Niners Nation

49ers-Bills Statistical Review: The Ugly Duckling

2008-12-03T21:40:54Z

The consensus since Sunday has been that the 49ers' win was of the "ugly" variety. Although I did predict that type of game, I'm not going to sit here and toot my own horn given that I also predicted a 49er loss (you're welcome Cruithear). Where there's been no consensus, however, is regarding how we should interpret this ugly victory. All week, the fans and media have been engaged in a debate that sounds like something out of an Alfred Lord Tennyson poem: Is it better to have played poorly and won or to never have played poorly at all? In my statistical game review this week, I'm going to try to answer two related questions: (1) What does an ugly win look like statistically? and (2) Should we be optimistic or pessimistic after this ugly win?

ISN'T SHE U-GLY? ISN'T SHE WON-DER-FUL?

So what does an ugly win look like statistically? Let me start painting the picture for you with DVOA:

The 49ers played three times less efficiently than they normally do (-44.9% vs. -15.0%).
The 49ers played their second least efficient game of the season (only -55.7% vs. SEA was worse).
The 49ers played considerably less efficient than the Bills did (25.4% less efficient).
The 49ers underperformed their 3.6% DVOA disadvantage going into the game (by 21.8%).
The 49ers' offense played 42.6% less efficiently than the league average.
The 49ers' offense played 32.3% less efficiently than the Bills' offense did.

After the jump, I'll continue to paint the portrait of an ugly duckling...

Now, how about adding some offensive line stats to the picture:

2.75 actual yards per RB carry, 2.0 unadjusted line yards per RB carry, and 2.63 line yards per RB carry when adjusted for opponent. The average NFL yards-per-carry is 4.20.
11.5% sack rate, and 15.8% sack rate when adjusted for opponent. The average NFL sack rate is 6.3%.

Let's finish off the picture with a running back stat:

Frank Gore gained only 3.0% of his rushing yards after the first 10 yards of a carry. The league average is 19.0%.

Basically, the Niners played worse than the Bills, especially on offense, yet still won the game. And despite being wildly inefficient running the ball, they still won a game played in weather conditions that required efficiency in the running game. That right there is the protrait of an ugly duckling.

So how should we feel about this ugly win? Well, as bad a performance as it was, it was also a statistical anomaly in two ways that should bring 49er fans a sense of optimism for the future:

This was the first game of the season that the Niners won despite being outplayed by a better DVOA team. They had previously gotten outplayed in their Week 2 win at Seattle, but the Seahawks had (and still have) a worse DVOA than the Niners, which means that the Niners technically were a statistical favorite.
This was the Niners' first win east of the Mississippi against a superior team since the beginning of the Nolan era. They previously were 0-12 in such matchups.

So let's stop and absorb what these two statistical anomalies mean: For the first time in at least 4 seasons (I'm going to look at this in more historical depth), the 49ers just beat a better team east of the Mississippi despite being outplayed statistically in the game. Maybe this is just some kind of regression to the mean, or maybe it's a sign that the long-lauded "character in the locker room" is actually starting to translate into wins. We won't really know for sure until the end of the season (aka after that game in Miami on 12/14), but I'm starting to feel optimistic given the consistent will to win that this team is showing under Mike Singletary.

THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS

Just to refresh our memories, I identified the following strength vs. weakness (SVW) matchups for the 49ers in their game against the Bills:

Situation	SF Rank	BUF Rank
SF DEFENSE VS. BUF OFFENSE ON 2^ND AND LONG	6	32
SF OFFENSE VS. BUF DEFENSE ON 3^RD AND MID	27	1

So how did they do? As you may recall, the bottom line of the 2^nd-down SVW was that the 49ers’ defense needed to limit Bills yardage on 1^st down, putting them into 2^nd and long situations. That’s how I’m going to score success/failure here. Also, the Niners' offense only had 2 plays on 3^rd and mid (4-6 yards), so I’m not going to grade that SVW (FYI, they were 50% successful).

1^st-Down Defense – In continuing the week’s ugly duckling theme, the 49ers won despite doing performing poorly in this crucial situation. On the Bills’ 27 total 1st-down plays, the Niners’ defense forced the Bills' offense into 2^ndand long 13 times, allowed 2^nd and short 4 times, allowed another first down 7 times, and put the Bills into 2^nd and mid 3 times. All told, that’s a 13-11-3 performance with 7 new first downs allowed, which is pretty bad when you consider their 1 first-down allowed, 14-5-6 performance last week against the Cowboys. What makes this performance even worse is that the situation was more crucial this week because the Bills are actually worse than the Cowboys on 2^nd and long. It can’t be understated how poorly the Niners’ D played on first down against the Bills, so I’m going to bring up one last stat regarding this SVW. On the Niners’ 13 successful first-down plays, the Bills only gained a total of 3 yards, or 0.2 yards per play. In contrast, the Bills gained 173 yards, or 15.7 yards per play, on the Niner D’s 11 unsuccessful first-down plays. On those plays, the Bills’ offense had gains of 50, 22, 19, 14, 13, 11, and 11 yards. That, my fellow 49er fans, is ugly.

Now, you might say, "Hey Danny. In your preview, you said the Bills were much better than the Cowboys on first down." This is true. However, the Niners’ D also performed worse than expected when they did force the Bills into 2^nd and long. Specifically, they were successful 8 times, giving up a total of 1 yard (0.3 yards per play) and recovering a fumble; while they were unsuccessful 5 times, giving up a total of 61 yards (12.2 yards per play). Score: Taking all of the above into account, it was a double whammy, or alternatively…Double Bogey.

Using my golf scoring system, the Niners were 2-over-par on one hole. Again, their SVW performance just further reinforces the fact that the 49ers beat the Bills despite playing particularly poorly on a play-by-play basis. While it’s a hell of an achievement, and a rare one to boot, it’s not a recipe for consistent success unless the "character" it suggests is a sign of better things yet to come.

Next up this Friday…a preview of the Jets game. Will the 49ers play the role of spoiler or that of Brett Favre’s red-headed step-child?

**DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which is better?

Mike Singletary Approval Rankings, Week 13

2008-12-03T17:00:09Z

I forgot to run the Approval Rating last week so all we have as a baseline for this week is the 97% rating from 2 weeks ago. It would have been interesting to see what Singletary's rating would have been after a loss. Such is life.

So, we move to Singletary instead coming off a big road win at Buffalo. The team seems to be rallying around the coach and really wants to step up their play for him. Things were ugly at times last Sunday, but a common refrain in the comments was that this was a game Mike Nolan would have definitely lost. I would have to agree. There were enough moments where poor game management would have screwed the 49ers and game management was not a strength of Nolan.

Although it might not be wildly important (or maybe it is), a big difference has been the simple fact that the team actually has managed to hang onto their timeouts for much of the game. In the second quarter, the 49ers forced a Bills turnover that led to 3 points. While they couldn't move in for a touchdown, they did have two timeouts to burn in case the situation required them. One blunder that did occur in that sequence of events was using timeout #2 with 16 seconds left, instead of letting the clock tick down to 3 or 4 seconds. A subsequent squib kick put the Bills in great field position, but fortunately they couldn't capitalize.

The important thing is that Singletary seems to learn from his mistakes. As seen in the Golden Nuggets, Mike Singletary hired an ex-NFL referee to be in the replay booth. Although the Cardinals debacle occurred after that, it's still a smart hire by Singletary. It's little things like this that make me feel better about him as head coach.

