Just to get this out of the way immediately, I obviously took a backwards K in my prediction of a so-so T.O. performance this week. Three things though. First, the stats couldn't account for T.O. having 2 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown on plays where he blatantly committed an offensive pass interference that was not called. Second, and perhaps I had an influence on this, 67% of those of us who voted on the preview poll thought that T.O. would have less than 100 receiving yards, and only 9% correctly predicted that he would have over 150. Finally, T.O. still has a negative DYAR (-7; ranked 65^th) and a lopsided expected yards discrepancy (-133) even after the second best yardage game of his career. In fact, his expected yards discrepancy per game actually got worse, dropping from -8.6 to -12.1. So I guess what I'm saying here is, "Yeah. I was wrong, but I wasn't as wrong as you think." Sunday's performance by T.O. was totally unexpected based on the stats, and therein lies a major limitation of statistics: It is good at predicting "typical" performance, but not so good at predicting "atypical" performance.

Now, with that out of the way, I'd like to focus on what most 49er fans have been focusing on since Sunday, and I don't mean the choice between roasting and deep frying the Thanksgiving poultry. I'm talking about the atrocious performance of the 49er offense in the red zone against the Cowboys. Most of the blame over the past 3 days has been centered around Mike Martz's play-calling...you know...the pass-run-pass tendency that even I picked up on a couple of weeks ago. Well, there's a dirty little secret, borne out by the stats, that tells me that Martz may not be as much of an offensive genius as most NFL fans think he is.

IN THE RED (ZONE)

We all know the legend of Mike Martz. He turned a guy with "bag boy" and "Arena League player" on his resume into a Super-Bowl-winning, multiple-MVP quarterback. He was the ringmaster of "The Greatest Show on Turf." Hell, he even gilded Jon "The Interception Machine" Kitna's right arm. What's become obvious over the years, though, is that his offense is bred for easy situations. Versus a defensive genius (See Bill Belichick), or when the pressure is on (See Super Bowl XXXVI), however, his offense can be amazingly inefficient. It's great at racking up yardage, but it's not so great at succeeding in the situations that most impact the outcome of an NFL game. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the red zone.

Below is a chart showing the efficiency of Martz-led offenses both overall (black line) and in the red zone (red line):

*Martz only coached the Rams offense for 5 games during the 2005 season.

After the jump, I'll explain the chart, explain why talent hasn't been as important as you think, compare the red zone stats with other field zones, and see how the 49ers did in their SVW situations...

Continue reading this post »

Part of the scuttlebutt during the lead up to this week's 49ers-Rams game has centered on the availability of each team's starting running back. Frank Gore is probable with a neck strain, while Steven Jackson is out with a thigh strain. The conventional wisdom has been that, while the Rams are a horrible team this season, they essentially have "NO CHANCE, NO CHANCE" (ala Joe Starkey) when Jackson isn't playing. On the surface, it seems that the conventional wisdom is right. The Rams have lost by a combined score of 104-32 in the 3 games since Jackson's injury, and have only rushed for 71.3 yards per game without him. It also doesn't help that, in the two weeks prior to Jackson's injury, the Rams registered their only 2 wins of the season. On the flip side, Gore starting all 9 games hasn't seemed to have much of a positive impact on the 49ers' win-loss record. Jackson must be more valuable to the Rams than Gore is to the 49ers, right? Well, like most things in this era of the NFL, you can basically throw conventional wisdom out the window. And when the conventional wisdom is based on game stats provided by the NFL, there's likely to be a garbage can outside that window. So here's the question I'll address in this week's statistical preview: Is Steven Jackson more valuable to the Rams than Frank Gore is to the 49ers?

Football Outsiders has a statistic called Defense-Adjusted Yards above Replacement (DYAR) that basically tells you what a player's value is to his team. As the name implies, a player's DYAR is defined as the amount of yardage a player has gained for his team above and beyond what the team would gain if they replaced him with an average substitution at his position. For example, the most valuable running back right now, Clinton Portis, has a DYAR equal to 268, which means that, if the Redskins had Joe the Replacement at running back this season instead of Portis, they would have 268 fewer offensive yards. Another way of looking at DYAR is that, were Portis to get hurt and miss a game for the Redskins, they could expect to gain about 30 fewer yards on offense (268 yards divided by 9 games) with Joe The Replacement at running back.

After the jump, I'll answer the value question by comparing DYAR stats for Jackson and Gore, identify five crucial game situations to watch for during the Rams game, and make my game prediction...

