Happy Day After Thanksgiving, everybody! Hope that food hangover isn’t too bad. Or the regular hangover. Neither were as bad for me as the atrocious slate of games the NFL provided for us yesterday. And I'm not even going to mention the Jonas brothers. Let's just say, I expect a formal letter of apology from the league office.

But there are a lot of things in the NFL I am thankful for this year, and right at the top of that list is the best highlight show on TV, ‘Inside the NFL'. That's why I want to thank Showtime for saving it from cancellation, giving it a second life, and even managing to improve it.

I don't know how many of you watch, but I've been a loyal viewer of “The show the pros watch” since the early days with Nick Buonoconti and Len Dawson. After 31 years at HBO, it was cancelled early in the year, before being rescued by Showtime. They replaced host Bob Costas with James Brown and analyst Dan Marino with Phil Simms, which has given the show a little more more fun and casual feel. The spirited arguments between Collinsworth and Simms are good TV, but better is watching JB go out of his way to laugh off the tension between them and repeat “These guys really like each other, I swear.”

But the big change has come from Warren Sapp, the breakout TV star of this year’s NFL season. In fact, he might be the breakout star of the season, period, considering he also does pre and post-game work on the NFL Network, and was a hit on ‘Dancing with then Stars’. Or so I heard. I don’t watch the show. Honest. And while I don’t know much about dancing, considering Sapp was up against a chick and a gay guy and finished second, I’d say he did damn well for himself.

When it comes to NFL analysis, he's more than just some fat guy cracking jokes for comic relief. Warren has always been glib, and spent much of his career making surprising and shocking statements. But he’s quickly made a name for himself this year, by using insider knowledge to add substance to those statements. 

First, a few weeks back, Sapp gave the audience a rare look behind the dysfunction of the Al Vader Davis Raiders, telling of times the Emperor of the Dark Side Raider owner meddled in team affairs, including changing game plans just hours before the game. Then, Sapp made things a little more personal, calling out old teammate Keyshawn Johnson as a “bitch”. Everybody tried to play it off the best they could, but it was pretty awkward, and I don't think that clip would've made it on the air last season. Sapp took a moment last week and apologized to Keyshawn, saying his mother told him he had to. 

Last week, he spilled another insider treat -- that Kevin Mawae used to poke him in the eye just to try and get an edge. It’s this kind of inside dirt, along with his humor and insight, that makes watching Sapp fun -- unlike whatever vanilla ex-player spewing the same old cliches ESPN is shoving down our throat this week. 

They’ve also sexed up the show a bit, bringing on infrequent correspondant -- too infrequent if you ask me -- Jenn Brown (pictured at right), who immediately enters the Hottest Female Sportscaster on the Planet conversation (I have her somewhere in between Erin Andrews and Charissa Thompson). Check out her web site, you’ll thank me later.

Who knew the show had to move away from the network which airs 'Cathouse' and 'G-String Divas' before it could get a hot chick on the show?

Okay, enough foreplay, let’s get to the previews... 

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In our ongoing quest to bring you the vital (and not-so-vital) knowledge from around the league, this is the first of a weekly series where I'll preview the games of the weekend with some analysis, some observations, and some lame attempts at humor.

But before I get to that, please allow me to jinx myself: Since Week 5, I've been picking all the games each Friday over on my site, and I've recently hit a major hot streak. After three straight 11-3 weeks, I pulled off a 13-2-1 record last week. That's a 46-11-1 run. I like to tell myself it's taken me a half-season to find my groove, and now I know the teams so well I can keep this up, but I know the NFL gods are just getting me fattened up like a Thanksgiving turkey, so they can lay a nice 7-9 week on me.

I'm already off to a good start this week (I picked the Steelers in the Thursday night game -- you'll just have to trust me), so now I'm all set up to fall flat on my face. And you've got a front row seat.

NY Jets (7-3) at Tennessee (10-0)

Everybody knows the Titans win, for the most part, based on their great defense and running game. Here are three little known facts about that:

1) The Jets have more sacks than the Titans. 2) The Jets have allowed less rushing yards than the Titans. 3) The Jets average just seven rushing yards less per game than the Titans.

