Niners Nation: FanPosts

10 things the 49ers should not do

2009-11-20T22:07:27Z

As 49er fans I'm sure most of you would agree that there are many times during the game that our stomachs turn upside down because of some bone-headed move. Whether it be an Arnaz Battle fumble, a tipped pass, a blown coverage, or Josh Morgan in motion until he sits behind the tackle, I'm sure we can all come up with instances we regularly would like to have control over.

Being that this game is essentially a must win if we want a chance at a playoff spot, I'd like to make a list. This will be a list of items that absolutely must NOT happen if we expect to win here, and win enough to make the playoffs.

1. Raye continues to be Raye.

2. M Rob is on the bench more than Moran Norris.

3 Moran Norris gets a lot of PT.

4. Sims plays like Adam Snyder.

5. Adam Snyder plays like Barry Sims(did last year).

6. Use Battle on punt returns. I can barely watch.

7. Run 5 yard plays on 3rd and long, and hope to get YAC.

8. Chilo is asked to do too much.

9. We go with a QB sneak on 4th and short.

10. Beat ourselves; Penalties, clock management, turnovers, that damn play when Morgan motions to block behind the line!!!!!

So the list is meant to be a bit funny, but in a truthfully ironic sort of way. What about it Nation, What should we not do this Sunday?

Poll

Who should most not be themselves this week?

Still think the Niners will reach the playoffs???

2009-11-20T17:09:06Z

At the beginning of the year I called this team to go 6-10 or 7-9.

I think they will now end up as good as 8-8, due to the weak schedule vs. the Lions and the Rams.

The question is does anyone out there think they can pass the Cardinals as its very likely that only 1 NFC West team will make the playoffs.

The failure of Mc Boo Foo to consistently ignore concerns via the draft for a right tackle and pass rusher has been detrimental to say the least. Couple this with the injuries to Staley and Clements and I just don't see this team making the playoffs.

I just hope the Panthers continue to cooperate and the Niners go worse than 8-8 this year and use the draft properly as a way to build the team for the years going forward. The team has shown signs of improvement and there is no shame in not making the playoffs-especially with it most likely resulting in a 1st rd exit and a lower draft pick.

Think about it.

Packers fan with some questions

2009-11-20T07:04:21Z

What's up 49ers fans? I just wanted to come over here and talk a little bit about Sunday's upcoming game. I actually have a good friend of mine who is a die-hard 49ers fan and we talked a little bit about the game earlier in the week. I have some questions for you guys if you don't mind.

1. I'm really curious about Alex Smith. I know he came in a few weeks ago and threw 3 Td passes but I have heard he has struggled since. My friend who is a 9ers' fan said he has been throwing the ball pretty well but has had some unlucky breaks. What do all you guys think?

2. That defense of yours really impresses me. I've only seen your games against the Vikes and the Bears and in both games your defense looked tremendous. I love the combination of Willis and Spikes in the middle, and I wish we had some hard nosed ILBs. Is there a particular strength of defense? Do you they do better against the run or the pass, or is it pretty balanced?

3. How is your pass rush off of the edges? As you guys probably know, our o-line is very weak, and has given up the majority of our sacks against is to De/Olb's.

4. And last but not least, what do you think the outcome of this weekend's game will be? My 9ers' friend said he thought it would be 24-17 with Gore, Crabtree, and Davis each getting a Td. I personally feel the end result will be a 24-14 win in our favor.

I have a feeling about this particular road game

2009-11-20T04:50:57Z

Not since the first road game against Arizona have I had this feeling in me that we were going to pull an upset. I didn't feel it in Minnesota and Indy when we had leads, because I knew somehow we'd lose. No I'm not making this up, but it's just a gut feeling that we're going to pull this one out. Does anyone feel the same way I do? I mean HUGE game, a road game, and at Green Bay where we have a lot of history. I hate Green Bay, well the team and city(not woodson, rodgers, or jennings). I just got this feeling Gore is going to score a couple TD's, our D is going to knock around Rodgers, and Smith is going to lead a drive to either get the lead back, or put the game away. This will be Smith's breakout game, and Crabtree is going to get his first TD as a Niner. Just a feeling guys, we got this in Lambeau. Anyone with me? 23-17 Niners, Alex...time to shine man

49ers QB - 2010

2009-11-19T17:56:18Z

I know that the season is not over yet, and Alex Smith can turn into the ‘quarter-back of the future’ we all hoped that he would be able to be when he was drafted 10 years ago. (Okay it really wasn’t ten years ago, but the past couple years have been painful and I aged quickly.) I wanted to look at 5 quarterbacks that will be free agents next year, or that would be easy to trade for.

David Carr - Carr was drafted #1 overall by the Texans in 2002. He played okay with the Texans, but was released in 2006 and signed with the Panthers. After 1 year with the Panthers Carr signed with the Giants, and has been on back-up QB status for 2 years. One can argue that when Carr signed with the Texans the team was so new that no rookie QB can succeed with a rookie team. Since being back-up with the Giants he has seen action in 7 games, throwing 3 touchdowns, no INT, and about 300 yards. While not that impressive, I am sure that in some of those 7 games his duty was just to run out the clock. Carr will be a free agent next year.

Tarvaris Jackson – Jackson was picked 64th overall in the 2006 draft. He was Brad Childress’ ‘hand-picked’ QB. Jackson has seen limited success playing in 27 games, starting 19. He has thrown 20 TDs, 18INTs for 3,442 yards. In 2008 he guaranteed the Vikings a play-off spot by beating the Giants the last week of the season. (I know that he didn’t play the whole year, but if it weren’t for that game the Vikings wouldn’t have been in the play-offs). However the Vikings lost in the first round of the play-offs to the Eagles. Jackson would be a free agent next year.

Derek Anderson – Anderson was picked 213th overall in 2005. One can say that the only reason he ever saw the field was because of Brady Quinn’s extensive hold out. Well Anderson made the most out of it taking the Browns 1 game away from the play-offs, but failed to make it. That season alone he throw 29 TDs, 19 INTs, for 3787 yards. And must we not forget… he was playing for the Browns. Last year and this year he hasn’t been great… but then again it is the Browns. How would he do if he had a decent O-Line, and play-makers?? We would have to trade for Anderson.

Chad Pennington – Pennington was picked 18th overall in 2000, and has twice won the NFL’s ‘Comeback Player of the Year’ award. Pennington’s career has been filled with injuries, but has still managed 102 TDs vs 62 INTs. I see a lot of comparisons between Pennington and Hill though, being more ‘game managers’ than ‘play makers.’ However Pennington was able to take a 1-15 Dolphins to the play-offs. He is 33 though, and in the football world that is getting old. Pennington will be a free agent next year.

Michael Vick – Vick was picked #1 overall by the Falcons. Vick has been to 3 pro-bowls, and has led the Falcons to the play-offs. He has 71 TDs, 51 INTs and 21 rushing touchdowns. He has set numerous NFL QB rushing records, but some people think that is his biggest fault, and that he really isn’t the best passer. Obviously signing Vick would bring a lot of baggage to the team, but could you imagine Vick, Gore, Davis, and Crabtree on the same team??? Getting Vick would depend on if the Eagles decide to keep him, but as of right now I don’t think they will.