Continue reading this post »

Well we've got a whole assortment of players out or questionable for both teams heading into Sunday's matchup.  The biggest name would have to be Steven Jackson, the Rams running back.  We'll get a chance to see a whole lot of Antonio Pittman and maybe throwback Travis Minor.

49ers
Probable: RB Frank Gore (neck)

Questionable: FS Mark Roman (groin)

Doubtful: OT Barry Sims (ankle), TE Delanie Walker (shoulder)

Out: WR Arnaz Battle (foot), S Dashon Goldson (knee), WR Josh Morgan (groin)

Rams
Probable: WR Derek Stanley (ankle), DT Adam Carriker (ankle), QB Trent Green (elbow), RB Antonio Pittman (hamstring)

Questionable: OT John Greco (knee)

Out: RB Steven Jackson (thigh), LB Chris Draft (foot), CB Tye Hill (knee), DE Eric Moore (spine)

Pittman was a full participant in practice all week so I'd imagine the listing of probable probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Of course hamstrings can be tricky so he'll be a guy to keep an eye on.  I'd imagine as bad as things have been for the Rams, they really don't want to have to rely on Travis Minor.

I'm very curious to see how the 49ers handle the free safety position if Roman can't play.  Goldson is the backup free safety, so with him being out, Keith Lewis could see a whole lot of playing time.  I believe rookie DB Reggie Smith can play a little bit of safety, but I'd expect Keith Lewis to get more playing time first.  Considering Roman's struggles, it might be nice to see some of the young guys get some more playing time, even if it's a guy like Reggie Smith ending up slightly out of position.  We want to know what these guys bring to the table, so might as well throw them in the deep end.

My intial plan was to post some of the player quotations and some analysis on what they had to say.  Unfortunately for me, most of the quotes lacked the kind of sizzle that make for good analysis.  So, instead, with one week down and a big 49ers-Seahawks divisional showdown fast approaching, let's reassess where the NFC West is as a whole.  Based on performances today, it might be safe to say that the division is up for anyone to grab...except maybe the Rams.

Seattle Seahawks
Over at Field Gulls, John Morgan is definitely not pleased with the Seahawks performance.  Of course, if the 49ers had been smacked around 34-10, I'd probably be just as pissed.  The Seahawks struggled in all aspects of the game, and while their defense certainly wasn't abysmal, I don't know if John's use of the word "fine" is the best descriptor.  Not in bad shape, but even they have plenty of room for improvement. 

As some of us mentioned before, that running game is going to have to work to become more impressive.  Falling behind early didn't help matters, but Julius Jones and Maurice Morris just doesn't inspire fear in anybody.  Jones is certainly talented, but we'll see if he can break through and return to his somewhat respectable 2006 performance.  As for Seattle's special teams?  Well, this video isn't pretty and I don't just mean the blurry picture.  We'll have plenty to preview going forward this week.

St. Louis Rams
I really don't think week one could have gone any worse for the Rams.  For a while it looked like they could come away with keeping DeSean Jackson quiet on punt returns, but then he busted one for 60 yards.  VanRam went so far as to even consider beginning a discussion about the #1 overall pick.  I do think Philadelphia is a talented team and I'm not stunned that Donovan McNabb appears to have finally bounced back from his knee surgery.  That kind of surgery usually takes more than a year for a 100% recovery.  Once they get Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis healthy, the Eagles will be dangerous.

The Eagles aside, probably the only highlight was Randy McMichael with a solid debut for the Rams.  I certainly think there are enough bad teams in the league that the Rams will win some games.  In spite of the 49ers flat effort I feel a little better facing the Rams.  However, while the Rams are not a playoff bound team, they are definitely not as bad as they appeared today.  Steven Jackson missed a significant amount of time with his holdout, so he probably isn't quite 100%.  The Rams definitely need to work on their pass protection as Marc Bulger is going to get killed before the end of the season otherwise.  While awful this week, I'd like to see how they play against the Giants in their home opener.

Arizona Cardinals
Well, we know how these guys looked.  Considering how poorly the 49ers performed, the Cardinals probably should have put 30+ on the board.  They left 11 points out there on two drives because of one moronic personal foul and another poorly time chop block.  While we can blame JTO and company all we want, the Cardinals got pressure to force the two O'Sullivan fumbles.  He had issues with staring down his receivers and I'm kind of surprised he didn't throw more picks.

Kurt Warner remains the 49ers nemesis as even in the face of impressive pressure at times, he made things happen, particularly with Anquan Boldin.  The 49ers would get them to 3rd and long and then give up a first down catch.  Even the Cardinals running game was slightly less than stellar and yet it seemed like they were taking care of business when it mattered most.  The Cardinals only averaged 3.8 yards a carry, but they made some important gains on short yardage situations.

