Our previous episode of Know Thy Enemy covered the New York Giants.  In sticking with the New York teams, we may have a reason to further develop those rivalries.  It's old news, but back in early 2007, Der Kommissar Roger Goodell announced that the NFL's G3 program (financial loans for new stadiums) had run dry.  The reason?  The Jets and Giants are building a joint stadium that is costing just north of a billion dollars.  Most teams get $150 million, but this project saw 50% of it covered with G3 loans because they're a top 5 media market.  One more reason to root against the Giants and Jets, as if any more were necessary.

The Jets are currently unrepresented at SB Nation, so we'll just have to talk amongst ourselves.  In previous Know Thy Enemy's, opposing team message boards have occasionally picked them up.  I've thrown out some of the comments before so maybe a Jets message board will find some amusement from our little exercise.

Overview
After a rousing start to the Eric Mangini era in 2006 (10-6 and a playoff appearance), the Jets went in the crapper last season.  They finished 4-12 and nothing seemed to go right.  Chad Pennington has turned into a very injury-prone QB and so the Jets were hoping Kellen Clemens would step up and taking the starting job.  Clemens was less than impressive and once again, Clemens and Pennington will battle in training camp for the right to lead this ship.

Thomas Jones was brought in to bolster the running game and while he finished with another 1,000 yard season, he seemed to lack consistency and didn't have much of a nose for the end zone.  Throw in the 30th ranked defense against the run, and this was just one big mess.

Additions
The Jets welcome two new additions to their offensive line, all-world guard Alan Faneca and former center Damien Woody, who looks to be playing right tackle.  These additions to the offensive line should help Thomas Jones gain a little consistency, and if Chad Pennington wins the starting job, maybe they'll keep him from getting hurt too much.

The addition of the behemoth Kris Jenkins at nose tackle definitely can't hurt their efforts against the run.  He's had issues with his weight, but if he can keep things reasonable, he could be a big help to their defense.  And of course there's the freak, Vernon Gholston.  Their #4 overall pick is an athletic and physical specimen who has to convert that into production at the next level.  If he can turn his potential into production, Gholston could make a huge impact in their pass rush.

Subtractions
The Jets dealt away linebacker Jonathan Vilma to the New Orleans Saints, where he'll be starting at middle linebacker.  Vilma missed the last nine games of the 2007 season after surgery to clean out some fragments and bone chips.  When healthy, Vilma was a tackling machine, so we'll see if the addition of Calvin Pace can shore up the linebacking corp.

2008 Questions and Answers
Like the 49ers, who will win the QB battle?  Considering Pennington is injury-prone and lacking on the deep ball, I'd imagine the Jets are hoping and praying Kellen Clements steps up and takes the job with some gusto.  And of course there is that one wild card: Brett Favre.  Rumors were recently floating around that he had been given permission by the Packers to speak with the Jets.  It sounds like those rumors are dying a somewhat swift death (well as swift as anything can be in this long soap opera).  However, it is certainly something worth keeping an occasional eye on.

Can the defense get its act together?  The defense was pretty brutal last season and they will need to make a go of things if this team is going to improve.  The improvements on the offensive line should help get the offense going in some sort of positive direction.  But if the defense struggles, it won't matter because this offense is not built to win high scoring games.

@ San Francisco
The 49ers will be entering the home stretch of the 2008 season in this game.  Looking at their December schedule (vs. Jets, @ Dolphins, @ Rams, vs. Redskins), 3-1 is not out of the realm of possibility.  I definitely think this games falls into must win.  You have to win your home games when at all possible, and this is definitely a game they should be able to win. 

The Jets have the pieces in place to improve, but I think the 49ers bring more talent to the table.  An improved rush defense will be great for the Jets, but it won't matter against the 49ers rushing attack.  I think you feed Gore and Foster and get the hell out of the way.  I think Gore and Foster could very well combine for over 200 yards against the Jets.  Maybe it's some early season optimism talking but the 49ers come into this game battling for a playoff spot and take the Jets behind the woodshed 34-16.  And yes, I think considering how bad the 49ers have been, an 18 point victory qualifies as taking somebody behind the woodshed.

