) is likely another retirement. But even if Cowboy decides to return for one more season, we still likely need to find his replacement as a starter next year in this draft, unless you believe that we already have that guy on the roster.

So, we have potential needs at 6 of the 8 offensive positions (everything but center and fullback) and 4 of the 6 defensive positions (everything but nose tackle and safety). Yes, we could also consider the idea of replacing the expensive Mr. Dawson as our kicker, but I believe that the right answer there is to defer that until the 2016 draft when we will (a) have fewer needs, (b) have an above-average number of picks available, and most importantly (c) have access to the best kicker prospect to come out in the last decade. And, the importance of that position may become even more important, depending upon how the extra-point rules change this year and what the NFL may do with respect to goalpost widths.

BUILDING BLOCKS FOR THE STRATEGY -- DEMAND SIDE

How do we go about deciding what to do in this upcoming draft? As with most buying decisions, it's a function of supply and demand. On the demand side we have to prioritize our needs ... they are NOT all equally important. On the supply side, not all positional groups of prospects in this draft are equally deep and/or talented. One approach to sorting this all out is to segregate our needs (the demand side) into two groups ... primary needs and secondary needs, then perhaps prioritize within those two groups. Of the list of potential needs listed above, I think that four positions could be considered primary needs and the remaining six secondary needs. Further, I would prioritize the needs within those two groupings as follows:

PRIMARY NEEDS

  1. Defensive Line: Even with the addition of the aging Darnell Dockett (who will be returning from an ACL), the REAL performance level of the existing DL roster is a big unknown because most of the guys are yet unproven. Further, if Cowboy decides to retire, the need is even greater. We definitely need to add some starter-level talent.
  2. Inside Linebacker: Obviously the retirements killed us. We need to find a future starter as a long-term upgrade to Wilhoite. Further, IF Bowman has any significant limitations when he returns, we may need more than that.
  3. Wide Receiver: Even with the addition of Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson, we still don't really have a #1 WR ... and we haven't had since TO departed, for God sake. Maybe we can find one in this draft and maybe we can't ... the supply side of the equation will dictate that.
  4. Offensive Guard: The need isn't necessarily immediate, but we need to find a starter to replace Boone in 2016. In addition to Thomas (who I assume will win the starting job at LG), we do have Looney, Marcus Martin, Kilgore, Pears and Tiller on the roster ... Martin is probably the future starting center but none of the others is a starting NFL OG in my opinion.

SECONDARY NEEDS

I consider these needs "secondary", not because they aren't important, but because the need isn't so immediate ... we've got time and other sources to potentially fill these holes, if necessary. These needs are:

  1. Outside Linebacker: The starters are in place but the backups are not strong and the potential for one of the starters to be "absent" for a while is certainly there. Again, my assumption is that Brooks will not be a part of this group.
  2. Running Back: Hyde, Hunter and Bush form a good group, but the latter two have been injury prone in the past and neither of them is really a "hammer" who can effectively do the heavy lifting up the middle for more than a brief period when Hyde needs a breather. Selecting another BIG back in the draft could address that issue.
  3. Cornerback: Yes, I realize that we lost both of last year's starting outside corners in free agency, and, yes, I realize that a significant portion of our present cornerback roster is very inexperienced. Nonetheless, I consider CB as a secondary need because we did sign two veteran corners in free agency and we also have FIVE young, inexperienced corners (NOT including Brock or Ward) who need to play before we really know whether they can be the answer or not. My thinking is that it doesn't make sense to add still more guys to the pile until we know what we already have. If none of the young guys can cut it, we can try to temporarily fix the problem with additional free agents.
  4. Tight End: How significant this need becomes will obviously depend upon how well Vernon and Vance play this season; in any event, I doubt that Vernon will be extended after this season.
  5. Developmental Quarterback: Kaepernick and Gabbert are in place. If the right guy is available in the draft, we could consider selecting a QB in the late rounds to move to the Practice Squad for further development at the end of training camp.
  6. Swing Tackle: Obviously Jonathan Martin wasn't good enough, given his cost, to keep the job. I'm very unhappy with the Pears signing because IMO he doesn't make us much better and he costs twice as much as Martin. Pears is probably the guy for this season, but I would like to select a backup swing tackle in the late rounds of the draft, someone who we could red-shirt for a year.

