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Niners Nation Interview: Doug Farrar, Football Outsiders/Seahawks.net - PART 2

If you were gone over the holiday weekend, check out part 1 of this interview down below or right here.  Here's part 2 of the interview with Doug Farrar.  In it he discusses the 49ers wide receiver questions, the developing 49ers-Seahawks rivalry and  thoughts on the backup running back situation in San Francisco.

NN: Does FO think the 49ers have done enough at WR this offseason to provide Alex Smith with enough weapons? (Fooch)

DF: Before I answer, I should take a moment to dispel the myth that "FO thinks this" or "FO thinks that" - one of our precepts is that we do not share a "hive mind". We can and do disagree about things. But I think it's safe to assume that we'd all agree on the 49ers' need to improve their receiver corps.

Certainly the upgrades appear great on the surface - Jackson is a quality receiver if he can stay healthy and avoid dropping too many footballs, Lelie has a lot of talent (though he hasn't lived up to it yet), and third-round pick Jason Hill could fit very nicely in San Francisco's vertical offense with his speed. Put Arnaz Battle in the mix, take Antonio Bryant and his drama out, and it's easy to believe that Alex Smith will finally have some decent targets. And in Smith's case, I think that's true. When you profess to run a vertical offense and your halfback is your leading receiver ... that's a problem. Smith will need one of those receivers to step up and make a top 20 appearance in the DPAR rankings (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement, which is how we rank wide receivers), and I'm not sure who it will be. Jackson's his best bet.

NN: 49ers fans have been pumped up about beating Seattle twice last year.  Do Seattle fans view this as a growing rivalry and do they fear the 49ers? (coachAJ)

DF: I think so, yes. In most minds the 49ers have replaced the Rams as Seattle's primary challenger for division supremacy. With all their upgrades through the offseason, San Francisco might actually have more raw talent than the Seahawks. Seattle's advantage is that most of their team's talent has worked together longer, and that the jury's still out on Alex Smith. But the 49ers have a better backfield, a better run-blocking offensive line, and a better secondary if Nate Clements lives up to his contract and Walt Harris' 2006 season wasn't a fluke. They've upgraded their receivers, they finally have the pieces in place to run Mike Nolan's preferred 3-4 defense (a defense that has always frustrated the Seahawks) and the coaching staff and front office have proven to be very effective. Now, 49ers fans just have to hope that all that new talent can come together this year.  

NN: General thoughts on the state of the NFC West?  Does Arizona finally put it together with all that offensive talent?  What do you think the odds are of the NFC West producing both wild card teams? (sfgfan)

DF: While Ken Whisenhunt is an enormous upgrade over Dennis Green, I'm not buying what the Cardinals are selling just yet. This team still hasn't proven to me that they know the difference between a good team on paper and a good team on the field, and that's why I never believed they'd win the division through the extremely positive predictions that marked the Green era. I think they're the same year away that the 49ers were last year.

I don't think the Rams have anywhere near the defense required to make the playoffs. Their secondary is a horror movie. In addition, several factors that would lead to hope for offensive improvement - third-down conversion rate, red zone success and offensive line success despite severe roster turnover - have already maxed out.

Someone's going to win the NFC West, and they may do so by default, but I wouldn't be surprised if that division winner is the only postseason entrant from the division. Seattle and San Francisco are the potentially good teams; I don't believe the NFC West has any potentially great ones this year.

NN: You mentioned to me that FO loves Frank Gore.  I'm curious about FO's thoughts on Michael Robinson and Thomas Clayton.  Maurice Hicks is better in special teams and it looks like FO's rankings had the 49ers rushing attack ranked 15th overall.  Do you see either Robinson or Clayton stepping up as a legit backup to Gore?  Would the team be wise to better develop a backup so they can spell Gore a little bit more?

DF: Well, the ranking of 15th in rushing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, explained here) despite Gore having broken the team record for rushing yards has a lot to do with his having racked up huge yardage against weak run defenses (including the Marcus Tubbs-less version of the Seahawks), and the fact that Gore himself was responsible for so much of the production. I like Hicks when I see him, though his negative DPAR last year doesn't exactly support my selective scouting report. Robinson has potential, he's a good athlete, and he's running behind an effective line (at least, he was last year), so that could work out decently down the road.

