As I look back at my posts this week, you'd think this was a lock-win for the 49ers and anything less than a two touchdown victory might be a disappointment.  The gambling folks appear to agree with my initial thoughts (maybe they read NN, right?).  The Seahawks opened as 9.5 point favorites, but as of this evening they sit as only 6.5 point favorites, meaning heavy money is going on the 49ers.

So I thought I'd take a step back and see what the folks at Scouts Inc. and the rest of the World Wide Leader have to say about our favorite team.  In their predictions, there's a 4-4 split among ESPN analysts.  However, the scouts are predicting a 24-14 as they think the defense will be its stellar self and the offense wil somehow find a way to make plays.

While I realize Matt Hasselbeck is a very solid quarterback, it's hard for me to fathom what he will create Sunday.  But as they say, when life gives you lemons, make lemonade.  According to the scouts, when the Seahawks are on offense:

The pass protection . . . must improve after Hasselbeck was repeatedly dropped by an aggressive Bills pressure package. More three-step drops and quick throws can limit the hits on Hasselbeck, but will the timing be there with a group of inexperienced wideouts? The Seahawks could get the backs and tight ends more involved on short zone reads and checkdowns. Yet another injury -- RB Maurice Morris' knee -- will mean more carries for RB Julius Jones, which could be beneficial. A rotation keeps backs fresh but can make it difficult for runners to find a rhythm.

If the Seahawks go to a lot of short reads and checkdowns, how will that affect the 49ers defensive scheme?  I'd imagine Manny Lawson will get a lot of time covering the likes of John Carlson and Will Heller.  With Parys Haralson and the defensive line able to bring the heat, it opens up a guy like Lawson for coverage.

The Scouts also pointed out three keys to success.  For Seattle these were:

1. Give Hasselbeck more time: "Expect more conservative two-man routes and max-protect schemes this week if the 49ers try to emulate the Bills by pulling out the stops."

2. Develop a run game: "The front side of the line needs to be more physical on wide run plays, and all Seahawks blockers need to do a better job of sustaining contact."

3. Make dramatic improvements in the third phase (special teams): "Preseason concerns about coverage units were well-founded, but the Seahawks need to get much better in all areas of the kicking game."

As far as the third one is concerned, it will be tough without your regular return man, so hopefully the 49ers can take advantage.  The other two will be interesting.  Julius Jones was mostly a platoon running back with Marion Barber down in Dallas.  So, if he's going to be carrying the load tomorrow, I'm curious how he can handle it.  TJ Duckett is there to spell him, but it sounds like they want Jones to be the guy, at least for now.

It's obvious to state, but the running game will play a major role in the success of the Seahawks.  It's tough enough when your top receivers are all injured, but the running game is huge for winning, but also for that first key to success.  The offensive line will need to create time, but an established running game slows down the pass rush considerably.  I think Matt Hasselbeck could make some nice, short plays with me as a wide receiver if given enough time.  If Jones can be contained, the 49ers will be able to send additional blitzers without fear of getting burned.  Furthermore, the lack of a running game would kill any play-action plays, freeing up the linebackers and safeties for blitzing or pass coverage.

I do think this will be a relatively low-scoring, defensive battle.  Neither offense did much of anything last week and both defenses are going to be solid this season.  It's a huge game, particularly for the 49ers.  A loss drops them to 0-2 in the division.  Considering the crappiness of the division and the tough non-division schedule, every divisional win is huge.

The theme of this week has been injuries, injuries, injuries.  Sometime later tomorrow or early Saturday we'll have final word on the actual probability of the players below playing.  For now, we at least know how much they practiced the last couple of days.

49ers
C Eric Heitmann - Did not participate in Wednesday or Thursday practice sessions with the shoulder injury suffered Sunday against the Cardinals.

CB Donald Strickland - Did not participate in Wednesday or Thursday practice sessions with a knee injury.

If I was a gambling man (which I tend to be), I'd guess both guys will be listed as questionable and be "game-time decisions."  Hopefully Heitmann is just resting the shoulder and will be fine on Sunday.  The same holds true for Strickland as he is quickly proving to be a very solid option as a 4th cornerback.

If Heitmann could not play, I'd imagine Tony Wragge would play center, David Baas would play right guard and Adam Snyder would play left guard.  That would leave Chilo Rachal as the sole backup at guard.  While you can't keep too many players due to roster restrictions, this goes to show the importance of Tony Wragge's versatility.  They're stuck with a rookie backing up at guard, but considering he's their third option when everybody's healthy you can't really complain too much.

