Here's a link to a video from the World-Wide Leader where McShay compares the success the teams in the NFC West had in the draft.

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/videopage?videoId=3372865&categoryId=2459789&n8pe6c=2

He ranked the Niners 1st, Seahawks 2nd, Rams, 3rd, and the Cards 4th in the division.  The consensus seems to be that the Niners draft wasn't a home run, but that it also wasn't a stinker, and when you put it into a context that actually matters (how does the talent we picked up stack up in comparison with the talent picked up by the teams we play half of our games against?), it actually starts to mean something.

McShay had a lot of good things to say about the Niners draft.  He really liked the Balmer pick, the Rachal pick (even suggested that he could start this year, which seems a bit optimistic), and the Smith pick (he praised  his versatility).

My take?

I like the Balmer pick for a number of reasons.  He seems like he's got a great attitude (AND he's a UNC alum...Go Heels!), and a really good fit for the defensive scheme, especially if he can play to the standard he played in his senior year.  The story about his dad wearing a Niners cap during the draft was awesome, too.   Seriously, though, he seems like he'll be able to hold down that LDE spot for a good long while.  When he was on the board, this pick looks to have been a no-brainer, since they took all of 15 seconds to hand in the card.

I wasn't initially sold on the Rachal pick because it seemed like a reach, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense; if you look at who was on the board as far as O-Line talent, he was the only genuine 2nd-round talent that was there.  I'd rather have Rachal than Mike Pollack and John Greco--the next two O-Linemen taken.  In fact, I might rather have him than Duane Brown or Sam Baker, two 1st-rounders.  We should also consider that he's coming out as a junior because he wanted to help his mom out with a medical problem, so he's still a work in progress.

The Reggie Smith pick is OK, but this is one where  I wonder why they didn't go for a pass-rushing OLB, since there were a few guys who would've been available at that point.  It seems like they would've had the night to go over their assessments of  Crable, Avril, and Wheeler, since that's a real need area.  Perhaps they were thinking that they'd only get ANOTHER Parys Haralson/TBC-type player, and that Smith was too good a value to pass up, not least because he can play a couple of different positions.  I like him as a Nickel corner early on, since Shawntae doesn't seem to be developing beyond what we've seen, and it'll be good to have him for when Walt Harris is too old to keep running to the fountain of youth.  Also, the "he's a potential match-up for some of these big-bodied recievers" rationale does make some sense to me, since Boldin, Fitzgerald, and Holt aren't going anywhere.  Also, if he turns into any kind of return man, that's great.

One thing that had me wondering, though, was whether the Niners took a hard look at Lavelle Hawkins.  He was there in round 4, and while I think the Wallace pick makes sense for depth and for a long-term succession plan should Heitmann leave, I'm not as sure about it. 

SO...Anybody have info on Hawkins?  Your take on McShay's assessment?  On Smith vs. big-bodied receivers?  On why the Niners went for Smith over an OLB?

Hey it's "sourdoughsam69." I got my new sb nation 2.0 on gsom so i made it a warrior name(even though i like the niners more.) Anyways,I thought that we did a fine job drafting and we need to look ahead to the regular season. QB- ?, Grade- ? Well, we really do not know who is getting the starting good. i have always been a big Alex smith fan and i think e diserves it. If you breakdown smiths 3 healthy games to hills, they are not so far apart. 2-1 for smith, and 2-0(minnesota does not count). Smith had 1 TD-1 Int with about 500 yards. That's not good or bad. But factor a few things in. one, if you watched those game, you know battle fumbled on the 1 and VD dropped 2 tds against the rams. Now that's a 4-1 td-int ratio. Now we are talking. Hill, aroung 500 yards with a 5-1 ratio. Then look at what teams we were facing. An 8-8 cardinals, a healthy rams defense, an the pittsburgh steelers. Hill faced a prevent defense Minnesota Vikings, cincinatti, and tampa's back ups. Smith had the harder match ups. So if you really look at this you see two guys putting up similar stats with smith playing harder defenses. And when you look at 06, you can really see great potential in him, and top it of with a solid sart in 07, and 08 looks pretty good. Keep in mind that Hill was using a basic offense, tha is to simple against good teams. I think smith will win the job because of his football inteligence, and his atural talent he has when healthy. Just watch in 2008 smith will have, 3,578 yards, 18 TDs and 7 INTs. Why only decent stats? Well when you have Frank Gore who will have 2,231 yards, and 19 TDs, you don't have to pass to much.

My other favorite 49er blogger, Vince Chhabria at the Merc, headlined his latest post, "Boring is not necessarily bad."  I've found some numbers that support Vince's theory.  To summarize the findings, the teams that improved the most in the course of one off-season were also teams who had relatively boring drafts prior to their improved year.  Here are the details.

