FanPost

The Wisdom of Crowds and NFL Draft Grades

Generally, players are drafted in accordance with the pre-draft big boards you see floating around -- I like the one CBS has personally. And generally, players end up having a career approximate value in line with their draft position (obviously there's quite a bit of variance and luck there). And generally, teams that take that best player available and avoid reaching for dumb picks 2 - 3 rounds early are better at drafting.

So, I decided to take a look at draft performance based on how well teams stuck to value and avoided doing silly things like take a small school safety two rounds early. What you see below are net draft value chart points. I then curved the scored so that the average team gets a C.

Tm RANK Net Draft Points Grade
NYJ 1 1,497 A+
MIN 2 821 A
ATL 3 760 A
DAL 4 748 A
BAL 5 652 A-
CHI 6 488 A-
PIT 7 369 B+
MIA 8 354 B+
GNB 9 194 B
BUF 10 161 B
HOU 11 121 B-
CLE 12 104 B-
CIN 13 76 C+
NWE 14 33 C+
IND 15 -4 C
NYG 16 -56 C
DEN 17 -245 C-
PHI 18 -276 C-
SDG 19 -281 C-
SFO 20 -281 D+
JAX 21 -286 D+
OAK 22 -325 D
SEA 23 -330 D
DET 24 -389 D-
TEN 25 -420 D-
KAN 26 -434 F
WAS 27 -501 F
ARI 28 -514 F
CAR 29 -539 F
STL 30 -611 F
TAM 31 -643 F
NOR 32 -802 F

Now, this is based on the draft value chart. I think this approach makes sense because missing in the top 10 is a much bigger blow than missing at pick 100.

But, what if I used the Approximate Value charts that PFR is using?

Tm RANK Net AV GRADE
MIN 1 17.6 A+
NYJ 2 12.3 A
ATL 3 11.1 A
PIT 4 10 A
CHI 5 7.6 A-
BAL 6 7.3 A-
JAX 7 6.2 B+
CIN 8 5 B+
BUF 9 4.7 B
MIA 10 4.4 B
CLE 11 4.1 B-
HOU 12 3.9 C+
DAL 13 3.5 C+
GNB 14 1.1 C+
NYG 15 -1.2 C
IND 16 -2.2 C
PHI 17 -2.7 C-
SDG 18 -4.8 C-
KAN 19 -5.4 C-
TEN 20 -5.5 D+
DET 21 -5.7 D+
DEN 22 -6.5 D
TAM 23 -7.4 D-
CAR 24 -7.5 D-
NWE 25 -8.1 D-
NOR 26 -8.9 F
SEA 27 -9 F
SFO 28 -9 F
OAK 29 -9.9 F
WAS 30 -11.5 F
STL 31 -13.5 F
ARI 32 -14.8 F

The first thing you see is that the Jets fall from clear #1 to clear #2 -- this is because while Leonard Williams is a steal, he's not **that** much of a steal if you look at career performance. However, you do see that the Vikings apparently absolutely crushed this draft -- and this is like the third in a row that they've done that. So hat's off to them. We have the pleasure of playing them week 1.

Moving on to the 49ers and the NFC west. As you can see, the 49ers fare poorly here I give the team an F...28th. Our 1st, 2nd, and 4th round picks (Smelter) all have large negative values. On the bright side, the rest of the division did just as bad: Arizona grades out as the worst, followed by the rams, and Seattle is 27th...so yay?

Bottom Line: those who reach usually miss (almost always miss), and teams who just go by the consensus do better than those who reach for a Tartt.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.