Well that sums up the 5 QB’s that I wanted to talk about. Let me know your feelings below. I have attached a poll.

Poll

Who would you want to see as QB next year?

Jimmy Raye - Ken Whisenhunt

2009-11-19T03:17:53Z

Ken Whisenhunt became the HC of the Arizona Cardinals in 2007. He was kind of a hot property after being the OC of the Super Bowl winning Pittsburgh Steelers of 2005. Landing in the desert he inherited players like Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. This is not a misprint. He inherited those guys. Three of the best at their perspective positions in the NFL.

Whisenhunt went 8-8 in his first season in Arizona. The Cardinals averaged 25.2 points per game.

Jimmy Raye is in his first full season with the 49ers. He didn't come close to inheriting guys like Warner, Boldin & Fitzgerald. Currentlly the 49ers are averaging 20.4 points per game.

The difference (right now) between the hot OC and his three studs, as opposed to the OC nobody wanted and all of his question marks at the QB and WR position is 4.8 points per game. Less than two FG's.

In today's Arizona Republic there is an excellent article about how much more Whisenhunt can do with his offense in his THIRD season, as opposed to his FIRST.

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/cardinals/articles/2009/11/17/20091117cardsinsider1118.html

Here's one quote from the article:

In his third year with the Cardinals, Whisenhunt and his offensive staff can make those adjustments at the last minute, something he wouldn't have dared to try in his first season

Really. It's well worth reading. It's something to keep in mind as people constantly bash Jimmy Raye.

He's had less than a season with his offense. Perspectve. It's really a beautiful thing.

Week 11 Prediction Games

2009-11-18T20:19:33Z

This week the 49ers are playing a normal Sunday game, so we won't have the wild card option. After some discussions with howtheyscored we definitely want to use the wild card option in the future, but given that the season is over halfway done, we're going to save it for next season. If you have other ideas for improving/adjusting the prediction contest, we'll have a separate thread at the end of the season. If you don't want to forget them, feel free to email me (ninersnation@gmail.com).

So, for this week, make sure and provide predictions for all six games. As always, after the jump I've got the formatting rules and howtheyscored's breakdown of the scoring system. As always, all times are pacific.

49ers @ Green Bay- Sunday 11/22 10:00am

Tennessee @ Houston - MNF 11/23 5:30pm

Philadelphia @ Chicago - SNF 11/22 5:20pm

Atlanta @ NY Giants - Sunday 11/22 10:00am

Indianapolis @ Baltimore - Sunday 11/22 10:00am

San Diego @ Denver - Sunday 11/22 1:15pm

IMPORTANT NEW RULE

Up until now, folks have just posted their scores in any particular fashion, although howtheyscored has made requests for a specific format. Given the amount of time and effort howtheyscored has to put into determining the final results, I am implementing a requirement for how to format your scores (based on the spreadsheet howtheyscored has created). If you fail to follow this format, any incorrectly formatted scores for the week will be disqualified. The format is "Team A @ Team B: A score - B score." That basically is visitor @ home: visitor score - home score." Here's an example of how to do it:

Using Philadelphia @ Chicago below, if you think Chicago will win 24-14, here's how it HAS to look:

Philadelphia @ Chicago: 14 - 24

If you think Philadelphia will win 24-14, it needs to appear as this:

Philadelphia @ Chicago: 24 - 14

If you'd like you can bold the winner (Philadelphia @ Chicago: 14 - 24), but that is not required (although probably a good backup in case you reversed the score by accident.

If you make a mistake in the formatting I'll reply to your score reminding you to correct it. To correct it, simply reply to your picks and post them in the correct format. Do not post your scores again at the bottom of the thread. I'll make sure and include these directions each week so people do not forgot and lose out on points. As I mentioned above, we're doing this to make howtheyscored's life easier in figuring out the scores. The # of regular commenters has increased dramatically since last season, so we're anticipating a greater # of prediction contest participants. While this is a new rule, I don't think it's all that difficult for folks to follow it.

SCORING RULES

Every score is made up of two parts: Point total and point differential. First we see how close your prediction’s point total is to the actual score’s point total. The closer you are to zero, the better. Then, we see how close your prediction’s point differential is to the actual point differential. Again, closer to zero is better. Then, we add those two numbers together. That number gives you a raw score for your prediction.Then, we rank each game by raw scores. The players with the five lowest raw scores get points. The lowest get five points. Next lowest get four. And so on.

As an example of the scoring system, in week 7, the Vikings lost to the Steelers by a score of 17 - 27. The actual score had a point differential of 10 (27-17=10) and a point total of 44 (27+17=44).

For that game, let's look at three predictions: 1) 17 - 23, Pitt; 2) 23 - 27, Pitt; and 3) 17 - 27, Pitt.

Remember, nobody who predicted the Vikings to win the game was eligible for points.

The first prediction had a point differential of 6 (23-17=6). This was 4 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 40 (23+17=40). This was 4 away from the actual point total. All in all, that gives the prediction a raw score of 8.

The second prediction had a point differential of 4 (27-23=4), which was 6 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 50 (27+23=50), which was 6 away from the actual point total. That gives the prediction a raw score of 12.

The third prediction had a point differential of 10 (27-17=10), which was 0 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 44 (27+17=44), which was 0 away from the actual point total. That gives the prediction a raw score of 0.

Since the lower your raw score is, the better your prediction, the third prediction is ranked as the best and gets the most points (and since it was a perfect prediction, there is no arguing that it was the best). The first prediction had the next lowest raw score, so it ranks as the second best prediction of the group, netting the next most points. The second prediction, therefore, came in third.

If anybody has any questions at all about this, or anything else, feel free to email me at ninersnation@gmail.com.

Niners Nation hits the big time

2009-11-17T23:56:23Z

Well it played a small role in a petty spat, but the people involved were fairly famous. Author Malcolm Gladwell was ripping author Steven Pinker, who had unfavorably reviewed his new book. One of his criticisms was the fact that:

"Pinker’s third source was an article in the Columbia Journalism Review, prompted by my essay, that made an argument partly based on a link to a blog called “Niners Nation."

He uses us as a belittling shot, obviously unaware of the quality analysis happening here daily.

The article he references was this one, which was actually a review of some Football Outsiders stats. Ironically I think Gladwell cited his own stats from F.O. in the original piece on QBs that caused the argument. So its all pretty convoluted and unresearched on his part.....but funny place to come across the site.

SINGLETARY WAS HIRED BECAUSE OF SHAUN HILL !!

2009-11-17T07:02:44Z

SINGLETARY WAS HIRED BECAUSE OF SHAUN HILL !!!

Did everyone forget how horrible we were before Shaun Hill came in and changed things quickly ? Alex Smith and JT O' Sullivan were true laughing stocks at the quarterback position. Alex and JT were completely overwhelmed and fumbled and threw the ball wildly. I dont think I have ever seen such terrible performances from a NFL Quarterback. Then Mike Singletary steps in for Mike Nolan and starts Shaun Hill. Shaun Hill breaks the All-time completion record in his first starting game, and no one notices. And still have bad things to say about Shaun Hill. Shaun Hill wins 75 % of his games and still gets no respect. Then this year he is doing good also, but the play calling is run the ball on the first and second downs, then put tons of pressure on the quarterback to get at least 10 yards to get a first down, instead of realizing our running game is doomed because our Offensive line is terrible, and passing on the first down more often. Jimmy Raye and Mike Singletary also put Shaun Hill up on the center way too much when he had no time to react because of our weak Offensive Line. Dan Marino almost always played in the Shotgun formation because they had a weak Offensive Line and Dan Marino was incredibly accurate just like Shaun Hill. If you can hit your Reciever on the numbers and realize instinctively where the best spot to throw the ball is quickly, then you will get your recievers down field and score. This is why Shaun Hill was winning. And because we were winning, Mike Singletary was getting all the credit. I admit Mike Singletary is a great coach, but what the hell is he doing getting rid of ( Rossum ), ( Kory Sheets ), and the man who made him " ( SHAUN HILL ) ????