The win over Buffalo certainly helps in Mike Singletary's bid for the full-time head coaching job. This coming weekend against the Jets will be an even bigger test. Even though the 49ers won on the road against Buffalo, the Bills have been struggling for the last month. I think it's a good win, but I can certainly see why people might take it with a grain of salt. The Jets are coming off a tough loss to Denver, but one could argue it was more of a let-down game following their upset of the Titans. Barring something ugly, a win over the Jets might very well be enough to secure the 2009 head coaching position.

So, the question then is how you feel about Mike Singletary at this moment. Vote, and if you're so inclined, throw out reasons for or againat approval of Mike Singletary.

Poll

Do you approve of the job Mike Singletary is doing as head coach?

Golden Nuggets: Quiet confidence, all I can say

2008-12-03T11:07:36Z

Hey guys, not much going on today. Now my excitement for the win last Sunday is completely gone, replaced by surprising quiet confidence in our team against the Jets come Sunday. I think we can pull it off, I hope we can pull it off, because I really don't want to be mad come Monday's edition. So I don't have much else to say, other than enjoy your links.

Here's an analysis of the first half of the Bills game from Niner Insider. (SFGate.com)

Would you rather have Shaun Hill or Matt Cassel? Maiocco gives us a short comparison of the two. I believe I'd rather have Shaun Hill. What are your thoughts? (PressDemocrat.com)

Vernon Davis went back to school; is his own favorite player. I'm not surprised. (MercuryNews.com)

On a day with very little news, I find a link for who was the best QB from the 49ers? Joe Montana or Steve Young? Check out this comparison. (BleacherReport.com)

What do you think about Norv Turner coming back as offensive coordinator? I'm open to the idea, to an extent. Matt Barrows writes about it. (SacBee.com)

Samuel Lam writes about how this is the last time Favre will play the Niners. Personally, I'm glad as well. He's beat us so bad its not even right. (MVN.com)

Defense was good last Sunday, but the offense wasn't very at all. This article sheds some light on the subject. (RealFootball365.com)

Here's a 49ers team report from Yahoo Sports full of points, news, roster moves, etc. (Yahoo.com)

Singletary and Hill both believe that even if they play flawlessly between now and the offseason that they aren't guaranteed to be back next year as head coach and starting QB respectively. (Yahoo.com)

Singletary's act is working, or so this article says. (Yahoo.com)

Scout.com says the 49ers are finally finishing. I'm not about to assume that's true until we have a lead against the Bretts and win it. (Scout.com)

They also state that the Niners are finding their identity. (Scout.com)

Here's a Q&A (dubbed "Two Minute Drill") with S Mark Roman. Apparently he loves Dave Chappelle. (49ers.com)

This victory is more than meaningless, while not exactly a turning point. (MercuryNews.com)

That's all for now but I expect to update.

49ers re-sign LB Ahmad Brooks

2008-12-02T17:46:45Z

Well that was quick. Linebacker Ahmad Brooks has been added back to the 53-man roster. To make room for him, the 49ers waived wide receiver Chris Hannon.

Hannon was originally promoted from the practice squad due to all the injuries at wide receiver. To make room for him then, Brooks was waived. It's like musical chairs. Now we'll see if Brooks ever gets an opportunity to make some plays.

Who's more valuable, Patrick Willis or Frank Gore?

2008-12-02T17:00:09Z

I started thinking about this issue during the Bills game and a little more when someone suggested in a FanPost packaging Gore in a deal to get Tom Brady. The 49ers have a young, major impact player on offense in Frank Gore and on defense in Patrick Willis. The question is who is more valuable to the team. When a team is 4-8 it's probably a little difficult to assess "most valuable," but I think it's still worth doing.

One other reason for doing this is to get an idea of fan attitude towards the two of them. Frank Gore has struggled at times this season and some people have been quick to jump on him and suggest changes. People here recognize his abilities, but sometimes people can forget about the good thing, particularly when the shiny new toy, Patrick Willis, comes along. So, I thought I'd look at the arguments for and against each guy being more valuable.

Frank Gore
I start with Gore because he is the longer tenured 49er. Gore has certainly struggled at times this year, but he's still managed to put up some rather impressive numbers. Considering how poorly the offense has been at times over the past couple of years and his numbers are all the more remarkable. This season he's sitting at 926 yards and 1,280 total yards. If Gore puts together a decent performance this Sunday, he'll become the first 49ers running back to rush for 1,000+ yards in three straight seasons (not even the great Roger Craig did that).

So, why is he more valuable to the 49ers than Patrick Willis? Well, when he's on his game, he is an unstoppable force of nature. He's not the biggest guy on the field but he's got the ability to run guys over like nobody's business. He has shown a combination of shifty moves and an ability to break arm tackles with the best of them. Just as impressive is the fact that he's led the team in receptions the last two years and is tied for the lead this year with Isaac Bruce. FInally, when he's dominant, Gore can seemingly single-handedly win games on his own with his running and receiving performance.

Why is he not as valuable? Often times if the offensive line is struggling, Gore can really struggle to get going. His numbers are solid but his yards per carry has been down a bit this year and last. Physically, he lacks the breakaway speed that the great running backs seem to have. He doesn't need to have Devin Hester speed, but when he gets into the secondary he sometimes lacks that next gear necessary to break the 50+ yard touchdown runs. He can make solid plays, but not always the big, huge plays that can completely change the momentum of the game.

Patrick Willis
Bamm Bamm has been in the NFL for less than two full seasons and already predictions of the Hall of Fame abound. He led the NFL in tackles as a rookie, set a single season record for tackles with that number, was defensive rookie of the year and made the Pro Bowl. In his second season, Willis is #2 in total tackles and leads all linebackers in pass deflections. Last season saw the highlight of him running down Sean Morey to save a touchdown and this year saw an amazing interception return for a touchdown. Needless to say there has been NO sophomore slump for Bamm Bamm.

Why is Patrick Willis more valuable than Frank Gore? He brings a dominant athleticism that allows to make huge plays no matter how poorly the rest of the defense is performing. As bad as the defense has been at times, it seems like he makes a huge play every game, more often than not seeing him streak across the field to make a tackle in the back field. When he's not getting large tackle totals, it's often because teams are scheming away from him. And even then he still makes an impact. In week 1 he only had 5 total tackles, but he also had two pass deflections. This past week saw him garner 14 tackles, one forced fumble and a pass deflection.

Why is he not as valuable? One could argue his high tackle totals are simply due to a poor defensive line that allows ball carriers through for easy tackles. Of course, tackling a running back is no easy task, so that might not be saying much. Also, it's debateable whether a single defensive player can impact the entire defensive game on his own. Of course, tell that to Lawrence Taylor, Champ Bailey or Deion Sanders.

Going into this post I was thinking I could find sufficient reasons to vote for either Frank Gore or Patrick Willis. After posting the reasons and trying to think of additional reasons, I don't know how I could argue anybody other than Patrick Willis. He is approaching that level of being a guy who can single-handedly impact a game on defense like some of the all-time greats. Given that he's only a second year player, the sky really is the limit for him.

Now this definitely not a knock on Frank Gore. Gore brings so much to the table and I would obviously not be looking for a new running back. Rather, it's more a matter of Gore's dependence on the offensive line and the rest of the offense in his performance. He's put up great numbers for some bad teams, but I'm not sure he's at the level of impact that Patrick Willis has so quickly reached.

