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Playoff Prediction Bracket: Scoring and Rules

::EDITORS NOTE:: These rules and scorings have been adjusted to reflect awesome suggestions seen below. If you're looking at some comment below and are all like "OMGWTF???" it's probably because a very reasonable change has been made.

-

So for the Playoff Prediction Playoffs, I thought I'd lay down the rules and scoring as I see them right now, and then take comments and suggestions on the rest.

Rules:

  1. Once we have the bracket for the week in place, e-mail your predictions for each game to Fooch no later than kickoff of each playoff playoff game, along with your tiebreak prediction which I will ask you about later.
  2. Any games that you do not e-mail your predictions to Fooch by kickoff will NOT be forfeited if you submit those prediction on time to the prediction thread yourself, but your opponent might take that opportunity to "price is right" your ass. So do it at your own risk.
  3. Once Fooch has the predictions for an individual head to head matchup, he can copy/paste them into the prediction thread as comments so that they are also available for me to score in both the head to head matchups and the overall competition, so don't worry about getting getting squeezed out of the "overall" playoff game if you choose to e-mail.
  4. Players will be seeded by their final ranking in the regular season prediction games, and the top 8 players will advance to the playoff bracket.
  5. If there are ties in the rankings (i.e. 2 number 3 seeds because of a tie), the higher seed will be determined by some means I'm going to ask you about.
  6. Week one of the playoffs will match players up so that the 1 seed paces the 8 seed, the 2 seed faces the 7 seed, and so on. Week 2 will match the highest remaining seed against the lowest remaining seed, and so on like that. Weeks 3 and 4 will be the Championship Round.
Scoring:
  1. For games in which one player chooses the winner and one player chooses the loser, the player who chose the winner will receive 1 point.
  2. For games in which both players choose the winner, the player whose predicted score is closer to the actual score, as determined by the same equation we've been using all year, will receive 1 point.
  3. For games in which both players choose the loser, neither player will receive any points.
  4. The player with more points for the round will win the head to head matchup.
  5. In the event that both players have the same number of points at the end of a round, the first tiebreak will go to the player who correctly predicted more winners for the week. If a tie still remains, the tiebreak will go to the player with the lowest total predictive score (the number that our prediction equation spits out). If a tie still remains, the tiebreak will go to the player with the more accurate tiebreak prediction, which I will ask you about shortly. If a tiebreak STILL remains, then god dammit both players deserve to move on and we'll have a nice head to head to head matchup in the next round.
Questions:
  1. How does this look to you?
  2. If there are seeding ties, how do you think we should break them? Obviously, this is pretty small, but I don't feel like "firsties" or "virtual rock paper scissors" are really fair.
  3. So for the ULTIMATE TIEBREAK! I was just thinking that Fooch should give one game for which the players will predict the total combined yardage, whoever predicting closer winning the ULTIMATE TIEBREAK! I think it's pretty unlikely that we'll get to a point where we need to use an ULTIMATE TIEBREAK! but I'd rather have some contingency in place, and a total yards prediction has precedent (in pick 'ems) and is simple.
  4. So, ummm... how do you feel about all this?
  5. Does anything not make sense?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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The ULTIMATE TIEBREAK! could be used Super Bowl Week during the overall competition in case there is a tie for first at that point.
I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Dec 21, 2007 3:55 PM PST reply actions  

Thoughts and Suggestions
Looking over it I just wanted to make a couple of comments.

As far as posting within the prediction thread: A person is more than welcome to just post their predictions there.  The reason I suggested emailing them to me is so that one person will not have the advantage of seeing the other persons pick ahead of time.  If a person voluntarily places their pick in the thread and the other person gets the advantage, that's the first person's own fault.  Does that make sense?  If you just decide to post your picks here, I see no reason to forfeit those games.

This question is for HowTheyScored: For tiebreakers to determine seeding, can you easily access how many games a person predicted correctly for the season?  If you can't no problem, but if you can that could be the tiebreaker.  If not, we can come up with something else.

For the ultimate tiebreak I like the total yardage from a game.  Would it be something like picking a random first round game and having them submit their total yards predictions for that game and that then applies the rest of the way?

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Dec 21, 2007 4:13 PM PST reply actions  

Ah
You're right. Having the games forfeited just for that isn't fair. The power is going to my head! I'd be a bad dictator. Or a great dictator, depending on how you look at it....

Anyway, that change should be reflected above. I made the edit.

About your question: It would be pretty tedious for me to go through and figure out how many games a person predicted right over the course of a season, and I don't really relish the thought of doing it.

And what I was thinking for the ultimate tiebreak was a random game each round, but you now that you mention it I think it might be simpler to do just one for round one that will carry over. I do think a new one should be done for the 2 week Championship round using the Super Bowl, just in case. Actually, since there are only 3 rounds, it would only be 3 ultimate tiebreaks anyway, and I like the idea of the tiebreak applying to the round it's played in. Do you think it would cause very much confusion if we just did one each week? I'd like to keep things as simple as possible while still being fair, but one each round just for the bracket doesn't seem like it would be too much to process.

What do you think?

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Dec 21, 2007 4:58 PM PST up reply actions  

tiebreak game
I have no problem using a different tiebreaker game each round.  It'd probably be a little more fair anyways.  If I don't make the playoffs I'll pick the tiebreaker game, but if I do make the playoffs we'll find someone who isn't in the playoffs to select the tiebreaker game for each round.

And I definitely understand it could be tedious to have to go through each game.  We'll think of something for it.

And nothing wrong with a little power...I consider myself a benevolent despot.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Dec 21, 2007 7:34 PM PST up reply actions  

could the seeding tie break
be something like # of first place finishes over the course of the season?  So by that I mean, we count how many times each person got 3 points for a first place prediction - make sense?
Bring back the classic Uni's!

by wjackalope on Dec 22, 2007 4:02 PM PST reply actions  

That makes sense
And would be a lot less tedious to do (that is, assuming that there's no sort of freak 8 way tie for first or something).

I'm still not quite convinced it's the fairest way (while the first place predictor predicts best more often, the guy tied with him predicts better more often... blah blah), but it's the best I've seen so far. Any more ideas, anybody, just for good measure? I'm happy going with this if we seem to like it.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Dec 22, 2007 5:41 PM PST up reply actions  

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