Week 10 Prediction Games: The Riveting Results

2009-11-17T06:21:04Z

I was actually kind of hoping that the Browns would win tonight because I promised that if they did, I would just fill this thread with a long stream of LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLs.

However, that was not to be. It would have made things so easy on me, too. Now I actually have to put a little more effort into mailing this thing in...

Chicago @ 49ers (Dallas @ Green Bay):

groug (14)
fortyniners (20)
PHUT!, illini49er, simiski, snowweasel, ro128487 (22)
sundaysfinest, Fooch (26)
bayboy, sfgfan, shulkdog, danknerd49, Ten-Man, howtheyscored, leaping_larry, wjackalope, 5-0, Mike Hawk (28)

Baltimore @ Cleveland:

shulkdog, shlecko, foosball4949 (16)
whobob, hudd07, illini49er, bonbrillio, Drew K, Ninerfromacrossthepond, LASVEGASNINER, jtoj (20)
bayboy, simiski, cassusriff, gbears16, SpurredOn, MontanaPass, JoeO (22)
danknerd49, groug (24)
snowweasel, CB30, jpgarfunkle (26)

New England @ Indianapolis:

hudd07 (6)
bonbrillio, jpgarfunkle (8)
whobob, shulkdog, gbears16, grantmp, jtoj (12)
Ninerfromacrossthepond, MontanaPass (14)
PHUT!, sundaysfinest, ZeroIndulgence, mpotter14, fortyniners, shlecko, foosball4949, CB30, wjackalope, urnext (20)

Jacksonville @ New York Jets:

Dub4lif3 (8)
DuikeBuike, nocal81 (10)
ZeroIndulgence (12)
ro128487 (14)
illini49er, jpgarfunkle (18)

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh:

shlecko (2)
ZeroIndulgence, J2daZ, rlott#42, gbears16 (10)
howtheyscored (16)
danknerd49, cassusriff (18)
49erLou, snowweasel, JoeO (22)

Philadelphia @ San Diego:

bonbrillio, Dubs fan in Boston, Mike Hawk (2)
ZeroIndulgence, grantmp (6)
illini49er, Ninerfromacrossthepond, DuikeBuike, gbears16, Fooch, foosball4949, etb2 (8)
hudd07, JoeO (10)
49erLou, leaping_larry, SpurredOn, beecharmer (14)

And that makes our week 10 leaderboard look like:

1.	groug	68
2.	ro128487	67
3.	PHUT!	66
4.	jpgarfunkle	61
5.	cassusriff	60
6.	JoeO	59
7.	howtheyscored	58
8.	nocal81	57
8.	Ninerfromacrossthepond	57
10.	DuikeBuike	56
10.	grantmp	56
12.	shlecko	54
13.	illini49er	53
13.	gbears16	53
15.	bignerd	51
16.	LASVEGASNINER	50
16.	bonbrillio	50
18.	5-0	49
18.	sfgfan	49
18.	wjackalope	49
21.	CB30	48
21.	etb2	48
23.	danknerd49	47
24.	ZeroIndulgence	46
25.	Dub4lif3	45
26.	YoungWillis	44
26.	nacho49	44
26.	SpurredOn	44
29.	urnext	43
30.	leaping_larry	42
30.	49erLou	42
32.	Ten-Man	41
32.	MontanaPass	41
32.	Mike Hawk	41
36.	Fooch	40
37.	Drew K	38
37.	jtoj	38
37.	J2daZ	38
37.	foosball4949	38
41.	youngbuckeroo	35
41.	these3words	35
41.	BEETLE49715	35
44.	mpotter14	34
44.	sundaysfinest	34
46.	bayboy	33
47.	renke81	32
47.	nini9er	32
47.	rlott#42	32
47.	beecharmer	32
51.	ProfessorBigelow	30
52.	Joshpreet	28
52.	whobob	28
52.	snowweasel30	28
55.	hudd07	27
56.	Persiflage	26
57.	remembertheCATCH	25
57.	Sloan	25
59.	ar4gsw	24
60.	albertoleecho	23
61.	49RFAN	22
61.	RBoogy29	22
63.	shulkdog	21
64.	Widowwolf	20
65.	mikemccwolf	19
66.	Kaizre	18
66.	49ersfan29405	18
68.	shovel-25	15
68.	Number22Drew	15
68.	fortyniners	15
71.	Florida Danny	14
72.	Ninjames	13
72.	corvette49rdave	13
72.	Dubs fan in Boston	13
75.	Riding The F Train	12
76.	proudcanadian99	10
76.	Iwantwinners	10
76.	Ceradecke	10
76.	49ERFAN	10
80.	Tony C	9
80.	ronniemac03	9
80.	Mr. Nice Guy	9
83.	Smithisstilltheanswer	8
84.	supraman	6
84.	lincypoo i wuv u	6
84.	FaStRmAn	6
84.	demise87	6
84.	crevis1987	6
84.	simiski	6
90.	49ersAllTheWay	5
91.	StevenC	3
91.	RilezG	3
91.	ManBearPig21	3
91.	LADubbz45	3
91.	JerseyNinerFan	3
91.	De Stijl	3
91.	CW30	3
98.	Tricky-Nicky	2
98.	connie mack	2
98.	Brendan Scolari	2
98.	dez4o8	2
102.	UnleashTheGore	1
102.	nostocksjustbonds	1

I can't decide if I should keep making fun of groug or stop making fun of him. History seems to suggest that I should stop. When I was making fun of wjackalope, he was always in the lead. Then I decided to stop, and now he's fighting for a playoff spot!

After wjackalope, I tuned my sharp wit and biting tongue toward groug. He was the recipient of many LOLs, and even a few lulz. But now look. I mean, what the heck? I'm blessed with this power, but I don't know how to use it for good!

So anyway, I guess I'll stop making fun of groug. But I have to poke fun at somebody. I mean, that's what makes this whole thing worthwhile for me. So, if you want, go ahead and use the comments section to tell me who I should make fun of.

In terms of who did well this week... well, man, groug aside... holy jeez, quite a few people. Ninerfromacrossthepond had one of the most impressive jumps, and is now comfortably nestled in the top 10. I've been warning you about this guy for weeks now, and he's making very, very steady steps toward the top spot.

I'd watch out if I were you, groug. I'd also feel confident in myself, as a handsome and intelligent person who doesn't even look creepy when he's staring at people. I mean, it's kind of endearing, really. I wish I were you sometimes. Not all the time. That would be weird. But sometimes. Like, 3 p.m. or so. My usual staring times.

Ahem.

