The San Francisco 49ers host a surging New Orleans Saints squad this Sunday at Levi’s Stadium. The Saints have won three of their last four games, including Superdome wins over the Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers, and a road win over the San Diego Chargers. Only one of their four losses was truly a blowout, so there is reason for optimism in the Big Easy.
I chatted with Chris Dunnels of Canal Street Chronicles to get a better handle on this version of the Saints. They bring in a strong rushing attack, and another dynamic passing game. Their defense remains a big question mark, which is par for the course.
Niners Nation: What exactly do you make of the Saints right now? They lost three straight, and have since won three of four, including a great win over Seattle. Where do things stand?
Canal Street Chronicles: The Saints lost three straight, but aside from the Monday Night Football game against the Falcons, could have easily won the games against the Raiders, Giants, and Chiefs. In the same grain, they could have easily lost the games against the Chargers, Panthers, and Seahawks. It's really hard to tell what this team is based off the previous weeks, but this week will be very telling of the Saints team moving forward. The Saints on paper are significantly better than the 49ers in every offensive and defensive statistical category that matters. They need to show they can beat the teams they're supposed to beat.
The Saints haven't been at full strength on defense all season, and are finally (hopefully) getting two of their best performers on defense back this week in CB Delvin Breaux and rookie DT Sheldon Rankins, the latter of whom would be making his NFL debut. If the Saints are able to get and stay healthy on defense, and keep things going on offense, they just might be able to make things interesting this year.
NN: What's the plan with Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower? We saw Ingram benched for Hightower. Was that a one-time thing? If Ingram is back starting this week, what is Hightower's role?
CSC: Again, it's really hard to say right now. If I had to guess, Tim Hightower gets carries to start the game. Mark Ingram will then be slowly worked in to the rotation (or maybe not-so-slowly if Hightower gets off to a sluggish start). I actually anticipate seventh rd pick Daniel Lasco out of Cal to get the most touches out of the season he's seen thus far. As for between Ingram and Hightower, whoever is the "hot hand" that game will probably get the bulk of touches. Moving forward long term, the Saints are not paying Mark Ingram $7M over the next two season to ride the bench or be a back-up.
NN: The passing attack seems plenty dangerous once again, with Michael Thomas really adding something. What would be weaknesses in the Saints passing attack?
CSC: Drew Brees is still without a doubt the best part of the passing game, but he can also be the worst. If an opposing team is able to put pressure on him and get in his face, he can force the ball into coverage or miss open receivers. The pass-catching unit he has around may actually be the best group he's ever had in New Orleans, and that includes the Colston, Moore, Shockey, Bush years. The Saints success on offense will live and die by Drew Brees' arm.
NN: What are the strengths and weaknesses of the defense?
CSC: Compared to last year, the Saints are incredible against the run. Compared to other teams in the NFL this year, the Saints are simply middle-of-the-pack. They rank 14th overall against the run (based on rushing yards allowed) and 19th against the pass (again, based on passing yards given up). With the aforementioned Rankins and Breaux returning, the Saints defense *should* stiffen up on both fronts even if ever so slightly. Still, even the eye test confirms they are better against the run this year than the pass.
Speaking of their pass defense, the absence of Delvin Breaux has been hard. Even his replacement, Sterling Moore, went out (but he too should be back this week). The starters at CB after Moore went down have ranged from mediocre to absolutely terrible. They have had a knack for inducing DPI calls by not turning their heads to try to make a play on a ball while making tons of contact. It looks like they are slowly learning, but it wouldn't be shocking to see them dip back into their old ways.
NN: Predictions for the game? Final score?
CSC: Saints are three-point favorites right now (the line is up to four), but I expect a lot of Vegas money to be put on the Saints with that line. I think this will be the first "complete" Saints team win all year. Hightower and Ingram should do well against a run defense that gives up over five yards per carry and a healthy Saints defense will be a nice and refreshing change of pace. 35-17 Saints.