NFL Preview - Jacksonville (3-5) at Detroit (0-8)
Sports Network | November 06, 2008
(Sports Network) - It's safe to say that the Jacksonville Jaguars are suffering through a meltdown this season after going deep into the playoffs a year ago. The team was pegged by some insiders to supplant mighty Indianapolis in the AFC South this season, but unbeaten Tennessee is the one currently stealing all the headlines in the division.
Jacksonville head coach Jack Del Rio has watched his once-dominant team drop two straight and three of its last four games, two of which were against struggling Cleveland and doormat Cincinnati. Now Del Rio has the chore of keeping his players' spirits high for this Sundays matchup against the winless Detroit Lions at Ford Field.
That will be a hard task, since the Jags were victims to the Bengals' first win of the season last weekend after dropping a 21-19 decision. Like Detroit, Cincinnati entered the matchup with an 0-8 mark.
The Jaguars are 3-5 and tied with Houston for last in the AFC South. The club's running back tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor has been below average and the defense is mediocre at best right now. Del Rio has his hands full this Sunday, and another loss to a winless team would deflate any sense of hope of turning the season around.
Detroit is off to its worst start since a franchise-worst 0-12 beginning back in 2001. The Lions have lost 15 of its last 16 games overall and are coming off a 27-23 setback to Chicago in which they were held scoreless in the second half.
On the bright side, Detroit's four most recent losses have come by an average of 5.3 points after its first four defeats were decided by an average of 27 points.
Head coach Rod Marinelli may join former Lions president Matt Millen in the unemployment line or in hunting with Brett Favre after a few more losses.
In an effort to bolster their lineup and quarterback situation, the Lions signed free agent and former first-round draft pick Daunte Culpepper to a two- year contract on Tuesday. Culpepper may play on Sunday, even though current starter Dan Orlovsky passed for 292 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Bears.
Orlovsky sprained his right thumb during the game, however, and was wearing a protective cast during practice this week. Culpepper got some work in with the first team and Marinelli stated this week that he doesn't want to help his opponent by giving them one signal-caller to prepare for. He stated that "everyone will find out Sunday" who starts at quarterback.
SERIES HISTORY
The Jaguars have a 2-1 lead in their all-time series with the Lions, breaking a deadlock in the series with a 23-17 overtime victory when the teams last met, in North Florida in 2004. Jacksonville was a 44-0 loser in its lone trip to Detroit all-time, which came in the franchise's inaugural season of 1995. That game continues to rank as the most decisive loss in team history.
Del Rio is 1-0 in his career against the Lions, while Marinelli will be meeting both Del Rio and the Jags for the first time as a head coach.
WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL
Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard (1,771 passing yards, 6 TD, 5 INT) is not having the type of season he had anticipated back in September. After a highly-efficient 2007 campaign, Garrard has just six touchdown passes and five interceptions this year. He has been playing better the last five weeks, passing for 1,224 yards with five touchdowns and one pick for a 91.1 quarterback rating. His interception last week was the first in 166 pass attempts. Jacksonville is 20th in passing offense this season and hasn't gotten much from its wide receivers besides Matt Jones (45 receptions, 524 yards, 2 TD), who has five or more receptions in seven of eight games this season. He is still word on a possible suspension for an offseason arrest, but will be active for Sunday's tilt. Jones is aiming for fourth straight game with at least seven catches. Wideout Reggie Williams (19 receptions, 1 TD) has been a huge disappointment after a 10-touchdown season in 2007.
Lions defensive ends Dewayne White (37 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Jared DeVries (27 tackles, 2 sacks) will be applying the pressure on the elusive Garrard, who has been sacked 11 times in the past four weeks. White has a sack in five of eight games this season and 3 1/2 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception over the last four weeks. The Lions are 29th in pass defense (247.1 ypg) and last in the NFL in points allowed (239). Top cornerback Leigh Bodden (38 tackles, 1 INT) and stud free safety Daniel Bullocks (48 tackles) match up nicely against Jones, Williams and Jones-Drew on Sunday.
Not only does Jones-Drew (363 rushing yards, 6 TD) lead the Jaguars in rushing yards, but he is second on the team with 26 receptions for 232 yards. He had just 33 yards and a score on 10 carries against a poor Cincinnati defense a week ago, but has managed four rushing touchdowns in his last four games. Taylor (278 rushing yards) has yet to reach the end zone this season, and his lack of production is a reason why the Jaguars are 17th in the NFL in rushing yards (110.0 ypg). Taylor has no more than eight carries in each of his last eight games. Granted, the Jacksonville offensive line has lost a few players along the way due to injuries, but the backups are professionals, too.