Training camp starts tomorrow for the 49ers.  That much everybody knows.  What will be the end result nobody really knows.  Accordingly, I thought we'd take a look at the possible best and worst case scenarios for the 49ers.  The plan is to look at them now and then again at the end of training camp when injuries have occurred or been recovered from. 

I had thought about considering injuries, but the worst case scenario could then result in injuries to half the starters.  So, instead the closest I'll come to injuries is certain starters "wearing down" from overuse.  Normally I'm not a really negative person, but I think it's useful to consider the extremes in this case.  Additionally, when I say extremes I'm not saying 16-0 and 0-16.  I'm not predicting starting QB in the Pro Bowl for Alex Smith or 1,800 receiving yards from Bryant Johnson.  Rather these are "realistic" best and worst case scenarios based on the past and thoughts about the future.

Best Case Scenario
While I know plenty of folks are on the Shaun Hill bandwagon, the best case for the 49ers has to involve Alex Smith taking the next step.  If Shaun Hill steps up and takes the starting job that would be a close second.  However, given the investment in and expectations of Alex Smith, the absolute best case scenario is his continued evolution as the starter.

Smith seemed to be making some progress in 2006, so this would involve him taking a step up from that season, as opposed to 2007.  This would involve about 3,500 passing yards (he had 2,890 in 2006) and getting above 60% in completion percentage.  These are numbers that would put him in the top 10-15 QBs in the league.

Frank Gore would bounce back from a relatively sub-par 2007 to finish with 2,000+ combined yards (1,500+ in 2007, 2,170+ in 2006).  Bryant Johnson steps up with 70+ receptions and the 49ers finally have a 1,000+ yard receiver.   At the same time, Vernon Davis takes the next step to 70+ receptions and over 1,000 yards as well.  Finally, after a step back last season, the offensive line gels and keeps Smith off his butt most of the time.  While I'd hope for Chilo Rachal to step up into the right guard role, he settles in as a solid sub and David Baas holds down the job for one season.

On defense, Patrick Willis sees his tackle total go down, but more because the rest of the defense has improved.  Manny Lawson bounces back and the combination of Tully Banta-Cain, Jay Moore, Parys Haralson and some Justin Smith creates a somewhat viable pass rush.  The secondary's statistics improve because of this pass rush and the 49ers defense finishes in the top 10.

Best Case Record: 11-5, division champion.  While I'm not expecting this by any means, I think if things break the 49ers way and players develop like some of us hope, this is not out of the realm of possibility.  The 49ers face a tough schedule outside of the division but there are some upset possibilities.  11-5 can happen with upsets of the Eagles and Redskins and sweeps of the Cardinals OR the Rams.

Worst Case Scenario
Neither Alex Smith or Shaun Hill steps up and J.T. O'Sullivan proves to be the career backup that we expect.  If Smith and Hill both proved mediocre at best, the 49ers would be in the worst possible situation and I'd expect Mike Nolan would be out the door, possibly before the season is over.  The team would realize they need to draft, trade for or sign a new QB of the future and would have wasted the last four seasons and I'd imagine 49ers would be just a little bit frustrated.

Frank Gore could still be decent in a 49ers worst case scenario but I think he wears down over the course of the season and finishes with 900 or so rushing yards, but an increase in receiving yards because none of the receivers are getting open.  So he still finishes with 1,500 combined yards, but they're not "good yards."  The wide receivers struggle as Bryant Johnson will clearly never be more than a backup and Isaac Bruce hits the wall that 35 year old NFL players tend to hit.  Ashley Lelie is cut before the end of September and Jason Hill struggles in learning the NFL game.  Finally, the offensive line does not gel as Jonas Jennings continues to have personal issues.  David Baas is not fully recovered from his pec muscle tear and Chilo Rachal and Tony Wragge are not the answer yet.

On defense, Patrick Willis has an even higher tackle total than last season because the rest of the defense just plain stinks.  The pass rush continues to be non-existent in part because Manny Lawson is slow to recover from his injuries.  Walt Harris hits the same wall as Isaac Bruce and the 49ers are forced to give more playing time to rookie Reggie Smith and second year man Tarell Brown.  Clearly neither is prepared for this situation.