Since realignment in 2002, there are 10 teams that have made the leap from not-very-good to division winner in the course of one year.  Each of these teams won their division after posting a record at or below .500 in the preceding season.  These teams are:

'07 Packers
'06 Ravens and Saints
'05 Bears, Panthers, and Bengals
'04 Chargers and Falcons
'03 Chiefs and Rams

I looked at the first 4 rounds of each team's pre-breakout draft with an eye toward the "boringness" of the position selected.  Instead of trying to define boring, I'll just give you the key numbers, then follow up with some half-baked conclusions.

Defensive Backs: 11
Offensive LIneman: 8
Linebackers: 7
Wide Receivers: 7
Defensive Lineman: 6
Running Backs: 3
Quarterbacks: 0

Conclusion 1: These are boring drafts

No matter how you define boring, these were some boring draft classes.  The most striking figure is the number of offensive skill positions selected.  The guys who get the ball made up about 23% of the picks.  Normally, over 33% of the players taken in the first four rounds are offensive skill position players. 

Conclusion 2: Trenches over edges

The less flashy Defensive Tackles were selected over Defensive Ends 5-1.  If I had only considered the first 3 rounds of the draft, that number would have been 5-0.  The same is only sort of true on the offensive side of the ball, with Guards/Centers being chosen over Tackles 5-3.  The positions usually split 50-50 in the first 4 rounds of the draft.  This is surprising considering the importance (and salary) of Tackles compared to Guards and Centers.

Conclusion 3: Defense over offense

This is iffy because of the sample size, but the 10 teams I looked at did favor defense over offense, especially in the first two rounds where defensive players were chosen over offensive players 16-6.   This is notable because the league average is  50-50.

Caveats Galore

FIrst, a draft does not an off-season make.  All kinds of things happened to these teams in addition the draft that bumped them up, including earlier drafts, free agency, strength of schedule, new coaching staffs, etc.  Second, don't take this to mean that teams that won did so because of their conservative draft.  There are probably plenty of teams that drafted more conservatively and still either continued to loose or lost more.  A more likely explanation is that the teams that don't make flashy picks feel they are sufficiently strong in the skill positions and are bolstering the rest of the roster.  Finally, the data is based on a teeny, tiny sample of 10 teams over the course of 6 years.  I'm not Doug Farrar and don't pretend I am.  If you want to find flaws in the data, you will.

So what does this all mean for the 9ers?  I'll leave that as a question for anyone who took the time to read this post.

Here they are! The Draft Prediction Contest results! I know you've been clamoring, and I'm here to deliver.

As a group, I would say that we all did significantly better than I thought we would, just considering that none of us individually really know 1) many of these players or 2) the internal workings of most of these teams. It was a really tight race as I was scoring. That is, right up until the last entry on the page. The guy who got his predictions in last, also got his predictions in best. Which just proves the old agage right: He who predicts last, predicts best.

Anyway, without further ado:

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Can someone please explain why the Niners wont go after Jason Taylor... Its said that the dolphins would ask for a 3rd round pick or so for him.  We need someone to create havoc inside especially with BY gone and any pick besides a first rounder seems worth it for a former NFL defensive player of the year.

Just to prove my point even more, who would you rather have in a niners uni- Reggie Smith (our 3rd round choice from oklahoma) or Jason Taylor?

I know Taylor is on the older side but it doesnt mean he couldnt help out for a few years at least...

 

 

49ers TE Joe Jon Finley (Oklahoma)
49ers WR Cameron Colvin (Oregon)
49ers LB Ezra Butler (University of Nevada)
49ers WR Robert Jordan (University of California)
49ers LB Gary Guyton (Georgia Tech)

As a Raider fan I am bummed because Robert Jordan is JaMarcus Russell's cousin and I like his game.

This was a very deep draft and you can see by the talent level of the UDFAs that many teams are getting better as I write this.

 

Cheers,

Saint

Here are some guys that I think could help us on Day 2.  I would be shocked if Dan Conner fell to us, but he's not gone yet, so he's on the list.  I think our biggest needs are probably at linebacker after the first 2 picks (loved the Balmer pick, by the way--talk about a guy who brings flexibility to your D-line; I'm less wild about the Rachal pick, but I think he has the ability to contribute and the potential to develop into a solid player, particularly because he's a Junior with upside).  The guys are listed in the order they appear on newerascouting's site.  I've listed in brackets my own order of preference and reasoning after each of the guys listed.  Right now I'm bummed about the Chicago flip-flop, because I think some of the top-drawer guys here will be gone, but I'm confident that there's still value to be had.  We shall see.

Dan Connor, LB
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=25
(1-coulda/shoulda been a 1st-rounder, and would line up at the TED spot nicely; he's the sure thing)

Shawn Crable, DE/OLB
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=36
(2-seems to fit the pass-rushing OLB need really nicely, and if he could live up to the Julian Petersen-esque upside, that would be outstanding.  If Connor’s the sure thing, Crable’s the guy you pick on potential.)