Props to shlecko, too. A top 12 spot might be a playoff spot! I know I've been saying there are eight playoff spots, but I'm pretty sure I used 12 last season. Just like the NFL. I'll have to check, though.

To illini49er and gbears16: good job! To bonbrillio: major kudos for one seriously awesome week!

I want to mention newcomer simiski: not only a newcomer, but also a very fine week in the standings.

To shulkdog: Keep this up and things could get interesting for you.

ZeroIndulgence, snowweasel30, jpgarfunkle, cassusriff: pat yourselves on the back!

Fooch: I'd arrange a reverse jinx month of making fun of you so you could get back in this, but I know that you're just biding your time and don't really need my help. What's your plan? Week 13 for the strike? Holding off for the week 17, four perfect prediction performance? No... wait, don't tell me! I like the suspense better.

By the way, check your scores, people. I'm not perfect here. I mean, not all of us can be groug.

A few miles south of Soledad, the Salinas River drops in close to the hillside bank and runs deep and green. The water is warm too, for it has slipped twinkling over the yellow sands in the sunlight before reaching the narrow pool. On one side of the river the golden foothill slopes curve up to the strong and rocky Gabilan mountains, but on the valley side the water is lined with trees - willows fresh and green with every spring, carrying in their lower leaf junctures the debris of the winter's flooding: and sycamores with mottled, white, recumbent limbs and branches that arch over the pool.

Adjusted Remaining Strength of Schedule

2009-10-30T01:17:55Z

Looks like a couple of other posts going around about remaining games, here's one more from Fantasy Football Cafe with an adjusted calculations for the remaining games.

Week 9 update: Looks like Cardinals still have 2nd easiest schedule, while 49ers are at 5th easiest. Carolina draft pick watch- they have the 5th toughest schedule.

Updated Wildcard watch- Looks like Cowboys record is better and remaining schedule is easier than Eagles and Giants (normal strength of schedule says that Eagles and Cowboys remaining schedule is same difficulty). Cowboys win that Division, and let's assume Cardinals win the division.

49ers have a much easier schedule than the Bears and Panthers, so 49ers have the edge over the other 4-5 teams. So there are 2 spots left for 5 teams. Falcons have same difficulty schedule as 49ers, and Falcons win the tie breaker, so let's give that wildcard spot to Falcons. Giants have a tough schedule remaining.

49ers have an easier schedule than Packers and Eagles, but thoese teams have a 1 game lead so far. Looks like the head to head matchups in those games will be huge.

_______________________________________________________________________________

I found a site that has calculated an adjusted Strength of Remaining Schedule.

In addition to the basic strength of schedule using records of teams with remaining games, they have a category where they adjusted a teams record based on the strength of schedule of the games they already played. This is described more after the jump.

We know where we are relative to the Cardinals, but here are the other potential wild-card teams (Vikings and Saints only teams not included)

Rank of Adjusted Strength of Schedule Remaining. (1 = easiest schedule)

9. Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
2. Arizona Cardinals (5-4)
6. Atlanta Falcons (5-4)
12. Green Bay Packers (5-4)
16. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
24. NY Giants (5-4)
5. San Francisco 49ers (4-5)
14. Chicago Bears (4-5)
28. Carolina Panthers (4-5)

Here is the link, I have also copy pasted their page completely after the jump.

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/schedule_strength.php

Strength of Schedule

Most strength of remaining schedule calculations suffer from two flaws:

1. Although strength of schedule charts are based on the assumption that not all wins are equal, the data used to assess the opponents' strength is based on those same raw winning percentages.

2. Due to injuries and other short-term events, the strength of teams can fluctuate over an NFL season, so past statistics don't always give an accurate picture of the true difficulty of the matchups ahead.

To alleviate those flaws, the Cafe has come up with a different method to assess Strength of Schedule:

1. When calculating the winning percentage of future opponents, the strength of their past schedule is part of the equation. Hence, a team with a 7-3 record that had an easy schedule so far will be considered a weaker opponent than a team with a 7-3 record that has beaten teams which themselves have a high winning percentage. Although the actual data is still based on winning percentages, the deeper algorithm should provide for more accurate results.

2. To accomodate short-term changes in team strength, the Cafe's Strength of Schedule chart also uses the data provided by Cafe experts who rank the current team strength each and every week in what is known as the Cafe's NFL Barometer.

Ultimately, these two figures are merged to create the Cafe's Strength of Schedule rankings. Enjoy!

TEAM	Class W%	Cafe W%	Enh W%	Bar W%
Cincinnati (7-2)	0.387	0.692	0.384	1.000
Arizona (6-3)	0.365	0.692	0.384	1.000
New Orleans (9-0)	0.413	0.700	0.400	1.000
Pittsburgh (6-3)	0.367	0.700	0.400	1.000
San Francisco (4-5)	0.413	0.711	0.421	1.000
Atlanta (5-4)	0.444	0.712	0.424	1.000
Seattle (3-6)	0.429	0.718	0.436	1.000
San Diego (6-3)	0.452	0.726	0.452	1.000
Dallas (6-3)	0.524	0.729	0.457	1.000
Denver (6-3)	0.492	0.734	0.468	1.000
Cleveland (1-7)	0.465	0.739	0.478	1.000
Green Bay (5-4)	0.452	0.743	0.487	1.000
Baltimore (4-4)	0.479	0.749	0.497	1.000
Chicago (4-5)	0.516	0.751	0.501	1.000
Indianapolis (9-0)	0.484	0.752	0.503	1.000
Philadelphia (5-4)	0.524	0.754	0.507	1.000
Houston (5-4)	0.492	0.756	0.513	1.000
St. Louis (1-8)	0.492	0.759	0.518	1.000
Miami (4-5)	0.508	0.759	0.519	1.000
Minnesota (8-1)	0.524	0.765	0.529	1.000
New England (6-3)	0.540	0.766	0.532	1.000
Jacksonville (5-4)	0.516	0.770	0.539	1.000
Detroit (1-8)	0.508	0.770	0.540	1.000
NY Giants (5-4)	0.587	0.771	0.542	1.000
Oakland (2-7)	0.541	0.777	0.554	1.000
Buffalo (3-6)	0.556	0.777	0.555	1.000
NY Jets (4-5)	0.556	0.779	0.558	1.000
Carolina (4-5)	0.587	0.779	0.558	1.000
Tennessee (3-6)	0.540	0.780	0.561	1.000
Washington (3-6)	0.619	0.783	0.567	1.000
Kansas City (2-7)	0.565	0.791	0.582	1.000
Tampa Bay (1-8)	0.619	0.804	0.607	1.000

Legend
Class W% = Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents (classical version)
Cafe W% = Average between Enh W% and Bar W%
Enh W% = Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents, where strength of schedule is calculated two levels deep (enhanced version)
Bar W% = Simulated winning percentage based on the Cafe's weekly NFL Barometer (posted in the Cafe's Rankings section)

49ers 10 - Bears 6: Play-by-play

2009-11-16T18:47:08Z

Fooch's Note: Thanks again to smileyman for another great look at the play-by-play from the 49ers game. We'll continue moving these to the front page each week.

