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49ers 2007 Campaign: Looking forward


So in light of the amazing show of awesomeness the 49ers put on display Monday, I thought why not look at the rest of the schedule.  I'm no longer angry at the team, but have been upgraded to just "put out."  As such, I may be a little snippy in this post because I honestly think this team could go 2-14.  Will they go 2-14?  I pray that doesn't happen, but suffice it to say, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

vs. St. Louis
Some of my friends have said this is the last game they should win.  I disagree and think even though it's a home game, they could get taken behind the woodshed on Sunday.  The Rams are showing signs of life for the first time on offense.  More importantly, even if they have a crappy defense, it really won't matter against the inept offense the 49ers possess.  By Sunday I'll probably be selling myself on the 49ers, but I really wonder if we can crack double digits in points the rest of the season.  After Monday it sometimes honestly seems like we'll never score again.

@ Arizona
They've put up no fewer than 10 points in any game this season.  If you combine the 49ers point totals for Weeks 4, 5 and 10 (bye week NOT included), you get 10 points total.  You do that math.  After a 3-game stumble, Kurt Warner got the Cardinals offense going against a solid Detroit team (didn't know when I'd ever say that again) and while I like our defense, if we hold them to 17 like we did in Week 1, I'm thinking we'll lose.  Speaking of Week 1 (and Week 2), is anybody else baffled how we won those games considering the state of the offense now?  Did our crappiness not emerge enough at that point?

@ Carolina
I really actually am excited to see Steve Smith match up against our secondary.  I'm not so excited to see our offense take the field.  There was some arguing about the on-side kick, but I say MORE!  How about you fake to the normal side and then kick to where you've got 2 or 3 guys and really catch them off guard.  Normal offense doesn't work, so let's mix in some special teams.  And go truly Madden on them and go for it every 4th down.  I think our defense needs to start every drive 30 yards from their own end zone.

vs. Minnesota
It seems like Adrian Peterson will likely miss this game as he is out possibly out 4-6 weeks (although some reports say he could be back to practice sometime next week).  Chester Taylor was a force to be reckoned with before, so I'm not really sure what to expect come Week 14.  If Adrian Peterson is out or still rusty, this is actually a winnable game if the Vikings defense doesn't show up, as they failed to do Sunday at Green Bay.  This could also end up being a miserably bad game to watch as one team wins 3-0 or 6-3.  I think this is your lowest scoring game of the year (in terms of combined points).

vs. Cincinnati
They may be team turmoil right now, but the fact that they have an offense makes them a likely L.  Now that you add Chris Henry to their receiver corp and match him up with Shawntae Spencer, I could see our defense struggling a little bit.

vs. Tampa Bay
They'll have Pittman back to go with an emerging Earnest Graham and we get to see fan-favorite Jeff Garcia back in the house.  He's signed to a 2-year deal so don't expect him back in the Bay Area in 2008.  While the Bucs aren't a powerhouse, they've been solid this season, sitting atop the NFC South at 5-4.  I don't see the 49ers doing so well against contending teams this year.

@ Cleveland
This was a sure win in August and even into early September.  No way we could lose to the Browns, right?  Now I don't think we can beat them.  The Browns have passed the stage of being a flash in the pan and are officially a contender for a playoff spot.  How will the 49ers do against contenders?  See above.  Although, if we were ever going to break out on offense, this would seem to be the game considering the Dolphins scored 31 points and the Rams scored 20 without Steven Jackson.  More importantly for the Brady Quinn contingent here at Niners Nation, a chance to steal Brady Quinn and stash him in with the luggage on the flight home.  If Derek Anderson has been named to the Pro Bowl there's no way the Browns will miss Miss Quinn.

So not quite as many specific W/L predictions as I had planned but I think 3-13 is a safe bet.  I'd say we're bound to win at least one of those games, but that could very well turn out to be an exaggeration.  Considering the MNF performance, I truly wonder if we score anything more than field goals the rest of the year?  Maybe I'm exaggerating a bit, but I think it goes to show what we can expect.

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Hmmm
I think we can win all of these games. Don't ask me how. If you ask me how it'll totally shatter the alternate reality I'm meticulously contructing for myself. See, it's like a box. And when I step in the box, everything is the same except the 49ers are 7-2.

See, it's like a mirror. Where 2-7 is like 7-2. And 1-8 is still 1-8. It's like a mirror box.

