Fooch's note: This is an old FanPost. I meant to bump it to the front page a while back, but now's as good a time as any.
In past years, I've provided analysis on the performance of our drafted picks in approximate value vs what we would expect their approximate value to be -- the residual Approximate Value. Well, 2015 CarAV numbers are in, and going back to 2011, no team has less Residual CarAV -- again value above what is expected based on the pick number -- than the San Francisco 49ers.
When looking at total CarAV, we are 29th - but that doesn't take into account extra picks acquired for Alex Smith and similar moves.
So, without further ado, here are the rankings.
Tm | Total CarAV | Residual CarAV |
SEA | 449 | 176.83 |
HOU | 338 | 36.64 |
OAK | 263 | 23.76 |
CAR | 299 | 23.32 |
DAL | 292 | 22.08 |
WAS | 313 | 21.18 |
ATL | 242 | 20.83 |
BAL | 286 | 18.13 |
GNB | 282 | 10.99 |
MIA | 294 | 10.50 |
CHI | 233 | 8.61 |
ARI | 293 | 4.04 |
TAM | 264 | 2.60 |
CIN | 333 | -1.69 |
DEN | 291 | -2.66 |
PIT | 253 | -2.68 |
NYJ | 252 | -3.18 |
SDG | 254 | -3.84 |
MIN | 325 | -4.14 |
IND | 246 | -8.12 |
BUF | 319 | -8.89 |
NOR | 195 | -9.74 |
NWE | 281 | -12.02 |
TEN | 282 | -12.08 |
STL | 325 | -12.58 |
PHI | 279 | -19.37 |
KAN | 271 | -19.52 |
JAX | 259 | -29.24 |
CLE | 284 | -45.81 |
NYG | 195 | -52.41 |
DET | 215 | -56.11 |
SFO | 229 | -73.13 |
Our draft picks have been hot garbage, and there's no other way to describe it. I guess you could say that the Giants have been nearly as bad, but no -- not really! -- when you consider Baalke has blown extra picks!
PS - formulas. All are draft order (x) and CarAV (y). All roughly have an r^2 of 0.4
2011 = -10.82*LN(X) + 60.851
2012 = -7.101*LN(X) + 42.035
2013 = -4.52*LN(X) + 27.467
2014 = -3.496*LN(X) + 20.815
2015 = -1.677*LN(X) + 9.6996