San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: A Prospector's Guide
The 49ers look to get back on the winning track against a quirky Jacksonville Jaguars squad. I have always been intrigued by the Jaguars because something doesn't add up about them. They are 6-4, but something just seems off about that. Going through their 2009 statistics (listed at the bottom), I noticed that they've been outscored this season by 36 points. The only other team above .500 with a negative scoring differential is Denver (-13)...and I've always questioned Denver's early success (which is certainly bearing fruit now). Will the Jaguars keep it up the rest of the season?
The 49ers host the Jaguars in what will be the 3rd meeting between the two teams in the series, and the first at Candlestick Park. The last time the two teams squared off was in 2005 in Jacksonville, when the Jaguars defeated the 49ers 10-9.
The 49ers enter the upcoming game following a 30-24 loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field last weekend. In that game, the Packers defense was able to hold off a second half surge by the 49ers offense to seal the victory. QB Alex Smith connected on three touchdown passes in the final two quarters of play, which included a 38-yard strike to rookie
WR Michael Crabtree for his first career touchdown, a 24-yard toss to TE Vernon Davis for his 8th score of the season and a 10-yard pass to RB Frank Gore, marking his 4th consecutive game with a touchdown.
The 49ers have won 6 out of their last 8 games at Candlestick Park. In those games, San Francisco has rushed for over 100 yards in all but one contest.
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Golden Nuggets: Suffer with me!
Morning, folks. I'm not even supposed to be here today! Anybody who can tell me what that's from likely has a pretty good taste in movies. Still, I hadn't planned on doing the Nuggets tonight until a few hours ago when I found out I'd be available to do them, so here I am! You guys don't have to suffer without me, but as fans of a losing team you can suffer with me! I don't have very many links for you today, however, and I am in a bit of a hurry. So with that in mind I'm going to get right to them.
Here's a bit of a preview for the upcoming game against Jacksonville. (49ers.com)
The 49ers need continuity on offense.. I guess, I mean, it's not like the offense is showing anything.. (PressDemocrat.com)
I guess that's what we get, as Singletary seems to be stubborn and won't be making any major changes. (SFGate.com)
Here's a case for keeping the current coaching staff and what not how it is.. meh. (MercuryNews.com)
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Random 49ers Roster Facts and Figures
I'm sitting here in Seattle at Sea-Tac International Airport waiting for my shuttle bus and I thought I'd roll out a random post for you. Well first, normally I'm a fan of San Francisco International Airport. It's nice looking, easy to get to on BART, and all around an ok experience. My problem with them is their lack of Internet, or more specifically, FREE Internet. I don't travel a ton, but SFO is on a short list of airports without free wifi. The ones that do have it? Las Vegas, Portland, OR, Oakland (as I found out today) and Seattle (actually only free until January 15 in a holiday deal with Google, but it's free while I'm here, so there!). Anyways, SFO needs to get with the program. The good news is I've been able to get some posts schedule in case I have any Internet issues over Thanksgiving.
For now though, I was putting together the Prospector's Guide for tomorrow, which is culled from the weekly game release the 49ers send out. It includes a whole bunch of random information on every random topic you can imagine. I might try to upload them to the site at some point for folks to check out if they're bored. But I noticed something today I had missed in the past. A small little part with roster facts and figures. I know some folks like to blow friends away (or possibly scare them) with their amazing 49ers knowledge. So, here are some random facts and figures about your 2009 San Francisco 49ers.
Oldest 49ers player: K Joe Nedney, 36, Born 3/22/73
Youngest 49ers player: QB Nate Davis, 22, Born 5/5/87
Most seasons as a 49er: LB Jeff Ulbrich (IR), TE/LS Brian Jennings - 10
Most NFL seasons: WR Isaac Bruce – 16th
Most Consecutive starts: 133, DE Justin Smith
Most Consecutive Games Played: 133, DE Justin Smith
Most Playoff Experience: 9 games, WR Isaac Bruce and S Michael Lewis
Heaviest 49er: G David Baas, DE/DT Isaac Sopoaga– 330 lbs.