Reggie Smith, S
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=90
(4-I know that safety isn't a huge need, but everything I've read about this guy says that he should be gone by now, so this is a value pick.  He'd be another guy who could even step in as a nickel corner and bring some good coverage ability to the safety spot--which we know is not Lewis' strong side.)

Earl Bennett, WR
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=106
(7-I like his experience coming out of Vandy and his potential in a Martz-ian offense.  He also seems to fit Martz’s draft metrics—though he’s a bit slow.  He’ll probably work the slot better than Caldwell will, so his contributions could come earlier than Caldwell’s would)

Andre Caldwell, WR
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=135
(6-this is another value-type pick.  I like his stretch-the-field speed and his route-running ability.)

Justin King, CB
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=123
(11-I’m surprised no team has become infatuated with his 4.31 combine time…and think I’ve become infatuated by it myself.  Having a DB with that kind of speed just seems like a good idea, even if he could play the Tin Man in the Wizard of Oz.  Deion couldn’t tackle either).

Xavier Adibi, OLB
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=67
(10-I'm surprised how little I've heard about this guy given the scouting report they've given him.  The biggest worry I have about him is his size and whether he's a fit for the 3-4.  He’d probably need a year before he was ready to play a big role, but the scouting report projects him as an inside-backer in a 3-4, so I’m willing to go with that.)

Erin Henderson, ILB
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=51
(9-Here's another guy who could step into the TED spot, though I think he'd only really be a contributor next year, after he’s gone through the Singletary School of Linebacking.  I like his potential, and he’d be higher on this list if it weren’t for his recognition issues and his injury history.)

Dajuan Morgan, S
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=136
(7-This is another guy who could give some flexibility to the defensive backfield.  He looks like a guy with good physical tools

Cliff Avril, DE
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=148
(3-I like the look of this guy at the pass-rushing OLB slot, too--love the 4.5 speed and the Purdue pedigree.  In fact, I wonder why they have this guy so far down the list)

Ali Highsmith, LB
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=46
(12-This guy is the anti-Justin King.  Tons of heart and smarts, but no brains.  The disconnect between the film and the combine numbers might play in this guy’s favor; it just seems like he was too highly rated before the combine to be so far down draft boards after it.  If he could learn to shed blocks and live up to his potential (newera compares him to Briggs), he could be a real steal…so maybe we could pick him up in round 4?)

Carl Nicks, OT
http://www.newerascouting.com/profiler/viewprofile.php?id=88
(5-He seems like a guy that has dropped because of character concerns, which I don’t think are THAT big, especially after Matt B’s interview this past week.  He’d be higher on this list if Rachal hadn’t been picked)

It looks like you'll be poised to add a receiver with the second pick.

 

With the Raiders being "Light" of draft picks, i have to live vicariously through local players and other teams.

 

You are guaranteed to get a real stud with your next pick. I am guessing it will be Hardy.

 

Desean Jackson would be the best fit for your system, but i think that he will be gone before you pick again.

 

Cheers,

 

Raider Nation

Here are my choices for who the 49ers should draft (if of course, they are available).

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Editor's Note 2:05am: The updated first round order is in the entry body of this so it doesn't take up too much space on the front page.  Click on comments to see the updated draft order.

The 2008 NFL Draft is 10 days away and now seems as good a time as any to get the Draft Prediction Contest up and running.  I'm creating this as a diary I'll promote to the front page for today.  Then I'll move it back to the diaries so it stays up top as the thread for entering predictions.

It certainly won't be easy to get all of them accurate so we've developed some rules that should make things a little more interesting.  The specific point totals aren't final, but here's what we're looking at, along with an example to make it clear:

1. For every correct player picked in the exact spot, you get 2 points - Pretty straight forward - You say the Bills take DeSean Jackson and they do, you get 2 points.
2. If you predict the correct position taken, you get 1 point - You say the 49ers will take Gosder Cherilus (OT, BC) and they take Jeff Otah (OT, Pitt), you get 1 point.
3. If you predict offense or defense correct, you get 1/2 point - You say the Texans will select a running back and they take an offensive lineman, you'll get 1/2 point.
4. If a team trades out of the first round completely, everyone loses out on the pick.
5.  Obviously, you'll be predicting all 31 first round picks.

Now, if you make your predictions today and then next week decide you want to make a change, here's the process.  You'll make your prediction in this specific thread.  If you want to make a change, just reply to your specific comment with the changes.  Do NOT add a new comment at the bottom as that will clutter things up.

This is kind of a work in progress, so if anybody has suggestions for improving this I'm all ears.  Additionally, our boy HowTheyScored will be helping to keep score so everything should be on the up-and-up.  Best of luck to all.  For now the winner gets a front page post, but I'm trying to come up with something better.  Keep your fingers crossed.

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