I would also briefly like to address the luck situation.  Luck is often taking advantage of an opportunity.  I definitely don't think the Cardinals were lucky to the beat the 49ers today (in fact I think the 49ers were lucky to not lose by more).  However, it felt at times like things were bouncing the Cardinals way all day long.  Every punt seemed to bounce just right.  A Warner pass would be deflected by a defensive lineman, only to end up in Anquan Boldin's arms.  Things like that.  It's not sour grapes because I wouldn't be surprised for the shoe to be on the other foot in some of these games.  Nonetheless it's certainly frustrating when your team is not on the receiving end of those lucky bounces.

Conclusions
I don't have a separation section for the 49ers because obviously we have been and will continue to discuss them plenty.  For now, while the 49ers certainly were not wildly impressive today, they did enough for me to be hopeful in what for now is a wide-open NFC West.  If the Seahawks can get bodies back I still think they're the team to beat in this division, poor running game aside. They are certainly better than they showed today, particularly their defense.  However, it won't be easy work for them in the division.  The Cardinals show a certain spark under Kurt Warner that will definitely make them a tough out.  It's hard to judge their defense against a developing 49ers offense, but they definitely can bring some heat at times.

I remain somewhat hopeful for the 49ers season because if the season goes anything like this for the likes of Seattle and St. Louis, the 49ers and Cardinals both could conceivably win the division.  Even though the Seahawks will improve this season, I think the 49ers will as well and the Rams will certainly not be this awful (or maybe they will).  If an NFC West team walked into the playoffs at 8-8 I would not be remotely surprised.  Of course performances in the coming weeks could certainly change my thoughts on all of that.

Over at ESPN's NFC West blog, Mike Sando took a look at some of the acrimonious contract situations in the division.  The division has signed all of their 2008 draft picks, but that doesn't meant people don't want to get P-A-I-D. 

The Rams are dealing with a Pro Bowl holdout in Steven Jackson.  While Anquan Boldin has reported to Cardinals camp, he is not planning on sticking around when his contract expires.  The Seahawks have an unhappy Bobby Engram, not something you want out of your star receiver.

And the 49ers during all of this?  Well, Arnaz Battle missed several days of practice during the OTAs.  No official word was ever given, but most people believe it was dissatisfaction with having his #2 job handed to Bryant Johnson.  You never want your players unhappy, but it's better if it's the potential #3 receiver, as opposed to say, Patrick Willis or Joe Staley.

However, with that in mind, looking back over recent 49ers history shows very few holdouts.  I was trying to figure out who the last 49ers holdout was and I think it was Julian Peterson in 2004.  Rashaun Woods was a threat too, but I can't remember for sure and google is not much help on that.  Of course, it is Rashaun Woods, so who really cares, right?

The 49ers clearly have struggled on the field and battled with inconsistencies and being generally bad since Mooch left town.  However, while the team has struggled under Nolan, they have definitely brought in some quality talent, while also developing some of their own picks within.  During all this time, there has never been contract holdout drama.  One thing that plays in the team's favor is that a rookie's contract apparently cannot be redone until AFTER the second year.  So you get a couple years without holding out after a deal is done.

At the same time, even when it's been last minute, like with Vernon Davis, the team has gotten their draft picks into camp on time.  Making the leap from college to the pros is a big step up and rookies need every minute of training camp they can get.  JaMarcus Russell missed all of training camp last season and I can't begin to imagine how much that stunted his initial growth.  Even for a guy like Kentwan Balmer, getting in on time means he gets to meet with the likes of Bryant Young.  While Balmer probably wouldn't have missed all of training camp, maybe BY only makes it to the early part of camp and he misses out on that chance?  It's all speculation, but worth considering.

So, even though the team has stunk up the joint at times, we can at least take some solace knowing that our front office isn't entirely incompetent.  Over the last couple of months we've seen them re-sign the likes of Delanie Walker and Michael Robinson.  While neither is a starter, they are important cogs that could make key contributions this year and into the future.

So the question then becomes, do the 49ers have Patrick Willis's agent on speed dial for the moment the season ends and they can renegotiate a long term deal while rewarding Bamm Bamm for his all around awesomeness?

Aside from OTAs and a short minicamp, May, June and much of July are pretty quiet on the football front.  I'm guessing that's why the various publications put out their annual NFL Preview issues.  A lot will change in training camp, but for now, football fans demand information.  My first memories of this revolved around Street & Smith's.  Others have come along, including Athlon Sports and Lindy's Pro Football Preview, but for me, it all goes back to Street & Smith's.

