Vernon Davis was a guest on ESPN's Pardon the Interruption today. It was a pretty good interview and I recommend downloading the podcast if you missed the show. Very little was said about the handshake of doom, instead the focus was on the changes brought by Harbaugh to the San Francisco 49ers.

As best as I can here's a transcript (very rough) of what went on during the show.

Q. What was your reaction when Jim Harbaugh was announced as the new head coach of the 49ers?
A. (raises hands in the air like it's a touchdown) Yes!!!!

Q. Were you at all nervous about a rah, rah coach coming to the pros?
A. A little. We're men in the NFL and it's different, but all you have to do is look at the record and see that he's been effective.

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Welcome back for Part 2 of my interview with Bill Barnwell, Managing Editor of Football Outsiders (FO). Just to recap Part 1, Bill offered up the following 49er-related thoughts:

1. FO's 6.1-win projection for the 49ers this season resulted from simulating the 2010 NFL season 10,000 times.
2. Statistically speaking, there's no clear-cut favorite in the NFC West this season.
3. The 49ers rely on statistical analysis more heavily than the average NFL franchise.
4. In addition to the Alex-Smith-won't-be-in-the-shotgun-as-much reason that FO cites in their book, 2 other reasons for their prediction of an underwhelming Niner offense this season are that the rookie OLs probably won't provide immediate help, and that Smith probably won't face the easiest QB schedule in the league for the 2nd year in a row.
5. With respect to Dashon Goldson and Ahmad Brooks, it's business, not personal. The reason why both are unlikely to duplicate their superb 2009 seasons is because very few players at their positions ever have duplicated that level of production.
6. The reason why FO repeatedly downplays the 49ers' playoff chances is because, during the 6 years of FOA's existence, the 49ers have been consistently bad, and therefore, haven't given FO a statistical reason to project otherwise. In other words, they do not hate the 49ers...seriously!

He also made the following points on topics generally related to FO:

1. Because of human nature, it's baked into the cake that nearly every NFL fanbase will think FO underestimated their team in the yearly projections; and oftentimes the fans were right.
2. Just because DVOA said Pierre Thomas was the best RB in the league last season, it doesn't mean he's actually better than Adrian Peterson.
3. Don't pay too much attention to Receiving DVOA for RBs.
4. FO incorporates constructive, analysis-oriented criticism into their work; so much so that it's frequently the case that a reader ends up becoming an author on their site or in FOA.

Today, I'm posting Bill's answers to the other 10 questions I asked him, 5 of which were inspired by questions some of you submitted in response to my call for questions. I say "inspired by" because, although I didn't ask them verbatim (for obvious editorial reasons), I did preserve the spirit of the inquiry. Which reminds me; thanks again to everyone who helped me out by submitting questions. And because I won't be adding any commentary after the end of the interview transcript, let me also thank Bill one more time for giving Niners Nation the opportunity to interview him, and for bearing with my verbosity. If you're interested in reading more interviews with the FO people, here's a page providing links for all of their interviews with the various blogs here on SB nation.

Oh, and finally, if you're interested in football statistics or simply want a really good preview of the upcoming NFL season, go buy Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 (here for .pdf, here for print). I highly recommend it...and, no, I wasn't paid to say that.

After the jump, Bill identifies what would complete him, and then identifies it again, and then identifies it again. He also expresses amazement in response to the revelation that FO's win projections are ONLY about 5 times less accurate than stat-based baseball projections, addresses the issue of FO-based gambling, and answers a few of your questions...

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Last year, Fooch interviewed Managing Editor of Football Outsiders (FO), Bill Barnwell, as part of their media blitz in support of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009. That interview will long be remembered for Fooch making the statistical case that the Nolan-era 49ers were well-coached, and Bill (understandably) not playing along. Obviously, someone with better stat chops -- which, incidentally, I ate just yesterday for dinner -- needed to take over the FO interview responsibilities. In the interest of site credibility, Fooch recused himself from the 2010 interview, and bestowed that responsibility on yours truly. Well, Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 is now available for purchase, so it's time for me to fulfill my duty.

OK, so maybe I did the interview only because Fooch has been holed up in a bunker somewhere the past 2 weeks while studying for a test I'm told is a prerequisite for joining the Knights Templar. Fair enough. If Fooch wants to be in Dan Brown's next book, more power to him. I still like my version of history better, though.