If Donald Strickland couldn't go on Sunday and was deactivated, it'd be a battle between Tarell Brown, Marcus Hudson and Reggie Smith for that extra DB spot.  Smith is probably the first one out of those three as a rookie and it seems like Hudson is a guy they really like, so I'd say Hudson would be active.  We'll see.

Seahawks
WR Bobby Engram - Out - Shoulder (definitely will not play, as opposed to DNP in practice which means he could still play this Sunday).

RB Maurice Morris - Out - Knee (see above)

T Sean Locklear - DNP Practice - Knee

WR Deion Branch - Limited Participation in Practice - Knee - Scoresandodds.com has him down as doubtful and as far as I know he's not playing this Sunday.

LB Lofa Tatupu - Limited Participation in Practice - Knee

CB Marcus Trufant - Fine on Wednesday, but limited participation on Thursday with a hand injury after colliding in practice with Tatupu.  Rotoworld says he appeared fine in the lockerrom, but did have on a protective guard.

DE Baraka Atkins - Full participation in practice in spite of a back injury.

As we've discussed many Seahawks injuries ad nauseum, there's not a whole lot left to say with this injury report.  Tatupu and Trufant will probably go on the injury report as probable, but obviously will be playing.  If they're in the lineup, this defense presents a real tough challenge to the 49ers.  I'd expect a lot of pressure all day long.  This will be a big test of J.T. O'Sullivan's pocket presence and ability to make things happen when chaos is unleashed around him. 

Over at Field Gulls, John Morgan discussed the importance of smart blitzing this weekend.  If the 49ers are going to have success on offense it will take a balanced attack and some very solid pass protection from the offensive line.  The talent is there, it's just a matter of execution.

In the past I've run quotations from Mike Nolan with some of my initial thoughts.  Considering the circumstances of this weekend's 49ers-Seahawks matchup, I thought I'd also include some info from Mike Holmgren's conference call with reporters.  The Seahawks offense has been decimated by injuries, which is something for which he certainly needs to adjust.

The Seahawks are missing several wide receivers (one betting site just says "multiple WR injuries) and Maurice Morris appears likely to be out this weekend.  Also, StrictlyFootball informs me that starting right guard Rob Sims has been placed on injured reserve.  For thos of us who are Oakland A's fans, this run of injuries certainly sounds familiar. 

The Seahawks are at a point where they just need healthy bodies on the field.  They signed WRs Samie Parker and Billy McMullen. 

Holmgren on the two new receivers
It’s a tough task for any guy to come in and be expected to function pretty well on Sunday. Billy [McMullen] comes from the [Philadelphia] Eagles and most recently from Washington [Redskins] he has a leg up because of the terminology is somewhat similar. [With] Sammy [Parker] there’s a little bit more of a learning curve. Teams that have had to do this in the past, and I’ve had to do it a couple of times in the past, what you ask them to do, you just get them ready to do a few things and then hopefully they can do that.

On Seneca Wallace playing at wide receiver
He’s going to practice a little bit at wide receiver, which he did last week. I really didn’t stick him in the game last week. We have done that with him over the years and now it just intensifies just a little bit because [of] the real chance that he could play a little bit. Some of that will be determined by how fast [Willie] Parker and [Billy] McMullen can absorb things.

On committing to the run this week
I suppose on the surface you could probably think that way and then each game kind of unfolds in its own way. We have a really fine quarterback and we have young people who I think can play the wide receiver position, we’re just a little thin there. So, I think that any game that you go in offensively and say ‘you’re only going to do one thing offensively’ and try and do that, I think that you put everybody at a disadvantage. So we’re going to have our normal week of preparation then as the game unfolds, we have to kind of see how we’re going to handle it.

In the preseason interview I had with Scot McCloughan he mentioned the fact that no matter how good one facet of your offense is, if you force just that, most decent NFL defenses will eventually be able to stop you.  The 49ers bring what I think is a better than average defense to the table.  If they're able to tee off on Seattle's running game, it should conceivably be game, set and match.  Mike Nolan addressed the issues of the Seattle offense and how the 49ers can gameplan accordingly.

Nolan on the wide receiver injuries and having to face some unknown quantities
That’s a great question for a couple of reasons. One is that obviously they’re working guys out and there are guys coming off the roster. They don’t have to finalize their roster until Saturday so they could actually have practice squad players that will, on that day, be elevated to the active roster. So it is very difficult to really know. And we won’t know until Saturday what their roster is made up of. Like I said, that’s a great question because we probably will not know until Saturday because of that…because they can practice anybody they want and not make any moves until then.

