Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers' team stats rank in the NFL according to Football Outsiders (FO).* If you want a less stat-intensive look at 49er rankings, check out Fooch's weekly post on how the team stacks up against the rest of the NFL according to the internet punditocracy.

Two things have happened since the last time I posted 49er team stats and rankings. First, they had a bye, meaning that some of their DVOA rankings changed simply by virtue of the NFL average for specific game situations changing during their bye week. Second, and much more important, the Niners played a really weird game against HOU in which the offense (OFF) couldn't move the ball with Shaun Hill at QB, but moved it pretty easily with Alex Smith during the 2nd half, and the defense (DEF) couldn't stop the Texans at all during the 1st half, but held them to only 3 points in the 2nd half. Because of these two circumstances, the 49ers' team stats and rankings according to FO have actually changed quite considerably. I'll try to flesh things out as best as I can.

TEAM RANKINGS

Here are the 49ers' overall team DVOAs and rankings (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Despite the fact that the Niners lost @ HOU, and had practically no OFF during the 1st half, their Total (TOT) DVOA actually improved by 3.2% behind the strength of an OFF that improved 5.1%. This must be attributed, at least in part, to the dominance of SF's OFF during the 2nd half of the game. As I've said all week in various threads, we need to keep the OFF's 2nd half performance in perspective. Nevertheless, it appears from these stats that Smith and company outperformed the NFL average in the relatively easy game situations they were presented with during the 2nd half of a blowout.

On the defensive side of the ball, that unit dropped out of the top 8 for the first time this season thanks to a 3.0% decline in DEF DVOA. With respect to special teams (ST), the unit somehow improved by 1.1% despite Arnaz "The Blackmailer" Battle's muffed punt.

A couple of interesting changes in the above stats regard DVOA Variance and DVOA Strength of Schedule (SOS). Specifically, the 49ers actually moved up 8 spots in the Variance rankings, suggestive of increased week-to-week consistency, which is probably due to the fact that they've displayed the same relatively mediocre performance for the past 3 games. In terms of SOS, the Niners have now played a schedule so far that's above the league average in opponent difficulty. With games against the Vikings, Falcons, and Texans, along with the Cardinals' re-emergence as a high-DVOA team, it's evident that the Niners have played a reasonably difficult schedule thus far this season. And it doesn't get any easier this week with their trip to Indy (42.4% TOT DVOA, 2nd).

Finally, in case you're wondering, the 49ers' TOT DVOA ranking puts them behind ARI (22.0%, 10th) and SEA (-2.9%, 19th) among NFC West teams.

After the jump, I'll present the rest of the 49ers' stats, rankings, and situation splits...

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Fooch's Note: Don't forget to head over to our open thread for today's game.

Since the Falcons debacle, doom and gloom seems to be cropping up more and more on our threads. So I figured now would be a good time to inject a little optimism to Niners Nation (NN), and talk some of us down off the ledge...

A few weeks ago, I posted an article about the meaning of being 2-0 overall and within the NFC West. Just to remind you, here was my bottom line:

So, to sum up...By virtue of their 2-0 record both overall and within their division, the 49ers

• are about 30 times more likely to win the NFC West than if they started 0-2 in the division
• can expect to win about 10 games this season
• are about 5 times more likely to make the playoffs than if they started 0-2 overall

That sounded pretty good at the time, especially the part about being 2-0 in the division. Obviously, as much as I'd like to be telling you what 5-0 overall means right now, the 49ers have lost 2 of their past 3 games, which puts them at a pretty-much-meaningless 3-2 overall. Therefore, today's report from Optimismland will focus solely on the meaning of being 3-0 in the division. As you'll find out, it actually means quite a bit.

After the jump, I'll show you just how meaningful it is, and even give you some optimism were the Niners to end up not winning the division...