Tallest 49er: T Adam Snyder, T Tony Pashos (IR) - 6-6
Shortest 49er: RB Frank Gore – 5-9
Former 1st round draft picks: 10 – DE Kentwan Balmer, CB Nate Clements, WR Michael Crabtree, TE Vernon Davis, LB Manny Lawson, QB Alex Smith, DE Justin Smith, LB Takeo Spikes, T Joe Staley and LB Patrick Willis
Pro Bowlers: 9, CB Dre’ Bly, WR Isaac Bruce, CB Nate Clements, RB Frank Gore, TE/LS Brian Jennings, P Andy Lee, S Michael Lewis, LB Takeo Spikes and LB Patrick Willis
Coaches who played in the NFL: Mike Singletary, Greg Manusky, Mike Johnson, Vance Joseph, Johnnie Lynn, Tom Rathman
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Week 11 Statistical Matchup Review: 49ers @ Packers
AUTHOR'S NOTE: I totally forgot to mention when I laid out the new schedule last week that I'll be posting a matchup review article every Tuesday. So, basically, my posting schedule will have you getting sick of me in no time. Just wanted to warn you.
Welcome to the first installment of my weekly matchup review articles in 2009. As I said last week, the format of these posts should be familiar to you if you were around last season. If not, the basic idea of this post is to look back at Sunday's (or Thursday's or Monday's) game, and see how the 49ers did in each of the key matchups I identified prior to the game.
Despite what some might think, I'm not an insider at Football Outsiders (FO), so I don't have access to the exact equation for DVOA or any of their other stats. Therefore, in my matchup review, I won't be saying, "Here's what DVOA said going into the game, and here's their actual DVOA for this matchup during the game." Instead, I simply look back at the play-by-play, aggregate the raw numbers for each matchup, consider the specific game situations that might have affected the numbers, and offer a quasi-objective evaluation of the Niners' performance in the matchups.
So, with the aims and methods revealed, it's time to review the matchups.
TEAM MATCHUP # 2: SF OFFENSE VS. GB DEFENSE ON 3RD AND LONG
For the moment, I'm going to ignore Team Matchup #1 (i.e., SF OFF's in-season trend vs. GB DEF's in-season trend) because I'll actually be able to give you the DVOA stats on that one once FO posts them this afternoon. So instead, I'll begin with Team Matchup #2. As you'll recall (See here if you don't), my bottom line about Team Matchup #2 was that the 49ers' OFF needed to perform a lot better than expected on 3rd & long because (a) they've sucked at it this season, and (b) GB's DEF has been awesome at it. Specifically, GB's DEF had a mind-blowing 119.3% DVOA advantage going into the game. So how did the Niners do? Based on the play-by-play, below is a table showing the game time, field position, play, and result of every 3rd & long the 49ers' OFF faced on Sunday (successful plays are in bold):
|
Distance |
Yardline |
Quarter |
Time Left |
Score |
Type of Play |
Direction |
Play |
Yards |
|
7 |
SF 19 |
1 |
1:43 |
SF 3 - GB 6 |
Pass |
NA |
Smith sacked |
-2 |
|
7 |
SF 23 |
2 |
11:25 |
SF 3 - GB 6 |
Pass |
Short Right |
Incomplete to Bruce |
0 |
|
19 |
SF11 |
2 |
8:08 |
SF 3 - GB 13 |
Pass |
Short Right |
Complete to Crabtree |
6 |
|
9 |
SF 20 |
2 |
2:00 |
SF 3 - GB 20 |
Pass |
Short Left |
Complete to Davis |
4 |
|
10 |
GB 36 |
3 |
12:12 |
SF 3 - GB 23 |
Pass |
Short Left |
Complete to Hill |
8 |
|
20 |
GB 38 |
3 |
7:35 |
SF 3 - GB 23 |
Pass |
Deep Left |
Complete to Crabtree |
38TD |
|
8 |
SF 14 |
3 |
2:29 |
SF 10 - GB 23 |
Pass |
Short Right |
Incomplete to Davis |
0 |
|
10 |
GB 24 |
4 |
10:42 |
SF 10 - GB 30 |
Pass |
Deep Middle |
Complete to Davis |
24TD |
After the jump, I'll discuss why this table means one of two people needs a stern talking-to, and I'll review the rest of the matchups...