Thursday's game was an interesting experience. For those of us on NFL Network we were blessed with no audio from the announcing booth for nearly 1 quarter. The field seemed very wet--lots of people slipping and falling on both teams. The camera angles were also very odd, as if NFL Network was trying to make us all dizzy. The game was a close one. 5 interceptions thrown by Cutler, 1 by Smith in a game that was either a great defensive battle or an ugly offensive performance (depending on your point of view I suppose).

By the way, on Tuesday night I had a dream that we pulled out a close win and then went on a streak winning the rest of our games. We'll see what happens--GB is next and we haven't won there since 1996. Their O-line is not good, but we're ranked 29th against the pass and Aaron Rodgers can air it out.

1st Drive
1st play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 1 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Walker split left. Davis and Crabtree right. 15 yard pass to Crabtree ruled out of bounds. Sing challenges and call upheld.

2nd play (2nd and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Walker split left. Davis in down position. Crabtree and Morgan on right side. Quick crossing pattern with Crabtree and Morgan. Complete to Crabtee for 10 yards.

3rd play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Walker lined out on right side. Morgan and Crabtree on left. Davis in down position on left. Run for five yards. I think this was a poorly designed play, even though it got us five yards.

Look who Josh Morgan is supposed to make the block on. No way he can do that before the LB comes up to make the stop (which he did). We get somebody on him and maybe that 5 yard run turnes into 7 or 8.

4th play (2nd and 5)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Morgan and Crabtree lined up on right side. Morgan comes in motion to left. Davis in down position on left. Completely obvious that it's a run. Gore just powers his way for 3 yards.

5th play (3rd and 3)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Walker far left, Crabtree inside left. Davis inside on right, Morgan far right. Crossing pattern complete to Crabtree. Offsides on defense. Simms whiffs on his block and practically pushes his man into Smith.

6th play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Davis in down position on right side. Walker split out on right side. Crabtree on far left, Morgan on inside left. Complete to Davis on the left side. Here's why I don't like this play. Davis has to hit the guy in front of him, then turn and run a pattern parallel to the O-line. It's a play that's only designed to get 3 or 4 yards, but it takes 3 seconds to complete. You should not take 3 seconds to complete a 5 yard throw. Davis is beast enough that he took a 4 yard completion and made it 6 yards.

7th play (2nd and 4)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Davis up on right side, Walker up on left side, Morgan up on left side. Run up the middle for 2 or 3 yards. Defense called for offsides

8th play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Davis and Walker both in down position on right side. Morgan far right, Crabtree far left. Davis flagged for offsides (he's got a ton of these)

9th play (1st and 15)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Crabtee left, Walker left. Davis in down position on right side, with Morgan right next to him. Walker goes in motion and lines up behind Davis. Both Crabtree and Morgan are within 5 yards of the line. Couldn't be more obvious that it's a run. Gore off right tackle for 8 yards (because he's a beast). We do run some pass plays with the FB in but our receivers aren't lined up so close to the tackles.

10th play (2nd and 7)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Morgan far left, Walker inside. Davis lined up just back of the RT. Crabtree far right. Davis goes in motion to center then back out. Incomplete pass to Crabtree (he should've had that one).

11th play (3rd and 7)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Davis and Hill on right side. Morgan and Crabtree on left side. Davis goes in motion to center then back. Snyder misses his man and sacks Smith. There were two players open in the middle--Crabtree and Gore. Smith needs to learn to make his reads quicker.

12th play--missed field goal.

2nd Drive
1st play (1st and 10)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 FB, 1 RB. Davis is down on right side. Morgan on right side. Crabtree on left. Morgan comes in motion to left then lines up right behind left tackle. Run to right side for 4 yards. Line shifts their blocks to the left, Baas pulls to the right to pick up the extra man.

2nd play (2nd and 6)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 FB, 1 RB. Crabtree right. Norris on right side. Davis in down position on left side. Morgan out. Norris comes in motion to center. I don't like this play either. Gore is 7 yards back of the LOS when the ball is snapped. The game is so fast that the defense can get to the LOS before (or at the same time) that Gore does. This run is stuffed.

3rd play (3rd and 6)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Crabtree out left. Then Morgan. Davis in up postion on left side. Hill out right. Davis goes in motion. Pass complete to Jason Hill who makes a great effort to get the 1st down. Really good protection

4th play--punt

3rd Drive
1st play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Crabtree far left, Morgan inside. Walker and Davis in down position on right side. Morgan goes in motion to left. Decent protection. Smith holds on to the ball to long and is sacked.

2nd play (2nd and 15)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Walker and Crabtree left, Davis and Morgan right. Davis called for offsides.

3rd play (2nd and 18)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Davis in down position on left side. Crabtree far left. Walker comes in motion from left side to right. Quick pass to Morgan for a gain of 11 (good job of Morgan fighting for yards).

4th play (3rd and 7)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Crabtree far left. Davis in down postion off RT. Walker in down position behind him. Morgan far right. Walker goes in motion to left side. Plenty of time in the pocket. Pass dumped off to Gore for 4 yards.

5th play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Davis in down position on right side. Morgan far right. Crabtree far left. Walker inside left. Shovel pass to Gore for 9 yards.

6th play (2nd and 1)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 FB, 1 RB. Davis in down position on left side. Morgan and Crabtree on left. Morgan goes in motion to center then lines up behind LT. Run up the middle for 1 yard.

7th play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Davis on right side, Walker on left. Morgan on right side, Crabtree on right. Snyder misses his man who knocks down Smith's pass intended for Davis.

8th play (2nd and 10)--2 TE, 2 Wr, 1 RB. In shotgun. Davis on left side, Walker on right. Morgan on right. Crabtree on left. Davis goes in motion to left side. Draw for 4 yards.

9th play (3rd and 6)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Davis and Morgan left. Hill and Crabtree right. Davis goes in motion and lines up behind RT. Complete to Morgan for 6 yards.

10th play (1st and 10)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Davis in down position on right side. Morgan far right. Crabtree far left. Deep ball intercepted. Crabtree stumbled. (The field seemed very wet to me)

4th Drive (1st and 10)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. Davis down in right position. Crabtree far right. Morgan and Hill left. Run off RT for TD. Some great blocks here. The line blocks to the left, Baas pulls and picks up the extra man. It looks to me like Davis takes on two guys. TD is the result (This play works very well for our running game. Every time we run it we get at least 4 or 5 yards.

5th Drive
1st play (1st and 10)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Davis in down position on right side. Morgan and Crabtree left. Off LG for 3 yards.

2nd play (2nd and 7)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Davis down on left. Morgan and Crabtree right. Morgan goes in motion to center comes back and lines up behind Davis. Baas gets stomped by Tommie Harris who tackles Gore for a loss of 3 yards.

3rd play (3rd and 10)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Davis in down position on right side. Crabtree left. Morgan and Hill right side. Quick out to Crabtree for 5 yards. I don't like this play call. You need 10 yards and you call a play that's only designed to get 5 yards.

4th play--Punt

6th Drive
1st play (1st and 10)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Davis in down position on left side. Morgan and Crabtree on right side. Morgan goes in motion to left side. Run up the middle for no gain.

2nd play (2nd and 10)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Davis in down position on right side. Crabtree on left, Morgan on right. Quick pass to Gore for a loss of 2 yards.

3rd play (3rd and 12)--1 TE, 2 WR, 2 RB. In shotgun. Crabtree far right. Morgan far left. Davis near left. Decent protection. Right side of pocket collapses as Smith throws and the ball is knocked loose and intercepted. Called back for offsides on defense.