Marinelli's stop unit is 31st against the run this season, allowing 161.8 yards per game on the ground. Chicago ran for 154 yards last week as rookie Matt Forte burned Detroit for a career-high 126 yards on 22 carries. The Lions have a tough job in containing Jones-Drew and Taylor, who is hungry to end his touchdown famine. Defensive tackles Cory Redding (24 tackles, 3 sacks), Shaun Cody (22 tackles) and Chuck Darby (11 tackles) are big and athletic enough to fill the gaps and leave no room for Jacksonville's running backs. Redding aims for fifth straight game with at least a half-sack and has three through the past four contests. Linebacker and leading tackler Ernie Sims (60 tackles, 0.5 sacks) had only four stops against Chicago.
WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL
Orlovsky (1,033 passing yards, 5 TD, 4 INT) will be monitored throughout the week as he nurses a banged-up thumb. He has passed for more than 223 yards in each of his last three games, with four touchdown passes and two interceptions over that stretch. Orlovsky threw for a career-high 292 yards and two scores against the Bears. If he is unable to go, Marinelli will probably hand the reigns to Culpepper, who had career highs in passing yards (4,717), touchdowns (39) and passer rating (110.9) in 2004 with the Minnesota Vikings. Culpepper, though, was slowed by a knee injury the next year and then started just 10 games over the 2006-07 seasons with Miami and Oakland. The top Detroit receiver is Calvin Johnson (37 receptions, 682 yards, 6 TD), who leads the team in receptions and has reached the end zone in four straight games. With Roy Williams now in Dallas, Shaun McDonald (22 receptions, 1 TD) has stepped up over the past two weeks. He had 65 yards and a score on six catches against Chicago and has two straight games with at least five catches and 60 or more yards.
Jacksonville was burned by Cincinnati backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for 162 yards and a pair of touchdown passes last Sunday. The team is 21st in defending the pass this season, and the loss was the eighth straight for the Jaguars that was decided by seven points or less. Safety Gerald Sensabaugh (36 tackles, 2 INT) led the club with 10 tackles against the Bengals and top cornerback Rashean Mathis (22 tackles, 2 INT) had a tipped pass and four stops. Mathis and fellow cornerback Brian Williams (44 tackles, 2 INT) will be in charge of containing Johnson.
Lions rookie running back Kevin Smith (305 rushing yards, 4 TD) is enjoying a solid first year in the NFL. He is not putting up Chris Johnson-type numbers as a rookie, but is picking up the system at a rapid pace. He had 37 yards and a touchdown on 14 touches against the Bears and has three rushing touchdowns over the past five weeks. Smith is one of four rookies to lead his team in both rushing touchdowns. He also ranks second among Detroit players with 24 catches for 162 yards. The Lions are only 31st in rushing yards (72.0 ypg) this season. Veteran running back Rudi Johnson (208 rushing yards, TD) will see limited action against Jacksonville as Smith's backup.
The Jaguars are 20th against the run this season even with John Henderson (26 tackles, 2 sacks) and Rob Meier (10 tackles, sack) filling the gaps. Henderson was ejected last Sunday for fighting, but should be cooled off by now to make an impact against Detroit's suspect offensive line. Rookie defensive end Derrick Harvey (8 tackles, 1 sack) had his first career sack against the Bengals. Del Rio, a former NFL linebacker, has one of the best in the game on his team in middle man Mike Peterson (48 tackles), but the veteran may miss Sunday's test as punishment for a well-publicized run-in with Del Rio during the week. If that's the case, fellow linebackers Daryl Smith (34 tackles, sack) and Justin Durant (27 tackles) will be the main ones trying to stop Detroit's run game. The pair ended with three and seven tackles, respectively, a week ago.
FANTASY FOCUS
Jones-Drew and Taylor should have good games against a weak Detroit defense, so they're both worthy of a starting nod. Jones-Drew is always a starter unless he is obviously out with an injury. Jones has been Garrards favorite target this season and will remain a go-to guy until further notice (i.e. suspension). Give the Jags' defense a shot this week, since it is favored in most matchups. As for the Lions, Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith are No. 1 selections most every week. The former is enjoying a productive 2008 campaign, while the latter has impressed during his rookie season. If Orlovskys thumb is healthy enough to allow him to start, don't hesitate to throw him in the mix if you're desperate this week for a signal caller. Culpepper is not even an option yet.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Jaguars desperately need a win on Sunday after having been unsuccessful during this stretch against weaker opponents. Jacksonville is still alive in the playoff chase, even though the outlook is bleak at this point. Expect Garrard and the Jags to protect the football and establish a rare passing attack that Detroit will not be able to handle. This should be a statement game for both Jones-Drew and Taylor, since the season is hanging in the balance. Another loss for Del Rio and a shot for a deep run into this postseason will be gone. Detroit made some headlines with the addition of Culpepper, but the stories will remain the same come Sunday evening.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Jaguars 24, Lions 13