It's a house of cards, though. I house of reflective cards shaped like a box. But the glue isn't dry yet. So don't shake the mirror box card house. Don't ask it how.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Nov 14, 2007 1:37 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't bogart that joint, HowTheyScored
2-14 means we just might get the first pick of the second round if Miami wins a few.

by Bob In Pacifica on Nov 14, 2007 6:56 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Miami win?
I don't see that happening...They'll be lucky to win 1 game.
Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Nov 14, 2007 7:41 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well....
ok I know Miami is bad but lets look at this we all know where the Niners joke of an O ranks but  winless yes winless Miami ranks 19th. Ok Ok now your saying but our D is good but once again lets look at winless Miami ranked 20th we are ranked 21st. The niners have lost games by 21,20,18 and 21! 6 of Miami's losses have come by 3 points or less!!!! Miami would kick our butts up and down the field right now! We're lucky we have 2 wins!!!  

by GoninerZ21 on Nov 14, 2007 11:57 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2-14
the only team we can beat is ourselves
Bring back the classic Uni's!

by wjackalope on Nov 14, 2007 7:37 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

49ers vs. 49ers
Could we even score against our own defense?  Not likely.  Although Smith would have quite a bit of time due to the lack of a pass rush.
Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Nov 14, 2007 7:42 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

49ers vs 49ers
All our defense would have to do is point at The Disease and he will false start.
jfainsf49

by jfainsf49 on Nov 14, 2007 7:51 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Story of Our Lives
A totally weak schedule against our best team in years and now we'll be lucky to make it out with a shred of dignity.

We will score touchdowns, but in the garbage time of each of those games. We will be a stepping stone for most of those teams, just a morale booster on the way to a real football team.

Anyone offended by watching a team of men get paid to get spanked, close your eyes now.

by LA49er on Nov 14, 2007 9:02 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Staley
Does it piss anyone else off that we've essentially traded a top 5 pick for Joe Staley, when we could have kept that pick and made a run at Jake Long?

This is poor draft management. Does this team forecast at all?

For a FREE NFL Draft Guide, check out NewEraScouting.com or email nesguide at gmaildotcom.

by MattMiller on Nov 14, 2007 9:22 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not really.
I may only be the minority here, but I'm not bothered by it at all.  Until Staley starts showing shades of Kwame in his 2nd and 3rd year, I'm okay with the pick.

by sfgfan on Nov 14, 2007 9:29 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm also not bothered
It was a great trade at the time. I don't like taking trades in retrospect, because it's so remarkably convenient. Also, I'm perfectly happy with Staley.

The only thing about it that bothers me is that the Patriots punishment included being stripped of their first round pick, but somehow they get to keep this one? Absolute joke of a punishment.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Nov 14, 2007 10:45 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well.
Perhaps it'll force the NFL to open their eyes a little bit and maybe change the punishment to something like "your first first round draft pick, regardless of who it originally belonged to."  Bottom line, to me, is that it's highly unlikely the Patriots are the only team to participate in these "Spy Games."  They were just the unfortunate one's that got caught first.  Hopefully the NFL will learn to be more stringent in these matters from here on out.

by sfgfan on Nov 14, 2007 11:02 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I mean
MLB has uniform nazis for crying out loud!  The NFL could employ more anti-spies/spy-nazis.

by sfgfan on Nov 14, 2007 11:03 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think they
or any of us, thought that the pick we traded would turn out to be top 5. And Staley is looking like he was worthy of the spot where we got him or possibly higher.  Although, maybe not.  It's hard to judge for a layman like myself how well he does in run blocking, which was Kwame's strength.  The run blocking has been piss poor this year.  No idea if those two are correlated.
Bring back the classic Uni's!

by wjackalope on Nov 14, 2007 10:46 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

top-5 pick
Hindsight is 20/20, so it's easy to get pissed about losing a potential top 5 pick, but I'm curious how many people honestly thought we'd have such a bad pick.  Maybe some did, but they're far a few between.  Maybe we weren't going to be a playoff team, but 2-14 or 3-13 didn't seem likely when the trade was made...At least that's my opinion.
Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Nov 14, 2007 10:48 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If..
If the 49ers had at least gone 7-9, which seemed totally reasonable at the beginning of the season, the pick would have been a middle of the round pick (maybe on the earlier part of the middle).  So far, Staley has done a very solid job, and I think he's played well enough to fall in that area.  No one (including Nolan and McCloughan) could have forseen the offensive line and play calling woes that have damned this team.

by sfgfan on Nov 14, 2007 11:00 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Secondary...
Don't get too excited to see Steve Smith against our secondary, because it won't be a fair fight.  Our secondary is above average, but even Nate Clements can only cover a receiver for so long.  Opposing QBs have ALL DAY to pass.  Losing Manny Lawson for the year really exposed a lack of depth on an otherwise solid defense.