4th play (3rd and 7)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Davis in down position on right side. Crabtree far right. Morgan far left. Hill near left. Draw to Gore for 6 yards.

5th play (4th and a foot)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Davis down on right side. Walker lined up off LT in up position. Crabtree left. Morgan right. QB sneak no gain.

7th Drive
1st play (1st and 10)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Davis down on left side. Crabtree far right, Morgan inside right. Pass to Crabtree for 20 yards. I like this call. Everyone is expecting run because Norris is in. We've got 8 men in the box, the guy covering Crabtree is eyeing the center because he's expecting run as well. He starts backing up and moving to his right to get closer to the action and Crabtree blows by him.

2nd play (1st and 10)--Same formation as above. Morgan goes in motion to left. Pass to Morgan across the middle for 4 yards. Bad decision by Smith. Chicago blitzes leaving man-on-man coverage. Crabtee is wide open on the right side, but Smith locks into Morgan from the beginning.

3rd play (2nd and 6)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Davis down on left. Morgan left, Crabtree right. Morgan goes in motion to right. Run for -2 yards.

4th play (3rd and 18)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Morgan and Hill on left. Davis and Crabtree right. Davis goes in motion to the center and then back. Morgan called for false start.

5th play (3rd and 13)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Gore lined out far left. Crabtree inside. Davis on right side, then Morgan and Hill. Davis in motion to center then back out. Screen pass to Davis for 5 yards. (Snyder was called for illegal man downfield on this one but Chicago declined)

8th Drive
1st play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Walker down on left, Davis down on right. Morgan split right, Crabtree left. Walker goes in motion right then back to left. Run right side for no gain.

2nd play (2nd and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Walker down on left, Davis down on right.

Crabtree far left, Morgan near left. Walker goes in motion to right side. Pass to VD for 5 yards.

3rd play (3rd and 5)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Crabtree far right. Davis inside right. Morgan and Hill left. Quick pass incomplete to Morgan (who slipped)

9th Drive
1st play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1RB. Davis down on right. Crabtree inside on right. Walker outside on far right. Morgan left. Crabtree in motion to center then back out. Right side starts breaking down. Pass to Gore out in left flat gain for 5 yards.

2nd play (2nd and 5)--2 TE, 2 WR. Davis down on left side. Walker down next to him. Morgan inside right, Crabtree outside right. Walker goes in motion, then comes back. Incomplete pass (nobody open Smith throws it away).

3rd play (3rd and 5)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Crabtree far left. Davis, Morgan, and Hill on right side in "bunch" formation. I like this formation. You've got 3 guys who can either go out in crossing patterns and bump off defenders or you can run. Direct snap to Gore for 25 yards. Rachal makes a beautiful block in the secondary to spring Gore free. Fumble recovered by Morgan.

4th play (1st and goal at the 6)--2 TE, 1 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Davis and Walker down on right side, Morgan out left. Walker goes in motion left. Run off LT for 4 yards.

5th play (2st and goal at the 2)--Same formation. Walker stays put. Same call for -2 yards t

his time. I hate this call. You've got everybody shifting their defender left, leaving Gore one-on-one. Davis tries to arm block his guy who puts an early hit on Gore. I think this is a poorly designed play. You've got an un-impeded defender comign through, and your fullback is lined up on the wrong side to block him! Sure Gore has great finishing power, but what use is the FB in that situation!?!

6th play (2nd and goal at the 3)--In shotgun. Morgan and Crabtree right, Hill far left, Davis near left. Davis goes in motion from far right to inside right. Snyder falls down almost immediately putting pressure on Alex). Luckily Rachal has already picked up that defender. Chicago's safety stays in and puts pressure on Smith who has to throw it away. If Snyder doesn't fall he pick up the safety, leaving room for Alex to roll out and either find Morgan open or run it in.

7th play--FG

10th Drive
1st play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Crabtree right. Davis right in down position. Walker inside left, Morgan far left. Gore lined up on right side of Alex goes in motion to left side. Run loses 1 yard on the play

2nd play (2nd and 11)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Davis down on left. Walker lined up right side. Morgan inside left, Crabtree outside left. Gorgeus blocks by Rachal and Heitmann to open a huge hole for Gore. Gain of 23 yards.

3rd play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Walker lined up right. Davis on left side in down position. Morgan inside left, Crabtree far left. Gore starts on right side of Alex, goes in motion to left side. Run off LT for 3 yards. This is the same play as before except Sims gets beat forcing Gore to cut left. Huge hole on right side again. If Gore is able to make it it's his 4th TD run of the season of more than 60 yards.

4th play (2nd and 7)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Walker far left. Davis in down position on right side. Morgan inside right, Crabtree far right. Gore on left side of Davis, goes in motion to right side. Up the middle for 4.

5th play (3rd and 3)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Crabtree far left. Morgan inside right, Davis inside right, Hill far right (in bunch formation). Davis in motion to center and back. Snyder pulls. M-Rob off the right side for 4 yards (Gore was out taking a breather).

6th play (1st and 10)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Davis down on right side. Jason Hill inside left, Crabtree outside left. Gore off right side for no gain.

7th play (2nd and 10)--Same formation. Snyder misses his man completely. Pass incomplete to Norris (who let it bounce off his hands). Offsides called on Chicago

8th play (2nd and 5)--1 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 FB. Davis down on right side. Hill far right, Crabtree far left. Hill goes in motion lining up off the LT. Gore to right side for 2 yards.

9th play (3rd and 3)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Davis in up position on left side. Morgan next to him. Crabtree far left. Hill on right. Davis goes in motion to right side. Quick pass to M-Rob who slips as he catches it for 4 yards.

10th play (1st and 10)--2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB. Davis down on left side. Crabtree far right. Walker up on left side. Morgan far left. Gore up the middle for no gain.

11th play (2nd and 10)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Crabtree far right. Davis, Morgan, Hill on left side in "bunch" formation. Davis goes in motion to center then back. Gore up the middle for 2 yards.

12th play (3rd and 8)--1 TE, 3 WR, 1 RB. In shotgun. Hill far right. Davis, Morgan, Crabtree in "bunch" position on left. Davis in motion to right. Pressure almost immediately. Alex scrambles for 2 yards.

Some thoughts:

1. I know why Walker doesn't get many balls thrown his way. He runs terrible routes. I tried to pay close attention to him and he just doesn't put that much effort into getting open.

2. Our defense really needs to work on the 2 minute drill. Killed us at Minnesota, at Indy, and almost killed us again.

3. I don't like our OLBs. They're not big enough to get pressure on the QB, and they're not quick enough to chase down speed guys on the outside. We get killed with outside runs and screens. (Matt Forte had 120 yards receiving against us. Chris Johnson burned us for 135 yards on the ground (would've been closer to 200 if not for some penalties).

4. We also have problems covering opposing Tight Ends on seam routes in the middle of the field.

5. I'm not sure how I feel about Raye as OC. Our offense is moving along pretty good. We had some really nice drives, and the running game appears to be picking up. I couldn't point to many bone-headed calls, but some of his plays just aren't designed well. Sure we can point to lack of execution, but if you've got a play that's a poor design no amount of execution will ovecome it.