Worst Case Record: 3-13, Nolan is canned and somebody has strangled Mike Martz.  This would actually involve the 49ers going 0-8 on the road and 1-5 in the division.  Of course, they would still beat the Detroit Lions!

Week 7 the 49ers head into New York to face the defending Super Bowl champs, the New York Giants.  The 49ers will be in the midst of a rather fearsome stretch: @ New Orleans, vs. New England, vs. Philadelphia, @ NY and versus the Seahawks.  If they want this season to go anywhere, 2-3 seems like a bare minimum result.

The New York Giants are represented here at SB Nation by Big Blue View, run by ETVal, so head on over if you get a chance.

Overview
While I'm sure there are people who picked the Giants to win it all, I think the general consensus is that they shocked the world this past February when they took down the unbeaten New England Patriot.  The Giants squeaked into the playoffs at 10-6 and definitely made the most of their opportunity.  Earlier in the season they faced off against the 49ers and saw their defense score 24 points in an eventual 33-15 Giants victory.  My prediction of a close Giants win was not to be.

While the Giants lost Jeremy Shockey for the season in Week 15, things worked out well enough in the end thanks to the somewhat stunning rise of Eli Manning, a superb defense and a quality year from Plaxico Burress.

Additions
The Giants made some interesting additions in the offseason.  They landed Mario Manningham, a favorite of some around here, late in the third round.  While he has a ways to climb on the depth chart, I'm curious to see how he performs in the NFL.  He came with some question marks and some baggage, but even though he's in New York, I wouldn't imagine there is a lot of pressure to put up big numbers right away.  And playing behind Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress will give him two impressive receivers to learn from.

They added veteran Sammy Knight when they elected not to shell out the big bucks for Gibril Wilson (thank you Al Davis).  The first two rounds of the draft landed a safety and a cornerback for the future, but they're in good shape for now in their secondary.  I also think they might just have a steal on their hands in sixth round pick Andre Woodson.  He struggled late which saw his stock plummet from high first rounder to where he ended up.

Subtractions
The big change is of course the most recent news of Jeremy Shockey to the Saints.  Losing the franchise's #4 man in receptions certainly won't help the team, but they showed they could win big without him.  Losing the single season sack leader (and #5 all time) in Michael Strahan is certainly a tough blow as well.  While Strahan was starting to lose steam, he still made a very solid contribution.

At the same time, even though two guys who were pretty close to the face of the franchise off and on over the last few years, I don't think the Giants are in too much trouble with these losses.  There will be an impact, but they have some talented guys behind them.  If nobody steps up there will certainly be issues, but the sky isn't falling yet (and besides they won the Super Bowl and can't complain anyways).

2008 Questions and Answers
Will there be a Super Bowl hangover?  Considering the fact that few if any people expected the Giants to win, a hangover certainly seems like a distinct possibility.  At the same time, Tom Coughlin is a disciplinarian type of coach and I can see him being the type of guy who can focus the team on the task at hand and get them thinking about 2008 and only 2008.

Will the real Eli Manning please stand up? Week 17 and the first rwo rounds of the playoffs saw Eli Manning absolutely blow up, taking care of business and moving the team forward.  While he was nowhere near as good in the conference championship game and the Super Bowl, he still didn't blow things for his team, which is sometimes all you can ask for.  The monkey of being Peyton's little brother has been removed by the Lombardi Trophy, so now we get to see what Eli can do without that kind of pressure.  It's still New York so there will always be some pressure.  Winning it all could lead to Eli getting truly comfortable as a star QB, or he just reverts back to his old ways.  Who really knows right now.

vs. San Francisco
Last season I picked a 23-21 Giants victory.  This season, I think the Super Bowl hangover happens and the 49ers offense doesn't have the turnover issues they had last year.  I'm gonna go so far as to say 49ers victory 24-20.  Of most of the predictions I'll make, this one might inspire the least confidence.  However, if the guys we expect to start are starting (meaning no 3rd string QBs and the like), I think this is a very winnable upset.  Join with me in praying for the hangover.