So am I off-base with my assessment? Two years ago Frank Gore was far and away the MVP of this team. However, times can change and I think Patrick Willis has grabbed that title from Gore.

Poll

Which player is more valuable to the 49ers?

Golden Nuggets: On the prowl for upsets.

2008-12-02T10:17:22Z

Hey all, James here. Its Tuesday and somehow I'm still feeling good about the win. Usually it only lasts about a day before my "Oh-God-Next-Sunday-Is-Now-On-Its-Way-We-Suck-We-Suck-We-Suck." But man, I got a feeling we can beat the Jets, especially after seeing the Broncos pull it off. We've got upset on the mind and all I can say is that I'm once again cautiously optimistic. I'm going to give you an early, bold prediction! We beat the Jets and we play BETTER than we did at Buffalo... 13-3!!!... <--Joke prediction. At any rate, sorry, no cookies today, (or any yesterday for that matter, fooled you.) Here's your articles, read, enjoy, all that good stuff etc etc.

We'll start with an article about.. surprise, Singletary and his job security. It does seem all the players love him, which is good. I'm eager to know if there's anyone in the locker room who doesn't think he should stay. (SFGate.com)

Donald Strickland gets a lot of focus from Singletary and in this article. (SFGate.com)

And another from Niner Insider. (SFGate.com)

Matt Maiocco seems duly miserable in Buffalo's weather, but he still manages to give us an article with a few points such as the state of Ahmad Brooks, the injury of Patrick Willis (don't worry he's fine) and more. (PressDemocrat.com)

Not big news, but ex-NFL referee Ron Blum is in the booth for SF apparently since the Seahawks game. Big whoop, I say we get rid of the bunch of 'em and get somebody who can see. (PressDemocrat.com)

Here's an article from Matt Barrows, talking about a few of the matchups against the Bills, a bit about Patrick Willis.. just a general article worth reading. (SacBee.com)

This article claims the 49ers are on the prowl for upsets. We surely are, I hope we win 'em all, I personally don't care what happens to the other divisions as a result of our wins. (BleacherReport.com)

Don't forget to go vote for Joe Nedney and/or Tony Wragge in the SuperAd contest. (NFL.com)

Our defense bent, but it did not break. That's a nice change. (RealFootball365.com)

Here's a transcript of Singletary's Monday press conference. (MercuryNews.com)

This week's Team Issued features Aubrayo Franklin. He opens with a gem: "Just like in any game, if our offense scores and the other team’s doesn’t, than we usually win the game." ...No comment. (49ers.com)

The players continue with their rallying for Singletary and him erasing the interim from his title. (49ers.com)

Clements has a thumb injury. The very short article says its not so bad--I hope its right. (49ers.com)

Here's Eric Davis with this weeks Wrap Up. And here's yesterday's Singletary's Notebook. (49ers.com)

49ersNews gives a good article with a lot of opinions about Sunday's game. (49ersNews.com)

That's all for now.

49ers 10 - Bills 3: Mike Singletary's Formula for Success

2008-12-01T20:00:06Z

A running theme of the Mike Singletary era has been his reliance on 5 specific keys to victory, which he calls "49ers Formula for Success." It's been discussed over and over again by the beat writers and was featured early in yesteday's game on Fox. It's brought up repeatedly in practice so clearly these are things he strongly values. Singletary's keys to victory are:

1. Total Ball Security
2. Execute
3. Dominate the trenches
4. Create great field position
5. Finish

I'm thinking that as long as Singletary is running things (and as long as he doesn't change them), the morning after a game will involve a run down of his 5 keys to victory and how the team performed in each area. I'll even throw out arbitrary grades. Feel free to do the same.

Total Ball Security
Given the weather, ball security figured to be a big issue. In the end the 49ers fumbled the ball four times and the Bills fumbled twice. The good news is that the 49ers only lost one of those fumbles. Given the nasty, rainy weather it's not surprising that there were ball security issues. At the same time, one problem that continues to appear is on the center-QB exchange. This is at least the third game where Heitmann and Hill have had an issue. For the most part they've been able to recover the ball, but it's something that needs to be addressed. I'd say all things considered, for Total Ball Security, the team probably deserves about a B-. It'd be worse but I'll give them a pass becaus of the weather.

Execute
As Barrows wondered, what does this mean? On offense the team executed quite impressively on their opening drive but struggled to execute much of anything the rest of the way. Nothing really got going for them so I'd suppose that's not "executing." The defense gave had issues with bending, but in the red zone they absolutely executed. The 49ers have done fairly well in not giving up touchdowns in the endzone. That proved huge given Rian Lindell's field goal struggles. Special teams certainly executed as Nedney drilled an important 51-yard field goal and Andy Lee continued to drop punts inside the 20. All in all I'd say offensive execution is probably a C+ or B-, defensive execution gets an A (the red zone defense makes up for Marshawn Lynch running wild in my opinion) and special teams execution gets an A+.

Dominate the trenches
On the offensive side of the ball, there was not a whole lot of domination. Frank Gore simply could not get going, averaging a mere 2.8 yards per carry. Given what Gore has proven he can do, I consider this as much an offensive line issue as anything else. Shaun Hill was sacked 3 times but on the scoring drive he was provided enough time to make some big throws. Offensively I'd give the team a C+.

On the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers didn't get a ton of pressure on the QBs, but they definitely got it when they needed it. It certainly helped that Losman more or less created the pressure for the 49ers by running around when it wasn't necessary. Marshawn Lynch had a big day running the ball, which would indicate poor performance in the trenches. The good news on that front though is that when the Bills got into the red zone they couldn't punch the ball in. Once again, the red zone domination of the trenches more than makes up for the earlier struggles in that regard. Defensively I'd give the team a B.

Create great field position
Since losing Allen Rossum, Delanie Walker has done a decent job on kick returns but nothing spectacular. Nate Clements is back on punts and had one small return. Clearly the team misses Allen Rossum. Hopefully he'll be back for the Jets game. The 49ers started inside their own 20 twice and in Bills territory twice although that was due in part to turnovers and not due to the return men. All in all, I'd give the team a B-. Nothing special but no mistakes.

Finish
In winning the game, this section brings kudos to the defense. The defense bent quite often this game, but always finished things when the Bills got into the redzone. More importantly, the Bills got the ball three times late in the game with a chance to score and the defense stepped up big time. The first time the Bills drove to the 49ers 7 and turned it over on downs thanks to some timely pressure. The second time the Bills started on the 49ers 25 thanks to a big Parrish punt return and a personal foul. A 3 and out later and the Bills missed a field goal. The third time was the Bills final possession in which Losman faced a ton of pressure and couldn't make the necessary plays.

Again, the defense's red zone performance is what makes this an A performance. The offense struggled, but for the most part they didn't do anything too stupid. In a knock-down, drag-out battle sometimes thast's all that's necessary. The offense will obviously need to put points on the board against the Jets, but as long as they can avoid turnovers, I think better weather will lead to improved offense.

AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...: Week 13 -- With a Bullet

2008-12-01T17:00:07Z

Welcome to After Further Review..., where we can’t stop laughing when we think about Plaxico Burress, where we still can’t decide if we’re more annoyed or attracted to The "Fills You Up" Girl from the Bud Light commercials, and where we’re ready to bring you the odds, ends, and trends from this weekend's action in the NFL.