So how's this year's interview different from last year's? Well, in true "Danny's posts are too long" style, I hyper-evolved it from a 5-question amoeba into a 20-question T-Rex, and will be posting Bill's answers in 2 parts rather than 1. Part 1 has landed in front of you right now, and Part 2 will be descending into this blogspace tomorrow. The plan here is to let the questions and answers speak for themselves, so I won't be adding any additional commentary to the posts except for one after-the-fact edit and the brief -- yeah right! -- introductory comment I'm about to give. Here goes...

After the jump, my introductory comment and Part 1 of the interview, whererin Bill (a) somehow finds a way to marry the concepts "49ers front office" and "intelligent ways to spend money;" (b) tells us about the rarefied air Dashon Goldson was breathing last season; (c) provides bait for the Smith-haters; and (d) assures us that, yes, Adrian Peterson is indeed a better RB than Pierre Thomas, regardless of what DVOA says...

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Hey everyone. Part 3 of my (L)OL series will be up tomorrow. In the meantime, just wanted to let you know that Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders was kind enough to grant Niners Nation an interview in support of the print release of Football Outsiders Almanac 2010. I have the good fortune of asking the questions. However, although I did apply to undergrad as a Journalism major, I immediately switched to Psychology during my first semester. In other words, I'm not a journalist. Therefore, I'm opening up the floor to you guys for some questions I can ask him.

Ideally, you've read the 49ers chapter in FOA 2010. A little less than ideal would be if you've read Fooch's recent posts discussing various Niner-related topics that were raised in FOA 2010 (e.g., here, here, and here). And even if you've done neither of the above, you're still welcome to offer up questions for reasons related to things like

• I don't believe in statistical analysis for the NFL.
• I think Football Outsiders is selling snake oil.
• I like what Football Outsiders does, but it seems like I need a PhD in statistics to understand DVOA.
• I lost a lot of money using Football Outsiders' game picks in 2009, and I demand reimbursement.
• I'm a big fan of Football Outsiders.
• I think Kory Sheets was our future, and am looking for statistical validation of my thoughts.

Post any questions you might have in the comments section by 8 pm EST tonight. I'll sift through them and single out a handful to include in the interview (Hint: "Was Kory Sheets our future?" will probably not make the cut). I'll be posting Bill's answers to our questions sometime next week. So, fire away!

So about a week ago I was contacted by some folks representing Jerry Rice for setting up an interview for the various sites I write for. Needless to say I was ecstatic. As some of you may know I write for two other sites but I'm getting this up here first in a more personal matter with you folks here at Niners Nation. (Personal meaning that I actually know and talk to some of you.) I'll be posting the full interview here but my full experience (ie my more professional post) will likely be included in the Nuggets tomorrow when I get the other article up on the other site I write for.

Basically, Rice is working with Gillette and the NFL to support their Locker Room Giveaway program. Fans can log into NFL.com/LockerRoom and get peeks into designated locker rooms after the game to get a behind the scenes look and get a chance to win some pretty cool stuff. Rice describes it well in the interview and I'll leave it at that.

Needless to say as a huge fan of Jerry for years I was very, very nervous but I feel I did a pretty good job of interviewing him. He called me on my Skype number and I had about twelve minutes with him. I found him to be really laid back and also very, very humble. He didn't overthink or prepare his responses and spoke his mind, and had a lot of admirable things to say about the Hall of Fame and the records he holds.

Still, I think the promotion he's working with is pretty cool and I'm very fortunate to be able to represent the three sites I write for in some capacity and that I was able to interview him. After the jump, I'll post the interview in text form for all of you here. I have the audio but I'm going to cut that up a little more before I do anything with it, considering this interview was intended for write-up purposes.

Enjoy, folks!