Since training camp starts later this week, I put together a short list of position battles heading into training camp.  I could wait until the day before, but since nothing is likely to change in the next few days, now is as good a time as any.  We previously went over quarterback, right guard and the third/nickel back.  At each position I've posted who I think is the early leader in the battle.

Right Outside Linebacker
Leader at the first turn: Tully Banta-Cain
When TBC was brought in last season, there was hope that he would help generate the pass rush that has been missing for some time.  Unfortunately it did not work out quite like that.  While he pounced on Kurt Warner's end zone fumble in overtime, that was probably the only highlight of significance from 2007.  While with the Patriots, TBC was a veritable super-sub and it's possible he ends up back in that role with the 49ers.  I list him as the leader simply because he's the incumbent.  He'll see competition from my boy Jay Moore and Parys Haralson and will lose playing time to Justin Smith if the 49ers continue mixing him into the linebacker corp.  Moore missed all of last season with a high ankle sprain but certainly had an opportunity to learn the system.  I'm quite curious to see how he looks once the games get going.

Haralson got a big bump in playing time and while he wasn't spectacular, he certainly showed some skills.  I would expect even more playing time for him this season.  Considering the competition for playing time, I could definitely see the right OLB being a rotation between TBC, Haralson, Moore and Smith.  While it'd be nice to see a single guy step into the role, each competitor brings something different to the table.  Would you expect a platoon situation?

#2/#3 Wide Receiver
Leader at the first turn: Bryant Johnson and Arnaz Battle
It seems pretty clear that Bruce and Johnson are the guys we'll see starting every week.  While the team isn't rolling out the likes of Boldin and Fitzgerald or Holt and Bruce (back in the day), the depth at wide receiver is intriguing nonetheless.  Arnaz Battle is the guy who comes into training camp behind some new toy and is expected to take a step backwards.  And then every year he steps up once again and is the 49ers most consistent receiver.  Barring Isaac Bruce losing all his skills, Battle will primarily be battling Bryant Johnson for playing time.  As much as I enjoy Battle on the field, I also know that if Johnson steps up and takes the #2 (or even #1) position, the 49ers will be better for it.  Johnson brings more athleticism to the position and I think long term, Battle is better suited as the #3 guy.

I certainly would like to see Ashley Lelie step up and make a name for himself, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Jason Hill or even Josh Morgan leap him on the depth chart.  He has supposedly climbed out the doghouse, but until he produces, I'm not holding my breath.  Hill is an interesting option as he spent much of last year injured.  This training camp, particularly the exhibition games, will be very important if he wants to not get relegated to the scrap heap.

Free Safety
Leader at the first turn: Mark Roman
We've heard plenty of reports about Dashon Goldson looking sharp in practice.  Roman had to get his shoulder cleaned out and that gave Goldson more first team time during OTAs.  Roman isn't getting any younger and as is the case so often in professional sports, it's always nice to improve the team while getting younger.  This may actually be the training camp battle I'm most excited about.  Assuming Roman is healthy, I'd imagine he'll have the edge.  They say the challenger has to truly beat the champ to take the title and Goldson will really have to step up.  Roman is a solid free safety, but it would certainly be nice to get the position locked up with a young talent like Goldson.

Aside from the positions mentioned above and previously, the remaining positional battles are more playing time than starting or not starting.  Nose tackle will be interesting because there are so many bodies to mix in that I don't see a single full-time guy there.  Aubrayo Franklin is the nose tackle, but Balmer will get some time and I'm curious to see how they move around Sopoaga.  And, of course, if they mix in some 4-3 schemes the nose tackle disappears.

So, if there's a position battle you think I missed, feel free to let us know about it.

The 49ers open training camp at the end of this week and we'll finally start to get some answers to the numerous burning questions facing the 49ers.  If you ask the mainstream media, the 49ers training camp questions boil down to learning Mike Martz's offense, the QB battle and, oh yea, the QB battle.

We all realize that there are a variety of battles to consider.  Some of them are pretty obvious, while others are a little more subtle.  Post-draft minicamp and the OTAs are done and while not a lot has been answered, the picture is starting to clear up.  I had considered titling this something to do with coming down the stretch, but there is too much training camp for us to already be coming down the stretch.  So here are my thoughts on the various battles and who the leader is after the first turn.