On the lack of Maurice Morris and the expectation of different looks
Their offense is very multiple already. They use all of their personnel groups, whether its . . . three wide receivers and a tight end, three wide receivers without a tight end and two back, they use them all. Mike Holmgren is outstanding at basically using all those personnel groups and keeping it very simple from a play standpoint what they run. At least it appears to me that if you’re a player that’s been in that offense long enough, you get pretty certain what you’re job is and what the plays will be.

Mike Nolan certainly has the coach speak down pretty well.  I think he'd be foolish to not recognize the opportunity the Seahawks offense presents to the 49ers defense this weekend.  No matter who the backups are, when a team is decimated by injuries the talent level clearly takes a hit.  These guys are backups for a reason.  At the same time, Nolan obviously can't say how weakened the Seahawks are.  Doing so would probably motivate the Seahawks and might make it easier for a letdown by the 49ers.

I wanted to include one more quotation that dealt with Parys Haralson, that I thought was interesting.

On Parys Haralson getting an expanded role (he appeared in 19 plays according to Nolan)
[G]ame plan will determine some of that. Some of what he did too was because of freshness. People sometimes ask, ‘Why do you take those guys off and put those guys on?’ Well, the offense is doing it too. For one, you have got to match up. But, the other reason is, if it – it’s nice if a guy is tired and it’s 3rd down, you’d like to get him off and get a fresh guy on to go because obviously that offensive tackle is not coming off the field, and if you can apply a little more speed to the edge it happens. So, there’s – although a guy might be playing good, some of that is freshness.

What Nolan said certainly makes sense.  Does this mean they want to turn Parys Haralson into mostly a pass-rush specialist?  There's certainly nothing wrong with that as he provided a nice taste of things to come last weekend.  You like versatility in a player, but if he can be a bad-ass pass rusher, I'm fine with him being in a limited role.  Two sacks on 19 plays certainly seems like a decent ratio.

One last note, the NFL ruled Justin Smith got the entire sack on that play he split with Haralson.  So Haralson dropped from 2.5 sacks to 2 sacks and Smith was bumped up from .5 to 1.

Last week we did a breakdown of matchups with Revenge of the Birds.  Unfortunately, Field Gulls is a bit busy this week so we won't be able to compare our thoughts.  I still like the idea of comparing matchups, so I'm going to go ahead with it on my own.  Due to injuries things have changed, but there are still plenty of significant matchups to consider.

Match-Up #1: Seahawks pass rush vs. 49ers pass protection
Advantage: Seahawks (slightly) - I used the phrase pass protection because this includes running backs stepping up to block.  The Seahawks linebacking trio of Julian Peterson, Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill are quite impressive.  While they are solid dropping into coverage, Peterson and Tatupu are bad-ass pass rushers as well.  Patrick Kerney is tough enough on the line, but the Seahawks will also welcome back Rocky Bernard, the man who began the injury saga of Alex Smith.  If the 49ers aren't careful, one of those guys could very well take JTO's head off and think nothing of it.

After a strong preseason, the 49ers offensive line struggled a bit against the Cardinals.  JTO was sacked 4 times and the pocket collapsed several other times.  If they perform the same way this week in pass protection, it could be an ugly day.  It will be important to establish the running game, but if the offensive line isn't stopping the speed rush, it won't matter all that much.

Match-Up #2: Seahawks secondary vs. 49ers receivers
Advantage: Even - The Seahawks bring a solid secondary in Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings.  Nickel back Jordan Babineaux returns after a one-game suspension, which definitely gives them more depth.  The 49ers wide receivers were not exactly spectacular last week, but the talent is definitely there to make plays.  While Isaac Bruce was blanketed last week, Bryant Johnson was able to get open a few times to make some solid gains.  Throw in Arnaz Battle not getting a reception until the second half and you'd think the wide receivers were completely useless.

However, I remain convinced that the 49ers have enough weapons to make plays against this secondary.  Vernon Davis is getting a chance to line up wide, which adds a potent weapon.  There were a couple of 3rd and shorts last week where I wished they ran a wide receiver screen with him.  On this quick plays, he's a virtual guarantee of 3 or 4 yards simply because of his size.

I leave this as an even matchup because the potential is there for both units to be rather solid.  Either side could have a big day and it wouldn't surprise me.

