FanPost

Still Ridiculously Early 53-Man Projection

So I put out a 53-Man Projection right after Undrafted Free Agent rumors started flying. I actually had Jon Toth making the squad, but then the 49ers ended up not signing him after all.

It's been almost a month since then (how time flies!), and we have a little clearer picture as to how the roster will shape up. There's still some questions about the back end of the roster, but for the most part it's pretty easy to tell who will end up making it.

Just some explanations before we begin:
PS= Practice Squad Candidate
This doesn't mean they will make the PS, but they qualify. They won't make the 53 but could be picked up by the 49ers provided nobody else picks them up.

Cut
Won't make the 53 and aren't PS eligible.

Torn (like Natalie Imbruglia)
Two players who for whatever reason I can't decide if they'll make the cut.

Next to each position there's the number of players I believe the 49ers will have at that position.

Quarterbacks 3
Locks:
Hoyer, Barkley, Beathard
PS: Mullens

Pretty straightforward. Technically, Barkley qualifies as a cut candidate; the team will save $1.3 million if they do cut him after June 1 and he'll only be about a $300k dead money hit, but if anything happens to Hoyer the 49ers need someone with experience to fill in. Also, check out Matt Maiocco's latest podcast; interesting how Barkley hasn't really played in a scheme that fits his skill set until last year, where he had his best season by far. Hopefully Mullens can end up on the PS.

Running Backs 5
Locks: Juszczyk, Hyde, Hightower, Williams, Breida
PS: McCloskey, Mostert
Cut: Bibbs

From what I've read the 49ers are really high on Breida, and ultimately they want him and Williams to form a Freeman/Coleman type of combo. I think he makes the 53 if he balls out during preseason because the 49ers don't want to risk losing him via waivers.

Wide Receivers 5
Locks:
Garçon, Goodwin, Kerley, Taylor, Robinson
PS: Bolden, Bourne, Carter, Johnson III, Smelter, Ross, Burbridge
Cut: Ellington
People have sold me on Smelter, but I still don't think he makes the 53, unless the 49ers decide to carry one more WR and one less offensive lineman, or something like that. His size does offer intrigue, and he could be a great blocker in the run game, but he's still so raw. Ellington's pretty much done with the 49ers. He's already sustained an injury and missed Phases 1 and 2 and the start of OTAs. Wouldn't surprise me if he's cut when June 1 rolls around.

Tight Ends 3
Locks:
McDonald, Kittle, Paulsen
PS: Hikutini
Cut: Celek, Bell

McDonald's a lock for now, but it's no secret the 49ers are shopping him. I wonder if the teams they're talking to want to see how McDonald looks in preseason first. Based on his contract, though, he's a lock, but then again I thought Torrey Smith was a lock because of his contract. If McDonald is dealt, Kittle could end up being the #1 TE Week 1. Paulsen has experience in the system and is a valuable blocker. I wonder if Bell ends up making the 53 if McDonald gets cut. He has some upside and is still on his rookie deal.

Offensive Line 9
Locks: Staley, Zuttah, Garnett, Kilgore, Gilliam, Brown, Barnes, Fusco
Torn: Magnuson, Theus
PS: Williams, Goodman, Flynn, Levy, Price
Cut: Beadles

Gilliam, Barnes and Fusco have an edge with their experience. Theus has a year of experience over Magnuson, even if it was bad experience, but both offer flexibility. I liked Magnuson entering the draft; if I had to choose between the two I'd go with Magnuson with his upside.

Defensive Line 8
Locks: Buckner, Mitchell, Armstead, Thomas, Lynch, Blair, DJ Jones
Torn: Dial, Carradine
PS: Taumopenu, Nwachukwu
Cut: C. Jones

Between Dial and Carradine, the obvious choice would be dial. He's been steady, if unspectacular, the last couple of seasons. But my case for Carradine over Dial is Dial will really only play 1-tech DT. There's so many guys that can play 3-tech (Buckner, Armstead, Thomas, Blair), and Dial isn't a serious candidate for DE. Maybe you keep him as a veteran backup so D.J. Jones won't have to play this season in case Mitchell gets injured, but the 1-tech only plays like 30 percent of the time anyway. Carradine does give the 49ers another guy besides Lynch who can play Leo; he's more of a natural edge player as opposed to Thomas, who'll play more of that big (or stout) DE spot and kick inside.

Linebackers 7
Locks: Bowman, Foster, Smith, Watson, Coyle, Harold
Torn: Gilbert, Brooks
Cut: Armstrong

Brooks has experience, but he's 33, and the 49ers will save about $4.5 million if they cut him after June 1. Gilbert is pretty raw as a UDFA, but he's got pass rushing potential and apparently can even play in space a little bit. He has the potential to play Sam. Mike with Bowman and Will with Smith and Foster are pretty much set, but Sam is up for grabs. Harold is my favorite there, but Watson is also a factor. Armstrong's a cut because, while I do like him as a player, he projects as more of a Will with his skill set (former safety) and size (220 lbs.), and as mentioned Smith and Foster are already there.

Cornerbacks 5

Locks: Robinson, Witherspoon, Johnson, Reaser
Torn: Williams, Redmond
PS: Franklin, Iworah

I didn't have Reaser as a lock until literally an hour ago. Apparently he's been killing in OTAs, and he could play a similar role to Jeremy Lane in Seattle, where he could play inside or out. Williams has the edge over Redmond as the pure slot corner because of his history with defensive backs coach Jeff Hafley, but Redmond can't be counted out.

Safeties 5
Locks: Reid, Ward, Tartt, Jerome, Colbert
PS: Sunseri, James, Golden
Cut: Jones

Jones is essentially just a special teams contributor; Jerome and Colbert will not only contribute on ST but they have more upside, and Colbert can also play some corner. Jerome's been balling out so far in rookie minicamp and OTAs, and while that doesn't mean he'll beat out Ward, it does solidify his spot on the 53.

Specialists 3
Locks: Gould, Pinion, Nelson
Cut: Rose

I might put out another list around preseason, but I don't really see things changing all that much unless someone gets injured, falls flat on his face or balls out of control.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.