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With all due respect to Jed York, I think our interview with him as been surpassed on the awesomeness scale.  Yes indeed, I had the amazing opportunity to conduct a phone interview our Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young yesterday.  How did this come about?  Well, it was thanks to the NFL Hall of Fame and Edelman Sports & Entertainment Marketing.  Steve Young has teamed up with the Hall of Fame on a program called Van Heusen Fan's Choice.  In a general sense, the Hall of Fame is asking fans who they think should be in the Hall of Fame.  This program allows fans to take part in a variety of activities:

• Campaign for their favorite players
• Interact and debate with Hall of Famers, experts and fans from around the country
• Contribute their own analysis and commentary
• Post video messages in support of their favorite players
• View statistics and information for all 130+ candidates
• Nominate and vote for the Fan’s Choice Class of 2010
• See how their picks compare to the Board of Selectors
• Participate in daily polls and trivia

Anyways, I was able to use this interview to get Young's thoughts on some potential 49er Hall of Famers, along with some other 49er-specific questions.  I had 15 minutes with Young but I'll be honest, when I ran out of questions at the 8 or 9 minute mark, I was actually too nervous to quickly come up with questions off the top of my head.  Yea, this was just a little bit nerve-wracking.  As was mentioned yesterday, I had to fight to avoid a Chris Farley/Paul McCartney moment.  To steal from shlecko:

"You remember when you played the Packers in that playoff game…and you almost tripped before throwing that game-winning touchdown…? Remember?"

"Yes."

"That was awesome."

After the jump, my interview with 49ers QB Steve Young (and yes I had to ask him about his time in law school!

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If you were gone over the holiday weekend, check out part 1 of this interview down below or right here.  Here's part 2 of the interview with Doug Farrar.  In it he discusses the 49ers wide receiver questions, the developing 49ers-Seahawks rivalry and  thoughts on the backup running back situation in San Francisco.

NN: Does FO think the 49ers have done enough at WR this offseason to provide Alex Smith with enough weapons? (Fooch)

DF: Before I answer, I should take a moment to dispel the myth that "FO thinks this" or "FO thinks that" - one of our precepts is that we do not share a "hive mind". We can and do disagree about things. But I think it's safe to assume that we'd all agree on the 49ers' need to improve their receiver corps.

Certainly the upgrades appear great on the surface - Jackson is a quality receiver if he can stay healthy and avoid dropping too many footballs, Lelie has a lot of talent (though he hasn't lived up to it yet), and third-round pick Jason Hill could fit very nicely in San Francisco's vertical offense with his speed. Put Arnaz Battle in the mix, take Antonio Bryant and his drama out, and it's easy to believe that Alex Smith will finally have some decent targets. And in Smith's case, I think that's true. When you profess to run a vertical offense and your halfback is your leading receiver ... that's a problem. Smith will need one of those receivers to step up and make a top 20 appearance in the DPAR rankings (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement, which is how we rank wide receivers), and I'm not sure who it will be. Jackson's his best bet.

NN: 49ers fans have been pumped up about beating Seattle twice last year.  Do Seattle fans view this as a growing rivalry and do they fear the 49ers? (coachAJ)

DF: I think so, yes. In most minds the 49ers have replaced the Rams as Seattle's primary challenger for division supremacy. With all their upgrades through the offseason, San Francisco might actually have more raw talent than the Seahawks. Seattle's advantage is that most of their team's talent has worked together longer, and that the jury's still out on Alex Smith. But the 49ers have a better backfield, a better run-blocking offensive line, and a better secondary if Nate Clements lives up to his contract and Walt Harris' 2006 season wasn't a fluke. They've upgraded their receivers, they finally have the pieces in place to run Mike Nolan's preferred 3-4 defense (a defense that has always frustrated the Seahawks) and the coaching staff and front office have proven to be very effective. Now, 49ers fans just have to hope that all that new talent can come together this year.  

NN: General thoughts on the state of the NFC West?  Does Arizona finally put it together with all that offensive talent?  What do you think the odds are of the NFC West producing both wild card teams? (sfgfan)

DF: While Ken Whisenhunt is an enormous upgrade over Dennis Green, I'm not buying what the Cardinals are selling just yet. This team still hasn't proven to me that they know the difference between a good team on paper and a good team on the field, and that's why I never believed they'd win the division through the extremely positive predictions that marked the Green era. I think they're the same year away that the 49ers were last year.

I don't think the Rams have anywhere near the defense required to make the playoffs. Their secondary is a horror movie. In addition, several factors that would lead to hope for offensive improvement - third-down conversion rate, red zone success and offensive line success despite severe roster turnover - have already maxed out.