We'll look at those magazines later, but for now I thought we'd start with CBSSports.com's Pro Football Weekly.  PFW gives letter grades to eight offensive and defensive units, a projected record and odds on winning the Super Bowl.  I've put all the pertinent information about all 4 NFC West teams in this handy-dandy chart:

As you can see, PFW seems rather bullish on the Cardinals and incredibly down on the 49ers.  I have no problem with the long Super Bowl odds, but does anybody honestly see this team going 3-13?  I suppose anything's possible and I'm probably more optimistic than an objective football analyst.  However, I honestly see both the offensive and defensive units improving in 2008.  I'm not predicting 13-3, but I think a 7-9 or 8-8 prediction is completely reasonable and safe guess.  Furthermore, even though the grades aren't all that good, there is no one unit that is so awful as to warrant 3-13.

Right off the bat, let's look at the running back position.  Steven Jackson is arguably the better running back in the NFC West.  Even conceding that point, would you rather have DeShaun Foster as your #2 back or the combination of Travis MInor and youngsters Brian Leonard and Antonio Pittman.  Sure there is upside in those last two, but Foster brings more to the table this season.

Looking at the offensive line grades, it's fair based on last year's performance.  However, I definitely think the offensive line will perform above a C- if they can stay healthy.  The addition of Barry Sims gives them a very capable backup to Jonas Jennings, meaning they won't be sliding guards to tackle and tackles to guard.

As far as the defensive backs are concerned, I think this a clear sign of not doing enough research.  It seems like they saw the 49ers final numbers and assumed the DBs were just as bad as everybody else.  They did acknowledge that Clements played well under his "$80 million contract" (that we all know is NOT $80M).  While Walt Harris certainly regressed from 2006, the depth behind him has grown.  Shawntae Spencer remains a talented back up and the youth movement of Tarell Brown and Reggie Smith brings a lot to the table.

They wrapped up the preview stating that:

At the very least, the Niners should be a lot more interesting with Mike Martz in charge of the offense.  But with so many holes to fill on both sides of the ball, a sixth straight losing season seems more than a little likely.

Considering they predicted 3-13, it seems like they think it's more like a lock.

Other Stuff
As with every preview magazine, PFW has several feature articles on everything ranging from the 10 players to keep an eye on throughout the year to the top rated players overall and at each position.  I'm disappointed to say that Patrick Willis didn't make the top 10 players to watch each week, or even the honorable mentions.  Of course the top 10 were all the usual suspects on offense.  The honorable mentions did include Ed Reed and Antonio Cromartie.  Personally, I think you're gonna see something special every week when Bamm-Bamm takes the field.

As far as the player ratings, 4.0-5.0 goes Pro Bowl, blue chip guys who "consistently make big plays."  3.0-3.9 goes to impact players who fall short in at least one area.  2.4-2.9 goes to starters who get the job done or a "still-developing player who has the potential to get it done."

Coming in at #50 and the highest rated 49er is Bamm-Bamm himself, Patrick Willis with a 4.0 (for new readers wondering about the Bamm-Bamm, Chad Johnson gave Willis that nickname just prior to playing against him last season.  Suffice to say, it has stuck here at Niners Nation). 

Next to many players they included little initials, such as u (upside), uu (huge upside), c (player is at a crossroads) and d (begun to decline or will soon).  Willis is notched with a uu meaning huge upside.  Only Brian Urlacher ranks higher than Willis, while Lofa Tatupu and DeMeco Ryans are also given 4.0.  Since Willis has uu, and those two don't, he gets the tiebreaker.  An interesting point is made in his little bio:

Willis had one of the all-time great seasons for a rookie linebacker, leading the NFL in tackles by a wide margin...Such a high tackle total is usually an indicator of a weak defense, but make no mistake: Willis had an outstanding first season.  A fast, tough inside linebacker who makes tackles sideline-to-sideline, Willis could be an All-Pro for the next 10 years if he stays healthy and hungry.

Aside from Willis, the 49ers get high marks for Frank Gore (3.75, although I think there should be a u next to Gore considering the impact Martz could have on the offense).  Vernon Davis comes in at 3.4 with uu and in the team preview they think he could blow up in the Martz offense (shocker there).  Joe Staley checks in at 3.3 with a uu, Justin Smith is a 3.4, Nate Clements is a 3.7 and MIchael Lewis is a 3.4.