6. Our line has gotten better though Snyder is a horrible RT.

7. Alex Smith still needs to work on his reads. He's still got a tendency to pick a target early. He's not locking in as much, but he missed some wide open receivers on Thursday night's game.

8. Roman was lucky that his lone interception wasn't overturned on PI. He bumped the guy just enough to knock him out of the way. Any harder and it would have been pass interference, not an interception.

9. We've got a really solid core of LB's. Of course we've got Willis, but Wilhelm has been a great find for us, and McKillop is also pretty good.

10. I'd like to see more of both Jason Hill and M-Rob. I hate running FB plays. Norris can't catch and he's not all that great at blocking. I'd rather see M-Rob in there giving us two options at RB.

NFC Playoff Race: A Cluster Jam Of Teams!!!

2009-11-16T05:22:47Z

As we continue to wonder what in heck Billacheck was thinking in going for it at his own 28 up by 6, i will attempt to change the subject from this crazy stuff

Has anyone taken a look at the NFC standings after the dust cleared tonight? I know we all had hoped Seattle would be able to beat Arizona but the standings are favorable to the 49ers, maybe not in the division but for the wildcard, yes the wildcard.

1. New Orleans 9-0

2. Minnesota 8-1

3. Dallas 6-3

4. Arizona 6-3

5. Philadelphia 5-4

5. Atlanta 5-4

5. Green Bay 5-4

5. New York 5-4

9. San Francisco 4-5

9. Carolina 4-5

9. Chicago 4-5

Now two of the teams with 5-4 or 4-5 records will be making the playoffs. Of those 7 teams the 49ers have beaten Chicago while losing to Atlanta. They also play Philadelphia and Green Bay in the coming weeks. It isn't exactly controlling your own destiny but the game in Green Bay next week will go a long way in determining where we stand in terms of the wild card race. Also keep in mind that Philadelphia, New York and Chicago continue to struggle and may for the rest of the season. As many issues as San Francisco has these other teams around the .500 mark do as well. Philadelphia is way too one dimensional and have a affinity for playing down to their opponents. Atlanta lost Brian Williams there #1 corner for the season and Michael Turner left today's game with an injury, the extent yet to be known. Green Bay played a really good game against Dallas today but also has shown a lot of inconsistent play over the season, especially losing to Tampa Bay. New York is in complete shambles losing 4 games in a row with the pass defense absolutely horrible. Those are the teams ahead of us in the wild card standings. Now let me examine each teams remaining schedules for comparison sake.

Opponents Combined Records Toughest Games

Philadelphia: 33-30 At- New York, At- Dallas and Vs- Denver

Atlanta: 28-34 AT- New York, VS- Philadelphia, AT- N. Orleans

Green Bay: 30-33 VS- 49ers, AT- Pittsburgh and AT- Arizona

New York: 37-26 AT- Denver, VS- Dallas and AT- Minnesota

San Francisco: 26-37 AT- Green Bay, VS- Arizona and VS- Philadelphia

Now as we look at these teams opponent records one thing is clear. The 49ers have the easiest schedule followed closely by Atlanta. Considering the Falcons have already beat us i think it would be hard for us to overtake for the #5 seed. But that leaves one other spot open going up against teams that we play later in the season who also have decisively harder schedules. Of course this could all for not. Arizona is only 2 games ahead of us and we have a home Monday Night game against them. One thing is pretty obvious, we must win in Green Bay or none of this really matters.

Poll

What Is The 49ers easiest path to the playoffs.

One thing the Jay Cutler situation should prove to us

2009-11-15T20:57:20Z

I have to be honest, before this season I was not an Alex Smith supporter. I did not think he would ever mean anything to the Niners again and I saw Shaun Hill starting for the entire season (not putting up great numbers) and then we would draft a solid QB next season if Davis was someone that was always going to be a back-up.

This offseason, I was hoping, praying that the 49ers would find a QB that could ball. I wanted to see someone who could bomb the ball, who could make deep throws that would open up the running game. As much as I knew it would cost the 49ers too much, inside I was slightly hoping that they would make a play for Cutler. But, this Bears situation with him should teach us all a very important lesson. That lesson is that the QB isn't everything on the football field.

Being so sick of seeing lackluster QBing from the 49ers since Garcia left, I was desiring a solid QB desparately. So were the Bears. Orton was to the Bears as Shaun Hill was to the 49ers, someone who was a game manager, nothing fancy. They felt that if they got a good QB, everything would take care of itself, and I was even guilty of predicting the NFC North to be one of the toughest divisions (the Lions aside) in the NFL and the Bears to win the division. The problem is that the QB isn't everything. The Bears don't have an O-line (they are worse then ours) and they don't have solid receivers (they are worse then ours).

The 49ers need some time. I'm not saying I don't think they can make the playoffs, but give them another year or two. Give Alex the rest of this year and maybe even next year as well. He doesn't have a real good o-line. Cutler can make great throws, so can Alex, if they have time in the pocket. His receivers are ok, but not the greatest yet. I think this is one reason that he has looked so bad at times. Cutler was so good the past few years with the Broncos, but put him on a different team and he is terrible. QB's like Joe Flacco should be so happy with their situation. The Ravens had a whole team except a QB and last year they proved it. I really believe that Alex Smith can be a great QB, if the rest of the team builds around him. Keep the coaching staff (we NEED stability at the OC), keep building our O-line in the draft and I really think he's gonna be ok. We all desparately want to see winning now (I do more than most), but I think this is a situation where no matter what happens this season, we can't call for anyone's head. This year was a great learning year (whether we make the playoffs or not) now lets keep building and get out there and dominate next season. Let's draft an O-lineman in the first round and bring some more stability there and then see how Alex plays.

Regarding our QB situation next year.

2009-11-14T21:48:53Z

So i keep hearing about Nate Davis, Smith, Hill...

I don't think there is much of a chance that Hill get back under center. I hope Smith can get it together.

But the thing i'm trying to figure out is why do we talk about how nate davis isn't ready. so we should draft another QB next year.

So your telling me that if we draft a Qb next year the conversation won't be about how he needs to wait a year? i don't know how many are comfortable with starting a rookie QB that we would draft next year, over Nate who has been in the system for a year, ofcourse given Smith continues on his journey of underachieving.

Playoff Defense, Pop Warner Offense Handcuff Singletary

2009-11-14T16:32:21Z

I love Mike Singletary. I have been a fan of his since he destroyed opposing offenses when he roamed the field for the Monsters of the Midway. I was thrilled when he was named Head Coach of the San Franciso 49ers and admire his great motivational and leadership qualities. There is no chance the 49ers will ever have a poor defense with Mike at the helm. Offense, on the other hand, appears to be another story.

SINGLETARY COMMENTS ON 49er OFFENSE AFTER BEARS DEBACLE:

"I thought [QB] Alex [Smith] did a good job."

"I thought our offense did what they needed to do in order for us to win the game. Yes, we would have like to have gotten more points, and I think that will come."

"I thought we did a good job running the ball. We felt that we could be effective running the ball, and it showed later on. And, because I felt our defense would do a good job against their offense, it’s the reason that later on in the game we decided to run the ball more and not take a risk in throwing the ball and run some time off the clock and put the game away. And, that’s pretty much it."