But, first things first, let’s get to the news that just can’t wait:

SAFETYWATCH ‘08 UPDATE: Yes, folks, the safety infestation continued to run wild throughout the NFL again this week as yet another safety was recorded -- for the fifth week in a row by my count. The most recent outbreak occured in the Falcons/Chargers game when Phillip Rivers was called for Intentional Grounding in the end zone in the 2nd quarter. Stay tuned -- more updates to follow.

Okay, with that out of the way, now we can go back about our business...

SELF-INFLICTED: I don’t even know what to say about this latest Burress thing. Before this year, he never seemed all that crazy to me -- at least not for a WR. Now, he looks like he’s trying to set a record for crazy. Honestly, I think Burress just realized that all the WR’s who get the biggest publicity are the crazy ones, and wanted to get him some of that.

Seriously, I think sometime this off-season he said to himself: "I just caught the Super Bowl-winning TD, I’m a great receiver, but I just don't get any respect." He got himself a contract extension, but that failed to fill the void that resides in every diva WR. So he got himself suspended -- still nothing.

Then it hit him: "Steve Smith punched out his teammate, Chad changed his name to Ocho Cinco. T.O. tried to kill himself with pills. I need to step up my game... I’ve got it -- I could shoot myself in the leg! Nobody’s ever done that! Then I’ll be the craziest WR ever!"

Burress was already out with a knee injury, and the injury report reads "P. BURRESS -- OUT (KNEE)", but I wish instead of the body part, they list the injury -- like "ACL TEAR". Because when his knee heals but he still can’t play due to being shot, the listing of "P. BURRESS -- OUT (THIGH)" just doesn’t tell the story like "P. BURRESS -- OUT (GUNSHOT WOUND)" would.

Then again, that point might be moot. NBC’s Peter King called it the "A 23 million dollar gunshot wound", referring to the non-guaranteed portion of Burress’s contract, and intimating the Giants might drop him as soon as the first chunk of that (for $1 million) is due on December 10th. That decision could be complicated by the fact Burress is reportedly facing gun charges. So it appears we may find out very soon just how much New York is willing to forgive in exchange for Burress's talent.

I think the biggest thing to come out of this whole thing is the realization that the Giants appear to be completely distraction-proof. They are 11-1, have won seven straight -- six against winning teams -- and have proven to be unaffected by injury, suspension, and now gunfire. Honestly, I think the only way to keep this team from winning is to blow up the team bus in the parking lot before they can get off.

Side note: I loved that NBC sent Tiki Barber on assignment out to Washington to cover the game, just so he could use his status as ex-teammate to get some on-camera quotes about the Burress situation from some Giants players. The highlight was Tiki delivering this breathless update from FedEx Field: "There’s been some reports that Derrick Ward was the third Giant player at scene, but I found out it was actually Ahmad Bradshaw."

Wait, so it wasn’t that one backup RB who was there but didn’t have anything to do with the incident, it was that other backup RB who was there but didn’t have anything to do with the incident? Thank god you were there to clear that up for us, Tiki!

HIT ME WITH YOUR BEST SHOT: If you missed the Pats/Steelers game this weekend, then you might want to check out this clip showing one of the very hardest hits I’ve ever seen. It may not have been completely ethical, it drew a flag, and will likely get tagged with a fine, but Ryan Clark’s de-cleater on Wes Welker over the middle has to go down as the most violent hit of the year so far. If you listen closely, you can hear Welker's I.Q. dropping as his head whiplashes back against the turf. The NFL: celebrating attempts to maim since 1922.

L.T. VS. M.T.: A ll the talk surrounding Michael Turner in his first year with Atlanta has been that he’s a breakout performer coming into his own. All the talk about LaDainian Tomlinson this season has been that he’s lost explosiveness and seems to be on the downside of his career. Though I agree Turner has been great , and LT has been just a shadow of his former self, it seemed ironic to me that they came into their game with the exact same amount of total yards from scrimmage (1,088) -- though much of that has to do with Turner’s shocking lack of receiving yards (11). I think that says a lot about expectations.

Sunday, it was another story. Or rather, it was the perceived story all along -- Turner dominated the game on the ground (31 carries and 120 yards, leading to a 35 minute time of possession for Atlanta), while LT struggled (14 carries, 24 yards -- though he did add 42 receiving yards). Atlanta’s 22-16 win kept the 8-4 Falcons in the heat of the playoff chase and put the final nail in 4-8 San Diego’s 2008 season.

Going forward, it appears Atlanta's only getting better. Meanwhile, San Diego, which failed to find a suitable trade for Turner before last season, has to wonder whether their window to win is closing. The RB position is a good example of this -- LT is still very good, but not good enough to keep a Super Bowl favorite from collapsing. Turner, on the other hand, is three years younger, has 2000+ less carries worth of wear and tear on his legs, and his best days still ahead.

In the end, this could be another Brees/Rivers situation, where San Diego may end up wondering if they made the right choice -- or how they might have at least better maximized the trade potential.

THE JOHN MCENROE "YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!" AWARD GOES TO...: The Oakland Raiders, for faking a 42-yard FG in the 2nd quarter of their game with the Chiefs so they could have their punter toss the ball to Sebastian Janikowski for a run on 4th and 10. There are so many things wrong with this idea, I don’t even know where to start. And that doesn’t even take into account the result fo the play: a fumble, recovered by Kansas City and returned for a TD -- a 10 point swing in a game the Raiders lost, 20-13.

Why make this call? Seriously, it’s so dumb, it actually makes me angry -- and I hate the Raiders. I could spend all day listing reasons why this was a bad choice, but I’ll just stick to my top three: 1) If you’re going to run a fake, 4th and 10 doesn’t seem like a real effective time to do it. Why not at least wait for a 4th and 5? 2) The FG was a relative chip shot for Janikowski, and the game was tied, so the game situation certainly didn’t call for it. 3) Janikowski is a fat ass, and was probably drunk at the time.

X-FACTOR: I’m not sure how much longer I can put personal favorite Peyton Hillis in this spot. Not because he’s not good enough, but because he’s too good. You can’t really be an "X-Factor" if you’re one of your team’s most prominently featured players, and Hillis is quickly becoming that. This week, he was not only Denver’s starting RB, but took each and every one of Denver’s 22 handoffs (What happened to the Mike Shanahan signature back rotation which has caused so many fantasy owners to curse his name to the heavens?). After a 129 yard day, and his third straight week with a TD, I don’t see any reason why he won’t be an every down back going forward.

LIES, DAMN LIES, & STATISTICS: QB’s are often judged on wins and losses, and while it’s slightly more fair than doing the same to evalute pitchers in baseball, the practice is still quite flawed. The Packers/Panthers game provided a good example of this: Aaron Rodgers was 26/45, 298 yards, 3 TD/1 INT, but still saw his team fall to 5-7 and likely out of the playoff chase, while Jake Delhomme (12/17, 177 yards, 0/0) was a winner despite -- or because of -- being asked to carry much less of the load.

GOAT OF THE WEEK: The Packers took the devastating loss despite outgaining the Panthers both on the ground and through the air, and dominating the time of possession. One of the big reasons was a huge mistake late in the game by Charles Woodson, a veteran who should know better.

The Packers led 31-28 with just 1:48 left as Carolina took over on its own 45. Woodson covered Steve Smith on a deep route down the seam, but got underneath help from LB Brandon Chillar, who stayed just a step behind behind Smith 50 yards downfield. So with that support, all Woodson had to do was not let Smith get behind him -- and he didn’t, staying a step ahead until right when Delhomme’s pass arrived. And that’s when he got greedy.