Match-Up #3: Seahawks Running Game vs. 49ers rush defense
Advantage: 49ers - I think I've made it very clear my thoughts on the Seahawks running game.  It's not very good.  Now, Maurice Morris will be out and Justin Forsett was released, leaving a running back duo of Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett.  Combining two guys have been relative underachievers for their careers does not create one good running back that will overachieve (I used to be an accountant, I know how this math will work out).

We'll discuss the Seahawks passing game more tomorrow, but with a relative weak passing attack, it puts more of an onus on the running game, which I don't think they can reach.  The 49ers linebacking corp provides solid backdoor protection to the defensive line.  The 49ers linebackers have a lot of speed which should be sufficient to cut off the outside running lanes.  The primary weakness of the 49ers defense is Aubrayo Franklin.  If he gets shoved around it opens up holes in the middle of the field.  Fortunately tackling machine Patrick Willis and a combination of Takeo Spikes and Jeff Ulbrich can back him up there.  The 49ers held the Cardinals to 2.8 yards per carry, primarily because they were busy being shredded through the air.  The Seahawks might average more than 2.8 yards per carry but I'd be surprised if they successfully mounted much of an attack.  The league average is 4.0 (which they reached last week) and I don't see anything better than that.

We'll have some more matchups tomorrow....

Normally I'd get to this sort of issue when the injury reports come along, but I think this is sufficiently big enough to discuss now.  Seahawks WR Nate Burleson is out for the season.

Deion Branch and Bobby Engram are both out for the foreseeable future, leaving Seattle with a wide receiver corp consisting Courtney Taylor, Jordan Kent and Logan Payne.  I'd imagine they'll sign somebody in the coming days, but that passing game is in a world of hurt.  This is definitely a bit different than facing the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

EDITOR'S NOTE 3:30PM - I forgot that Seneca Wallace played some WR the last few years for them.  Not a big addition, but certainly another option.

During his midday press conference today, Mike Nolan was asked about giving up the short stuff in order to prevent the long ball:

No. It wasn’t until the second half where they were able to. Now, obviously, they are a big play offense. They make big plays, and that’s one of their m.o’s. I thought that the secondary did a good job on [Larry] Fitzgerald. But that was not our goal – to give them anything underneath. We typically play a lot of man[-to-man defense] so it’s very tight coverage. There are certain situations they created some formations that they’ve done in the past as well. But we didn’t execute as well underneath the second half to get off the field. Some of those third downs for example were a case of that.”

First, it's entirely possible one of the three guys mentioned above becomes a big play threat this weekend.  It's entirely possible Hasselbeck just shreads the secondary.  I'm not betting on it, but anything is possible.

However, the 49ers should show very little respect for the pass to start the game.  Hasselbeck is a very solid QB, but if he doesn't have legit receivers out there, why not stuff the box against the run?  Does the combination of Seattle's receivers and the trio of Clements/Harris/Spencer inspire confidence that straight man-to-man coverage is sufficient?  This could open up increased blitzing and increased protection against the run.

The Seahawks did get a decent performance from TE John Carlson.  If you're looking for a tight end in fantasy football, he might be a guy worth having until Branch and Engram return.  Until the Seahawks receivers show they can make plays I'd expect to see a lot of passes to the tight end.

While there Seattle running backs are certainly decent, they do not inspire fear.  They managed 4 yards a carry (much better than Arizona's 2.8) against the Bills so they can certainly gain some ground.  If the 49ers don't worry about the big play they could provide solid depth in the defensive secondary to prevent large gains.

So am I getting ahead of myself?  The Seahawks have a solid defense so I'm not going to say this is anything remotely resembling an easy win.  The 49ers will have to play a great game to win.  However, I believe the game plan has been somewhat altered with this injury.  Mid-game adjustments are certainly a possibility, but why not be a little more aggressive early on?

EDITOR'S UPDATE 5:00PM - Apparently Maurice Morris is also out for this weekend with a sprained knee.  TJ Duckett will get more carries and I'd imagine former Cal Bear Justin Forsett will be active for the first time.  He had a great preseason, so we'll see what kinds of touches he gets on Sunday.  I've never been a huge Morris fan, but we'll see who brings the backup for Julius Jones...

My intial plan was to post some of the player quotations and some analysis on what they had to say.  Unfortunately for me, most of the quotes lacked the kind of sizzle that make for good analysis.  So, instead, with one week down and a big 49ers-Seahawks divisional showdown fast approaching, let's reassess where the NFC West is as a whole.  Based on performances today, it might be safe to say that the division is up for anyone to grab...except maybe the Rams.