But Gore's the workhorse - of that, there's no doubt, and I don't see a two-back rotation anytime soon. The 49ers seem to be ahead of the curve when it comes to catch/carry ratio - Gore's 61 catches in 2006 represented 16.3 percent of his total workload, which is optimal. Does he have a "legit" backup right now? I don't know. I think the team is in big trouble if he doesn't stay healthy. In Pro Football Prospectus 2007, we project a great season for Gore.

I'll tell you who FO REALLY likes - blocking fullback Moran Norris. Very underrated player, and San Francisco was wise to sign him to a new three-year contract. Frank Gore paid Norris' way to Hawaii when Gore went to the Pro Bowl, which should tell you something. I asked Mike Nolan about Norris at the Scouting Combine, and it's easy to see his affection for the player.

So thanks again to Doug Farrar from Football Outsiders for taking the time to answer some of our questions.  I've always been a fan of the Outsiders and hopefully we can develop a solid relationship with Doug for further analysis in the future.

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Niners Nation Interview: Doug Farrar, Football Outsiders/Seahawks.net

After some brief discussions I decided to put together an interview with Doug Farrar, lead writer of the Seahawks scout.com website and the NFC West man for Football Outsiders.  He was gracious enough to take time to answer some questions about the 49ers, Seahawks and the NFC West in general.  Here's part 1 of that interview.

NN: The question on everyone's mind, how come the Seahawks seemed to have no problems dealing Darrell Jackson within the division, particularly to an up-and-coming team in the division? (wjackalope)

DF: Several factors led to Seattle's devaluation and dismissal of Jackson. First, there was the six-year, $25 million contract he signed in March of 2004. When the contract was signed, former team president Bob Whitsitt apparently promised Jackson and his representation that as time went along, the salary structure would be revisited so that it would be in line with other elite receivers. This was a verbal agreement - never put in writing. When Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison signed their more lucrative contracts with the Eagles and Colts soon after Jackson's, that was step one in the unraveling.

Tim Ruskell replaced Whitsitt before the 2005 season, and when it came time for either Jackson or his agent to collect on Whitsitt's promise, they found that the new administration had no intention of honoring that promise without a written agreement. Jackson began skipping passing camps and minicamps, and though he never held out of training camp, he made his dissatisfaction very clear. In the Seahawks' 2005 season, Jackson missed nine games with a knee injury. Though he came through with strong performances in the postseason, the team's excellence in his absence (they won every one of the nine consecutive games he missed) proved that he was not as indispensable as he thought.

Jackson's dissatisfaction continued though the 2006 preseason, and Ruskell made a very definite statement by trading the team's 2007 first-round pick to the Patriots for Deion Branch in September. The Seahawks then signed Branch to a six-year, $39 million contract - certainly what Jackson would have been happy with. But by this point, I think the relationship between the Seahawks and Jackson's side had been polluted beyond all reason. This probably could have been sorted out with a few workout bonuses, but the Seahawks weren't going to bend, and I think it caused them to overvalue Branch. Keep in mind that I'm in the minority when it comes to that opinion - I just don't believe that wide receiver is a first-round position, no matter how good the player is, unless you're pretty sure you're getting a future Hall of Famer.

Ruskell's contention that the San Francisco deal was the best available says a lot about how much they wanted Jackson gone. If you really want to get full value from a player, you wait until after training camp. This is when injuries happen, rosters shake out, and desperation makes other personnel guys do funny things. When you do a draft-day deal for a fourth-round pick, you just want the guy off your team. As to whether they'll regret letting him go and having to face him twice a year, I tend to think they will. It's my belief that the trade was more about drawing a line in the sand than anything else. It also took a bit of San Francisco's need at the position away, and that's not something you really want to do with the team that most people consider to be your primary division challenger.