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AUTHOR'S NOTE: This post is one part mental exercise and one part debate catalyst. Please don't respond in the comments section telling me all the ways my - admittedly - very crude analysis is limited. I know I'm extrapolating from a small sample size, I know that the addition of Michael Crabtree changes things, I know that the return of Frank Gore changes things, I know that Glen Coffee is the new kick returner, and I know that Mike Singletary is not Mike Nolan (i.e., an inevitable mid-to-late-season swoon). The objective here is simply to point out a few matchups that seem to matter when it comes to 49er wins and losses, to see how their remaining opponents rate with respect to those matchups, and to elicit your opinions on the matter.

With their bye week over, the 49ers are preparing to begin an 11-week stretch run towards the playoffs. Therefore, now is as good a time as any to take a look at their remaining schedule. Of course, knowing me, you're not surprised to find out that my interest is in examining the schedule from a statistical perspective.

Generally, I try to keep my matchup evaluation process as simple as possible. At its most basic level, a team has several paths to winning a game:

• The team's ability to play up to their strengths
• The team's ability to minimize the effect of their weaknesses
• The team's ability to exploit their opponent's weaknesses
• The team's ability to nullify their opponent's strengths
• Luck

I throw luck in there at the end because, sometimes, a team does most of the other things, and yet still loses a game they should have won. Two quick examples come to mind. The Dolphins pretty much executed their game plan perfectly against the Colts in Week 2. They ran the ball (i.e., played up to their strength), and nullified IND's strength (i.e., they kept Peyton Manning off the field for over 75% of the game). Despite this, they still lost. The second obvious example is the Niners' loss to the Vikings. SF passed the ball really well in that game (i.e., exploited MIN's weakness on DEF) and nullified MIN's strength (i.e., they held Adrian Peterson to a sub-par game). Despite this, they lost because of a miracle play. So, even though the NFL is all about matchups, sometimes winning the matchup doesn't translate into winning the game.

After the jump I'll identify the important matchups and break down the remaining schedule. Pay close attention for the Phil Luckett appearance...

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via www.cartoonstock.com

Danny here...Just wanted to pass along a link that I think is pretty relevant for Niners Nation (NN) in general, but especially relevant to those of us who've engaged in the whole "football stats matter" vs. "football stats don't matter" debate.

In his post introducing the Week 6 DVOA ratings, Aaron over at Football Outsiders discusses a few things that I'd like to call attention to for the sake of debate.

First, Aaron talks about how their preseason predictions for the Broncos and Chargers were very wrong, and -- get this -- asks the audience for assistance in coming up with objective reasons that might identify where DVOA was deficient. As I've said on NN, "Stats are NOT people too." DVOA is not some master plan executed by FO at their secret headquarters ala Dr. Evil calling for "the laser" or Don Corleone doing a favor for Bonasera the undertaker. Rather, it is an objective measure refined over and over again to account for instances in which it doesn't seem to spit out a valid result. Acknowledging a DVOA deficiency and asking for assistance is proof positive of this refinement process.

Second, Aaron talks about how the Eagles are -- just like last year -- much higher in the DVOA rankings than their winning percentage would otherwise indicate. In 2008, FO was hammered all season for PHI's weekly top 5 ranking. Then the playoffs arrived, and the 6th-seeded Eagles vidicated FO by advancing to the NFC championship game. Through Week 6 in 2009, PHI is #2 in Total DVOA despite a pedestrian 3-2 record, and thus FO is once again under fire. In the post, Aaron -- with the help of commenters -- tries to figure out why the Eagles are DVOA darlings.

Finally, motivated by the Titans' 59-0 loss to the Patriots this past weekend, Aaron lists the worst 10 single-game team performances in the history of DVOA. This is relevant to NN because (a) the 2005 49ers hold 2 out of the 10 spots, and (b) NFC West teams hold the top (bottom?) 3 spots, and 6 out of the top 10.

So, if you've been involved in the DVOA debates on NN and/or you'd like to see how the 2005 49ers (or 2000-2003 Cardinals or 2008 Rams) were the embodiment of game-specific situational inefficiency, click here and give Aaron's post a read.