Seattle Seahawks
Over at Field Gulls, John Morgan is definitely not pleased with the Seahawks performance.  Of course, if the 49ers had been smacked around 34-10, I'd probably be just as pissed.  The Seahawks struggled in all aspects of the game, and while their defense certainly wasn't abysmal, I don't know if John's use of the word "fine" is the best descriptor.  Not in bad shape, but even they have plenty of room for improvement. 

As some of us mentioned before, that running game is going to have to work to become more impressive.  Falling behind early didn't help matters, but Julius Jones and Maurice Morris just doesn't inspire fear in anybody.  Jones is certainly talented, but we'll see if he can break through and return to his somewhat respectable 2006 performance.  As for Seattle's special teams?  Well, this video isn't pretty and I don't just mean the blurry picture.  We'll have plenty to preview going forward this week.

St. Louis Rams
I really don't think week one could have gone any worse for the Rams.  For a while it looked like they could come away with keeping DeSean Jackson quiet on punt returns, but then he busted one for 60 yards.  VanRam went so far as to even consider beginning a discussion about the #1 overall pick.  I do think Philadelphia is a talented team and I'm not stunned that Donovan McNabb appears to have finally bounced back from his knee surgery.  That kind of surgery usually takes more than a year for a 100% recovery.  Once they get Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis healthy, the Eagles will be dangerous.

The Eagles aside, probably the only highlight was Randy McMichael with a solid debut for the Rams.  I certainly think there are enough bad teams in the league that the Rams will win some games.  In spite of the 49ers flat effort I feel a little better facing the Rams.  However, while the Rams are not a playoff bound team, they are definitely not as bad as they appeared today.  Steven Jackson missed a significant amount of time with his holdout, so he probably isn't quite 100%.  The Rams definitely need to work on their pass protection as Marc Bulger is going to get killed before the end of the season otherwise.  While awful this week, I'd like to see how they play against the Giants in their home opener.

Arizona Cardinals
Well, we know how these guys looked.  Considering how poorly the 49ers performed, the Cardinals probably should have put 30+ on the board.  They left 11 points out there on two drives because of one moronic personal foul and another poorly time chop block.  While we can blame JTO and company all we want, the Cardinals got pressure to force the two O'Sullivan fumbles.  He had issues with staring down his receivers and I'm kind of surprised he didn't throw more picks.

Kurt Warner remains the 49ers nemesis as even in the face of impressive pressure at times, he made things happen, particularly with Anquan Boldin.  The 49ers would get them to 3rd and long and then give up a first down catch.  Even the Cardinals running game was slightly less than stellar and yet it seemed like they were taking care of business when it mattered most.  The Cardinals only averaged 3.8 yards a carry, but they made some important gains on short yardage situations.

I would also briefly like to address the luck situation.  Luck is often taking advantage of an opportunity.  I definitely don't think the Cardinals were lucky to the beat the 49ers today (in fact I think the 49ers were lucky to not lose by more).  However, it felt at times like things were bouncing the Cardinals way all day long.  Every punt seemed to bounce just right.  A Warner pass would be deflected by a defensive lineman, only to end up in Anquan Boldin's arms.  Things like that.  It's not sour grapes because I wouldn't be surprised for the shoe to be on the other foot in some of these games.  Nonetheless it's certainly frustrating when your team is not on the receiving end of those lucky bounces.

Conclusions
I don't have a separation section for the 49ers because obviously we have been and will continue to discuss them plenty.  For now, while the 49ers certainly were not wildly impressive today, they did enough for me to be hopeful in what for now is a wide-open NFC West.  If the Seahawks can get bodies back I still think they're the team to beat in this division, poor running game aside. They are certainly better than they showed today, particularly their defense.  However, it won't be easy work for them in the division.  The Cardinals show a certain spark under Kurt Warner that will definitely make them a tough out.  It's hard to judge their defense against a developing 49ers offense, but they definitely can bring some heat at times.

I remain somewhat hopeful for the 49ers season because if the season goes anything like this for the likes of Seattle and St. Louis, the 49ers and Cardinals both could conceivably win the division.  Even though the Seahawks will improve this season, I think the 49ers will as well and the Rams will certainly not be this awful (or maybe they will).  If an NFC West team walked into the playoffs at 8-8 I would not be remotely surprised.  Of course performances in the coming weeks could certainly change my thoughts on all of that.