NN: Are you particularly worried about Alexander's foot issues, and do the Seahawks think Maurice Morris is a capable enough backup if Alexander has further injury issues? (sfgfan)

DF: My concern about Alexander's foot is less than my overall concern about the system he's in, the players in front of him, and his lack of ability to catch the football. Last issue first: Football Outsiders, led by Aaron Schatz's research three years ago, has written extensively about the 370-carry barrier, and the workload indicator it has proven to be. That research has shown that with very few exceptions (pretty much Eric Dickerson, and that's it), backs who carry the call 370 times or more in a season will show a severe decline in productivity from then on, and that said decline will almost always be injury-related. On the other hand, backs who have 370 or more touches (carries and catches) tend to not only survive, but thrive. I wrote an article in the upcoming Rotoworld fantasy football annual which details this, and I identify 85 percent carries as the rough breaking point. Of course, Alexander carried the ball 370 times in 2005, and we all know how his 2006 season fell apart.

What we don't know is how the Seahawks are going to fix this. The team was unable to seriously upgrade an offensive line that was one of the NFL's worst in terms of Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate. Seattle led the league in four-receiver sets, and in formations without a tight end, and I would think they'll do so again this season. So, there's less of a blocking presence from the tight end position. Mack Strong pretty much fell off the face of the earth as a blocker last season, leading all non-linemen in blown blocks. Alexander's catches have decreased every year since 2002, and judging from his form when he does catch the ball, he doesn't seem to find improvement in this area to be very interesting.

While I think that Alexander can have a few more productive years, the window is closing. He's not someone who's going to survive another season with that many carries, and he doesn't have the kind of line that will allow him five-plus yards per carry - at least not right now. What should happen is that Morris, or someone else, should take some of the reps even when Alexander's healthy. Whether that's Morris, who is a versatile player but too small to handle a full season's workload (think Warrick Dunn), or fullback Leonard Weaver, is an interesting topic. Should Shaun be the "thunder" or the "lightning" in that equation? I don't know, but let's face facts - he's going to be 30 in August, and running backs generally don't age well.

NN: I was curious how you got involved with Football Outsiders? (Fooch)

Well, I have been writing for Seahawks.NET for four years, and Scout.com for three, and I began exchanging E-mails with FO founder Aaron Schatz about two years ago. Interestingly, this started when I noticed that a writer for an official team site (I won't mention which one) had appropriated graphics and text from a Football Outsiders article about the Cover 2 defense without attribution, and called it his own. I let Aaron know about it, and our correspondence just went from there. This is ironic in the wake of Gil Brandt's recent "appropriation" of FO data, detailed here. Beyond that, I found the site fascinating, as I've been reading Bill James since I was a kid and I always loved sabermetrics.

Aaron seemed to be the one who was bringing forth new ideas about football that made sense and got people thinking about the game in different ways. We exchanged ideas, bounced some stuff off each other during Seattle's Super Bowl season, and he asked me to write the NFC West preseason reports for the site while the staff was working on the Pro Football Prospectus 2006 book. In June of 2006, I was asked to join the staff, and I happily accepted. This led to more FO work, a weekly column for FOXSports.com called "Manic Monday", and my writing all the NFC West content for Pro Football Prospectus 2007. This book comes out in July (there's the plug!), and it should be a good one.

It's certainly the most challenging writing I do - being a part of that staff is a responsibility I don't take lightly.

I'll get the second part of the interview up later tomorrow or early Monday.  In it, Doug discusses the NFC West as a whole, the growing rivalry between Seattle and San Francisco, and some of the 49ers strengths and questions going into 2007.

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Football Outsider Interview

So I've been working on getting an interview with Doug Farrar over at Football Outsiders.  Doug covers the NFC West for the Outsiders and actually runs Seahawks.net (a part of the Scout.com network).

So I'm putting together some questions to email him in the next day or two and I wanted to open up the floor to any questions you guys might have about the 49ers or the NFC West in general.  

Post them here and I'll pass them along to Doug.

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SB Nation Podcast Debuts Today

[EDITOR'S UPDATE 5:30PM] - Well hopefully that wasn't too brutal for you guys. That was my first ever radio-related appearance and I think it went ok. I definitely look forward to it again in the future and I'll keep everyone updated as to when I'll be on again.

To follow Stampede Blue's lead, I am pleased to announce that SB Nation is debuting its first official podcast called The SB Nation Sports Report.  The Sports Report will be hosted by Big Blue Shoe over at Stampede Blue and Mile High Report's TheSportsGuru. SB Nation has decided to get the podcasting going using BlogTalkRadio.com, which allows listeners the ability to call-in or IM us live while we do the show. That means, like any other regular radio show, if you call-in with a question or comment, it will be addressed on-air and live. It's another way for you, the readers here and on other blogs, to interact with the various writers.  Mile High Report actually has a weekly show he's been doing with various guests.  If you go to his site you can check out a sample on the media player down the right column.