And just to cap it off, the man, the myth, the legend, Andy Lee comes in at 3.8 with a u.  You have to love a punter with upside!

A lot of message boards (for any sports team really) can get extraordinarily negative at times.  I've noticed traffic often increases here when things are going poorly.  Of course, since Niners Nation started at the tail end of 2006, there's nothing to really compare it too.  The whole point is that I've occasionally seen people write that Frank Gore has only had one good year and thus shouldn't be ranked as high as he is any various projections.  I find that to be somewhere between laughable and total BS.  When you set the franchise rushing record, and follow it up with 1,100 yards on one of the worst offenses in NFL history, you're not a one-shot wonder.

We're all curious how Frank Gore and the 49ers rushing game will do in 2008 in the Mike Martz-led offense.  Many of us are also probably slowly getting in the mood for another season of fantasy football (more info to come on a Niners Nation league).  So I thought I'd check out what some fantasy football sites are projecting from Frank Gore.  I won't say they're wildly all over the place, but there are certainly some mixed projections.  One site even felt Frank Gore was due for up to a 10% drop in fantasy production, for reasons described below.

ESPN
Rank: 6
Stats: 1,068 rushing, 7 TDs/73 rec., 594 receiving, 3 TDs
I tend to use ESPN's draft kit.  I think I (and plenty of others) assume their fantasy writers know a lot, but in reality, we all know anybody can make projections and call themselves an expert.  In fact, before the season starts I'll throw out my random based on next to nothing projections, like these folks.

In these first edition 2008 rankings, Gore is ranked just behind Joseph Addai and Steven Jackson and just ahead of Clinton Portis and Marshawn Lynch.  ESPN clearly thinks Gore enters a Marshall Faulk type of role on the receiving end.  He's not a big play threat as a receiver so the low yardage total isn't surprising.  What I do like is the increase in touchdowns.

CBS.Sportsline
Rank: 5
Stats: 1,158 rushing, 6 TDs/57 rec., 486 receiving, 1 TDs
CBS's projections indicate very little change in Gore's production.  106 more total yards and 1 more touchdown.  Personally I see that as a little low considering the potential for a more high-powered offense.  I suppose this would be working under the impression that Martz will help, but the offense will still not be all that good.

In these rankings, Gore is ranked just behind Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson and just ahead of Marshawn Lynch and Joseph Addai.  Lynch is definitely getting a lot of love.  If the receivers in Buffalo can step up he could certainly move up.  Of course, we'll see how this whole hit-and-run business plays out.

Fox Sports
Rank: 12
Fox Sports hasn't listed stat projections, but rather general rankings.  In these rankings, Jamal Lewis, Ryan Grant and Clinton Portis are just ahead, with Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee right behind him.  While I think Frank Gore is a better running back, the funny thing with running backs this year is that I could certainly see plenty having better statistical years than Gore, simply because of the comparable situations.  Personally, I think Gore has a big year in large part because of receptions.  However, teams like the Packers and Browns could be good enough to lead to very solid years by Grant and Lewis.

Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy
Rank: 19
Stats: 1,000 rushing, 6 TDs/60 rec., 500 receiving, 1 TDs
I wanted to pick a random site I've never checked before and this one came up first when I googled 2008 running back projections fantasy football.  I think it's safe to say I won't be heading back there anytime soon.  They added in a projection of the offensive line for each running back.  For Gore, they projected the 49ers offensive line as "slightly worse."  Considering how bad it was at times last year, I'm not sure it could be slightly worse.  The only reason I can think that's the case is they assume Larry Allen didn't really lose a step last year.  Other than that I'm not sure what to say.  Part of their reasoning:

About Steven Jackson: Only 3 of the 10 RBs 27 yrs old or younger who had a dominant season followed by a disappointing one managed to improve in the next season and none returned to the level they were at previously...

About Gore: See Jackson...The difference for Gore is that his offensive line is worse than last year in run blocking but it is better in pass protection. The average decrease is about 10% in terms of fantasy points.

So there you have it.  I could throw out projections from every possible fantasy site but there would really be no rhyme or reason for the projections.  This is a small sample size, but there really isn't a whole lot to glean from this.  So do you think any of these four is possible?  Personally I think while any of them is possible, aside from ESPN's reception projection, I think they all are underestimating Frank Gore's potential production.

Just to throw numbers out there for the hell of it, I'll go with:

• 265 carries, 1,215 rushing yards, 4.5 avg, 8 rushing touchdowns
• 67 receptions, 582 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns

Feel free to project away.  We can always look back at this and laugh come November or December.