Someone's going to win the NFC West, and they may do so by default, but I wouldn't be surprised if that division winner is the only postseason entrant from the division. Seattle and San Francisco are the potentially good teams; I don't believe the NFC West has any potentially great ones this year.

NN: You mentioned to me that FO loves Frank Gore.  I'm curious about FO's thoughts on Michael Robinson and Thomas Clayton.  Maurice Hicks is better in special teams and it looks like FO's rankings had the 49ers rushing attack ranked 15th overall.  Do you see either Robinson or Clayton stepping up as a legit backup to Gore?  Would the team be wise to better develop a backup so they can spell Gore a little bit more?

DF: Well, the ranking of 15th in rushing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, explained here) despite Gore having broken the team record for rushing yards has a lot to do with his having racked up huge yardage against weak run defenses (including the Marcus Tubbs-less version of the Seahawks), and the fact that Gore himself was responsible for so much of the production. I like Hicks when I see him, though his negative DPAR last year doesn't exactly support my selective scouting report. Robinson has potential, he's a good athlete, and he's running behind an effective line (at least, he was last year), so that could work out decently down the road.

But Gore's the workhorse - of that, there's no doubt, and I don't see a two-back rotation anytime soon. The 49ers seem to be ahead of the curve when it comes to catch/carry ratio - Gore's 61 catches in 2006 represented 16.3 percent of his total workload, which is optimal. Does he have a "legit" backup right now? I don't know. I think the team is in big trouble if he doesn't stay healthy. In Pro Football Prospectus 2007, we project a great season for Gore.

I'll tell you who FO REALLY likes - blocking fullback Moran Norris. Very underrated player, and San Francisco was wise to sign him to a new three-year contract. Frank Gore paid Norris' way to Hawaii when Gore went to the Pro Bowl, which should tell you something. I asked Mike Nolan about Norris at the Scouting Combine, and it's easy to see his affection for the player.

So thanks again to Doug Farrar from Football Outsiders for taking the time to answer some of our questions.  I've always been a fan of the Outsiders and hopefully we can develop a solid relationship with Doug for further analysis in the future.

After some brief discussions I decided to put together an interview with Doug Farrar, lead writer of the Seahawks scout.com website and the NFC West man for Football Outsiders.  He was gracious enough to take time to answer some questions about the 49ers, Seahawks and the NFC West in general.  Here's part 1 of that interview.

NN: The question on everyone's mind, how come the Seahawks seemed to have no problems dealing Darrell Jackson within the division, particularly to an up-and-coming team in the division? (wjackalope)

DF: Several factors led to Seattle's devaluation and dismissal of Jackson. First, there was the six-year, $25 million contract he signed in March of 2004. When the contract was signed, former team president Bob Whitsitt apparently promised Jackson and his representation that as time went along, the salary structure would be revisited so that it would be in line with other elite receivers. This was a verbal agreement - never put in writing. When Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison signed their more lucrative contracts with the Eagles and Colts soon after Jackson's, that was step one in the unraveling.

Tim Ruskell replaced Whitsitt before the 2005 season, and when it came time for either Jackson or his agent to collect on Whitsitt's promise, they found that the new administration had no intention of honoring that promise without a written agreement. Jackson began skipping passing camps and minicamps, and though he never held out of training camp, he made his dissatisfaction very clear. In the Seahawks' 2005 season, Jackson missed nine games with a knee injury. Though he came through with strong performances in the postseason, the team's excellence in his absence (they won every one of the nine consecutive games he missed) proved that he was not as indispensable as he thought.

Jackson's dissatisfaction continued though the 2006 preseason, and Ruskell made a very definite statement by trading the team's 2007 first-round pick to the Patriots for Deion Branch in September. The Seahawks then signed Branch to a six-year, $39 million contract - certainly what Jackson would have been happy with. But by this point, I think the relationship between the Seahawks and Jackson's side had been polluted beyond all reason. This probably could have been sorted out with a few workout bonuses, but the Seahawks weren't going to bend, and I think it caused them to overvalue Branch. Keep in mind that I'm in the minority when it comes to that opinion - I just don't believe that wide receiver is a first-round position, no matter how good the player is, unless you're pretty sure you're getting a future Hall of Famer.