Woodson tried to be the hero, reaching up for the interception. But instead of leaping up to grab it at its highest point, he faded away from contact, failing to shield Smith from the ball. Smith took advantage, leaping up and snatching the ball away. Woodson then fell so far from the play, it was Chillar who had to track down Smith at the 1-yard line to make the tackle.

The Panthers didn’t actually take the lead until the next play, but Smith’s 54 yard grab was the play which essentially cost the Packers the lead, and ultimately the game. It’s the second game in a row where the Packers DB’s came up short in a crucial game. If they miss the playoffs they should know exactly where to place the blame.

IT’S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE CHRISTMAS: Every season there seems to be one week where all of a sudden it’s winter, and weather and field conditions become a major factor. This week was that week. Suddenly Sunday, it was the time of year when snow flurries, whipping winds, and driving rainstorms have major impacts on games. When where a team is playing can sometimes be just as important as who they’re playing.

The snow in Green Bay didn’t stop the teams from putting up 66 points. But the rain in New England, New York, Cleveland, Buffalo and Tampa seemed to affect play -- lots of fumbles, drops, and players slipping. The scores seemed to be affected as well, as two games were won by a team scoring 10 points -- 49ers 10, Bills 3 and Colts 10, Browns 6. Not surprisingly, dome teams saw their offense sputter. The Colts didn’t score an offensive TD, and Peyton Manning threw for just 125 yards (his lowest total in any non-final game of the year in three seasons) and 2 INT’s. The Saints were plagued by drops and slipping as they put up only 20 points and flubbed away their final chances to win.

It’s only going to get colder from here on out, which is good news for guys like me, who immediately find a game 200% more watchable when it starts snowing.

PATRIOTS SMACKED: The Patriots aren’t what they used to be, but they’re still one of the very last teams you’d expect into a pathetic heap at home in a late-season game with major playoff implications. But that’s exactly what they did against the Steelers on Sunday, fumbling and bumbling away a 10-10 halftime score into a 33-10 embarrassment.

Some signs of trouble emerged early, as twice Randy Moss dropped crucial passes to kill drives -- the first a deep crossing pattern at midfield, the second a sure TD pass in the final minute of the 1st Half. Even after the second drop, the Pats were tied at 10, and had a chance to take the lead going into the half, but Stephen Gostkowski shanked a short FG, and New England was denied.

In the second half, everything crumbled around them -- there were more drops, Matt Cassel (19/39, 169 yards, 0 TD/2 INT, 2 fumbles) wasn’t nearly as sharp as he had been the last two weeks, and they coughed up an amazing three fumbles in the space of just nine touches in the 3rd quarter. All while Belichick stood on the sideline, looking out from under his wet hoodie like a man with no answers.

The loss drops the Pats to 7-5, tied with Miami, one game out of both first place in the AFC East and also the last wild card spot (Baltimore and Indy are both 8-4). The good news for them is their upcoming schedule: Seattle next week and the Raiders after that.

X’S & OH’S: John Madden had the two best lines of the day. First, talking about Darren Sharper’s ugly attempt to tackle Devin Hester on the slant he too 65 yards for a TD vs. Minnesota: "Sharper has to make that tackle right there. I mean Hester made him look like he’d never played before."

Then, talking about how Chicago's defenders like to try to strip the ball : "The Bears have the best strippers in the league."

7 BURNING QUESTIONS:

1. Did you realize while you were scarfing down turkey and watching the Cowboys win on Thanksgiving, that the Niners were being eliminated from Wild Card contention? (It's true -- even if they win out and everything else breaks right, they would still lose a tie-breaker to Dallas.)

2. What was I thinking taking the Saints, a one-dimensional passing team against a team with a as good a defense as Tampa without even checking the weather (which was rainy)?

3. With the job Tony Sparano is doing improving Miami (7-5), along with the John Harbaugh engineering a turnaround for Baltimore (8-4), will we begin to see more new head coaches who’ve never been a coordinator in the NFL?

4. Did you know that on 4th down only the player who fumbles a ball can recover and advance it? (The Colts found this out the hard way when Peyton Manning ran a QB sneak on 4th and goal, fumbled and then saw Dallas Clark recover for a TD, only to have the refs disallow it and award the ball to Cleveland.)

5. Can anyone out there honestly say they predicted three NFC South teams would make the playoffs? (If the season ended today that’s what would happen.)

6. Has anyone ever seen their QB dissipate faster than Cleveland’s? (Two weeks ago, they started Quinn and backed him up with Anderson, next week they’ll start Ken Dorsey and back him up with some guy off the street -- Is Tim Couch still available?)

7. Since I’m already ragging on Cleveland: Is there a funnier sight in sports than Romeo Crennel running down the sideline waving his arms to get a timeout? (Follow-up question: If Crennel’s your head coach, shouldn’t you assign him a Designated Runner who’s shape doesn’t remind one of a Weeble?)

GAME TO WATCH IN WEEK 14: Tampa Bay (9-3) at Carolina (9-3) for 1st place in the NFC South on Monday night.

GAME TO NOT WATCH IN WEEK 14: Oakland (3-9) at San Diego (4-8) for 3rd place in the AFC West on Thursday night.

Something tells me not too many cable companies are going to get angry calls from viewers who are pissed they can't see this game on the NFL Network. In fact, they might even get a few thank you cards.

The pick: CHARGERS

Golden Nuggets: A win is a win is a win is a...

2008-12-01T10:52:37Z

I don't care how ugly it was, I don't care about anything right this very second other than the fact that we won.I feel good. I gotta say it, I do. We went out, faced a decent team on the East coast and pulled a win out of our respective (site decorum.) It wasn't pretty, it was downright ugly at times--but we did it nonetheless. We went out there and we finished. That's right, finished. The 49ers can finish a football game. I didn't think it were possible even if the fan in me wanted it to be so. But now I'm getting closer to being convinced that we're not a terrible team. With that being said, I'll provide you with some links to pool over as you hopefully enjoy this day for celebration.

John Crumpacker writes a good article which is to no surpirse, a wrap-up with some quotes thrown in. There's gonna be a lot of these folks, but agian I'll only post the ones worth reading. (SFGate.com)

Niner Insider gives a pretty decent summary of the drives/quarters as well as some postgame thoughts. (SFGate.com)

Gwen Knapp of the chronicle writes that our Niners are finally playing in the mold of Mike Singletary. Good stuff. (SFGate.com)

Here's an article about Nate Clements and Takeo Spikes' return to Buffalo. Nate thinks the fans still love him, despite the boos. After that performance, I'm starting to gain a bit more confidence in him. Lets see what he does vs the Jets. (SFGate.com)

Frank Gore is not happy with his performance. I wish he had done better, but I still commend him because he didn't stop fighting the whole game. (SFGate.com)

Up next we have the Jets. We can beat 'em. I know it. (SFGate.com)

Here's a couple post-game quotes and info from Maiocco. (PressDemocrat.com)

If you missed the game, reading Maiocco's live blog is always a good start in catching up. (PressDemocrat.com)

Matt also talks about how we finished for once. That's good, I hope we continue to do so. (PressDemocrat.com)

Always a good read, here's our resident Bills blog's post game article. (BuffaloRumblings.com)

Maiocco grades the Niners performace. I always love these. (PressDemocrat.com)

The team seems to have this overwhelming adoration for Singletary. Takeo Spikes even said the win came straight from him. (MercuryNews.com)

Daniel Brown talks about how us beating them hurts the Bills. Why does that make me smile? (MercuryNews.com)

Samuel Lam at Mining the Gold Rush gives a nice wrap-up for the game. (MVN.com)

The focus is on the kickers. Joe Nedney came through for us--not so much Lindell for the Bills. (SacBee.com)

Tim Kawakami admits some mistakes in believing that the Raiders are better than the Niners. I forigve you, slightly. (MercuryNews.com)

Here's a video of some highlights from the game. (NFL.com)

Don't call the 49ers spoilers. Patrick Willis doesn't like it--did you want to anger him? Didn't think so. This article may though. (49ers.com/ESPN.com)

Our defense played well. Now we just need some better red zone offense. (SacBee.com)

If you make the jump and read the rest of the links, I'll give you a cookie. I swear.