Interesting, no? In case those numbers failed to sway you, here are three more factors why I think the Jets will take down the Titans this week:

1) The Jets are capable of putting up a lot of points, and taking the Titans out of their game a bit. 2) The Jets will have had 10 days off to prepare for Tennessee. 3) The Titans have been a little shaky in the running game of late. Collins has made up for it so far, but I don’t think he can do that every week. Especially if Kris Jenkins is laying on top of him.

The pick: JETS

Buffalo (5-5) at Kansas City (1-9)

It’s amazing how quickly Trent Edwards’s stock has plummeted of late. Early on, he was getting all kinds of praise from fans and "How the hell did so many teams pass on him?"-type comments from analysts. Now he’s getting booed at home on Monday night while Ron Jaworski tears apart his play on national TV.

This is another reason why sports is so fascinating -- that kind of stuff never happens in real life. Can you imagine the eqivalent to that in real life? It would be like a young guy at work getting all kinds of praise when he gets his first opportunity ("Hey, that Phil is one crackerjack accountant. We put him on the Feldman account, and he really whipped that sucker into shape"), and then a few weeks later, everybody wants the guy demoted or fired ("Can you believe that douchebag Phil is late again today? What an ass he is -- his numbers were all way off last month and when I confronted him about it, he groped me inappropriately").

The pick: BILLS

Philadelphia (5-4-1) at Baltimore (6-4)

Philly fans are lucky their baseball team just won the world series, because they otherwise they might’ve been suicidal over the Eagles embarrassing showing at Cincy last weekend. The Iggles limped away with an ugly 13-13 tie which put a serious dent into their playoff hopes, which were sky high early in the season.

Shockingly, their offense was completely stymied by the lowly Bengals defense (75 minutes, 17 drives, 13 points), and Donovan McNabb’s TD/INT ratio took a major beating (Coming in: 13/5, Sunday: 1/3). There was even talk after the game that Andy Reid could give backup QB Kevin Kolb some playing time down the stretch.

So which is more shocking: a) the Eagles offensive meltdown, b) the Kolb rumor, c) the fact McNabb didn’t know there were ties in the NFL, or d) the fact that McNabb’s ignorance of the tie rule became the story of the week?

I’m going with e) the fact that McNabb wondered if they had ties in the playoffs and Super Bowl. I mean, seriously? You think the Super Bowl could be a tie? Are you insane?

The pick: TIE EAGLES

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Part of the scuttlebutt during the lead up to this week's 49ers-Rams game has centered on the availability of each team's starting running back. Frank Gore is probable with a neck strain, while Steven Jackson is out with a thigh strain. The conventional wisdom has been that, while the Rams are a horrible team this season, they essentially have "NO CHANCE, NO CHANCE" (ala Joe Starkey) when Jackson isn't playing. On the surface, it seems that the conventional wisdom is right. The Rams have lost by a combined score of 104-32 in the 3 games since Jackson's injury, and have only rushed for 71.3 yards per game without him. It also doesn't help that, in the two weeks prior to Jackson's injury, the Rams registered their only 2 wins of the season. On the flip side, Gore starting all 9 games hasn't seemed to have much of a positive impact on the 49ers' win-loss record. Jackson must be more valuable to the Rams than Gore is to the 49ers, right? Well, like most things in this era of the NFL, you can basically throw conventional wisdom out the window. And when the conventional wisdom is based on game stats provided by the NFL, there's likely to be a garbage can outside that window. So here's the question I'll address in this week's statistical preview: Is Steven Jackson more valuable to the Rams than Frank Gore is to the 49ers?

Football Outsiders has a statistic called Defense-Adjusted Yards above Replacement (DYAR) that basically tells you what a player's value is to his team. As the name implies, a player's DYAR is defined as the amount of yardage a player has gained for his team above and beyond what the team would gain if they replaced him with an average substitution at his position. For example, the most valuable running back right now, Clinton Portis, has a DYAR equal to 268, which means that, if the Redskins had Joe the Replacement at running back this season instead of Portis, they would have 268 fewer offensive yards. Another way of looking at DYAR is that, were Portis to get hurt and miss a game for the Redskins, they could expect to gain about 30 fewer yards on offense (268 yards divided by 9 games) with Joe The Replacement at running back.