Welcome back for another look at Niner player statistics and rankings as published by Football Outsiders (FO). As the title of this post indicates, I'll be presenting 49er player stats and rankings through Week 5. So nothing you saw yesterday (or the day before) is included in anything I talk about in this post. I think that's the cleanest way to proceed given that the 49ers' aggregate (i.e., non-per-play) stats will otherwise have been disadvantaged by their bye week. If you're unfamiliar with FO's player stats (i.e., DYAR, individual DVOA, and EYds) and line stats (i.e., ALY and ASR), or if you need a refresher course, take a look at my explanations here.

This week, QBs need a total of at least 50 passes to qualify as having valid FO stats, RBs need at least 40 carries, WRs need at least 20 targets, and TEs need at least 10 targets. Therefore, the players I'll be breaking down this week are Shaun Hill, Glen Coffee, Isaac Bruce, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. I'll also, of course, be presenting FO stats for the OL, the DEF front 7, and the secondary.

Just a word of warning. This is going to be ugly. Starting with...

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Shaun Hill's stats through 5 games (bold = ranked 8th or better [top 25% of starters]; italics = ranked 25th or worse [bottom 25% of starters]):

What a difference a week makes. Compared to his stats prior to the Falcons game, Hill's DYAR and YAR both decreased by about 100 yards, his DVOA and VOA both decreased by about 12.5%, and his EYds Per Pass decreased by nearly a full yard. Essentially, what happened here is similar to what I discussed in the team rankings post. Hill's stats took a major hit due to his poor performance while getting blown out during the 2nd half last week. He couldn't play efficient QB even when ATL didn't care if he was successful or not. If you're a QB, and you can't matriculate the ball down the field while getting blown out, then you're probably not a good QB. Hill's stats reflect that reality, especially with respect to the situational efficiency stats, DVOA and EYds Per Pass.

Bottom line here is that, whether in terms of value or efficiency, Hill is one of the worst 5 QBs in the NFL so far this season. Somewhere, Mike Martz is laughing.

After the jump, I'll present and discuss the rest of the stats, and offer my two cents about the recent news regarding Josh Morgan's demotion. Be prepared to shield your eyes. This could get ugly...

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Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers' team stats rank in the NFL according to Football Outsiders (FO).* If you want a less stat-intensive look at 49er rankings, check out Fooch's weekly post on how the team stacks up against the rest of the NFL according to the internet punditocracy.

The obvious focus of this week's post is going to be how the Niners' FO stats and rankings were affected by Sunday's - holding back vomit - 45-10 loss at the hands of the Falcons. When a team is on the wrong end of a 45-10 game, you'd assume that both their offense (OFF), who only scored 10 points, and their defense (DEF), who gave up 45 points, are going to take a statistical beating across the board. However, there are two issues we need to keep in mind when evaluating the effect of the ATL game:

• Situations Matter. Make sure to remember that DVOA is a measure of situational efficiency. So just because the Niners performed like a JV team based on the final score, don't assume that they performed that bad in every specific game situation. For instance, the fact that the OFF scored only 10 points in the game isn't nearly as bad as the fact that they scored 0 points during the 2nd half despite being in a situation (i.e., down at least 25 points) where ATL's defense (DEF) was minimally interested in stopping them. In other words, an OFF can score only 10 points, and yet still be efficient provided that their not - ala the Niners vs. ATL - playing half of the game in the easiest of easy offensive situations.
• Ceiling/Floor Effect. Also make sure to remember that, going into Week 5, the 49ers' OFF was ranked near the bottom of the league in most OFF DVOA categories, while their DEF was ranked near the top of the league in most DEF DVOA categories. For you Olympics buffs out there, I'm basically saying that the OFF was diving from the 3m springboard going into the ATL game, while the DEF was diving from the 10m platform. In statistics, having, at-most, a 3m dive is called the floor effect, while having, at-most, a 10m dive is called the ceiling effect. So, after the ATL blowout, it's much more likely that the DEF's stats dove farther than the OFF's stats; simply because the DEF was diving from higher up.

So keeping these situational and diving event differences in mind, let's take a look at the stats and rankings through Week 5.

After the jump, I'll present the 49ers' overall stats, rankings, and situation splits, as well as introduce a new member of the Tony Robbins splits...

Continue reading this post »

Fooch's Note: Make sure and check out our game-day thread now up.