Here's more about Clements and his return to Buffalo. (PressDemocrat.com)

Mark Purdy says we can feel "tingly" about this win. (MercuryNews.com)

Here's the live blog from Matt Barrows, also quality material if you didn't catch the game or needed a refresher. (SacBee.com)

Here's Chrissy Mauck's post-game article over at Goal Posts on the official website. (49ers.com)

And once more from the official site, this one focusing on our offense and how it sort of disappeared after the first scoring drive. (49ers.com)

SacBee always provides quality post-game articles, and this wrap-up follows through. (SacBee.com)

Here's a pretty detailed recap of the game. The win was ugly, but it was a win. (MercuryNews.com)

To add variety to the recaps, here's another very detailed one. (NFLGridironGab.com)

And another one, this one from the official website. (49ers.com)

That's all I have for you now. I found a really weird article about Takeo Spikes' neck... but I didn't think it appropriate to post. I'll endeavor to update asap, and I hope you enjoyed. I leave you agian with... GO NINERS!

49ers 10 - Bills 3: Shank you very much

2008-11-30T21:26:57Z

It might have been a little ugly. No, check that. It was a LOT ugly. The 49ers were 3-27 in their last 30 in 10am starts and West Coast teams had not won on the East Coast all season. Well, that has all changed in what has to be the biggest win of the season for the 49ers. The 49ers 3 wins prior came against the Lions, Rams and the Seahawks...not exactly titans of terror. A win against a team desperate for a playoff spot is always a good win, especially when it comes on the road.

As many pointed out in the thread, there was a lot of bad in this game. Shaun Hill and Eric Heitmann continue to have trouble on that Center-QB exchange. Vernon Davis continues to make stupid plays. Mike Martz continues to make some rather stupid play calls late in the game with the lead. And of course, the defense continues its bending style, although there was no breakage today.

However, I think that one paragraph is enough coverage of the negatives for today. When you get something so rare as an East Coast win, you have to be pleased, no matter how it happened. Each unit made mistakes, but they also found ways to win this game and that should be accounted for.

Offense
Shaun Hill was not wildly impressive, but this might qualify as a Hill special: no killer turnovers and doing just enough to win the game. Frank Gore really struggled getting anything going, but he kept on grinding it out. He had a couple of solid runs in that first scoring drive and for the most part they did what they could to have him dictate the tempo of the game. What's really impressive is that the 49ers were outgained by 145 yards and ran quite few less plays, but were only out-possessed by 1 minute.

The highlight of the game though had to be Isaac Bruce absolutely schooling Leodis McKelvin on the first drive, including a touchdown reception that left McKelvin holding Bruce's jockstrap.

Defense
As ugly as the defense was at times, they did enough to prevent the Bills from getting into the end zone, whether it be Balmer's pass deflection or some really key sacks of J.P. Losman. Marshawn Lynch had a field day, but never got into the end zone. Fred Jackson is considered one of the under-the-radar impressive guys but he really did nothing and was stood up behind the line of scrimmage on several plays.

As has been stated, if the team is going to stick with the 3-4, a monstrous nose tackle like Terrence Cody is a must in this upcoming draft. A big guy taking up two offensive linemen would be the ticket for opening up more of a pass rush. Thankfully J.P. Losman did that for us today.

Special Teams
Joe Nedney had a big 51-yard field goal late in the first half, but more importantly was the play of Andy Lee. He continues to be just an absolute stud on punts. He didn't have any particularly stand out punts (like the 80+ yarder) but I think his play deserves extra recognition.

Coaching
As Grumpy Guy mentioned late in the game thread, Mike Singletary moved a step closer to dropping that interim title. And as everybody pointed out, and I agree, Mike Nolan's 49ers would have lost this game. Even when things started going a bit haywire, the team maintained its composure and I attribute that in part to the veterans and in larger part to Coach Singletary.

We'd probably all prefer to see the 49ers win blowouts and take care of business early. At the same time, there's something satisfying about your team gutting out a tough win on the road. As much as I'd like to see the 49ers shock the world and storm back to take the NFC West, I'm not holding my breath. The team just needs to show me continued improvements. Even with all the mistakes, going on the road and beating a .500+ team is an improvement no matter how you look at it.

I'd like to close though by presenting game balls to Rian Lindell and J.P. Losman. Lindell shanked a pair of field goals off the uprights and the first miss may have led in part to Dick Jauron's decision to go for it on 4th down later. Maybe that had nothing to do with it, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if it did. Leaving six points on the board was huge. As for Losman, he single handedly created a pass rush for the 49ers. When Edwards was in, even though he was throwing ugly incompletions, he seemed to have time in the pocket. Losman, on the other hand, seemed to get impatient and get happy-feet. A few moves and he was running into his own linemen and 49ers defensive linemen much of the second half. Whatever though, I'll take it any way I can get it.

Thanks to everybody who took part in the game thread. It was a stomach-churner of a game, but we certainly do enjoy a win and it's always fun shanking somebody else's playoff chances. Participants are listed after the jump and as always, check out the SB Nation NFL Hub at the link in the graphic for your up to date league info.

Name	# of Posts
bondslegend	110
foosball4949	101
Fooch	54
shlecko	33
pfzilla	29
Call It The Throw	26
Florida Danny	24
Bob On The Coast	23
SSreporters	19
Nosetackle Supreme	15
49erLou	14
Ninjames	13
groug	11
Josh from Hollywood	9
drink409	9
TripTheNinja	8
AndYourBirdCanSing	5
ramius	5
Grumpy Guy	4
anaheim angels	2
Muy Macho	2
wjackalope	1
marcello	1
Bitter Fan	1

San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills Open Thread

2008-11-30T17:30:06Z

Date: November 30, 2008
Time: 10:00am PST
Location: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Records: 49ers (3-8) Bills (6-5)
Bodoglife.com Spread: 49ers +6.5; Over/Under 43; Money Line: 49ers +240, Bills -280 - 49ers cover for the win and it goes over
Weather: 38°, 60% chance of rain/snow, Wind ESE 15mph
TV Broadcast: FOX - Ron Pitts, Tony Boselli, Charissa Thompson
Radio: 107.7 The Bone, 680/1050 KNBR - Joe Starkey, Gary Plummer, Rod Brooks
Spanish Radio: KIQI 1010-AM, KATD 990-AM - Fernando Arias and Ambrosio Rico
Bills Coverage: Buffalo Rumblings

Streaming Video Options

Sports Bar Thread

Week 13 Prediction Contest - Remember that if you don't get predictions in for the morning games you can still enter predictions for later games and get credit. You get credit for any predictions entered by kickoff of the given game. So, if you forget today, you can still predict the MNF game.