After the jump, I'll answer the value question by comparing DYAR stats for Jackson and Gore, identify five crucial game situations to watch for during the Rams game, and make my game prediction...

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So, BigBlueShoe, our Colts blogger, put together a ballot for the midseason studs and duds to date. Unfortunately I failed to get my vote in in time. However, I thought I'd post the results, and also throw out some of my own thoughts on studs and duds. I encourage everyone else to let us know your thoughts.

I'd probably have given the best head coach so far to Jeff Fisher. Given what he had to deal with in Vince Young going nutty and the fact that the Titans are undefeated makes it logical in my head.  Although Jim Zorn certainly isn't a bad choice.  Chris Johnson is a solid pick as best rookie, although guys like Matt Forte and Matt Ryan are in the mix as well.

Among the duds so far, I think Mike Nolan could have deserved some consideration, although the Jaguars at 3-5 are definitely underachieving more than the 49ers probably.  Among the midseason worst players, J.T. O'Sullivan obviously should get some consideration given all the turnovers and his eventual benching.

Clinton Portis is playing like an MVP right now.

The Studs

NFL Mid-Season MVP: Clinton Portis, Redskins

Comment from David the Falconer at The Falcoholic:

The homer in me wants to say Michael Turner, but he's done the majority of his damage against the league's weakest defenses. Portis has put the Redskins on his back and carried them 100 yards or more down the field most games, and for that he deserves my vote.

Best Player on Offense: Clinton Portis, Redskins

Comment from Skins Patrol at Hogs Haven:

He also has 150 yards receiving and has had his role increase with the injury to Ladell Betts Not everyone knows this, but Portis is the best pass protecting RB blocker in the league and is a big reason why Jason Campbell is playing well this season.

Best Players on Defense: Joey Porter, Dolphins

Comment from BigBlueShoe at Stampede Blue:

I thought this guy was DEAD. How the hell does he have 11.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles? I mean Jeezus, it is only Week Nine and he has 11.5 friggin' sacks! The hell are they feeding them down there in Miami?

Best Rookie: Chris Johnson, Titans

Comment from cgolden at Revenge of the Birds:

No explanation needed. Just watch this kid play and it's obvious why he's truly special. Were we really questioning his status as a first round pick six months ago?

Best Coach: Jim Zorn, Redskins

Comment from WCG at Windy City Gridiron:

I hate doing this, but in that division the Redskins should have easily been the worst team.

Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio has seen better days.

The Duds

Mid-Season Worst Player: JaMarcus Russell, Raiders

Comment from Dave the Falconer at The Falcoholic:

Consider that this guy was the first overall pick in the draft. Then consider that he can't throw a pass without collapsing into a heap.

Mid-Season Worst Rookie: Vernon Gholston, Jets

Comment from cgolden at Revenge of the Birds:

He's learning a new position so this probably isn't fair but seven tackles in eight games for a top six pick is simply unacceptable. You'd think he could at least be a situational pass rusher.

Mid-Season Worst Coach: Jack Del Rio, Jaguars

Comment from Chris at Big Cat Country:

Can I vote for Del Rio and the Jaguars for every possible spot?

WR Roy WIlliams, this is S Roy Williams...hope you guys can get along.

Can anybody remember a trade of this significance at the NFL trading deadline?  The Cowboys give up a 2009 first round pick as well as a 3rd, and a 6th and give up get back a 7th round pick.

Apparently the deal is not 100% complete as the Cowboys have a window to negotiate an extension with Williams.  If they can work it out, it certainly provides another big time weapon for Brad Johnson, and of course Romo once he's healthy.

EDITOR'S UPDATE 3:00PM: The Redskins have signed Shaun Alexander to a 1-year deal.  Ladell Betts is hurt and they need a backup to Clinton Portis.  Given his role in the offense this is a solid signing in my opinion.

And Pacman Jones has been suspended for at least 4 games.  Just a wild day of news.

