Quick Update - WILLIS GONE

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 8:11 AM PDT in NFL Draft

I've thrown up an updated poll. Barring a huge turnout for Carriker in the next hour I'm going with Branch. I feel he has such a bigger upside.

Buffalo traded up over us to select Patrick Willis. I've posted a new poll. I think we'd be foolish to go with anybody but Branch at this point. Yes he's a risk, but people thought Warren Sapp was a risk going into the draft and he worked out pretty well. Branch may not turn into Warren Sapp, but the physical tools are there for him to be a great lineman for the next decade. Thoughts? I'm looking to get our pick in soon to keep some momentum going in this draft.

Tweet Comment 40 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Trade with Denver

We had an offer from them discussed before, and that's the direction we should go. I think it's possible Carriker could drop to us, but if not Harrell, Nelson, Merriweather, Ginn, Meachem, Bowe, and Posluszny could all be available. We have more options at #21 than we do at #11, and the extra picks we add could help snag a second 1st round pick.

by gatling on Apr 3, 2007 8:20 AM PDT reply actions

Branch

If we passed on Branch how long do you think he'd last? I say we try to trade down to that spot and take Branch while picking up a few picks.

PT-42

by norcaldevilasu on Apr 3, 2007 8:23 AM PDT reply actions

Deal

The offer was #21 (1st round), #56 (2nd round) and #86 (latter 3rd round) for our #11 pick and our #104 pick. Thoughts?

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 8:23 AM PDT reply actions

Trade

The positive of a trade is that with extra picks we could deal from the top of the 2nd into the first and possibly snag a guy like Harrell along with a wide receiver...

The negative is that I still think Alan Branch can be a playmaker for us. While we would get talent at the end of the first round, Branch has show on the field what he can do.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions

don't trade back.

If we want somebody late in the first or early in the 2nd we can trade up later. Don't let the Anti-Branch camp convince you that this isn't the pick. 11 picks with 11-12 mill cap space? Are we still at the point of quantity over quality in our franchise?

by enut21 on Apr 3, 2007 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions

agree

We're definitely not in need of quantity...I'm still in the pro-Branch camp. Just intriguing to see people (professionals included) souring on Branch so quickly.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions

Doesn't that concern you?

If teams and "experts" are souring on him, why would you take that kind of risk for a team on the cusp of the playoffs? If Branch is the lazy player it sounds like he is, then we've wasted a prime opportunity for our franchise. I'm also not sure that Mike Nolan would take on a potential problem child like Branch. It doesn't seem to be his style.

by gatling on Apr 3, 2007 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions

Thoughts

We're doing three rounds here right? Would Branch have more of an impact than the players we'd be able to grab at #21, #56, and #86? I doubt it. At #21, we'd be able to grab say Justin Harrell for a DE spot. At #42, we could add NT Tank Tyler or OT Tony Ugoh. At #56, we could nab a WR like Craig Davis or Jason Hill. In the 3rd round, we could add ILB Buster Davis at #76, RB Michael Bush at #86, and OL Ryan Harris or Josh Beekman at #97.

We could end up with anywhere from 3-5 starters and and 1-3 key role players this way, which I think is something hard to pass on.

by gatling on Apr 3, 2007 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Positive of trading

While I'm in the pro-Branch camp, I would have to agree that we could add some additional quality depth with additional picks.

When it comes to bad guys in the NFL, there have been plenty that turn out alright and plenty who are washed out of the league within a couple years.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions

trading down

So you are willing to give up on Branch so we can have 9 picks on day 1 instead of 8? I think its a terrible idea to trade out of a position to get the best NT in the draft, when that is by far our greatest need. I think we should trade #21 as well for a 2nd and 2 3rds. Lets get 13 picks in this draft. Afteer thhat we can deal our 2nd rounders for 3rd and 4th's and we can have 14 picks in the 3rd and 4th round.

by enut21 on Apr 3, 2007 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Best NT

When people say Best NT, by how much? I mean, REALLY. What do you look for in an NT? What makes Branch better than the other potentials (i.e. Tyler, Soliai).

When I think of an NT, there are physical AND mental tools they need. Physically, size and strength are obvious. Mentally, they must be willing to work hard, as they're doing all of the grunt work that is very underappreciated.

If Branch has questions on his motivation and/or work ethic, how can you believe that he'll give you 100% every play he is on the field? You can't.

Now I'm not going to say that Soliai or Tyler have more work ethic or they're more motivated. It's just that taking that chance on a player in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round hurts less in the long run if the player fails.