Injuries
49ers: Probable - LB Patrick Willis (hip), WR Jason Hill (groin); Questionable - WR Arnaz Battle (foot), WR Josh Morgan (groin), CB Walt Harris (hamstring); Out - FS Dashon Goldson (knee), KR Allen Rossum (ankle)

Bills: Questionable - DE Copeland Bryan (foot), LB Keith Ellison (ankle), TE Derek Schouman (hamstring); Doubtful - S Donte Whitner (shoulder); Out - CB Jabari Greer (Knee), LB Teddy Lehman (hamstring), TE Robert Royal (hamstring), DE Aaron Schobel (foot)

Numerous injuries have cropped up that might leave us with some new faces out there for the 49ers. Walt Harris finds himself questionable, which means we might get to see Tarell Brown make his first career start. If Harris is a no-go, that could also mean a boost in Reggie Smith's playing time. You never like to see injuries, but I've reached a point where I want to see what more of the young guys can do. Tarell Brown has shown talent in the secondary but if he's going to become a starter, we need to find out sooner rather than later.

It's going to be a tough game, particularly if Buffalo gets hit by a potential snow storm. The Rams win aside, the 49ers have to be desperate for a W. Of course the Bills are probably even more desperate to get a winning streak going. They're 6-5 and trailing in most of the tie breakers. I think it's time for the 49ers to put a serious crimp in the Bills playoff plans.

GO NINERS!

Golden Nuggets: Feelin' kinda Sunday..

2008-11-30T11:34:05Z

Hey everyone, James here and I gotta say I'm feeling pretty good. Of course, if ninety percent of predictions (figure pulled from thin air) are correct then I'll likely be pretty irked come the final whistle of today's game. It seems nobody is giving the Niners a chance and its probably due to blind fanboyism that I think they can win but I can legitly see us beating the Bills on several fronts. What it all boils down to I think will once again be our red zone offense. Can we score? Two field goals at six points looks a helluva lot less impressive than two touchdowns for fourteen points. All I know is, as a fan, I'm caustiously optimistic about today's game and I see it as something winnable. However, the pessimistic side of me fully expects to be in a rather bad mood come tomorrow morning when I post your links. So, I'll leave it at this before posting the links: GO NINERS!

The 49ers released LB Ahmad Brooks and signed WR Chris Hannon, the article also gives a little preview for todays game, analyzing a few key matchups. (SFGate.com)

Clements says last Sunday is behind him--he's focused and ready. I sure hope so because my confidence is just slightly diminshed. (SFGate.com)

Here's a pretty complete game preview from the Chronicle. (SFGate.com)

Matt Maiocco has a Q&A with some of the readers at PressDemocrat and gives some pertty insightful opinions on the state of the Niners. (PressDemocrat.com)

Here's another preview, this one focusing heavily on the bad weather we'll be playing in. (PressDemocrat.com)

He also analyzes a few key matchps for today's game. I just want to see Nate play well, that's all I want today. (PressDemocrat.com)

More about Clements, last weeks "torching," and how he feels coming into today. (MercuryNews.com)

Here's an article that stats the Niners are just a bit worse than the Raiders. Really? I don't even think Raiders fans think that. This article is a joke and you should get a pretty good laugh off from it. How they expect any future with Russell is beyond me but yeah--take a look. (I'll confess I didn't continue the article--but after reading the second "obvious" point in the article I laughed and decided to post.) (MercuryNews.com)

Another weather report, this time from Matt Barrows who also gives us some insight to the CB position for the Niners. (SacBee.com)

Here's this weeks scouting report from SacBee. (SacBee.com)

Samuel Lam gives a short preview for today's game. (MVN.com)

Here's a weather update for the game. (NFL.com)

NFL Game Center preview for today's game is here. (NFL.com)

Trent Edwards learned a lot from Bill Walsh, apparently. Are you intimidated? I think I should be, but I'm not. (SacBee.com)

We've got yet another article dealing with the instability of the interim head coach position. (InsideBayArea.com)

Here's another short preview. (InisdeBayArea.com)

Here's a good, informative, complete gameday preview. (49ersNews.com)

And finally, here's what our resident Bills blog thinks they have to do to beat us today. Boo and hiss accordingly. (BuffaloRumblings.com)

That's all for now, but expect some updates. Lets hope for a win guys, and I hope you enjoyed the links and are as pumped as I am.

Week 13 Prediction Games

2008-11-28T06:22:50Z

EDITOR'S NOTE 3:40PM: Just got back to SF so it's time to get this to the front page. Thanks to howtheyscored for putting up the previous post. Make sure you get your predictions in.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. I've sufficiently recovered from my food coma to get the games together for this week's prediction contest. I was not surprised that we saw some lopsided outcomes in the Turkey Day games, although the Philly-Arizona outcome did catch me by surprise. I actually thought the Cardinals could win that one. Guess Donovan McNabb isn't completely done yet.

We've got a continued big slate of games. With the Bears and Vikings squaring off, Green Bay needs to beat Carolina to capitalize on one of the two above teams losing.

So, let's get to the games:

49ers @ Buffalo - Sunday 11/30 1:05pm

Jacksonville @ Houston - MNF 12/1 5:30pm

Chicago @ Minnesota - SNF 11/30 8:15pm

Carolina @ Green Bay - Sunday 11/30 10:00am

NY Giants @ Washington - Sunday 11/30 10:00am

Pittsburgh @ New England - Sunday 11/30 1:15pm

Best of luck in what look to be a tough set of games yet again. Should make for an interesting weekend.

Get Your Predictions In!

2008-11-29T23:06:05Z

Fooch usually promotes the predictions thread to the front page on Saturdays, and I imagine that he doesn't mind my acting on his behalf this time. I think a lot of people seem to wait for the front page thread to go up to make their predictions, and it strikes me that it might just be because it's more visible there. Remember, if you're ever waiting to make your predictions, the thread is usually active by Thursday in the FanPost section of the site, over on the right sidebar.

In any case, we're getting down to the home stretch, and things are tightening up like crazy. For a while, it seemed as though wjackalope was going to run away with the prize, but it's recently turned into a legitimate four or five person race. And any perfect predictions could make it even tighter. And with a playoff birth and prizes on the line, every week counts.

Make your predictions here. It's another tough set of games this week. Good luck to all.

Golden Nuggets: Spikes and Clements to beast on old team? I hope.

2008-11-29T11:33:12Z

Morning, morning. Hope everyones doing fine today and I'm slowly getting pumped for Sunday. A little slower this week after last Sunday's loss, but whaddaya gonna do? I'm gonna put on the game and yell at my TV in anger (and hopefully joy) as if they can all hear me regardless. So here's to a good Sunday this week and here's your links and whatnot for today.