A lot of message boards (for any sports team really) can get extraordinarily negative at times.  I've noticed traffic often increases here when things are going poorly.  Of course, since Niners Nation started at the tail end of 2006, there's nothing to really compare it too.  The whole point is that I've occasionally seen people write that Frank Gore has only had one good year and thus shouldn't be ranked as high as he is any various projections.  I find that to be somewhere between laughable and total BS.  When you set the franchise rushing record, and follow it up with 1,100 yards on one of the worst offenses in NFL history, you're not a one-shot wonder.

We're all curious how Frank Gore and the 49ers rushing game will do in 2008 in the Mike Martz-led offense.  Many of us are also probably slowly getting in the mood for another season of fantasy football (more info to come on a Niners Nation league).  So I thought I'd check out what some fantasy football sites are projecting from Frank Gore.  I won't say they're wildly all over the place, but there are certainly some mixed projections.  One site even felt Frank Gore was due for up to a 10% drop in fantasy production, for reasons described below.

ESPN
Rank: 6
Stats: 1,068 rushing, 7 TDs/73 rec., 594 receiving, 3 TDs
I tend to use ESPN's draft kit.  I think I (and plenty of others) assume their fantasy writers know a lot, but in reality, we all know anybody can make projections and call themselves an expert.  In fact, before the season starts I'll throw out my random based on next to nothing projections, like these folks.

In these first edition 2008 rankings, Gore is ranked just behind Joseph Addai and Steven Jackson and just ahead of Clinton Portis and Marshawn Lynch.  ESPN clearly thinks Gore enters a Marshall Faulk type of role on the receiving end.  He's not a big play threat as a receiver so the low yardage total isn't surprising.  What I do like is the increase in touchdowns.

CBS.Sportsline
Rank: 5
Stats: 1,158 rushing, 6 TDs/57 rec., 486 receiving, 1 TDs
CBS's projections indicate very little change in Gore's production.  106 more total yards and 1 more touchdown.  Personally I see that as a little low considering the potential for a more high-powered offense.  I suppose this would be working under the impression that Martz will help, but the offense will still not be all that good.

In these rankings, Gore is ranked just behind Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson and just ahead of Marshawn Lynch and Joseph Addai.  Lynch is definitely getting a lot of love.  If the receivers in Buffalo can step up he could certainly move up.  Of course, we'll see how this whole hit-and-run business plays out.

Fox Sports
Rank: 12
Fox Sports hasn't listed stat projections, but rather general rankings.  In these rankings, Jamal Lewis, Ryan Grant and Clinton Portis are just ahead, with Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee right behind him.  While I think Frank Gore is a better running back, the funny thing with running backs this year is that I could certainly see plenty having better statistical years than Gore, simply because of the comparable situations.  Personally, I think Gore has a big year in large part because of receptions.  However, teams like the Packers and Browns could be good enough to lead to very solid years by Grant and Lewis.

Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy
Rank: 19
Stats: 1,000 rushing, 6 TDs/60 rec., 500 receiving, 1 TDs
I wanted to pick a random site I've never checked before and this one came up first when I googled 2008 running back projections fantasy football.  I think it's safe to say I won't be heading back there anytime soon.  They added in a projection of the offensive line for each running back.  For Gore, they projected the 49ers offensive line as "slightly worse."  Considering how bad it was at times last year, I'm not sure it could be slightly worse.  The only reason I can think that's the case is they assume Larry Allen didn't really lose a step last year.  Other than that I'm not sure what to say.  Part of their reasoning:

About Steven Jackson: Only 3 of the 10 RBs 27 yrs old or younger who had a dominant season followed by a disappointing one managed to improve in the next season and none returned to the level they were at previously...

About Gore: See Jackson...The difference for Gore is that his offensive line is worse than last year in run blocking but it is better in pass protection. The average decrease is about 10% in terms of fantasy points.

So there you have it.  I could throw out projections from every possible fantasy site but there would really be no rhyme or reason for the projections.  This is a small sample size, but there really isn't a whole lot to glean from this.  So do you think any of these four is possible?  Personally I think while any of them is possible, aside from ESPN's reception projection, I think they all are underestimating Frank Gore's potential production.

Just to throw numbers out there for the hell of it, I'll go with:

• 265 carries, 1,215 rushing yards, 4.5 avg, 8 rushing touchdowns
• 67 receptions, 582 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns

Feel free to project away.  We can always look back at this and laugh come November or December.