BUILDING BLOCKS FOR THE STRATEGY -- SUPPLY SIDE

Now let's look at the supply side of the draft equation. Here are the characteristics by position of this year's draft class as I see it:

OFFENSIVE POSITIONS

  • Wide Receivers: Very deep draft class; good talent available in most rounds, but very few real #1 WR talents ... all in the first round.
  • Offensive Guards: Moderately deep class but NO 1st round talents and most of the better prospects are concentrated in the 2nd through 4th rounds.
  • Running Backs: Very deep draft class; good talent available in all rounds.
  • Tight Ends: Almost non-existent talent; there's Maxx Williams (who isn't that great IMO) and everybody else; honestly, I only see four guys that I would even consider as draftable in the entire class.
  • Quarterbacks: Very shallow class ... two guys at the top, then a cliff to everyone else; very limited talent level except at the top.
  • Offensive Tackles: Very deep draft class ... BUT, rankings are really an inverted bell curve ... that is, there are five very good prospects at the top of the class and five more each in the 6th and 7th rounds, but very limited talent in the mid-rounds. WTF? Crazy, but that's the way it is.

DEFENSIVE POSITIONS

  • Defensive Linemen (Combining 3/4 DEs plus DTs excluding NTs): Nine good prospects in the 1st round and another nine in the 2nd round. Five good prospects in the 3rd round and four more in the 4th. Wow! A LOT to choose from.
  • Inside Linebackers: Crazy! I only see seven serious prospects in the entire class ... NONE in the 1st round, but four of them are 2nd-rounders.
  • Outside Linebackers: Moderately deep class; talent is pretty much spread evenly across the first five rounds.
  • Cornerbacks: Very deep class; few first-round talents but a number of good prospects available in the 2nd through 5th rounds.

CONCLUSIONS -- MATCHING DEMAND WITH SUPPLY

  1. Forget drafting a tight end at all.
  2. Given the number of other needs and the number of young CB prospects already on the roster, forget drafting a CB this year; if all or most of the young guys fall on their swords, this may be a major need in the 2016 draft.
  3. Forget drafting a QB except in a late round, with the plan to waive him to the Practice Squad for the year.
  4. Swing tackle is a secondary need and late-round talent is available; look no sooner that 6th or 7th round.
  5. Capable running back should be available in almost any round; target other significant needs first.
  6. Can probably get a decent OLB prospect in the 4th round, possibly even the 5th.
  7. Select an ILB in the 2nd round.
  8. Select a potential future starting OG in the 2nd or 3rd round, if possible.
  9. You won't get a potential #1 wide receiver without (a) trading up, or (b) being willing to accept character risk.
  10. If decide not to get a #1 WR, consider selecting two mid-round receivers ... one speed guy to help Torrey stretch the field and one BIG guy to help in the red zone.
  11. Real DL talent is in the first two rounds ... especially for a future starter.

APPLYING THE STRATEGIC CONCLUSIONS

The very first decision to be made is ... do we move up (probably into the top-11) to select a #1 WR or not? I would opt NOT to move up for two reasons: (a) trading up from #15 to #11 or higher would be VERY expensive in terms of draft capital; and (b) we have more than just a few needs, so need more picks, not fewer.

The next logical question is ... are we willing to take the character risk that comes with selecting DGB at #15 as a future #1 WR? Given that that selection is likely to be an all-or-nothing move (just like AJJ) and our past history of failure on first-round receivers, I'm reluctant to made that pick. If there weren't good alternatives in later rounds I might be tempted, but, in fact, there are attractive alternatives available later. Thus, I opt to pass on DGB at #15.

Next question ... are there ANY MUST-HAVE prospects (for a high-need position) that are overwhelmingly superior to other prospects for the same position that will be available in the bottom third of the first round? Let's think about that. We are NOT going to select a prospect for any of the following positions in the first round: TE, CB, QB, OT (priority), OLB (priority), ILB (none available), or OG (none available). That leaves three positional possibilities ... WR, RB and DL. We've already decided in 1. and 2. above not to take a WR at #15. Another RB is not a high enough priority to justify going after Gurley or Gordon. That makes it pretty simple ... we're looking at a DL. So the question then becomes ... is there one DL that could be considered a must have and only available at #15. The answer MIGHT be yes IF Danny Shelton was still available at #15. But there are two problems with Shelton ... (a) he's not likely to still be there at #15, but (b) even if he were, his extraordinary talent is primarily as a nose tackle (or POSSIBLY as a 4/3 DT). We don't need yet another NT ... so I pass. Anybody else? IF available, do we HAVE TO HAVE Dupree, Malcolm Brown, Owa or Armstead to #15? Not in my opinion. My conclusion: Given the lack of a must-have prospect at #15 and the extent of our draft needs, I WOULD RATHER TRADE DOWN AND GET ANOTHER 2nd-ROUND PICK THAN SELECT ANY OF THOSE FOUR PROSPECTS AT #15.