Ruskell's contention that the San Francisco deal was the best available says a lot about how much they wanted Jackson gone. If you really want to get full value from a player, you wait until after training camp. This is when injuries happen, rosters shake out, and desperation makes other personnel guys do funny things. When you do a draft-day deal for a fourth-round pick, you just want the guy off your team. As to whether they'll regret letting him go and having to face him twice a year, I tend to think they will. It's my belief that the trade was more about drawing a line in the sand than anything else. It also took a bit of San Francisco's need at the position away, and that's not something you really want to do with the team that most people consider to be your primary division challenger.

NN: Are you particularly worried about Alexander's foot issues, and do the Seahawks think Maurice Morris is a capable enough backup if Alexander has further injury issues? (sfgfan)

DF: My concern about Alexander's foot is less than my overall concern about the system he's in, the players in front of him, and his lack of ability to catch the football. Last issue first: Football Outsiders, led by Aaron Schatz's research three years ago, has written extensively about the 370-carry barrier, and the workload indicator it has proven to be. That research has shown that with very few exceptions (pretty much Eric Dickerson, and that's it), backs who carry the call 370 times or more in a season will show a severe decline in productivity from then on, and that said decline will almost always be injury-related. On the other hand, backs who have 370 or more touches (carries and catches) tend to not only survive, but thrive. I wrote an article in the upcoming Rotoworld fantasy football annual which details this, and I identify 85 percent carries as the rough breaking point. Of course, Alexander carried the ball 370 times in 2005, and we all know how his 2006 season fell apart.

What we don't know is how the Seahawks are going to fix this. The team was unable to seriously upgrade an offensive line that was one of the NFL's worst in terms of Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate. Seattle led the league in four-receiver sets, and in formations without a tight end, and I would think they'll do so again this season. So, there's less of a blocking presence from the tight end position. Mack Strong pretty much fell off the face of the earth as a blocker last season, leading all non-linemen in blown blocks. Alexander's catches have decreased every year since 2002, and judging from his form when he does catch the ball, he doesn't seem to find improvement in this area to be very interesting.

While I think that Alexander can have a few more productive years, the window is closing. He's not someone who's going to survive another season with that many carries, and he doesn't have the kind of line that will allow him five-plus yards per carry - at least not right now. What should happen is that Morris, or someone else, should take some of the reps even when Alexander's healthy. Whether that's Morris, who is a versatile player but too small to handle a full season's workload (think Warrick Dunn), or fullback Leonard Weaver, is an interesting topic. Should Shaun be the "thunder" or the "lightning" in that equation? I don't know, but let's face facts - he's going to be 30 in August, and running backs generally don't age well.

NN: I was curious how you got involved with Football Outsiders? (Fooch)

Well, I have been writing for Seahawks.NET for four years, and Scout.com for three, and I began exchanging E-mails with FO founder Aaron Schatz about two years ago. Interestingly, this started when I noticed that a writer for an official team site (I won't mention which one) had appropriated graphics and text from a Football Outsiders article about the Cover 2 defense without attribution, and called it his own. I let Aaron know about it, and our correspondence just went from there. This is ironic in the wake of Gil Brandt's recent "appropriation" of FO data, detailed here. Beyond that, I found the site fascinating, as I've been reading Bill James since I was a kid and I always loved sabermetrics.

Aaron seemed to be the one who was bringing forth new ideas about football that made sense and got people thinking about the game in different ways. We exchanged ideas, bounced some stuff off each other during Seattle's Super Bowl season, and he asked me to write the NFC West preseason reports for the site while the staff was working on the Pro Football Prospectus 2006 book. In June of 2006, I was asked to join the staff, and I happily accepted. This led to more FO work, a weekly column for FOXSports.com called "Manic Monday", and my writing all the NFC West content for Pro Football Prospectus 2007. This book comes out in July (there's the plug!), and it should be a good one.

It's certainly the most challenging writing I do - being a part of that staff is a responsibility I don't take lightly.

I'll get the second part of the interview up later tomorrow or early Monday.  In it, Doug discusses the NFC West as a whole, the growing rivalry between Seattle and San Francisco, and some of the 49ers strengths and questions going into 2007.