Just wanted to say I am praying for your semi scenario to become a reality! I am just waiting for our team to finally breakout and reclaim the proud franchise superiority! I hate to say this, but the season rest on the shoulders of Alex Smith. If he can produce decent numbers we will be in the hunt; however, if not it will be a very long season. Do not get me wrong I love the kid, but NFL and its fans do not have patience especially for a 1st round draft pick. Thanks for the great blog post.

worst case scenario:
frank gore gets hurt early in the season and misses significant playing time. consequently the offense ends up being mediocre. the 49ers end up losing a bunch of close games and finish the season with only around 5 to 6 wins.

best case scenario:
alex smith improves. the defense improves. and frank gore has another awesome season. the 49ers win the division, win a playoff game or two and then make it to the NFC championship game, but lose and end up one game shy of the super bowl.

i could see either one of those happening but thats on the extreme end of things for both. instead, i think the niners will win around 9-10 games; could make the playoffs if they do then i think it would be in the wild card round and maybe win a playoff game. that i think is a very likely outcome to the season.

The funny thing is that it's almost impossible to predict how an NFL team will do, although every week people put up their money because they think they can.

A couple of bounces of the ball can put a mediocre team into the playoffs or keep a great team out. Because teams have such big rosters, and backups play such a large part, and because rosters turn over so much, it's harder to judge a team's talent versus other sports like baseball or basketball. And careers can be much shorter. Someone can be, say, a great defensive back for two or three years and by the time the average fan notices him his career is already on the slide. Coaching and teamplay is so much more important in football than other sports, and a great offensive lineman can look like a fool if the guy next to him doesn't do his job, or if the blocking scheme is off. A defensive back who can cover a receiver for a fraction of a second longer can give a blitzing linebacker a sack, and a defensive end that can't open up the other team's O-line can make a cornerback look terrible. On TV the camera may never show where the game is won or lost. And most of what happens in practice is unknown to the fan. As much as we study the game, we still don't know.

So a lot of what we fans predict is a mixture of hope and despair. We want something great to happen, we fear it won't, and we don't have enough information to make a decent prediction. That's why gamblers love us.

I think that the Niners will get nine, maybe ten wins this year, but what can I base it on? Our roster? Alex Smith's work in the weight room last winter? What the coach says in interviews? The Rams from last year? How I think the new coaching staff in Arizona will respond? The Seahawks' reputation over the last couple of years? How do you weigh the drafts of one team over another, especially since a knee injury in week one could make a great draft a lousy one?

I have a couple of premonitions: I think the Niners will be noticably better, and probably will be in the playoffs. I think that the Cardinals' O-line is still bad and I believe E. James will get old this year. I think the Niners' defense will eventually be a lot better this year, and I think the offense will be much better. I have a feeling that the Steelers will be a lot weaker this year, the Giants are going to fall apart. The Colts will lose at least three more games this year. The Chargers will lose a couple more games than last year (and it will all be blamed on Norvell). The Bears will regret sticking with Grossman and trading their great running back. The Saints' defense will deteriorate and their offense won't be able to compensate for it. The Bucs will step up a little.

Who knows if any of this stuff will happen?

I think making predictions gives each person a sense of control over the scary future. That's why most of us believe in heaven although reports from those who've already gotten there have been sketchy at best. It's the excitement we all feel in our guts before every game. Go Niners!

We start the season with 7 of our 8 or 9 toughest games.

 Mon 9/10  Arizona  10:15 pm
 Sun 9/16  at St. Louis  1:00 pm
 Sun 9/23  at Pittsburgh  1:00 pm
 Sun 9/30  Seattle  4:05 pm
 Sun 10/7  Baltimore  4:15 pm
   bye  
 Sun 10/21  at NY Giants  1:00 pm
 Sun 10/28  New Orleans  4:15 pm

If we can go  3-4 or 4-3 after these 7, I like our chances to win 10 games this year.

The 49ers are expected to announce a couple of roster moves soon.  The 49ers are supposedly pulling Atiyyah Ellison from the Raven's practice squad, but in order to do that, someone from the 53-man roster needs to be moved.

It'll be interesting to see who gets moved to make room.  My guess is that it'll be Navies, Strickland or Brown.  

There is always the possibility that the team has found a suitor for Harris or Smiley in exchange for a draft pick.  It's a very slim chance, but it exists nevertheless!

King Kaufman, who covers sports for Salon.com, hates the Niners, roots openly for the Rams, and says that the Niners will win the NFC West this year.

Time for Vernon Davis to start opening up the middle with big-time pass receptions, or Delanie Walker will do it. Time for Alex Smith to step up. What did the Chambers Brothers sing? Time has come today.