Can we trade down to the mid-20s, picking up another 2nd-rounder, and still get a premier DL prospect? Yes ... possibly Owa and/or Armstead but almost certainly Eddie Goldman. DONE ... I TRADE DOWN. Carolina at #25 might be a good target ... they are looking for an OT or CB and guys like possibly La''el Collins, Peat, Flowers or Waynes could be available to them at #15. Another possibility is Dallas at #27, looking to grab Gurley or Gordon ahead of San Diego.

Given all of these preliminaries above, here is my draft strategy:

  1. Trade down from #15 to #25-27, picking up at least an additional low second-round pick.
  2. Select a DL in the 1st round ... Owa, Armstead or Goldman.
  3. Select the best ILB available with our first 2nd round pick ... Anthony or McKinney.
  4. Select the best OG available with our second 2nd round pick.
  5. Select a WR in the 3rd round. If you can't get a future #1 (VERY likely), I like the idea of going after two WRs ... a speed guy and a BIG guy to help in the red-zone.
  6. Having a late-round pick (from Denver because of the Stevie trade compensation) in the 4th isn't ideal. So I trade the low 4th (#126) and our 6th (#189) to Kansas City in order to move up to #115 in the 4th to get a better prospect.
  7. Select the best available OLB available with Pick #115.
  8. Select another WR, one who complements the 3rd round selection, with our 4th-round compensation pick.
  9. Select the best BIG running back prospect available with our 5th-round pick.
  10. With our two 7th-round picks, select a developmental QB and a backup swing tackle ... one of whom will need to go to the Practice Squad and one on the NFI or IR list.

And there you have it ... we get a DL, ILB, OG, 2 WRs, OLB, RB, OT and developmental QB.

A POSSIBLE MOCK DRAFT USING THIS STRATEGY

Obviously applying this draft strategy could yield a lot of different results. I decided to apply it to develop a mock for the Niners ... using the NFLDraftScout (CBS) prospect rankings and selecting at least two prospects for each available pick, a primary and a backup selection. I won't complicate things by revealing all that detail. Rather, here are the results showing my first choice in each case:

Round 1 / Pick 15: Traded to Carolina

Round 1 / Pick 25: DL Eddie Goldman (Florida State) 6'4" / 336# / 5.28 speed / Combine Grade: 6.24

Round 2 / Pick 46: ILB Stephone Anthony (Clemson) 6'3" / 243# / 4.56 speed / Combine Grade: 5.82

Round 2 / Pick 57 (Caro): OG Tre' Jackson (Florida State) 6'4" / 330# / 5.52 speed / Combine Grade: 5.84

Round 3 / Pick 79: WR Phillip Dorsett (Miami FL) 5'10" / 185# / 4.33 speed / Combine Grade: 5.82

Round 4 / Pick 115 (KC): OLB Lorenzo Mauldin (Louisville) 6'4" / 259# / 4.85 speed / Combine Grade: 5.64

Round 4 / Pick 126: Traded to Kansas City

Round 4 / Pick 132 (Comp): WR Darren Waller (Georgia Tech) 6'6" / 238# / 4.46 speed / Combine Grade: 5.44

Round 5 / Pick 151: RB Karlos Williams (Florida State) 6'1" / 230# / 4.48 speed / Combine Grade: 5.43

Round 6 / Pick 189: Traded to Kansas City

Round 7 / Pick 246: QB Brandon Bridge (South Alabama) 6'4" / 229# / 4.72 speed / Combine Grade 5.00

Round 7 / Pick 254 (Comp): OT Corey Robinson (South Carolina) 6'7" / 324# / 5.33 speed / Combine Grade: 5.16

    This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.