You can make the argument that 3-4 DE is also one of the team's biggest needs and that Carriker is best 3-4 DE. He has leadership molded in his mind. His motor never stops. He works hard and is WILLING to do all of the grinding and dirty work that is required of a 3-4 defensive lineman. He IS the pick.

by sfgfan on Apr 3, 2007 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Exactly

Are you really willing to risk the highest pick we should have over the next 5-7 years on a guy who could washout due to lack of motivation and work ethic? We have a playoff team here, we have a few needs and adding the extra picks in the Denver deal allows multiple ways to fill them. The gamble on Branch could hurt this team more long term than taking him and him panning out could help.

by gatling on Apr 3, 2007 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions

Denver offer

Well Denver actually adjusted there offer and took out the 86th pick. So basically they are offering their 1st and 2nd for our 1st.

Personally, I feel dropping 10 spots in the first round is not worth just a late second round pick.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions

I agree

You can't make that trade. With that option out, Carriker should be the pick.

by gatling on Apr 3, 2007 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions

what about Okoye?

c'mon we were all hot on him for a while. Its our pick, he's on the board, why not?

but then again what the heck do I know? answer: nuthin.

Bring back the classic Uni's!

by wjackalope on Apr 3, 2007 8:50 AM PDT reply actions

Okoye

While I like Okoye's youth and personally think he could be converted to fit our needs, I definitely see the point in arguing that he's more of a project that still could just end up being a 4-3 DT. If the 49ers drafted him in real life I wouldn't have a problem with it, but in regards to this mock draft I don't think he would best fit our needs.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Trading Discussions

Discussions with the Broncos appear to have broken down and barring a last minute development the 49ers will be moving forward with Alan Branch.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 8:57 AM PDT reply actions

Carriker

I still prefer this guy over Branch.

by sfgfan on Apr 3, 2007 9:05 AM PDT reply actions

If the trade is off...

then Carriker should be the pick.

by gatling on Apr 3, 2007 9:07 AM PDT reply actions

Yes

by sfgfan on Apr 3, 2007 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions

Options

Trading down is officially out of the question. It comes down to Branch and Carriker. I think Branch has the higher upside, while Carriker is a safer pick and will still provide an impact on the defensive line.

The vote is starting to swing towards Carriker so there is definitely a divide here.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 9:12 AM PDT reply actions

New poll

A quick new poll with only Branch and Carriker should go up. My vote was for trade down, but it's for Carriker now. Give it an hour or two and see what shakes out with only the two choices.

by gatling on Apr 3, 2007 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Whats next?

Are you guys gonna suggest drafting Reggie Mcgrew again over Branch? Unreal

by enut21 on Apr 3, 2007 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions

Please

Don't start comparing Carriker to McGrew. If anything, Branch is a closer comparison.

by sfgfan on Apr 3, 2007 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions

Huh?

I wasn't comparing Carriker to Branch. I'm saaying at this point you guys would rater have Mcgrew then Branch. Thats how silly you guys are acting.

by enut21 on Apr 3, 2007 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions

And..

... you are inferring this how? We're saying that a solid guy like Carriker should be the choice over Branch. It's not like we're saying waste the pick or squander it on some super reach.

As I look at the first round board, its hard to force myself to want pick Branch. He just doesn't seem to fit in Nolan's tight ship. It's almost like trying to jam a square peg into a round hole.

by sfgfan on Apr 3, 2007 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Passion

I think no matter what happens, this mock draft is proving to be a success simply for the passion it's eliciting from you guys.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 9:22 AM PDT reply actions

Pick

While I think Alan Branch has bigger upside, I am open to the realization that he simply isn't a Nolan type of guy. Mike Nolan has spent the last two years cleaning house of guys who clearly were not suited to a Nolan team.

Adam Carriker on the other hand seems to be that kind of guy. I want this pick to be a combination of what the site thinks the 49ers should do and what I think the 49ers WOULD do in this position. If it came down to Carriker vs. Branch I predict the 49ers would select Carriker.

One interesting note about Carriker is that Warren over at Draft Tek has seen Carriker's stock move above even Jamaal Anderson of Arkansas. Carriker is no slouch and I agree that defensive end is a need position in the 3-4. While I doubt I'll be taking Tank in the 2nd round, we can fill that need at some point.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 9:46 AM PDT reply actions

Sounds good

Carriker here and Soliai in the 3rd? I think that was where DraftTek had Soliai when I looked earlier. I'll check again in a minute or two.

by gatling on Apr 3, 2007 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions

4th round

DraftTek has Soliai going in the 4th round, we'd be able to grab him at pick #110 for sure by their mock. Carriker, Soliai, and DeOssie would be nice pickups on defense.

by gatling on Apr 3, 2007 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions

Soliai

I've read that while most people are projecting him to go in the 4th, it wouldn't be a surprise if he went during the 3rd. Reason being, many teams are looking for those "space eaters", and Soliai would be one of the remaining ones left (with a good balance of size and ability) come the third round.

