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T.J. Duckett

#42 / Running Back / Seattle Seahawks

6-0

254

Feb 17, 1981

Michigan State

Rushing Receiving
G Rush Yds Y/G Avg Lng TD Rec Yds Y/G Avg Lng TD
2008 - T.J. Duckett 11 48 137 12.5 2.9 29 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

49ers-Seahawks Matchups: Who has the advantage

Last week we did a breakdown of matchups with Revenge of the Birds.  Unfortunately, Field Gulls is a bit busy this week so we won't be able to compare our thoughts.  I still like the idea of comparing matchups, so I'm going to go ahead with it on my own.  Due to injuries things have changed, but there are still plenty of significant matchups to consider.

Match-Up #1: Seahawks pass rush vs. 49ers pass protection
Advantage: Seahawks (slightly) - I used the phrase pass protection because this includes running backs stepping up to block.  The Seahawks linebacking trio of Julian Peterson, Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill are quite impressive.  While they are solid dropping into coverage, Peterson and Tatupu are bad-ass pass rushers as well.  Patrick Kerney is tough enough on the line, but the Seahawks will also welcome back Rocky Bernard, the man who began the injury saga of Alex Smith.  If the 49ers aren't careful, one of those guys could very well take JTO's head off and think nothing of it.

After a strong preseason, the 49ers offensive line struggled a bit against the Cardinals.  JTO was sacked 4 times and the pocket collapsed several other times.  If they perform the same way this week in pass protection, it could be an ugly day.  It will be important to establish the running game, but if the offensive line isn't stopping the speed rush, it won't matter all that much.

Match-Up #2: Seahawks secondary vs. 49ers receivers
Advantage: Even - The Seahawks bring a solid secondary in Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings.  Nickel back Jordan Babineaux returns after a one-game suspension, which definitely gives them more depth.  The 49ers wide receivers were not exactly spectacular last week, but the talent is definitely there to make plays.  While Isaac Bruce was blanketed last week, Bryant Johnson was able to get open a few times to make some solid gains.  Throw in Arnaz Battle not getting a reception until the second half and you'd think the wide receivers were completely useless.

However, I remain convinced that the 49ers have enough weapons to make plays against this secondary.  Vernon Davis is getting a chance to line up wide, which adds a potent weapon.  There were a couple of 3rd and shorts last week where I wished they ran a wide receiver screen with him.  On this quick plays, he's a virtual guarantee of 3 or 4 yards simply because of his size.

I leave this as an even matchup because the potential is there for both units to be rather solid.  Either side could have a big day and it wouldn't surprise me.

Match-Up #3: Seahawks Running Game vs. 49ers rush defense
Advantage: 49ers - I think I've made it very clear my thoughts on the Seahawks running game.  It's not very good.  Now, Maurice Morris will be out and Justin Forsett was released, leaving a running back duo of Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett.  Combining two guys have been relative underachievers for their careers does not create one good running back that will overachieve (I used to be an accountant, I know how this math will work out).

We'll discuss the Seahawks passing game more tomorrow, but with a relative weak passing attack, it puts more of an onus on the running game, which I don't think they can reach.  The 49ers linebacking corp provides solid backdoor protection to the defensive line.  The 49ers linebackers have a lot of speed which should be sufficient to cut off the outside running lanes.  The primary weakness of the 49ers defense is Aubrayo Franklin.  If he gets shoved around it opens up holes in the middle of the field.  Fortunately tackling machine Patrick Willis and a combination of Takeo Spikes and Jeff Ulbrich can back him up there.  The 49ers held the Cardinals to 2.8 yards per carry, primarily because they were busy being shredded through the air.  The Seahawks might average more than 2.8 yards per carry but I'd be surprised if they successfully mounted much of an attack.  The league average is 4.0 (which they reached last week) and I don't see anything better than that.

We'll have some more matchups tomorrow....