QB
Leader at the first turn: Alex Smith
We'll just get this out of the way.  Alex Smith is the more mechanically and fundamentally sound QB so it's natural that he would be the leader going into training camp.  Throw in the biggest contract and it makes the answer even easier.  Once we get into games, we'll see how things play out.

Ted Linebacker
Leader at the first turn: Jeff Ulbrich
Until recently this seemed like a 3-horse race between Jeff Ulbrich, Dontarrious Thomas and my boy Larry Grant.  Well, Mike Nolan and Scot McCloughan had a conference call with reporters yesterday and some interesting news came out.  According to them, Ulbrich has a clear handle on the position, but it is in competition with Larry Grant and Brandon Moore.  Apparently Thomas has been moved to the backup Mike position behind Patrick Willis.  It sounds to me like Thomas will end up in a super-sub kind of role.  It's also possible he's struggling picking up the defense and they figure he could do less damage backing up Willis.  Thoughts?

Right Guard
Leader at the first turn: David Baas (if you ask Nolan)
In the conference call, Nolan said the 49ers fully expected Baas to be ready in time for the regular season and step into the starting role.  Training camp however will see a battle between Tony Wragge and Chilo Rachal.  This leaves a lot of questions on the table, if Wragge or Rachal clicks with the rest of the offensive line.  Matt Barrows made mention of this last week and it is certainly something to consider.  On the plus side, having multiple guys playing well is certainly good for depth.  On the minus side, the offensive line is built on chemistry and cohesion.  You don't want to be bumping guys around throughout the game.  Looking at the 3 guys, Baas is only 26, Rachal 22 and Wragge 28.  So age really isn't an issue.  Of course, while it's all just rumor-mongering, throw in the highly speculative but still potential return of Larry Allen and it creates all sorts of confusion.  Larry Allen aside, the injury to Baas leaves things in limbo.  We'll have an answer as to who is ahead on the depth chart between Wragge and Rachal.  However, unless Baas has a setback or has a miraculous recovery in the next week or two, right guard will remain a question mark.

3rd/Nickel Cornerback
Leader at the first turn: Shawntae Spencer
Surprisingly there has been very little talk about this position battle.  Obviously the national media could care less, but even among local media things are quiet.  Barrows briefly mentioned the position in relation to Walt Harris's eventual successor.  The battle comes down to Spencer, Tarell Brown and Reggie Smith.  Brown got a little playing time last season but clearly he's still got a lot to learn.  Back during the draft, Scouts Inc felt Reggie Smith could step right into the 49ers sub packages.  He can play corner and safety so he certainly brings some versatility.  Of all the positional battles, this one could yield the most for team depth.  I'd expect Spencer to be the guy coming out of camp (if he's healthy), but I think Brown will see a lot more playing time from last year and Smith will get a nice chunk of time.  The 49ers play some receiver heavy teams this year so cornerback depth will be huge.  Furthermore, if the pass rush is weak and the corners are crazy-busy, the more quality guys they can rotate in the better.

Stick with these for conversation for now.  I'll have another post late this afternoon later tonight discussing the likes of right outside linebacker, wide receiver and free safety.

Now that teams are reporting for training camp this week, ESPN.com rolled out their training camp edition power rankings.  The 49ers open the rankings at 28 with a low vote of 31 and a high vote of 23.  Overall, the NFC West did not fare well, finishing last among all divisions in average ranking of each team within the division.

So the question becomes, is the NFC West being accurately predicted as the worst division in football, or is the division actually underrated and in line to surprise a few people?

Mike Sando agrees with me that he thinks the St. Louis Rams are potentially better than people expect.  I fully expect a rebound from the Rams in 2008.  Maybe they won't make the playoffs, but coming off a 3-13 season I think 6-10 is not out the realm of possibility, if not better.  Of course if they have a repeat of last year's injuries and a relatively poor season from Steven Jackson, a 3-13 repeat is certainly possible.

Of course the Arizona Cardinals remain a mystery squad.  They range between 13 and 25, lending credence to the idea that anything is possible with them.  It seems like every year somebody predicts they'll win the division and make some noise in the conference.  And then virtually every year they disappoint.  At 8-8 they certainly weren't awful last year, but we certainly won't be crowning their asses anytime soon.