The premiere episode of The SB Nation Sports Report is this evening, at 8pm. If you go to the site, it is acting on prior to daylight savings time, so it will say 7eastern, 4pacific.  Remember, this Sunday is Daylight Savings Time and the show is actually 8 eastern/5 pacific. The guests on this evening's show will include yours truly from Niners Nation, Peter Bean of Burnt Orange Nation, and possibly SkinsPatrol from Hogs Haven. We'll talk NFL free agency, the Signature Pharmacy steroids scandal, and NCAA hoops.

I'll be adding a media player to Niners Nation at some point in the coming days that will allow you to listen to the show while logged in here.  For now though, head over to OUR SITE AT BLOG TALK RADIO to listen to the show this evening.  If you aren't able to call in, I'd love to hear what people have to say after the show.  If you miss the show, you can download thepodcast for free.  Either way, feel free to comment on what you like and don't like.

[EDITOR'S UPDATE 1:45pm] - Here's the planned schedule for the show tonight:

Me, Niners Nation: 5:10pm pacific/8:10pm eastern

Mike, Black Shoe Diaries (Penn State): 5:30pm pacific/8:30pm eastern

Pete Bean, Burnt Orange Nation (Texas Longhorns): 5:40pm pacific/8:40pm eastern

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Niners Nation visits with Matt Barrows, Sacramento Bee staff writer

Thanks to Blez over at Athletics Nation, I was able to get in touch with Matt Barrows, beat writer for the 49ers at the Sacramento Bee.  Matt was kind enough to take a few minutes to answer my questions about the team and look ahead to the team's offseason plans.  Before we get to the questions, here's a little background on Matt.  He graduated from the University of Virginia in 1995, and earned an advanced journalism degree from Northwestern University.  After working at a South Carolina daily in 1997, he moved to Sacramento to work for the Bee in 1999 and began covering the 49ers in 2003.  Feel free to check out his Mailbag over at SacBee.com.

NN: With the 49ers season complete, talk has turned to free agency and the draft.  The 49ers have a ton of cap room and there is quite a bit of talent available.  Is John York going to be willing to spend the big bucks it would take to get a Nate Clements, Lance Briggs or Justin Smith?

MB: Hi David. Yes, Dr. York has given Mike Nolan and Scot McCloughan carte blanche to get the players they need, especially for defense. Of the players you mentioned, Clements probably is at the top of the list. The 49ers considered trading for him during the season but the asking price was too high. There are some positions the 49ers would like to upgrade in free agency rather than the draft, and cornerback is one of them. The team's lack of depth at the position was exposed when Shawntae Spencer went down with an ankle injury this season. If they did get Clements, it'll be interesting to see who -- Spencer, Clements or Walt Harris -- are the top two guys at the position. It'll make training camp quite interesting. I think Briggs will be their No. 2 option at linebacker. Nolan definitely wants to run a 3-4 defense in 2007, and Baltimore LB Adalius Thomas is better suited for that configuration than Briggs, who, by the way, is from the Sacramento Area.

NN: It seems Gore has proven he can carry the load and stay healthy.  Do you think a long term deal gets done for Frank Gore before this upcoming season?  

MB: I do think Gore gets a long-term deal by the start of the season. The 49ers don't want the distraction in 2007 and neither does Gore. The folks in the 49ers' front office don't have any issue with Gore's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, who has a good track record of getting emerging players signed to extensions in the off-season.

NN: The WR talent in the draft seems pretty solid, while the WR free agent pool is relatively shallow.  Do you see the team taking a long hard look at a Dwayne Jarrett or Ted Ginn (if he comes out) with that first pick, or maybe waiting until a later round to find a potential big play threat?

MB: I do see them taking a long, hard look at a WR. The combine, of course, will help determine the draft order, but Jarrett seems like he's in striking distance with the No. 11 pick. I'm not sure what to think of Ginn. He'd give the team the speed to drive d-coordinators crazy, but his hands seem suspect and he doesn't look like much of a downfield blocker. I'm no Notre Dame fan by any means, but every time I watched the Irish this season, Jeff Samardjiza had a big game. At 6-5, 220-ish pounds, he also has the size Nolan likes.