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A World Turned Upside Down: Week 11 in the NFL
When General Cornwallis and the British army surrendered to General Washington and the Continental army to end the Revolutionary war, the British played the song, "A World Turned Upside Down". After all, that's how the world seemed to them. How else could they explain how the rag tag continental army could defeat the greatest army in the world at that time? On Sunday, several teams probably felt the same way. How could the Bengals lose to the Raiders? How could the Steelers lose to the Chiefs? How could the Broncos go from a 3 1/2 game lead, to a 1 game deficit in only 4 weeks? And how could the Browns blow a 21 point lead and lose to the Lions? OK, maybe not the last one. This is the Browns we're talking about after all. But how did the Browns blow a 21 point lead against one of the worst teams in the NFL?
Browns 37, Lions 38
No one outside of Cleveland and Detroit had any interest in this game going into Sunday, but without a doubt, this was the best game of the week. The much maligned Browns offense finally got on track in this game, scoring more points in the first quarter (24) than they had scored in an entire game (20) on the season. And they had to feel pretty good about their chances of getting their second win with an early 24-3 lead. But Matthew Stafford and the Lions fought back. Stafford completed 26 of 43 passes for 422 yards and become the youngest QB ever to throw 5 TD's in one game. But the most important pass thrown by Stafford didn't even show up on the stat sheet. Trailing 37-31 with only seconds left in the game, Stafford threw a "Hail Mary" from mid field that landed harmlessly in the endzone. Unfortunately for the Browns, a pass interference penalty was called on Hank Poteat, so the Lions got one free untimed play from the 1 yard line. Stafford was hit hard on the "Hail Mary" throw and wasn't able to come out for the play, so the Lions sent out a cold Daunte Culpepper. Luckily, Brown's coach Eric Mangini called a time out, allowing Stafford time to get fixed up and back out on to the field. Stafford threw his 5th TD and the Lions won. Lions coach Jim Schwartz said afterwards, "It's a game that you either win or you lose." That's deep, Captain Obvious. Ever thought of putting that on a bumper sticker?
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49ers QB issues: Marc Bulger for the short term anyone?
Before anybody loses their lunch over this, or flips out on me, I'm just posting this out of curiosity. I'm not advocating one way or the other on this. So take a deep breath before posting your response.
The Rams announced yesterday that QB Marc Bulger is likely to miss 3-6 weeks with a broken tibia. In reporting on this, Mike Sando commented that this could be the end for Bulger in St. Louis. He's scheduled to make $8.5 million next season and has three years after that worth almost $30 million. As Sando said, it "was going to make it tough for the Rams to justify keeping him unless Bulger played at a high level while the Rams won a few games down the stretch." Over the course of this season, Bulger has had two good to really good games: last week against New Orleans (26/40, 298 yards, 2/1) and a few more weeks before that at Jacksonville (22/34, 213 yards, 1/1). Not great, but certainly some skilled performances.
Is that enough to warrant bringing him back in St. Louis? I don't know their cap space, and I don't know what their plans are with what will be a very high draft pick. But say St. Louis decided to release him to start clearing up cap space. I've said it in the comments somewhere else, and I'll say it again, the current crop of free agent quarterbacks is rather miserable. Your two best QB options are Kyle Orton and Jason Campbell. Some may like one or the other, but clearly this is not a high caliber group.
And so I thought I'd at least put this out there for people to chew on. Say the end of the season arrives, and Alex Smith has not really shown enough to warrant keeping him around. And say you improve the offensive line in the offseason, because whomever is there will need to be kept alive in some fashion. Whether you go look to groom Nate Davis, or you decide to draft a young QB high in the draft, would you bring in Bulger for a Chris Chandler type of role (mentoring Steve McNair)? A guy who can play for a year or two and bring more than Trent Dilfer brought to the table. A guy who can help you develop that young QB.
