NFL Preview - Buffalo (5-3) at New England (5-3)
Sports Network | November 06, 2008
(Sports Network) - Just a few short weeks ago, it appeared as if the Buffalo Bills had established themselves as a serious threat to the New England Patriots' reign of supremacy in the AFC East. But after enduring losses to divisional opponents in back-to-back games, the bloom seems to be coming off the Bills' rose.
The two longtime rivals will battle for what amounts to at least a share of first place in the AFC East this Sunday at Gillette Stadium, a place that has been a house of horrors for Buffalo in recent years.
The Bills' 5-1 start to this season stirred up plenty of excitement for a franchise that hasn't reached the playoffs since 1999, but optimism has been tempered a bit after the club came up short in consecutive matchups to Miami and the New York Jets over the past two weeks. The mini-slump has dropped Buffalo into a three-way tie with the Patriots and Jets atop the tightly- bunched AFC East, with the improving Dolphins lurking only one game off the pace.
Turnovers have led to the Bills' downfall in each of their last two defeats. Buffalo had four giveaways in its 25-16 setback at Miami in Week 8, while the turning point of last Sunday's 26-17 home loss to the Jets came when quarterback Trent Edwards was intercepted deep in New York territory late in the first quarter by safety Abram Elam, who ran the pick back 92 yards for a touchdown.
Buffalo now has to try for a rebound against a New England squad that has taken 14 of the last 15 meetings in this series, including nine straight clashes, and outscored the Bills by a whopping 94-17 margin during last year's home-and-home sweep. The Patriots haven't lost to Buffalo at home since 2000.
This isn't quite the powerhouse Patriots team that has run roughshod over the entire AFC East field in each of the past five seasons, however. New England has often struggled to put up points with substitute quarterback Matt Cassel at the controls of the offense in the wake of reigning league MVP Tom Brady's devastating Week 1 ACL tear, while age and injuries have also rendered a once- mighty defense into a rather ordinary unit through the season's first half.
The Patriots have remained competitive despite Brady's absence and season- ending ailments to other key players such as safety Rodney Harrison and running back Laurence Maroney. New England hung tough with a desperate Indianapolis team on the road in its last outing, eventually losing a tough 18-15 decision to the Colts when ex-Pat Adam Vinatieri drilled a tie-breaking 52-yard field goal midway through the fourth quarter.
SERIES HISTORY
The Patriots hold a 54-40-1 edge over the Bills in a series that dates back to 1960, and have claimed 14 of the last 15 overall, including home-and-home sweeps in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007. Last season, New England recorded a 38-7 win at Gillette Stadium in Week 3 and routed the Bills by a 56-10 count at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Week 11. The Bills are 0-9 against New England since their 31-0 home victory to open 2003, and are 0-7 at the Patriots since last winning in Foxboro in 2000.
The clubs have also met once in the postseason, a 26-8 New England road victory in a 1963 AFL Division Playoff.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick holds a 14-3 record against the Bills in his career, including a 14-2 mark while with New England. Buffalo's Dick Jauron is 1-5 against both the Patriots and Belichick as a head coach, including 0-4 since taking over the Bills.
WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL
Edwards' (1725 passing yards, 6 TD, 5 INT) poised play under center was instrumental to Buffalo's outstanding start, but the intelligent sophomore has had his two worst games of the year during the team's current slide. He struggled with his accuracy in the Miami game, then threw two costly picks against the Jets that offset a career-high 289-yard day. New York did a very good job covering Edwards' top target, Lee Evans (35 receptions, 678 yards, 3 TD), with the big-play receiver being held to a season-low 41 yards on four grabs. With Evans likely to see more double-teams this week with No. 2 wideout Josh Reed (26 receptions) still out with an Achilles strain, look for the Bills to get tight ends Robert Royal (24 receptions, 1 TD) and Derek Fine more involved in the game plan. Royal had team-bests of five catches and 70 receiving yards in last week's loss, while the rookie Fine hauled in four passes for 43 yards and his first career touchdown. Edwards, who was sacked five times by the Jets and under constant pressure from Miami, also could use a little bit better protection than his line has provided lately.
While Buffalo's passing game has been battling consistency issues, New England's secondary has been beset by recent injuries that have hampered the club's effectiveness in defending the pass. Harrison suffered a season-ending quadriceps tear in the Pats' Week 7 win over Denver, while nickel corner Lewis Sanders (9 tackles) missed last week's tilt with a hamstring strain and rookie Terrence Wheatley was forced to an early exit due to a wrist problem. The Colts' Peyton Manning took advantage of the backfield's depleted depth by firing a pair of touchdown passes to slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez. With Sanders and Wheatley highly questionable to play on Sunday, New England signed one-time Bill Jason Webster off the street this week to help shore things up. The Patriots' 17th-ranked pass defense (212.6 ypg) hasn't gotten much off a pass rush from anyone other than versatile outside linebacker Adalius Thomas (31 tackles, 5 sacks) and perennial Pro Bowl end Richard Seymour (26 tackles, 4 sacks).
New England was able to shut down Indianapolis' anemic ground attack in last week's loss, with the Colts' Joseph Addai managing a meager 32 yards on 17 carries. Such a dominant performance hasn't always been par for the course this year for the Patriots, who are a pedestrian 15th overall versus the run (105.0 ypg). Rookie inside linebacker Jerod Mayo (59 tackles) racked up 11 tackles in the game and has quickly emerged as a valued playmaker, while second-year safety Brandon Meriweather (32 tackles, 5 PD) is showing he can capably fill Harrison's role as an impact run-stopper since taking over as a starter. The former first-round pick also leads the team with three interceptions.