And finally there are the Seattle Seahawks.  The high and low rankings for the Seahawks are 6 and 17, with most resting just above and below the 9-10 mark.  Seattle is once again the favorite to win the division and all I can muster up is a hearty, "Meh."  I wouldn't call them the Atlanta Braves of the NFL.  However, it seems like recently they have been a team that, while certainly qualified to win the division, doesn't bring much else to the table.  Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the 49ers winning the division every year, even if it meant a crash and burn in the playoffs.  Mike Holmgren is entering his final season as head coach and would certainly like to go out with something special.  I'm not holding my breath.  I honestly think their annual cruise into the division title will be a little more difficult this season.

I've babbled on about the other teams in the division, but I'm convinced the NFC will be better than people expect.  Most of us think the 49ers can be competitive with the division.  Arizona certainly isn't spectacular, but they've improved from the crap of recent past.  So, will the Rams step up this season and show some improvement?  The division finished 26-38, good for a tie with the AFC West for worst combined record.  I certainly would like to see the West Coast get their act together.  Will it happen in the NFC West this season?

If I had to classify myself, I'd say I'm somewhere between a realist and an optimist.  For example, using this year as an example I think 8-9 wins is a possibility for the 49ers.  What would that kind of prediction make me?  My guess is just above realist but not quite a crazy-eyed optimist.  We've looked at the 49ers schedule several times whether it be the gambling look or early win/loss predictions.

Today I've thought of one more opportunity to look at the schedule.  I think most of us would agree that the 49ers chances of making it to the playoffs are not all that great.  It would definitely be an optimistic, glass at least 3/4 full approach to consider that possibility.

One aspect to consider is who the 49ers will need to beat that they would not be expected to beat.  For this, we're going to ignore the 6 divisional games.  I honestly think 3-3 is a reasonable expectation, but that's for another day.  For now I'm going to break down the non-divisional games into three different categories.

1. Must-win even if we're only winning 6 or 7 games this year
Week 3 vs. Detroit - I know they finished 7-9 last year, but I just cannot get behind them.  I realize Detroit could certainly win this game, but I really would be disappointed by a loss in this game.

Week 14 vs. NY Jets - I think our defense can handle the passing game and their rushing attack leaves much to be desired.  Another game I'd be disappointed to lose.

Week 15 @ Miami - Maybe Parcells will turn things around, but it will NOT be happening in year 1.

2. If you want to be a playoff team, you need to win some of these games
Week 6 vs. Philadelphia - The Eagles are going to be tough this year, but I think the 49ers have it in them to swing the upset.

Week 13 @ Buffalo - The Bills are quietly building something rather intriguing up there.  This will be a very tough game, but it is still winnable.

Week 17 vs. Washington - After building a solid defense, the Redskins added more weapons for Jason Campbell via the draft.  I think the Redskins are a playoff bound team

Week 4 @ New Orleans - I think the 49ers could easily get bulldozed in the Superdome, but an upset is not out of the realm of possibility.  The 49ers could be 2-1 at this point and have a little positive momentum, so we'll see.

Week 7 @ NY Giants - Maybe the Super Bowl hangover continues two months into the season.

3. Can we just take a knee to avoid injuries?
Week 5 vs. New England - I honestly just don't want to get embarrassed.

Week 12 @ Dallas - As much fun as it would be to go into Big D and shock the Cowgirls, I think they've just got too much talent.  Hopefully I'm wrong on this one.

So looking at those 10 games, let's do a little math.  If the 49ers go 3-3 in the division and win the category 1 trio of must-wins, they're 6-3.  Using last year as a baseline, 9-7 was sufficient to get a team into the playoffs.  That means winning three of the category 2 games.  None of them is an easy game, but like I said before, if you want to take the proverbial next step, you have to step up and win games you wouldn't necessarily win as an "average" team.

Once again, this is most definitely a glass half full look at things.  If the 49ers went 9-7 or even 8-8 I think most of us would be quite happy.  I'd say I'd be very happy with 8-8 and damn near ecstatic with 9-7.  It's a shame we settle for average to slightly above average, but as they say, you've got to take baby steps.

