Just to get this out of the way immediately, I obviously took a backwards K in my prediction of a so-so T.O. performance this week. Three things though. First, the stats couldn't account for T.O. having 2 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown on plays where he blatantly committed an offensive pass interference that was not called. Second, and perhaps I had an influence on this, 67% of those of us who voted on the preview poll thought that T.O. would have less than 100 receiving yards, and only 9% correctly predicted that he would have over 150. Finally, T.O. still has a negative DYAR (-7; ranked 65^th) and a lopsided expected yards discrepancy (-133) even after the second best yardage game of his career. In fact, his expected yards discrepancy per game actually got worse, dropping from -8.6 to -12.1. So I guess what I'm saying here is, "Yeah. I was wrong, but I wasn't as wrong as you think." Sunday's performance by T.O. was totally unexpected based on the stats, and therein lies a major limitation of statistics: It is good at predicting "typical" performance, but not so good at predicting "atypical" performance.

Now, with that out of the way, I'd like to focus on what most 49er fans have been focusing on since Sunday, and I don't mean the choice between roasting and deep frying the Thanksgiving poultry. I'm talking about the atrocious performance of the 49er offense in the red zone against the Cowboys. Most of the blame over the past 3 days has been centered around Mike Martz's play-calling...you know...the pass-run-pass tendency that even I picked up on a couple of weeks ago. Well, there's a dirty little secret, borne out by the stats, that tells me that Martz may not be as much of an offensive genius as most NFL fans think he is.

IN THE RED (ZONE)

We all know the legend of Mike Martz. He turned a guy with "bag boy" and "Arena League player" on his resume into a Super-Bowl-winning, multiple-MVP quarterback. He was the ringmaster of "The Greatest Show on Turf." Hell, he even gilded Jon "The Interception Machine" Kitna's right arm. What's become obvious over the years, though, is that his offense is bred for easy situations. Versus a defensive genius (See Bill Belichick), or when the pressure is on (See Super Bowl XXXVI), however, his offense can be amazingly inefficient. It's great at racking up yardage, but it's not so great at succeeding in the situations that most impact the outcome of an NFL game. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the red zone.

Below is a chart showing the efficiency of Martz-led offenses both overall (black line) and in the red zone (red line):

*Martz only coached the Rams offense for 5 games during the 2005 season.

After the jump, I'll explain the chart, explain why talent hasn't been as important as you think, compare the red zone stats with other field zones, and see how the 49ers did in their SVW situations...

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It's not exactly a shocking statement to say that the 49ers defense has been atrocious.  They can't generate a pass rush, the secondary gets beaten deep rather badly at least once a game.  We can blame the quick exits of the offense as much as we want, but clearly the defense hasn't been performing up to par.

Monday night the 49ers defense squares off against one of the most explosive offenses in the league.  Aside from New Orleans, the Cardinals might be performing better than anybody in the league.  While their rushing game has been pretty weak, the passing game is 2nd in the league and they lead the league in points per game.  Needless to say, a defensive performance like we saw against Seattle could lead to a blowout of epic proportions.

First a quick note on the Cardinals rushing attack.  They've been pretty weak, whether you look at traditional counting stats, or DVOA.  However, we are seeing a changing of the guard as Tim Hightower is taking over the starting job.  Hightower put up 109 yards on 5.0 yards per carry last week against the Rams.  Of course the Cardinals took care of business in that game so that opened up more chances to run the ball.  In spite of the potential for Hightower to become a legit back in this league, the passing game is what the 49ers really need to worry about this Monday.

Kurt Warner has had great success against the 49ers in his career.  He has faced the 49ers more than any other team in his career (11 times) and currently has a 98.4 QB rating with 3013 yards, a 65.1% completion percentage, 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.  This season Warner has had quite the rejuvenation in replacing Matt Leinart.  He is on pace for over 4,800 yards and 32 touchdowns, both of which would be his highest totals since 2001.  Things are clearly looking good for Warner.

In the season opener Warner only threw for 197 yards, with a running game that averaged a mere 2.8 yards per carry.  The 49ers lost 4 fumbles and had 1 INT, which was enough to cap a 23-13 defeat.  As I recall, the 49ers got a pretty solid amount of pressure in the first half, before losing it in the second half.  The Cardinals circled the wagons and brought in more protection for Warner and the 49ers failed to adjust.  A great second half for Boldin sealed the deal as the 49ers couldn't make anything happen.

So now we look to Monday night.  What can the 49ers possibly do to contain an offense that has steadily improved this season and really seems to be clicking?  It's not so easy to throw out predictions now that we're coming off a bye week with a new coach.  While it's entirely possible the team comes out flat and the season is lost, I also think we could see big changes in performance on Monday.  The optimist in me hopes that Singletary and Manusky have figured out something.  Maybe the defense won't be the Monsters of the Midway or the Purple People Eaters.  However, I think we all are just looking for a respectable effort.  I realize the defense won't stop teams on every single 3rd down.  I'm just looking for stops in some of those critical, momentum-changing moments.