Buffalo's running game was non-existent last Sunday as well, with the talented Marshawn Lynch (466 rushing yards, 6 TD, 27 receptions) being held to a mere 16 yards on nine attempts against the Jets' formidable front seven. The second-year back has had a hard time getting untracked all season long, having failed to rush for more than 83 yards in the team's eight games and averaging a lackluster 3.5 yards per carry for the year. Both Lynch and second-stringer Fred Jackson (223 rushing yards, 1 TD, 21 receptions) are good receivers who serve as reliable safety valves for Edwards, however. A line that has had its troubles opening up holes for the two backs would get a boost from the possible return of right guard Brad Butler, who's missed the last two games with a strained knee but resumed practicing this week.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
New England has done a pretty good job keeping the burden off of the inexperienced Cassel by establishing a consistent rushing attack. The Pats are averaging a very solid 131.6 yards per game on the ground (7th overall) despite having to mix-and-match running backs due to injuries. With veterans Sammy Morris (307 rushing yards, 4 TD, 12 receptions) and LaMont Jordan (106 rushing yards) inactive against the Colts, third-down specialist Kevin Faulk (272 rushing yards, 2 TD) and undrafted rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis (138 rushing yards, 3 TD) combined for nearly 120 yards to help keep Indianapolis' high-powered offense off the field. Morris is expected to miss a third straight week with a knee sprain, but Jordan seems to be nearly recovered from a calf strain that has forced him out of the last four games and may be available on Sunday.
While Cassel (1566 passing yards, 7 TD, 7 INT) hasn't been a liability since being pressed into duty, the New England aerial circus that shattered various records a year ago doesn't strike fear into enemy defenses without Brady taking the snaps. The fill-in triggerman has had trouble at times getting the ball downfield to dynamic wide receiver Randy Moss (38 receptions, 536 yards, 4 TD), usually opting instead for underneath throws to the sure-handed Wes Welker (56 receptions, 503 yards, 1 TD) or Faulk (25 receptions, 1 TD) out of the backfield. Cassel has displayed an ability to gain yards with his legs when pressured, but the fourth-year pro has also taken a rather high total of 28 sacks during his tenure as the team's field general. He was not brought down at all for the first time this season in the Indianapolis game, however.
There's a good chance Cassel won't be running for his life on Sunday, considering the Bills have generated only three sacks over their last four games and clearly miss the presence of two-time Pro Bowl end Aaron Schobel (19 tackles, 1 sack), who hasn't played since Week 5 due to a torn tendon in his left toe and has been ruled out for Sunday's test. Even with that lack of pressure, Buffalo ranks a respectable 15th against the pass (202.8 ypg) and has gotten solid play out of starting corners Terrence McGee (26 tackles, 2 INT, 5 PD) and Jabari Greer (34 tackles, 2 INT, 7 PD), who posted a 42-yard interception return for a touchdown in last weekend's setback to the Jets.
Buffalo will be without another top defender when it travels to Foxboro, as strong safety Donte Whitner (37 tackles, 1 sack) will miss the game after separating his shoulder last Sunday. The former first-round pick has been one reason why the Bills have yielded just 98.9 rushing yards per game (12th overall) through the first half. The offseason acquisition of three-time Pro Bowl tackle Marcus Stroud (22 tackles, 2 sacks) and the healthy return of rising star middle linebacker Paul Posluszny (57 tackles), who spent most of his rookie campaign on injured reserve with a broken arm, have also played a big part in the defense's noticeable upgrade against the run from last season. Whitner will be replaced by the serviceable Bryan Scott (21 tackles, 1 sack), a former starter in Atlanta.
FANTASY FOCUS
At least until next season, gone are the days when a Patriots' skill player was a near automatic inclusion into fantasy lineups. New England's most reliable performer over the first two months has probably been kicker Stephen Gostkowski, who figures to get a few more field goal opportunities on Sunday if the offense continues to struggle inside the red zone. Welker has great value in points-per-reception leagues but has just one touchdown catch, while Moss has been hit-or-miss all year long and is more of a second-tier receiver with Cassel throwing the passes. The Patriots' running back situation is always tenuous, with Faulk probably the safest play of the group. Those who picked up Green-Ellis off the waiver wire should pay close attention to the injury report. The rookie is a good bet for goal-line work, but only if Jordan remains inactive for another week. Lynch's frustrating streak of running for under 100 yards may remain intact on Sunday, but the Buffalo back's receiving skills and short-yardage abilities still make him a strong weekly option. Evans has consistently put up good point totals as the Bills' undisputed top receiver, while Edwards looks like a decent but not great choice at the quarterback spot.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
For the first time in ages, Buffalo finally has assembled a group capable of going toe-to-toe with a Patriots team that has had its way in this series during the Belichick era. As to whether the Bills will be finally able to come through with what would be considered a stepping-stone victory on the road, the jury's still out. Buffalo has to eliminate the critical mistakes on offense that have crippled the club in its two most recent losses in order to pull off the upset, as the defense is certainly good enough to put the Bills in a position to win it. Still, New England's veteran leadership and savvy game-planning gives the defending AFC champions enough of an edge in a contest that will be a whole lot closer than last year's meetings.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Patriots 23, Bills 17