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49ers-Seahawks: WR Nate Burleson out for the season - ***Maurice Morris update

Normally I'd get to this sort of issue when the injury reports come along, but I think this is sufficiently big enough to discuss now.  Seahawks WR Nate Burleson is out for the season.

Deion Branch and Bobby Engram are both out for the foreseeable future, leaving Seattle with a wide receiver corp consisting Courtney Taylor, Jordan Kent and Logan Payne.  I'd imagine they'll sign somebody in the coming days, but that passing game is in a world of hurt.  This is definitely a bit different than facing the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

EDITOR'S NOTE 3:30PM - I forgot that Seneca Wallace played some WR the last few years for them.  Not a big addition, but certainly another option.

During his midday press conference today, Mike Nolan was asked about giving up the short stuff in order to prevent the long ball:

No. It wasn’t until the second half where they were able to. Now, obviously, they are a big play offense. They make big plays, and that’s one of their m.o’s. I thought that the secondary did a good job on [Larry] Fitzgerald. But that was not our goal – to give them anything underneath. We typically play a lot of man[-to-man defense] so it’s very tight coverage. There are certain situations they created some formations that they’ve done in the past as well. But we didn’t execute as well underneath the second half to get off the field. Some of those third downs for example were a case of that.”

First, it's entirely possible one of the three guys mentioned above becomes a big play threat this weekend.  It's entirely possible Hasselbeck just shreads the secondary.  I'm not betting on it, but anything is possible.

However, the 49ers should show very little respect for the pass to start the game.  Hasselbeck is a very solid QB, but if he doesn't have legit receivers out there, why not stuff the box against the run?  Does the combination of Seattle's receivers and the trio of Clements/Harris/Spencer inspire confidence that straight man-to-man coverage is sufficient?  This could open up increased blitzing and increased protection against the run.

The Seahawks did get a decent performance from TE John Carlson.  If you're looking for a tight end in fantasy football, he might be a guy worth having until Branch and Engram return.  Until the Seahawks receivers show they can make plays I'd expect to see a lot of passes to the tight end.

While there Seattle running backs are certainly decent, they do not inspire fear.  They managed 4 yards a carry (much better than Arizona's 2.8) against the Bills so they can certainly gain some ground.  If the 49ers don't worry about the big play they could provide solid depth in the defensive secondary to prevent large gains.

So am I getting ahead of myself?  The Seahawks have a solid defense so I'm not going to say this is anything remotely resembling an easy win.  The 49ers will have to play a great game to win.  However, I believe the game plan has been somewhat altered with this injury.  Mid-game adjustments are certainly a possibility, but why not be a little more aggressive early on?

EDITOR'S UPDATE 5:00PM - Apparently Maurice Morris is also out for this weekend with a sprained knee.  TJ Duckett will get more carries and I'd imagine former Cal Bear Justin Forsett will be active for the first time.  He had a great preseason, so we'll see what kinds of touches he gets on Sunday.  I've never been a huge Morris fan, but we'll see who brings the backup for Julius Jones...

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Know Thy Enemy 2008: Detroit Lions - Sunday, September 21

Prideofdetroit_medium

Week 3 will see the 49ers hosting the fighting Matt Millens, also known as the Detroit Lions.  The Lions are represented here at SB Nation by Pride of Detroit, a blog written by Sean Yuille.  The Lions are an interesting team to analyze, in part because of the talent on the field and in part because of the ineptitude that seems to follow Matt Millen.  This is, after all, a general manager that selected a wide receiver with their first round pick in 4 out of 5 drafts.  Will the Lions draft another receiver is a joke that will not get old anytime soon.

Overview
A 6-2 start last season had many Lions fans thinking the team was finally turning the corner to respectability.  A subsequent 6-game losing streak brought the Lions crashing back to earth, resulting in a 7-9 finish.  While the offense was stocked with some solid playmakers, the defense was abysmal, giving up the most points in the league.  While Calvin Johnson flashed amazing skills, he also struggled as rookie receivers are prone to do.  Kitna continued his resurgence finishing with 4,068 passing yards.  However, the lack of any consistent rushing attacked (Kevin Jones led the team with 581 yards) definitely hurt the team.  A more consistent rushing attack might have kept the defense off the field a little more, but the Lions offensive line struggled making that a no-go.