Oh, and I agree about Joe Staley - he's going to turn into a good lineman for years to come, so I have no problem with the trade/pick.  The one thing you can't question about Nolan has been his drafts... he's done an amazing job when it comes to that.

by jaytierney on Nov 14, 2007 9:36 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

While I agree..
Hindsight is 20/20, but it does not seem like the Nolan regime does a good job of looking ahead and projecting. In my experience with the team I've worked with, we look ahead to the next year's senior class and see if there is a possible can't miss prospect. The 49ers knew they were going to be bad when they drafted Alex Smith, but in the next draft Vince Young (jr entry), Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler were drafted. The Willis pick was very good, but are we really that excited about Manny Lawson or Vernon Davis and his penalties? While it is too early to evaluate any of the Nolan drafts completely, it does not appear that any of the draftees are making early contributions, outside of Willis.
For a FREE NFL Draft Guide, check out NewEraScouting.com or email nesguide at gmaildotcom.

by MattMiller on Nov 14, 2007 11:19 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dude...BAJEMA!
How can you not recognize that Billy Bajema has been an IMPACT player!
Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Nov 14, 2007 11:26 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know...
I know the team sorely missed him this week.  Having him would have allowed them to use Vernon more on the outside.

by sfgfan on Nov 14, 2007 11:29 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nolan
He takes quite a few chances with his draft picks.  He takes players with worlds of potential, but that are still kind of raw.  Willis may be the most complete player he's drafted over his first three drafts.

I am really excited about Lawson and Davis still, mistakes and injuries be damned.  Lawson reminds me of Julian Peterson, but Peterson didn't blossom until later in his stay with the 49ers.  Davis was a physical freak of nature, but was generally raw in the sense of what an NFL tight end is.  Staley, this year's second first rounder is somewhat raw as well, but is very physically gifted.

As I've pointed out numerous times, while I may have preferred someone other than Alex Smith, I don't hate the pick.  I like Alex Smith, and I still think he can be just as good as Leinart will be.  Will the 49ers be able to help guide him to that level?  Well, that remains to be seen.

It's hard to project what's coming out ahead of time.  Who's to say Leinart wouldn't have gotten injured?  Who knew if Vince Young was coming out.  Who even knew much about Cutler before that season?

This year in particular, who would have thought they had a shot at a "can't miss" prospect?  Everyone (including the media) thought the 49ers would at least be a middle of the road team, which I feel is where Staley is justifiably worth (middle of the first round).  No one could have forseen a potential top 5 pick.

by sfgfan on Nov 14, 2007 11:28 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree
that drafting a QB when they got Smith was a mistake and a bad projection.  It was clear that Edwards was likely to be a good if not great NFL receiver and the following year would be a better QB draft, and they went with the "franchise" QB anyway.  Bad decision.
Bring back the classic Uni's!

by wjackalope on Nov 14, 2007 1:51 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cutler
Cutler was pretty well hyped as a junior, in fact I believe he was the SEC player of the year or SEC 1st Team All Conference.

Peterson was an immediate impact as a rookie, while Lawson struggled to find his place in the 3-4.

Now, I'm not saying these players cannot become Pro Bowlers. I just think that we should have seen glimpses of what the future holds in Smith, Davis, Staley and co. up to this point. Smith is in year three, which is the year that most QBs grasp the offense and the game slows down for them.

It's easy to blame the coaches, but the players play, not the coaches.

For a FREE NFL Draft Guide, check out NewEraScouting.com or email nesguide at gmaildotcom.

by MattMiller on Nov 14, 2007 11:41 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In all fairness
I've pointed this out before, but I'll say it again for the sake of this argument.  I know there is that "belief" that a QB should show who he is in year three, but Smith is one very special case.  Most QBs at least have the same SYSTEM (let alone coordinator) in place for those three seasons.  Alex hasn't had that luxury.  Even between this year and last, Hostler's offense differs some from Norv's, not to mention the approach to the game is different.

by sfgfan on Nov 14, 2007 12:04 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

how bad is bad?
For any given game, you have to predict a big fat "L".  However the odds are against even the horrid niners losing all 7.  Even if they have only a 10% chance of winning any given game, they have a 53% chance of winning at least 1 game.