NN: A quick follow-up question on Ginn: Do you think he could fill a Steve Smith (Carolina) roll with his speed at the NFL level?  It seems WRs take 2 or 3 years to really get established and in the meantime he could be a kick off and punt returner to make an impact.

MB: Steve Smith is a small guy, but he's very, very strong. I'm not sure Ted Ginn is built the same way. It seems to me he's more of a sprinter. The combine ought to tell us more about whether he can become an all-around receiver. The 49ers wouldn't draft Ginn in the first round if they thought he was one dimensional.

NN: With the plethora of picks at their disposal, do you see the 49ers potentially trading up in the first to get a Gaines Adams, who some are comparing to Julius Peppers, or Alan Branch to beef up the pass rush?

MB: Trading up is definitely a possibility, especially considering the 49ers' abundance of third- and fourth-round picks. If they fall in love with someone, say Branch, and feel he'd be gone by pick No. 9, they certainly could make like the Jeffersons and move on up....

NN: Do you think Singletary will get a crack at the defensive coordinator job or will they go for a more veteran coordinator like they did with Norv Turner?  Seems like D-Coordinator would be the next logical step for Singletary, although maybe he thinks he can land a head coaching job first.

MB: I don't think Singletary is in the running for defensive coordinator. Nolan wants experience at the position and Singletary, while big on motivation, is not and Xs and Os type of coach. Nolan liked former coordinator Billy Davis, but because Davis did not have much seasoning at the position, Nolan was hesitant to give him free reign. In fact, any observer at a 49ers practice the last two years would assume Nolan was the coordinator because he was far more vocal and active. One of Nolan's weaknesses in two years as head coach has been his game management (timeouts??) and that might be attributable to him being preoccupied with the defense. That wouldn't change if Singletary were coordinator.

NN: On a separate note, what are your thoughts on the stadium issues?  I'm sure the 49ers have some Sacramento season ticket holders, but since many residents would just be watching the games on TV, do the residents up there consider it a big deal, as long as the team stays in the Greater Bay Area, remains on TV and retains the San Francisco part of the name?  Or does being in San Francisco mean a lot more for you guys?

MB: Funny thing about the stadium issue -- the Sacramento area boasts the same number of season ticket holders (about 10 percent) as the City of San Francisco. As someone who commutes between Sac and the Bay Area quite a bit, I can tell you that the Santa Clara-to-Sac trip takes about two hours while the Candlestick-to-Sac trip takes about 1:20 ... if there's no traffic. But there's ALWAYS traffic, especially at Bay Bridge. And when you factor in the crawl out of the Monster Park lots, it's incredibly slow and aggravating. I'm willing to bet that if the new Santa Clara stadium is as transportation-friendly as city officials there say it will be, the overall commute to and from Sacramento will be decidedly shorter, time-wise, than it is now to Monster Park. And when you consider that I actually live in Santa Clara, you kind of see where my feelings lie....

NN: There have been some features discussing Jeremy Newberry's return.  Do you think Newberry will be able to successfully come back from all the injuries or has the time come for him to hang up his cleats?

MB: Jeremy Newberry is one of the most competitive athletes out there. Right now his knees aren't bothering him at all, and he figures he ought to give it one more shot. I think it would bother him for the rest of his life if he didn't try. Now whether his knees hold up is another question. History says that they probably will not.

NN: Finally, does Bryant Young make it back for one more year?  His leadership on a potentially improving defense would hopefully allow for a smooth transition to the talent they bring in this off-season.

MB: I, for one, would be surprised if BY does not return for another season. Not only did he play well at the end of the season -- a good barometer for older players -- he played well at the end of games at the end of the season. The only way he doesn't come back is if he realizes that his body is in very good shape now and decides to quit while he is ahead. But I think he's like Newberry -- too competitive to keep away when he knows he can still contribute.

Thanks to Matt for his time and information.  He was busy traveling on the East Coast and we were able to conduct this interview via email.  If you like the information you see, maybe we can turn this into a 3 or 4 times a year post.  In the mean time, remember to check out Matt's mailbag at Sacbee.com.

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