Additions
The man who could conceivably make the biggest impact is 3rd round draft pick, Kevin Smith.  Smith was an absolute beast at Central Florida, finishing with 2,567 yards and 29 touchdowns for the season.  We'll see how he handles top notch competition, but it seems like people expect Smith to be starting pretty quickly.  Gosder Cherilus, a guy projected to the 49ers in many mocks, looks to be their starting right tackle, while 2nd round pick Jordan Dizon is projected at middle linebacker.

Free agency brought in three potential starters on defense: Dwight Smith, Brian Kelly and Chuck Darby.  All three are seasoned veterans which could certainly help a Lions team in need of some defensive leadership.

Subtractions
The biggest lost is Boss Bailey, although that's certainly not the end of the world.  They lost TJ Duckett, but considering the hype coming out of Michigan State, Duckett hasn't done much with his career and Kevin Smith has plenty more upside anyways.  And of course J.T. O'Sullivan split town for the greener pastures of the Bay Area, so I'm sure he'll have revenge on his mind when he's carrying a clipboard (if even that).

2008 Questions & Answers
The Lions offensive line was rather woeful last season, so I'd imagine they're expecting big things from Gosder Cherilus.  If the Lions are too develop a legitimate rushing attack, the offensive line is going to have take control of the trenches.  If not, defenses will be able to tee off on Jon Kitna all game long.

The Lions passing attack should continue to improve with Calvin Johnson having a full year under his belt.  Of course, two questions arise here.  One revolves around the fact that Jon Kitna will turn 36 the day of this game.  At some point he'll run into the wall and the stats will come back to earth.  The other question is how Roy Williams' contract situation will play out.  He apparently has been saying all the right things, which has to make Lions fans happy.  Maybe he figures if he just keeps his mouth shut and performs the money will come.

vs. San Francisco
Over at Pride of Detroit, Sean did a preview of the schedule, month-by-month.  My favorite prediction is his prediction of a victory over the 49ers culminating the Lions 3-0 start (although to be fair, he does predict a 6-10 season overall):

I don't know if this is the Kool-Aid talking or what, but believe it or not, I have the Lions starting off the season 3-0.  Out of the first three games this one worries me the most as being a possible letdown, but the 49ers aren't very good.  Look for a low-scoring affair hopefully resulting in a Lions victory.  This is one of those games where Jason Hanson will be a busy man, and in a battle of kickers he will lead Detroit to victory.

He feels the new Martz offense might still have some kinks to work out and I think he would like the revenge win over Martz, who's been talking a bit of smack about his former team.  Coming off divisional games versus Arizona and at Seattle, I think the 49ers will be looking to get to 2-1.  Considering the weapons they have, I think the Lions can be just as explosive without Martz running the offense.  This will be a big test for the relatively new look defense.  On offense, I think we'll have a pretty good idea of what the season has in store for us at this point. 

I actually think this is one of the hardest games to predict on the schedule.  The Lions can be god-awful at times and they can look like the most amazing world-beaters at times.  They're the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde team.  I'm going to predict a win though.  If the 49ers are going to make some noise this year, games like this are absolutely must-win.  2007 record-wise, the Lions are the "worst" team the 49ers face through the first 11 weeks, as everybody else was at least 8-8 in 2007. 

I'm thinking the offense connects as Martz wants to get a little obnoxious against his former employer.  Frank Gore and DeShaun Foster will be keys to this game as the 49ers must do everything they can to keep the high octane Lions offense off the field.  Pre-training camp, I'll predict a 26-24 49ers victory, thanks in large part to the leg of Joe Nedney.

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