I think a couple of those games they have maybe even a 30% chance of winning, so I suspect they will win another 1 or 2, on sheer luck alone.

According to FO, SF has the 32nd ranked Offense and 30th ranked defense.

They currently have the 3rd worst overall DVOA (worst is 2005 niners), and 5th worst offense of DVOA era (I think goes back to about 1996)

The punt team is BY FAR #1 (and that's not just volume, boys!)

by zenbitz on Nov 14, 2007 12:42 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah punting!
The punt team is BY FAR #1 (and that's not just volume, boys!)

(yeah, using it every chance I get)

Bring back the classic Uni's!

by wjackalope on Nov 14, 2007 1:53 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

More on Smith's Injury...
So on the same day that Nolan tells the media Alex Smith is "fine," Matt Maiocco writes...

http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/default.asp?item=699956

"Finally, Smith admits shoulder and forearm have been killing him"

I love this bit in particular...

"After all, the problems with Smith's shoulder and forearm have created two other potentially long-term problems for Smith: 1) His mechanics appear messed up as he tries to conpensate for the injury; and 2) With his poor play since he returned to the lineup, Smith's confidence has taken a major hit, as well."

As I said earlier, Nolan questioning Smith's toughness and basically forcing him to return early from the injury is when I officially stopped supporting him.  Nolan seems like a really good guy, but he needs to go...

by jaytierney on Nov 14, 2007 2:13 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmm.
I pointed out the blog entry in the comments to this front page entry.

In any case, it was Smith's call on whether he could have played.  It was his call on when he felt comfortable enough to throw.  You can't fault a guy for wanting to help his team.

I'm interested in when Nolan actually called out Smith's toughness before he got back on the field.  If you could point out these instances, that would be great.

by sfgfan on Nov 14, 2007 2:24 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Toughness
I'm not going to dig it up... Nolan questioning Smith's toughness was WELL documented, I believe in the days following the loss to NY and before the New Orleans game.

Smith is basically covering for his coach when he says the decision was all his.  Sure, it was his decision, but clearly there was pressure.

by jaytierney on Nov 14, 2007 2:57 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think it was the game before Smith came back
Nolan said that Smith was physically better but that he wasn't mentally prepared, something to that effect.

Nolan was wrong. Either he's completely incompetent to see how badly his quarterback is playing or he's lying about Smith's condition because he realizes he's screwed up carrying two backup quarterbacks who can't play at the NFL level.

This is the most important part. Quarterbacks get injured. This says that McNolan did not prepare for the season. We can argue about Dilfer, but once upon he did actually quarterback in NFL games. If Hill is incapable of playing quarterback why is he on the team? Perhaps the coaches who can't coach the first string are incapable of coaching the third-stringers.

This one is all on Nolan. He rushed Smith back, and he apparently did it because there is no one else capable of playing quarterback. I don't know if Smith is further injuring his arm, but he certainly can't throw accurately now. That's McNolan's fault. The lying only compounds it.

by Bob In Pacifica on Nov 15, 2007 6:47 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree
And I guess that's my biggest problem with Nolan this season -- I'd cut him a break if he'd just man up and admit when mistakes were made, but currently he's dodging just about every question that comes his way and he's also throwing Smith under the bus.

by jaytierney on Nov 15, 2007 7:33 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Confidence
I remember Nolan saying something about not having confidence that Smith was confident in himself...
jfainsf49

by jfainsf49 on Nov 15, 2007 7:59 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bee-Rows
Matt Barrows writes in his blog that before speaking to Alex Smith today, the media spoke to Nolan first.  In regards to whether or not anyone is safe on this team, Nolan says
"there's a possibility that every player on the team could be gone next year, including the quarterback."

He followed that up with saying

"he didn't feel bound to Smith even though Smith was his first-ever draft pick, going No. 1 overall in 2005."

Barrows also tries to make the differing opinions between Smith and Nolan seem like a coach-player "disconnect," which I didn't appreciate too much.

by sfgfan on Nov 14, 2007 2:40 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You can't see the disconnect?
I guess being a Giants fan all these years has numbed whatever sense you may have been born with.

by DraftQBin2008 on Nov 14, 2007 7:08 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Read it again, Sam
He never said he didn't SEE the disconnect being drawn. He said that he didn't APPRECIATE the disconnect being drawn. He obviously SEES it if he's aware enough to point the damn thing out. And for god's sake, Giants fans don't need any cheap shots thrown at them. It hurts enough for us right now to begin with. Above the belt, man. For decency's sake.
I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Nov 15, 2007 12:56 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Huh?
There's a disconnect. I don't appreciate the disconnect, but it's there. I actually am glad that it's out in the open.