Even a win will likely leave open plenty of questions.  However, I also think a win will tell us a whole lot about this team and what Mike Singletary brings to the table as a head coach.  Yes, he gets two whole weeks to figure something out and he won't have that much time in future games.  But this game sets the tone for the rest of the season and the defense is where such a tone needs to be set.  We may not have a phenomenal defense, but I do think we can have an effective defense.  Monday night against the high flying Cardinals is as good a test as any.

The morning after a tough loss is never pretty, but there is certainly plenty around the blogosphere to check out.  Today's a particularly big day as we await word on the extent of Alex Smith's injury, as well as Mike Nolan's wrap-up press conference at 12:15.  I think we all expect Smith to be on the shelf the rest of the season, but we'll wait on the official word.

Speaking of Smith, the 49ers have begun searching for a new 3rd string quarterback.  First name mentioned: Jamie Martin.  Martin is on the radar primarily because of his time in St. Louis with Martz.  There are certainly flashier names out there, but I honestly don't think Byron Lefwich is the type of player you want as a 3rd string QB.  He's talented but you have to wonder if he could accept such a role knowing he has virtually no chance of becoming a starter.

As has been mentioned in the recap thread, Maiocco saw some crazy stats.  The 49ers actually outgained the Cardinals by 6 yards, in spite of running 28 fewer plays.  While there were several field goals, only one touchdown was scored off the 49ers turnovers.  The defense couldn't make some key 3 and outs, but all things considered (primarily time of possession), it was a respectable performance.

Kurt Warner continues to own the 49ers.  The man is 8-1 with 20 TDs and 10 INTs against the 49ers.  I'm surprised the TD/INT ratio isn't better as it always feels like he picks us apart.

Lowell Cohn does not want anybody making excuses for the 49ers.  He calls the 49ers a "good-looking bad offense."  Do people agree with that characterization?  I suppose just based on yesterday's game that's an easy assessment to make.  As Cohn pointed out, they did score .7 points fewer than they averaged last season.  However, I don't think it's possible to perform that poorly, in terms of turnovers, on a consistent basis.

The defense isn't happy about that Ray McDonald roughing the passer penalty.  While I agree that McDonald should have known better, I also think it was a pretty ticky-tack call to make.  But as was pointed out in the game thread, if you even breath on the QB you're gonna get called for something.

A new form of home field advantage?  If our coaches can get in good shape this busted elevator thing could be HUGE!

Isaac Bruce was indeed a bit of a disappearing act.  In the post-game interviews JTO did indicate he looked to him a couple times but the Cardinals were covering him pretty steadily.  If Bryant Johnson can turn into a consistent threat that should open things up for Bruce a little more.

Should the 49ers have been more "angry" about the loss?  I think when you make that many mistakes it's easier to be more embarrassed than anything else.  However, Cam Inman is definitely not optimistic about this season.

For those wondering if the 49ers will ever be on in your part of the country, check this site out every week.

The folks at Princeton are psyched to see their boy Zak Keasey starting.

It doesn't get much easier any time soon with a rough first half of the schedule.  A quick re-look at the schedule and that Philly could be ugly, the Patriots game could be a lot more interesting and who knows what to think about Seattle right now.

Feel free to drop in your own links and I'll hopefully be back with an update on Alex Smith later today.

My intial plan was to post some of the player quotations and some analysis on what they had to say.  Unfortunately for me, most of the quotes lacked the kind of sizzle that make for good analysis.  So, instead, with one week down and a big 49ers-Seahawks divisional showdown fast approaching, let's reassess where the NFC West is as a whole.  Based on performances today, it might be safe to say that the division is up for anyone to grab...except maybe the Rams.

Seattle Seahawks
Over at Field Gulls, John Morgan is definitely not pleased with the Seahawks performance.  Of course, if the 49ers had been smacked around 34-10, I'd probably be just as pissed.  The Seahawks struggled in all aspects of the game, and while their defense certainly wasn't abysmal, I don't know if John's use of the word "fine" is the best descriptor.  Not in bad shape, but even they have plenty of room for improvement. 

As some of us mentioned before, that running game is going to have to work to become more impressive.  Falling behind early didn't help matters, but Julius Jones and Maurice Morris just doesn't inspire fear in anybody.  Jones is certainly talented, but we'll see if he can break through and return to his somewhat respectable 2006 performance.  As for Seattle's special teams?  Well, this video isn't pretty and I don't just mean the blurry picture.  We'll have plenty to preview going forward this week.