I'm not saying this has any remote chance of happening. And even if it was on the radar, I'm not saying I'd agree or disagree with such a move at this point. Bulger has struggled the last three or so years, but one can say that has coincided with some miserable Rams teams that have combined for 6 wins during that time. I'm not saying it would work, but is anybody intrigued by such an option? Or is this a pointless exercise?
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Mike Singletary Approval Rating, Week 11
We return for Week 11 of the Approval Ratings, and I can't imagine they'll turn out all that pretty. We're going to roll out ratings for Coach Singletary, OC Jimmy Raye and DC Greg Manusky over the course of the week, and given the team's performance on Sunday, I'm curious to see how far the ratings fall. Last week, Mike Singletary's rating rose from 81% to 88%% following the victory over Chicago. If ESPN.com is any sign, it's going to be a precipitous fall. This week has seen Coach Singletary's rating there drop from 84% to 66%.
We rolled out Singletary's Monday press conference transcript yesterday and it left some folks back on board, and other folks annoyed with the same old comments. At this point, I again can imagine that he probably made a decent amount of money when he was a motivational speaker. He even recognized when he was nearing that territory during his lunch money comments.
The issue I'm curious about in relation to Singletary relates to the offense. When I post the Jimmy Raye Approval Rating we'll discuss the issues of the idea of a spread offense, or shotgun spread, or whatever, in greater depth. For now though, I'm curious about how people view the offense at this point in terms of the overall philosophy in place. We've heard over and over that Coach Singletary wants a smash mouth offense that will punch teams in the mouth. They'll establish a strong running game, which would then open up the passing game. Of course, the offense has been most successful when trailing and forced to open up the passing game beyond this "smash-mouth style."
So I guess the question out of all of this is how much is Mike Singletary driving the offensive philosophy? People jump all over Jimmy Raye for some of his calls, but is this something he's being kind of pushed into by Singletary? We can't tell for sure what Singletary's influence is on Jimmy Raye because we're not insiders. It's possible Mike Singletary told Jimmy Raye upon hiring him that he's in charge, and Singletary then stepped out of the picture for the most part. It's also possible he's continued pushing this smash mouth philosophy, and Raye is not allowed to open it up as much. I'd imagine it's somewhere in the middle, but I'm curious what people think.
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Golden Nuggets: Couldn't tell ya..
Morning folks, morning! James here coming your way in a good mood for once. Yes, you heard it right, a good mood. Mostly because I had things that of course, made me happy today--I fully expect my mood to go lower and lower and lower as I read about the Niners. I hadn't really thought about them at all today, aside from the trash talk I received from this Raiders fan I know, but I'm sure I have a good amount of links for you today concerning the team and their failures. We came up short, really short, and I don't see it going much better from here. Sure, a wildcard is still within reach but I'm seriously doubting that this team can pull it together and get it done. I still have hope though, this isn't a terrible team by any means and I'd go as far as to say it's the most talented in the division, why things aren't coming together I couldn't tell ya. I'll just get to providing you with some linkage. Here ya go.
Coach Singletary is angry with the 49ers current record, which stands at 4-6.(PressDemocrat.com)
The 49ers need to plot a course on offense and stick with it. (PressDemocrat.com)
The team reportedly dropped the previous tampering charges filed by the Jets. This sucks. (MercuryNews.com)
Even Singletary can admit that the 49ers playoffs hopes are dwindling. Ugh, here comes the depression. (Yahoo.com)
Singletary is dedicated to QB Alex Smith, but to the spread? Eh.. not so much. (SacBee.com)
Here's some Monday Locker Room Talk.. yay. (49ers.com)
Here is yesterday's edition of Singletary's Notebook. (49ers.com)
Hm. This article really reeks of "hey I like being up my own [site decorum]" but I won't read it. Title is "To air is human, but personnel is less than divine." (SFGate.com)
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