What is is. I'm not following the Niners because they're good or even entertaining. I'm following now to try to figure out the train wreck. I think the problem is with the engineer.

by Bob In Pacifica on Nov 15, 2007 6:51 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Miscommunication != disconnect
A miscommunication is not the same as a disconnect.  Barrows' writing alluded to the idea that the QB and the head coach were no longer on the same page, when in reality one may be at the top of the page while the other is at the bottom.

Alex hasn't admitted to anyone that his problem goes beyond soreness.  That is what he tells doctors, and subsequently is all Nolan knows.  So yeah, Alex is at the bottom of the page, while everyone else is at the top.

by sfgfan on Nov 15, 2007 8:48 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Huh?
Any coach paying attention shouldn't have to be told Alex Smith was hurting... it was BEYOND obvious.  I mean, opposing players (Julian Peterson) said it was obvious, and yet our head coach had no idea?  No excuses, that's just pathetic.

by jaytierney on Nov 15, 2007 9:13 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As I pointed out in another thread...
As I pointed out in another thread, Smith (regardless of health) is the best QB they have.  You don't have to even try out Shaun Hill to know that.  If all the doctors AND Nolan got from Smith was that he's SORE, of course he's sore.  All players are sore around this time of the season.  This is not to mention that a grade 3 separation will probably still be sore, even if most of the range of motion has already returned.  So how is Nolan supposed to translate soreness to not healed?

Now if Alex told team doctors that his soreness didn't seem normal, then something else may have been done.  Team doctors, like regular doctors, are at the mercy of their patients.  If you don't tell your doctor your foot hurts, is he ever going to consider treating it?  If you break your bone, and they cast it up so that it heals, but you feel pain after it healed, will they know that?

Nolan (as with most head coaches) are at the mercy of team doctors, and what the team doctors know of the player.  Obviously, Nolan could have pushed the issue, but as I said, a "sore" Alex Smith who could still move and make some throws is better than any of their other options.

On a side note, this carrying on of one discussion in multiple threads sort of sucks.  Some of us have had to repeat arguments in multiple places, and links to one article are appearing in each, trying to make the same point.

by sfgfan on Nov 15, 2007 9:23 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To go on...
I think you're missing the point when you say all Nolan has to go on is what Smith tells him and what the Doctors say.  How about, oh, I don't know, actually watching him throw the ball?  His awkward delivery and mechanics were so obviously the result of him compensating for his shoulder that there's no excuse.

And I don't blame Smith for now basically throwing Nolan under the bus in return.  Nolan has pretty much been telling the press that physically his QB was fine, when anyone paying attention could see otherwise.  I think Smith is at the point where he realizes his career is at a major crossroad and knows Nolan is too clueless on the offensive side of the game to help him.  Nolan has set him up to take the fall to save his own ass and I think Smith has had enough.  He was subtle, but his interview yesterday implied a hell of a lot more than was actually said.

by jaytierney on Nov 15, 2007 11:12 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Words
I still don't see where Smith throws Nolan under the bus.  I don't see where Nolan is setting him up to take the fall.  Regardless of who says and who does what, Nolan and Smith are tied together.  Nolan knows this.  Smith knows this.  It's not coincidental that their contracts are the same length.

That is what I mentioned yesterday about not liking what Barrows wrote.  I'm as big a Kawakami hater as their is, as well.  It's one thing to report what's going on, it's another to influence the opinion of the public through your writing.  I guess it's a part of their job, and I'm a fool for wanting just a report.

by sfgfan on Nov 15, 2007 11:41 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nolan has lost the team
The team has no life.  No will to win.   The offense is totally lost.   The defense is just playing for a paycheck.    Unless the Niners match up against an equally "lost" team, they have no chance.  

by DraftQBin2008 on Nov 14, 2007 7:05 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

always the optimist
I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Nov 15, 2007 12:54 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here's the problem:
As long as Smith can't throw he's hurting them to be in there.

Meanwhile, the Niners can't get pressure on the other QBs. The only thing that they can do is increase the blitzing and leave the DBs out there by themselves and hope that between Gore and Dilfer they get a couple of scores.

Nevermind.

by Bob In Pacifica on Nov 15, 2007 6:54 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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