St. Louis Rams
I really don't think week one could have gone any worse for the Rams.  For a while it looked like they could come away with keeping DeSean Jackson quiet on punt returns, but then he busted one for 60 yards.  VanRam went so far as to even consider beginning a discussion about the #1 overall pick.  I do think Philadelphia is a talented team and I'm not stunned that Donovan McNabb appears to have finally bounced back from his knee surgery.  That kind of surgery usually takes more than a year for a 100% recovery.  Once they get Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis healthy, the Eagles will be dangerous.

The Eagles aside, probably the only highlight was Randy McMichael with a solid debut for the Rams.  I certainly think there are enough bad teams in the league that the Rams will win some games.  In spite of the 49ers flat effort I feel a little better facing the Rams.  However, while the Rams are not a playoff bound team, they are definitely not as bad as they appeared today.  Steven Jackson missed a significant amount of time with his holdout, so he probably isn't quite 100%.  The Rams definitely need to work on their pass protection as Marc Bulger is going to get killed before the end of the season otherwise.  While awful this week, I'd like to see how they play against the Giants in their home opener.

Arizona Cardinals
Well, we know how these guys looked.  Considering how poorly the 49ers performed, the Cardinals probably should have put 30+ on the board.  They left 11 points out there on two drives because of one moronic personal foul and another poorly time chop block.  While we can blame JTO and company all we want, the Cardinals got pressure to force the two O'Sullivan fumbles.  He had issues with staring down his receivers and I'm kind of surprised he didn't throw more picks.

Kurt Warner remains the 49ers nemesis as even in the face of impressive pressure at times, he made things happen, particularly with Anquan Boldin.  The 49ers would get them to 3rd and long and then give up a first down catch.  Even the Cardinals running game was slightly less than stellar and yet it seemed like they were taking care of business when it mattered most.  The Cardinals only averaged 3.8 yards a carry, but they made some important gains on short yardage situations.

I would also briefly like to address the luck situation.  Luck is often taking advantage of an opportunity.  I definitely don't think the Cardinals were lucky to the beat the 49ers today (in fact I think the 49ers were lucky to not lose by more).  However, it felt at times like things were bouncing the Cardinals way all day long.  Every punt seemed to bounce just right.  A Warner pass would be deflected by a defensive lineman, only to end up in Anquan Boldin's arms.  Things like that.  It's not sour grapes because I wouldn't be surprised for the shoe to be on the other foot in some of these games.  Nonetheless it's certainly frustrating when your team is not on the receiving end of those lucky bounces.

Conclusions
I don't have a separation section for the 49ers because obviously we have been and will continue to discuss them plenty.  For now, while the 49ers certainly were not wildly impressive today, they did enough for me to be hopeful in what for now is a wide-open NFC West.  If the Seahawks can get bodies back I still think they're the team to beat in this division, poor running game aside. They are certainly better than they showed today, particularly their defense.  However, it won't be easy work for them in the division.  The Cardinals show a certain spark under Kurt Warner that will definitely make them a tough out.  It's hard to judge their defense against a developing 49ers offense, but they definitely can bring some heat at times.

I remain somewhat hopeful for the 49ers season because if the season goes anything like this for the likes of Seattle and St. Louis, the 49ers and Cardinals both could conceivably win the division.  Even though the Seahawks will improve this season, I think the 49ers will as well and the Rams will certainly not be this awful (or maybe they will).  If an NFC West team walked into the playoffs at 8-8 I would not be remotely surprised.  Of course performances in the coming weeks could certainly change my thoughts on all of that.

Since the beginning of the Mike Nolan era in 2005, the 49ers and Cardinals have had an interesting history.  The 49ers lost four straight to the Cardinals before winning both games in the series last season.  The 49ers currently stand at 19-14 against the Cardinals all-time.

If you wanted one word to describe the last six contests, close would be the safest choice.  The average difference in score was 7.67 points, and that's factoring in a 17 point Cardinals victory in the first of the six in 2005.  Since then, neither team has won by more than a touchdown.  Last season took the "closeness" to a whole new level with two wild finishes.  As I will consider the first game in 2005 a "statistical outlier," I'm just going to look at the last five.  I feel it creates just a bit more drama!

SAN FRANCISCO 37, @ ARIZONA 31 (Nov. 25, 2007)
The 49ers found themselves in the midst of an 8 game losing streak and the team looking absolutely abysmal.  The 49ers had put up no more than 16 points in any of their previous eight games and while Frank Gore was being productive, he couldn't carry the team by himself.  However, on this day, Gore put together 214 total yards and 2 touchdowns as Trent Dilfer had a bit of a throwback performance.  Of course, the game will be remembered for the wild ending and Patrick Willis putting himself on the national map.  After the 49ers took the lead late, the Cardinals drove down and a goal line stop (including a game-saving defensive effort by Donald Strickland) kept the Cardinals to a field goal. 

