Just to get this out of the way immediately, I obviously took a backwards K in my prediction of a so-so T.O. performance this week. Three things though. First, the stats couldn't account for T.O. having 2 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown on plays where he blatantly committed an offensive pass interference that was not called. Second, and perhaps I had an influence on this, 67% of those of us who voted on the preview poll thought that T.O. would have less than 100 receiving yards, and only 9% correctly predicted that he would have over 150. Finally, T.O. still has a negative DYAR (-7; ranked 65^th) and a lopsided expected yards discrepancy (-133) even after the second best yardage game of his career. In fact, his expected yards discrepancy per game actually got worse, dropping from -8.6 to -12.1. So I guess what I'm saying here is, "Yeah. I was wrong, but I wasn't as wrong as you think." Sunday's performance by T.O. was totally unexpected based on the stats, and therein lies a major limitation of statistics: It is good at predicting "typical" performance, but not so good at predicting "atypical" performance.

Now, with that out of the way, I'd like to focus on what most 49er fans have been focusing on since Sunday, and I don't mean the choice between roasting and deep frying the Thanksgiving poultry. I'm talking about the atrocious performance of the 49er offense in the red zone against the Cowboys. Most of the blame over the past 3 days has been centered around Mike Martz's play-calling...you know...the pass-run-pass tendency that even I picked up on a couple of weeks ago. Well, there's a dirty little secret, borne out by the stats, that tells me that Martz may not be as much of an offensive genius as most NFL fans think he is.

IN THE RED (ZONE)

We all know the legend of Mike Martz. He turned a guy with "bag boy" and "Arena League player" on his resume into a Super-Bowl-winning, multiple-MVP quarterback. He was the ringmaster of "The Greatest Show on Turf." Hell, he even gilded Jon "The Interception Machine" Kitna's right arm. What's become obvious over the years, though, is that his offense is bred for easy situations. Versus a defensive genius (See Bill Belichick), or when the pressure is on (See Super Bowl XXXVI), however, his offense can be amazingly inefficient. It's great at racking up yardage, but it's not so great at succeeding in the situations that most impact the outcome of an NFL game. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the red zone.

Below is a chart showing the efficiency of Martz-led offenses both overall (black line) and in the red zone (red line):

*Martz only coached the Rams offense for 5 games during the 2005 season.

After the jump, I'll explain the chart, explain why talent hasn't been as important as you think, compare the red zone stats with other field zones, and see how the 49ers did in their SVW situations...

Continue reading this post »

I don't even know WHERE to begin with this.  I was looking over Matt Barrows most recent post and he managed to subtly throw in something that rocked my world just a little bit.  He was talking about how Joe Staley is one of the front-runners for Barrows' "Good Guy to Interview" award.  After some discussion about his foot and the offensive linemen's debate about Obama vs. McCain, Barrows dropped this little nugget:

The conversation ended with a discussion of Staley's Karaoke prowess. Staley says he's certain he's the best singer on the team and isn't shy about showing off his voice. During a recent excursion, he tapped Alex Smith's fiancee, Elizabeth Barry, for a duet of "A Whole New World." "I'm a big fan of Disney movies. So naturally I knew every word," Staley said. He also belted out Lynyrd Skynyrd's "Simple Man" and "Hero" by Inrique Iglesias. The man has range ...

First off, I certainly won't judge a man by his karaoke choices.  The whole point of karaoke is throwing out some rather amusing songs.  However, this list of songs is something else.  I love how Staley says naturally he knew every word.  I bet he was a hit in the annual "make the rookies sing their fight song" hazing ritual.

When Kwame Harris was still around, the big knock on him was his sensitivity.  He was an artistic "Renaissance Man" and that didn't exactly fly.  Of course he was also a god-awful offensive lineman whose primary weapon was the hold.  Staley proved last season that he could kick some butt on the offensive line.  So, for now he gets a pass, although this is definitely something to keep in our back pocket.

One of my favorite web sites is Football Outsiders.  The sister-site of Baseball Prospectus has taken football analysis to a whole new level.  However, I realized today I hadn't visited the site in some time this offseason.  I get email updates from them and nothing of note seemed to be coming along.  Well, I did a little combing of their recent articles and found some interesting stuff I had overlooked.  So consider this a Football Outsiders link dump of sorts.

Draft Review
Shortly after the draft, FO did a review of the NFC West's drafts.  They did a nice little review of the events that ended with the 49ers picking where they were picking in the first round.  Leading up to the draft, most websites emphasized how the 49ers shot themselves in the foot in losing out on a top 10 pick.  In discussing the 2007 selection of Staley they said:

Staley started every game at right tackle for the 49ers last season, and runs to right tackle improved from 23rd in 2006 to ninth in 2007. Considering the damage that Staley’s predecessor Kwame Harris was doing to the psyche of the 49ers’ fanbase, the trade seems like at least a wash for San Francisco.

Then looking at what the 49ers did with the acquired Colts pick:

That pick, the 29th overall, and the 49ers’ own second-rounder, the 39th overall, were used to solidify the interior of the line on both sides of the ball. This is the same strategy the Kansas City Chiefs used to set everyone’s hearts aflutter, but the 49ers received much less fanfare.

We all know plenty about the early 49ers picks, so I'll throw out what FO said about some of the later guys.

Cody Wallace: "Wallace cleaned up at the Combine, leading all offensive linemen in vertical jump and broad jump. Jokes about the rarity of centers bouncing around a football field aside, that shows great explosive power in the legs; if he can launch his own body through the air, he should have no problem popping defenders backwards at the snap."

Josh Morgan: "NFL.com’s bio of Morgan is awfully frank, saying he has 'a rare combination of size and speed,' but 'he’s also plagued by rounded-off routes, weak effort as a blocker and ugly drops.'"

Larry Grant: "Grant is somewhat undersized at 235 pounds, but has great agility, placing third in the 3-cone drill and fourth in the 20-yard shuttle at the Combine. That athleticism should come in handy on passing downs and on special teams."

They wrapped up the piece with an interesting tidbit on the undrafted free agents the 49ers signed:

[Robert] Jordan is noted for his physical and mental toughness, but the durability of this thin frame must be questioned; he broke his ankle in high school, and his collarbone in college. Another interesting prospect is Louis Holmes out of Arizona, a monster of a man at 6-6, 270 pounds, who would play an enormous outside linebacker in the 49ers’ 3-4. He has also had “brushes with the law,” so he may be terrorizing on and off the field.

Special Teams and the draft
Mike Tanier used to write a column called "Too Deep Zone" for FO, as well as several other pieces every year.  Just prior to the 2008 draft, he made a change and now has a bi-weekly column titled "Walkthrough," which appears to be a random assortment of this, that and the other thing related to football and analysis.  His first Walkthrough had an interesting discussion about college players' willingness to play special teams their rookie season (and beyond in some cases).

Most teams ask midrange prospects about their special-teams willingness during pre-draft interviews. According to Rob Rang of NFL Draft Scout, coaches and execs can’t always take the answers at face value.

“Some prospects say they’re willing to play special teams or ‘do whatever it takes get onto field,’ but are then shocked when they are actually expected to do so.” Wright agrees. “Many of these guys need to swallow their pride and put their egos on the backburner. But some have a real difficult time doing that.”

Assuming they make the 53-man roster, I could see Larry Grant and Josh Morgan seeing plenty of time on special teams.  When Grant was selected in the 7th round, that was one of the primary pieces of analysis about him.  Obviously we won't have a better idea about this until training camp and preseason games.  If a guy can prove he can contribute to special teams, you never know when he might then get a shot at regular play.  It should make for an interesting camp.