With all due respect, Mike, what the hell are you thinking? The offense did not do what they needed to do to win the game. They did everything they could to lose the game and it was only the heads up play of the defense combined with Jay Cutler's horrible performance that barely enabled the Niners to escape with a victory. The play calling makes the word vanilla look radical. It was pathetic, and I am disappointed to know that you think it was good.

Most 49er teams throughout history would have buried the Bears by three or four touchdowns, and Mike, I've seen every 49er team in history. Let's face it, Mike. Alex Smith lacks the natural instincts to be a consistent leader of a team. He doesn't even believe in himself, how do you expect the rest of the team to fall behind your rather transparent praise of him?

As to running the ball, you continued to run the ball because you don't trust Alex Smith and I don't blame you. Come on, Mike, for a man committed to honesty your words of praise about him ring hollow. I realize that you have few choices. Shaun Hill was only a shadow of the leader we came to love the past couple of seasons and Alex Smith will never be more than Alex Smith. A pass is only a risk when you have a mediocre QB throwing the ball.

When the light bulb goes off in your head and you finally admit to yourself that this is true, the 49ers will have hope for the future.

SINGLETARY'S OBVIOUS ALTERNATIVE:

Mike now faces a true dilemma. He has #7 sitting on the bench. Nate Davis is a big kid who can run the spread effectively. He makes quicker decisions than Alex Smith, has a stronger and more accurate arm, is more mobile, and plays with poise and confidence, something Alex has not done in five years. His rocket arm is impressive and with receivers like Crabtree, Morgan, Hill and Jones, this talent is being wasted on the bench.

Naysayers and youthful Niner fans who know nothing about winning or consistency, see Alex Smith as a failed project and blame the team for throwing him in the mix too early. Maybe they are right. They post on various forums that Nate should sit not only this season but next, too. They are scared to death to ruin another QB prospect the way they feel that Smith was ruined. Frankly, Scarlet, I don't give a damn.

Dan Marino, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and now Josh Freeman, have all benefited from playing in their rookie season. Nate Davis is a man, not a little kid who has to be protected like the current QB. Give him a chance.

PREDICTION:

Mike, if you stick with Alex and your Pop Warner level offense, the playoffs will be out of reach and you will lose the support of many 49er fans who see the potential greatness in Nate Davis, and blame you and Jimmy Raye for the most boring 49er offense in history -- and justifiably so. As it stands now, Mike, you will deserve all the criticism you receive.

Get Nate Davis in there running the spread with Crabtree, Hill, Morgan and Jones, put Bruce out to pasture, and you will create some excitement in San Francisco. Until you do that, your Pop Warner offense will continue to be:

BORING

and the fans continue to wait...

Game Notes, by Andrew Davidson

2009-11-13T17:52:00Z

Apologies to Smileyman, I'm not trying to steal his thunder in any way here with my play-by-play log from last night's game. I just thought we could all get a laugh at my terrible game notes from last night. I couldn't include everything, as they were either just ticks in a column (QB pressures/QB hits, things of that sort) or contained far too much [site decorum] material. Please note that I'm claiming my play-by-play tracking to be 100% accurate, or holy. Again, I'm posting this simply with humorous intent.

NOTE: I do not do this for every game, only when asked to do a post game recap. In other words, this won't be a weekly feature (sorry to let you guys down). I will, however, post these any time I do game recaps, so I can LOL while you guys sit around thinking "WTF?".

Official Alex Smith [Over]Reaction Thread: Bears Edition

2009-11-12T20:41:31Z

So here's the deal: In the interest of not having nine FanPosts in two hours after this game from people who simply have no other way to express a very important piece of their minds about Alex Smith's horrible/awesome/okay/weird performance in tonight's game on these boards, Fooch and I decided that it would be best to create a place for those discussions to take place.

So tonight, after the game, instead of making a brand new FanPost about how you feel Alex Smith played, please post here. Since we've created this official resource, we won't be hesitant to clean out extraneous threads that do get opened after the game. Post here. Ferreals.

And by way of extension, you can also use this thread to react to Frank Gore/Michael Crabtree/Vernon Davis/Scott McKillop/Etc.

But mostly Alex Smith. Boy, that guy had a good/bad/weird/okay/flukey game tonight. It's almost unbelievable how much one of those things he played!

And have fun with the poll.

Poll

Boy Alex Smith played...

The '88 49ers Shuffle

2009-11-12T20:38:19Z

Who remembers when the 49ers came out with their version of the Superbowl Shuffle? What better time to create a FanPost dedicated to some sort of shuffle or another, as the Niners lead by Coach Mike Singletary, take on his former team the Chicago Bears...

This is a must see for those of you who were too young to remember and to anyone else that may have never caught this video. This was created by some of the team post-Superbowl XXIII. Many know of or have heard of the Superbowl Shuffle (the original) with Fridge Perry, Walter Payton, Jim McMahon, and who else but our own Samuri Mike. There's been a few other teams that have tried to replicate this funny tradition and I find myself wondering how a Superbowl Shuffle would go like if this team finds themselves winning one in a couple to few years and who would lead them in song, or rap, or crunk...or whatever. VD? Frank the Tank?...maybe even Alex Smith? Somehow I find it hard to picture Smith not sounding completely..well...for lack of a better term "white". P Willy would definitely have to have a few verses but I think it would be fun to watch none the less

Anyway, I hope you all find this as entertaining and funny as I did. Enjoy.

There's some pretty creative people on NN, so if some of you all would like, feel free putting together some of your own lyrics using the 2009 49ers roster and key players.

habits/superstitions

2009-11-12T16:44:18Z

ok so this is a little random, but im curious what everyone else does on game day to start it off "right". although ive watched the niners since i was a baby (dad was a huge fan throughout the 80's-on) during the last 3-4 years ive become much more attached to the game.

basically on a gameday i HAVE to put on my jersey first thing when i get up, sometimes this means no shower... Lately ive been forcing my girlfriend to put one on too (she's not a huge football fan) and since i started that, the Niners have lost 4, so today i'm not letting her wear it. hopefully a good game tonight, experts are picking Niners on NFL network, not that that means anything.

i was expecting to work today so i was worried about my jersey wearing... the hardhat was going to have to do. got the day off, so jersey it is. what are you guys doing.

Niners Nation: FanPosts

10 things the 49ers should not do

Who should most not be themselves this week?

Still think the Niners will reach the playoffs???

Packers fan with some questions

I have a feeling about this particular road game

49ers QB - 2010

Who would you want to see as QB next year?

Jimmy Raye - Ken Whisenhunt

Week 11 Prediction Games

Niners Nation hits the big time

SINGLETARY WAS HIRED BECAUSE OF SHAUN HILL !!

Week 10 Prediction Games: The Riveting Results

*Adjusted* Remaining Strength of Schedule

49ers 10 - Bears 6: Play-by-play

NFC Playoff Race: A Cluster Jam Of Teams!!!

What Is The 49ers easiest path to the playoffs.

One thing the Jay Cutler situation should prove to us

Regarding our QB situation next year.

Playoff Defense, Pop Warner Offense Handcuff Singletary

Game Notes, by Andrew Davidson

Official Alex Smith [Over]Reaction Thread: Bears Edition

Boy Alex Smith played...

The '88 49ers Shuffle

habits/superstitions

Adjusted Remaining Strength of Schedule