Welcome back for this week's look at Niner player statistics and rankings as published by Football Outsiders (FO). If you're unfamiliar with FO's player stats (i.e., DYAR, individual DVOA, and EYds) and line stats (i.e., ALY and ASR), or if you need a refresher course, take a look at my explanations here and here.

This week, QBs need a total of at least 30 passes to qualify as having valid FO stats, RBs need at least 32 carries, WRs need at least 13 targets, and TEs need at least 6 targets. The only Niner that qualifies this week, but didn't qualify last week is Josh Morgan, presumably because Jimmy Raye and Shaun Hill decided last week to starting throwing the ball to other WRs besides Isaac Bruce. Therefore, the players I'll be breaking down this week are Hill, Glen Coffee, Bruce, Morgan, and Vernon Davis. I'll also, of course, be presenting FO stats for the OL, the DEF front 7, and the secondary.

Two more things I'd like to mention before I get the party started. First, as I said in this week's team rankings post, all FO stats are now adjusted for opponents. In that case, I'll be presenting YARs and VOAs (i.e., stats that aren't defense-adjusted) alongside DYARs and DVOAs (i.e., stats that are defense-adjusted) to gauge the effect that strength of schedule (SOS) has had on 49er player stats. Second, I won't be presenting cumulative stats (i.e., passes/runs/targets, actual yards, and EYds) because bye weeks mean more opportunities for some players to accumulate them than others.

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Shaun Hill's stats through 4 games (bold = ranked 8th or better [top 25% of starters]; italics = ranked 25th or worse [bottom 25% of starters]):

Compared to last week, Hill's DYAR and DVOA rank 7 spots higher, thereby vaulting him out of the bottom 8 starting QBs. However, he's still in the bottom 8 with respect to both actual yards per pass and EYds per pass. On the bright side, though, at least the gap separating his EYds per pass and actual yards per pass decreased by 63.6%; to the point that there's only a negligible difference between the two.

Looking at the effect of opponent adjustments, it's clear from Hill's stats that he's been throwing the ball against weaker pass defenses. Specifically, strength (weakness?) of schedule has accounted for 20 YAR and +2.8% efficiency.

After the jump, I'll present and discuss the rest of the stats, as well as introduce you to the 49ers' new dynamic duo. Oh, and also, look closely for the hidden, real-life Billy Mays (RIP) gem...

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AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you're interested in a discussion of the 49ers' #1 ranking in Red Zone Pass Offense DVOA, mosey on over to Fooch's post from earlier today. In my post, I'm just rubbernecking it. His post stops and stares.

Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers' team stats rank in the NFL according to Football Outsiders (FO). Now that the season is 25% done, there are 2 changes that affect the stats and rankings in this post:

1. All FO stats are now adjusted for opponent. So beginning this week, and for the rest of the season, all of the 49ers' overall and situational stats should be interpreted as if they've played a league-average schedule. In other words, FO has removed the effect that playing good teams (e.g., the Vikings) or bad teams (e.g., the Rams) has had on the 49ers' overall and situational performance.
2. I've included two new sets of stats because their sample sizes are now large enough for them to actually give us valid information: (a) DVOA by quarters and halves, and (b) DVOA in the shotgun formation.

OK, so with that housekeeping taken care of, it's onward ho!

TEAM RANKINGS

Below are the 49ers' overall team DVOAs and rankings (See here for my explanation of FO team stats). Based on the incorporation of opponent adjustments, I've added three new stats to the table:

• VOA, which is DVOA without the opponent adjustments. I present this so we can see the effect that the 49ers' schedule has had on their performance.
• SOS, which is strength of schedule according to DVOA. I present this for the same reason as VOA.
• Variance, which is the consistency of DVOA from week to week. I present this to show how consistently (or inconsistently) the 49ers have performed from week to week. Lower percentages mean more consistency, and teams are ranked from most to least consistent.

Here's the new table (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

After the jump, I'll (a) discuss this table; (b) break down the offensive, defensive, and special teams rankings; and (c) unveil a new feature that pays homage to the world's most famous motivational speaker (no, I don't mean Mike Singletary)...

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