In overtime, Kurt Warner connected with Sean Morey for what appeared to be a game-winning touchdown.  However, Willis (in a play replayed over and over again) ran down Morey from behind to prevent the touchdown.  Arizona positioned the ball for a game-winning field goal, which Rackers drilled through the uprights.  Fortunately, a delay of game moved the ball back 5 yards and Rackers missed a 32 yarder.  After a later booming Andy Lee punt and an illegal block in the back, Arizona started with the ball on their own 3.  A Ronald Fields sack forced a Warner fumble, which Tully Banta-Cain pounced on for the heart-stopping victory.

at SAN FRANCISCO 20, ARIZONA 17 (Sept. 10, 2007)
Coming off a rather inspiring 2006, the 49ers were looking to start off the 2007 season with a bang.  The young guns, Alex Smith and Matt Leinart, combined to throw under 50% and do everything they could to single-handedly kill Monday night ratings.  The 49ers tandem of newly acquired Nate Clements and Pro Bowler Walt Harris looked sharp in holding Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to a combined 7 catches for 43 yards.  Patrick Willis made his debut with an impressive 11 tackles, showing a sign of things to come.

However, the finish is what this game will be remembered for.  With 2:58 to go, Alex Smith led the 49ers on 86 yard drive with a 4th down conversion followed by a 3rd and long conversion.  The 3rd down conversion almost resulted in disaster as Arnaz Battle fumbled the ball on the 1 into the end zone.  The ball was recovered in the end zone, but since the offense can't advance a fumble, the ball was spotted at the 1.  Arnaz Battle redeemed himself with an end around for the game winning touchdown with 22 seconds left.

Check out the results of the previous three games after the jump....

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Mike Nolan quotations:

"Shaun Hill is resting his shoulder. So since it was his turn to work with the first group, that’s why J.T. O’Sullivan worked with the first group. Because if he’s going to replace somebody’s repetitions, in fairness that’s what you do. And it is still wide open. So they’re all competing, but that’s where it’s at.”

On whether J.T. O'Sullivan is "back" in the mix for a starting job:

“No, he’s been in it all along. We did say that it would be difficult to get repetitions for the third guy. And now that he’s getting some repetitions, we’re doing it in a fashion that keeps it fair . . . Again, J.T. O’Sullivan still has less reps, but he had an opportunity to get some, so he got them. But this quarterback position is open. They’re competing for it, as I said all along.”

Huh????? 

Color me just a little bit confused.  First, I'll talk about what I actually think I understand in all of this.  Shaun Hill has thrown more passes in this training camp than probably every previous training camp combined.  He's never been in a battle to be the starting QB so that makes sense.  So, his arm got sore and they rested him, replacing his reps with J.T. O'Sullivan. 

I start to get a little confused because they say they want to keep Smith and Hill's reps with the first team even.  The problem is that Smith is already going to get more reps because Hill is missing time.  Of course, now today I read that Smith might get a day or two of rest.  Is J.T. O'Sullivan throwing a monkey wrench into the QB plans?  I could have sworn that last week it was a 2-man battle.  Did the rest for Hill open it back up?  I was going to guess maybe O'Sullivan got a little pissy about lack of playing time, but I really don't think that's something that Nolan would allow.

I was going to use this to re-assess the QB competition, but I really don't know what to think right now.  As would be expected with the installation of a new offense, things are a little sloppy right now.  Martz says it takes more than a week for it to start to flow and that is certainly understandable.  At the same time, we're all impatient because we've been waiting 3+ years for it to "start flowing" in a more general sense.

Obviously I'm willing to give Mike Martz the benefit of the doubt.  The man is an offensive genius and helped turn an Arena Football QB and former grocery store employee into a Super Bowl winning QB.   At the same time, I can't imagine things will be all that pretty in the first game.  Martz says more repetitions will get the offense in sync and things will start to look better.  Of course, the QBs in this case are splitting reps down the middle (maybe down in thirds now) meaning less reps for each QB.

While that has worried me recently, one thing has kept a little more positive lately.  In 1999, Trent Green was the clear-cut starting QB heading into training camp.  I believe it was during a preseason game that he got his knee shredded to hell and back, at which point Kurt Warner took over.  I don't know how many reps Warner had with the first team before Green went down, but clearly he could handle that offense.

My biggest concern is in the timing.  I'd imagine there is a bit of a difference between chucking passes to Jason Hill, Ashley Lelie and Josh Morgan versus Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson and Arnaz Battle.

So, I guess this opens up a few questions.  What exactly is up with J.T. O'Sullivan in all of this?  Will the offense really become fluid in the coming weeks?  Or will the split competition water down the final winner?