Would taking him with the 3rd round compensatory be too big of a reach? I know DraftTek has him going toward the bottom of the 4th, but they aren't necessarily the end-all of where players get picked.

Basically, would filling that need with Soliai be worth reaching almost a full round for? (Especially considering this mock is only going 3 rounds).

by sfgfan on Apr 3, 2007 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Quite possibly

If we go with Soliai with #97, we could use our 2nd rounder on a WR, and #76 on Michael Bush, just so Brakeneck's head doesn't explode.

by gatling on Apr 3, 2007 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions

heads exploding

If we did take Bush his head might still explode!

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions

Here's to hoping...

... that Sidney Rice is available in the second.

by sfgfan on Apr 3, 2007 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Re:

I know that the primary argument for Carriker is that he's the "safe" choice. But it's not just that simple.

It's not that Nolan doesn't take certain risks on character (see: Antonio Bryant). He only takes those risks if he knows it won't hurt the team in the long run if the player fails.

In Bryant's case, cutting him doesn't hurt the 49ers for the next 3-5 years. If Branch fails (after drafting him in the 1st round), then it WILL hurt the team for an extended period of time. First, his signing bonus would be bigger (and over more years) than Bryant's was. Second, the 49ers have lost someone that SHOULD have been a potential starter for "below market value" for 3-5 years.

In many circumstances, the "safe" choice is often also the dramatically less fruitful choice. I just don't believe that is the case here. As Fooch mentioned, Carriker is no slouch. He is a solid player that has the ability to become a solid (if not elite) contributor for the 49ers for years to come.

by sfgfan on Apr 3, 2007 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions

ummm

"If Branch fails (after drafting him in the 1st round), then it WILL hurt the team for an extended period of time."

What a dumb argument...same can be said if Carriker or Patrick "Jesus" Willis fail.

by enut21 on Apr 3, 2007 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions

Selective reading

It's true that any first round prospect can hurt a team for an extend period of time. That wasn't the only part of my argument. Following along with the rest of the argument, it is believed that Branch is the BIGGER risk TO FAIL during that time.

Sure, Carriker can fail too. But if I had to bet on one or the other to succeed, I'd go with Carriker, hands down.

by sfgfan on Apr 3, 2007 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions

at the same time

If I had to pick a potential perrenial pro-bowler between Carriker and Branch it would be Branch. Branch has a higher ceiling than Carriker. Greater risk, greater reward.

by methodrampage on Apr 3, 2007 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Agree

I don't think there's any doubt that Branch provides greater upside. Personally, I think the team takes Carriker but I honestly would not be disappointed in the least if they took Branch with that 11th pick. Personally, I see it as a win-win situation.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 3, 2007 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions

the 11th pick and beyond

If we select a top player in this draft that will help to improve our front seven and complete the transition to the prefered 3-4, our team is headed to the playoffs. Willis-LB, I like Okoye at NT or DE because he's strong enough to hold up against a OT and he's quick enough to pressure the QB, Carricker DE would also be solid, and even Branch at NT or DE would be an upgrade from where we are presently. BY, Nolan and Singltary are perfect individuals to lead Branch or Okoye in the right direction. Most importantly we should draft the best available player at the time, that is what New England does. They don't get bogged down with skipping players with more talent to select a player that meets a specific need, especially with the early selections (improve the talent level of your team at all times).

We could then use the 2nd round pick to get a WR- move up for Meachem / Bowe or stay at #42 and pick Hill, a ILB- like Siler, a pass rushing OLB move up for Spencer / Moss or stay at #42 for Woodly. I am against selecting NT Tank, because of his poor showing at the Senior Bowl. Yes, he is strong, but he is so slow off the ball that smaller more quicker OLmen were able to get into him and drive him off the ball and on some occasions put him on his back. So, it does bother me to read comments that we can pass on a DL player and take Tank inthe 2nd. He would not solve our problems.

We could also get the impact play at 11 and move up from the 3rd rd and get another second. This would allow us to select DL- 11, WR-42 and the best available LB at 50-5?. We could then focus on adding depth with the remaining picks. I think I like this last idea the best please give me feedback.

I love the moves this off season and we are sitting in a great position in this year draft. (numerous extra picks)

by alliyah1122 on Apr 7, 2007 8:07 AM PDT reply actions