So would you agree with my assessment on the different categories of games?  I think the Saints and Giants games could both be especially tough, but not so much as to be virtually guaranteed losses.

After looking at the 49ers 2007 schedule against the spread, I thought I'd look at the 49ers 2008 schedule and try and predict which games they'd be favorites and which games they'd be underdogs.  If I list them as a slight dog or favorite, I'm thinking the spread will be 3 points or less.  A heavy dog or favorite would be a spread of 9 or more points (because it's now more than one possession).  In 2007 the 49ers were favorites once and underdogs the remaining 15 games, which shouldn't come as too big a surprise.

Week 1 - vs. Arizona: Slight Underdog - As a home team you automatically get 3 points.  Once again, Arizona is a chic pick to do well.  While I think the 49ers can win this game, I definitely think the spread on this is no more than a point or two.

Week 2 - @ Seattle: Heavy Underdog - Seattle was only a 1.5 favorite at San Francisco early last season, but by their week 10 matchup in Seattle, the Seahawks were a 10.5 favorite.  Even if the 49ers beat Arizona, it's too early for them to make a dent in a potentially large spread (barring injuries).

Week 3 - vs. Detroit: Favorite - Both teams have the same 80-1 Super Bowl odds and while Detroit is coming off a better 7-9 season, I think the 49ers come in as a 4 or so point favorite.  The 49ers are the home team and hopefully will be at worst 1-1 and coming off a respectable effort in Seattle.

Week 4 - @ New Orleans: Underdog - The Saints have had their way with the 49ers the last couple of years.  The Saints open against 2 playoff teams and a 7-9 Broncos squad that is always frisky.  If they open 2-1 or 3-0 this could move to heavy underdog status.

Week 5 - vs. New England: Heavy Underdog - Home game or not, there is no doubt in my mind the 49ers open as heavy dogs.  The only way they don't is if they open the season 3-1 or 4-0 and the Patriots are 0-4 or 1-3.

Week 6 - vs. Philadelphia: Underdog - The Eagles are one of those teams that have enough skill position players that people think they're better than they are.  I think they're a solid team, thus a slightly bigger spread, but I also think this is an eminently winnable game for the 49ers.

Week 7 - @ NY Giants: Underdog - The Giants had their way with the 49ers last season and are the defending champs.  I'm curious how the letdown factor plays in.  I think this one is definitely closer to heavy dog, than slight dog.

Week 8 - vs. Seattle: Slight Underdog - This is definitely a homer pick as I think the 49ers are playing well enough to be considered within shouting distance of the Seahawks.  If the 49ers were 3-4 at this point I'd be pleased and I'm basing this prediction on them actually being 3-4 or better.  Let's hope I'm not wrong.

Week 10 - @ Arizona: Underdog - If the Cardinals have sunk to below expectations this could drop to slight underdog.  If Arizona is meeting expectations and has a shot at the division title I'd say this is around a touchdown spread, give or take a point or two.

Week 11 - vs. St. Louis: Favorite - The Rams and 49ers are predicted to be battling for the cellar.  The 49ers won at St. Louis and lost at home so we'll see how things play out in 2008.  If the Rams defense could get their act together and Pace can stay healthy, I think the Rams will be better than people think.

Week 12 - @ Dallas: Heavy Underdog - The Cowboys are a very good team and I'd be shocked if this wasn't a double digit spread.  I'd certainly love to see the 49ers pull the upset, but I'm not marking this one down as even a potential W.

Week 13 - @ Buffalo: Underdog - This depends in part on the continued maturation of Trent Edwards.  I could definitely see the Bills making the leap form 7-9 to 10-6.  The Bills had a decent enough defense and if their offense can taking things to the next level they can make that leap.

Week 14 - vs. NY Jets: Slight Favorite - The Jets are a team that are hard to preview.  They have all sorts of question marks, but if they get some answers they could be decent (although not a playoff team).  Will Pennington or Clemens step up or will it remain some kind of nebulous limbo?