Takeo Spikes and Nate Clements are eager to play against their ex-team. They're also eager to destroy them. (SFGate.com)

Ah, an article I couldn't agree with more. Why no praise for Shaun Hill? Why no confidence? He's playing really well and I don't see why all of us are so keen on looking for a new quarterback next season. (SFGate.com)

Matt Maiocco breaks down the play of the offensive line in last Sunday's game. (PressDemocrat.com)

Matt also gives us a Q&A with Greg Manusky--just getting it out there: I don't like Manusky at all. There, I said it. Oh wait, I've already said that. Over and over. Here it is, anyway. (PressDemocrat.com)

I'm getting more and more convinced that Dominique Zeigler will return a punt or kickoff in Sunday's game. I'm excited--I hope he does well so people don't make fun of me. (PressDemocrat.com)

At least one part of our return game is in good hands--the hands of Delanie Walker. Lets hope he makes some history and takes one back for a touchdown Sunday, eh? (SacBee.com)

Takeo Spikes wont mind it is he gets booed by his old crowd--he's there to beat 'em. (And he better.) (InsideBayArea.com)

Manny Lawson talks about how he hates the cold in his blog. He's looking forward to hitting people very hard--so as to get numb and not feel it anymore. (49ersFaithful.net)

Patrick Willis needs to stop missing practices. He's scaring me--but he's back to full practice again. Here's a short injury update for the 49ers and for the Bills. (49ers.com)

Here's this week's always interesting Coordinators Corner. (49ers.com)

That's all for now guys, enjoy.

49ers Year-by-Year: 1966

2008-11-29T04:30:06Z

I hope you'll enjoy this historical recap of the San Francisco 49ers' 1966 season. 1966 was the season of the NFL-AFL merger. More important for the 49ers, though, was the emergence of multiple stars on offense in 1965, including the long-awaited breakout of quarterback John Brodie. How would they follow-up? Read on to find out. Also included is a short profile of former 49ers running back Ken Willard, a true star on the team for 9 great seasons.

* * *

Date:	Opponent:	Score:	Record:	Opponent's Record:
Sept. 11	Minnesota Vikings	T: 20-20	0-0-1	0-0-1
Sept. 25	@ Baltimore Colts	L: 14-36	0-1-1	2-1
Sept. 30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L: 3-34	0-2-1	3-1
Oct. 9	Green Bay Packers	W: 20-21	1-2-1	4-1
Oct. 16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W: 44-7	2-2-1	0-6
Oct. 23	Detroit Lions	W: 24-27	3-2-1	2-5
Oct. 30	@ Minnesota Vikings	L: 3-28	3-3-1	2-4-1
Nov. 6	Los Angeles Rams	W: 13-21	4-3-1	4-5
Nov. 13	@ Chicago Bears	T: 30-30	4-3-2	3-4-2
Nov. 20	Philadelphia Eagles	L: 35-34	4-4-2	6-5
Nov. 24	@ Detroit Lions	W: 41-14	5-4-2	4-7-1
Dec. 4	@ Green Bay Packers	L: 7-20	5-5-2	10-2
Dec. 11	Chicago Bears	W: 14-41	6-5-2	4-7-2
Dec. 18	Baltimore Colts	L: 30-14	6-6-2	9-5

Head Coach: Jack Christiansen

Key Losses: DT Karl Rubke, DB Jerry Mertens

Key Additions: TE Bob Windsor, DB Al Randolph, DB Mel Phillips, WR Dick Witcher

As the AFL finally emerged into a serious competitor with the NFL, first as a financial institution and ultimately as a talent draw, the so-called war between the two leagues reached a head in the mid 1960s. In June of 1966, in the best interests of both leagues, the AFL and the NFL reached an agreement on a merger.

At the time of the merger, the two leagues weren't fully integrated into each other. They had an uneven number of teams and retained separate schedules at first, meeting only one time at the conclusion of the season in what was called the AFL-NFL World Championship Game. Other provisions of the merger included an agreement that where the leagues had competing markets, the AFL team would pay the NFL team an indemnity (for instance, the Raiders would pay the 49ers an indemnity for existing in a competing market with San Francisco), that both leagues would draft in a common draft instead of competing for talent, and that the merged league would regularly expand until it had 28 total teams. The NFL also expanded by one team that year by granting a team to an ownership group in Atlanta, and naming the new team the Falcons.

1965 had been a relief for 49ers fans. After almost half a decade of floundering with the bottom feeders, they had turned a corner. They finally got consistent production out of the backfield thanks to newcomers John David Crow and Ken Willard. They found a playmaker in the passing game with electric wide receiver Dave Parks. Perhaps most importantly, though, John Brodie had a breakout season and finally won over the fans who had been struggling to accept him since the day he took over the starting job.

The beginning of the 1966 season was like a splash of cold water on all the warm and fuzzy feelings that had built up over the past year. As the offense struggled to find a rhythm, having a particularly difficult time on the ground, and as the defense remained typically awful, they opened the year with a tie and two losses. The difficult stretch was capped by a miserable 34-3 loss to the Rams in which they ran for a total of 53 yards and gave up 5 turnovers on offense.

Winless at 0-2-1, the last team that anybody would want to face had to be the perennially strong and currently undefeated Green Bay Packers. For the 49ers, it was exactly the matchup that they needed to kick start the season. With John Brodie struggling, the 49ers started third year player George Mira, but it wasn't the passing game that kept the 49ers in this game. In fact, it was by far the least productive game the 49ers had in the air all season, and George Mira didn't sniff another start for the rest of the year. The big difference this time was in the running game and the defense. Controlling the pace with 154 rushing yards, the 49ers rode 2 John David Crow touchdown receptions out of the backfield and one Matt Hazeltine fumble recovery and return for a touchdown to eek out a 21-20 win against one of the best teams in the league.

With that shot of confidence, the 49ers went forward swinging. They crushed the Falcons in Atlanta the following week, and then squeezed by Detroit at home to jump over .500 for the first time all year. And then a crushing visit to Minnesota reminded everybody that this was still the same team that went winless for nearly the first full month of the year.

The next week, the 49ers came out to exact sweet revenge on the Rams, who had humiliated them earlier in the season. From that point on, the offense kept rolling, and showed up again against the Bears. Unfortunately, no matter how good their offense was, the team still played awful defense, and they came away with their second tie of the year in a 30-30 shootout.

It was the same story the following week against the Eagles. Despite doing almost everything right on offense with a couple of touchdowns out of Brodie touchdowns and a dominating rushing attack, the defense gave everything back to Philadelphia and more, resulting in a 35-34 loss to drop back to .500.

Already out the race to the Championship game, the season was effectively over. After handling a bad Lions team, the 49ers had a chance to play spoiler against the Packers, who they had already beaten once. The Packers were simply the better team, though, and the 49ers fell without putting up much of a fight. They split their final two meaningless games to get out of a disappointing season at .500.

Player Profile: Ken Willard

Ken Willard was halfback/fullback who was drafted by the 49ers in 1965, and remained with the team for all but one year of his ten year career. A constant presence in the lineup during his time with the team, he only missed 8 games during the nine years he played for the 49ers.

For his career, Willard ran for 6105 yards, 5930 of which were with San Francisco. A strong runner and a capable pass catcher, Willard also had 277 career receptions for 2184 yards.

When he retired, his 5930 yards in a 49er uniform were good for second on the team's all-time list. To this day, he remains third behind only Joe Perry and Roger Craig. His 45 rushing touchdowns are also third on the team's all-time list behind only Perry and Craig.

Willard enjoyed his greatest season in 1968, rushing for a career high 967 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4.3 yard average. He was elected to the Pro Bowl as a rookie in 1965, and three times later in 1966, 1968, and 1969. To this day, Willard ranks among the all-time great 49ers, and should be remembered among the likes of some his more famous teammates.

Primary References:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/1965_roster.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL-NFL_Merger
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_NFL_season#The_AFL-NFL_merger_agreement
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/1966.htm
http://www.databasefootball.com/teams/teamleaders.htm?tm=sfo&lg=nfl
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WillKe02.htm