Week 15 - @ Miami: Favorite - It may be a road game, but anytime your starting QB is Josh McCown, John Beck or Chad Henne, you don't deserve to be favored against anybody.  The Big Tuna is doing what he can to turn thing around, but they've got their work cut out for them.  This is definitely a must win for the 49ers.

Week 16 - @ St. Louis: Slight Favorite - We'd all like the 49ers to be contending at this point, or at least at a respectable level.  With a couple minor upsets, the 49ers could be 7-7 at this point.  If that were the case, I think they go into St. Louis favored by a couple points.

Week 17 - vs. Washington: Underdog - While it was kind of odd for them to go so heavy on offense in the draft, I really like what the Redskins did.  Jason Campbell has more than enough weapons to make thing happen.  Combined with an already solid defense and they're definitely a playoff contender.  I think the Redskins are favored by between 5 and 7 points.  However, if the 49ers wanted to make the playoffs in 2008, this is a game they would have to win.

So after adding it all up, I've got the 49ers as underdogs in 11 games and favorites in 5 games.  Of course the problem with this kind of prediction is that each week's spread is based in part on their performance up to that point.  So, if the 49ers start out hot and look impressive, some of those underdogs might move to slight and some of those slight dogs move to even or slight favorites.

So what exactly is a semi-rational irrational prediction?  Well, it's irrational because there is very little new information that would make this a valid prediction.  We all are hoping certain things happen, but it's a long season and considering we haven't reached training camp, who knows what will happen.  I term it semi-rational though because I do have some sound reasoning for this prediction, or at least reasonably sound I guess.  Feel free to create your own semi-rational irrational prediction, or just mock mine.

Vernon Davis finished 2007 with 52 receptions for 509 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Those are respectable numbers for an anemic offense, but nothing to write home about.  However, among the 47 NFL tight ends with at least 1 reception and/or 1 receiving yard, The Disease finished 4th in receptions, 6th in receiving yards and 6th in touchdowns.  The tight ends ahead of him were the usual suspects, including Jason Witten, Chris Cooley and Jeremy Shockey.

Jason Witten finished with 96 receptions, 1,145 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Chris Cooley finished with 66 receptions, 786 yards and 8 touchdowns.  Jeremy Shockey finished with 57 receptions, 619 yards and 3 touchdowns.

In the new Mike Martz offense, Frank Gore is expected to have a big year in the Marshall Faulk role.  We're all hoping Alex Smith/Shaun Hill is able to put up big numbers, or at least better than average.  However, of all the offensive weapons, I think Vernon Davis is due to have the big breakout season.  I remain completely convinced that Vernon Davis will soon be joining the continuing evolution of the tight end position with the likes of Antonio Gates. 

Mike Martz has not used the tight end much in his offense, but he's never had a tight end that can match the rare combination of size and speed The Disease possesses.  When Davis is lined up as a tight end, no linebacker can cover him.  Check the video from the Bengals game last season where Davis made the linebacker look absolutely helpless on this touchdown catch (at the 1:15 mark and ignore the Limp Bizkit).  At the same time, he is too big and physical for a corner or safety to cover him like normal.

While there are clearly several keys to the offense turning things around (o-line, QB, RB, WR, etc...), if this team makes the playoffs, Vernon Davis will have had a big year.  There was a lot of discussion during OTAs about the installation of "hot reads."  I think Davis will be one of the primary beneficiaries.  Furthermore, I consider Davis more of a receiver than a tight end (even though he can fill both roles obviously).  As such, drafted receivers often take 2 or 3 years before they make that leap in greatness.  This is his 3rd year and I think the leap is at hand.

As far as what it will take to make it to the Pro Bowl?  Well I'll give you this prediction and say that it will be sufficient to get him in.  Davis will finish the season with 73 receptions, 805 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Maybe it's a little irrational to think he'll make the leap, but I think there is some sound reasoning for that position.

So, let's open the floor.  You're more than welcome to criticize or support my prediction, but I'd love to hear a single semi-rational irrational prediction from you folks.  I'm sure there's one guy on the team that you just have a gut-feeling about how he'll do and want to shout it on the rooftops.  So, let's hear it.  And even better, I've created a separate section for this called Preview.  So it'll be that much easier to find this wild and crazy predictions when the season comes to a close.