Can we talk Draft yet?

by Gob on Dec 27, 2007 12:29 PM PST Comment 19 comments

I know we've got one week left, and obviously I am pulling for a win, but I just love the draft talk that will heat up within the next month, so I figure we could get a head start.

Here's the best database of all mock drafts on the net, I think:

http://hailredskins.com/MockDraft.htm

Most of them have us taking a WR, DL, or OL. None have us selecting a QB, and I'm alright with that. I'd love to see those 3 positions taken care of within the first 3 rounds or so, and with a new/better Offensive Coordinator, I'm afraid that my expectations for 2008 will be the same as 2007, so who knows.

Of the Wide Receivers, I like Bowman out of OK St. a lot, Hardy from Indiana, Robiskie, Doucet, Sweed.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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draft talk

There is certainly plenty of time to talk draft. I'll certainly have more after the season finale, but in the meantime, check out Mocking the Draft, the SB Nation NFL draft site and New Era Scouting, written by the same writer of Mocking the Draft. I introduced it before, but our very own Matt Miller writes both sites and has scouting experience. I'm thinking Monday morning I'll have more to get us going towards the draft.

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by Fooch on Dec 27, 2007 2:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I have to say

I know. I really do know we need one. I know we need one and I know that our likely draft position is likely going to be in a place where the best player will likely be some sort of NT, but I'm really not very keen on drafting defense with the first round pick this year. Not if there's a WR halfway worth his salt when we're on the board, anyway.

The thing is, the defense is stable. Not havinga true NT hurts, yes, but the defense is actually stable. They are fantastic about as often as they are terrible and are generally at least average the rest of the time, and will have a load of talent coming back from an injury riddled year this year. Macdonald, Lawson, Moore, etc. Losing BY can't help, but I'm really not worried about the defense next year. Even in a 3-4 without a true NT.

What I am worried about next year is the offense. And the reason I keep saying "next year" is because the first round pick should be making some kind of positive contribution in year one. We can afford projects on defense right now. I really want to see this offense get figured out.

Obviously, that won't be happening with QBs, since the FA market isn't hot and a first round draft pick would be a big fat mess. Obviously it doesn't need to happen with TE or RB. Obviously it won't be happening with the O-Line (b/c 99% of OL are long term projects coming out of the draft, and because I believe there actually will be a halfway decent FA market for OL anyway). That means WR.

What makes me especially needy for that first round WR? Well, the FA market sucks. Unless you're really into Randy Moss. Or those ooey, gooey Patrick Crayton/Andre Davis types (yes, I know, they are two different types, but both of those types have second receiver ceilings, and we've got PLENTY of that crap already - excluding Arnaz Battle, who DOES have a ceiling as a second receiver, but who IS NOT crap, who is, rather, parc, or the opposite of crap for those who missed the whole "crap backward" thing).

So that sums up my feelings on the FA market for WRs. Sure, things can change between now and then, but I'm not enthusiastic.

I'm not sure I really have a huge opinion on any of these guys over the others, for the guys we'll have shot at. A few of the big guys make me drool on the basis of being big AND fast, but that means squat for actual scouting and analysis. I just loves me some bigs and fasts guyses. Not that these aren't nice prospects. There are a few late first round receivers who look very nice. I'm just saying no one of them really stands out to me heads and tails over the others. Not without doing more research.

But I do want ONE of them. And I want him healthy.

And I would like to draft a QB, and re-sign Hill, and generally stay away from the FA market there. But i wouldn't draft QB any sooner than round 3. And even then, I'd be happy waiting for round 4. Count me on the early Dennis Dixon bandwagon. The injury will drop his stock (and make him maybe more of a project than we need), but I think he's a bright kid with a lot of raw talent, great enthusiasm, and strong leadership, and I'm already preparing myself to completely lose sight of reality regarding any sort of "objective" bias.

Really, he may not be great shakes [I know, :(], but I like him. So I'll conduct that train while it's still roughly on the tracks. I also wouldn't mind a Brennan or a Booty for this spot as long as we're still talking that "round 3-5" range here. Though I'm not very high on Booty and don't have much of an opinion on Brennan outside of "he's ok," which is probably about right for what an opinion should be for mid-round picks.

With the rest of the draft I would like to see these positions addressed and scant others, in no particular order: DL, RB, OL, DL.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Dec 27, 2007 11:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Wow

That looks a lot longer online than it does in my head.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Dec 27, 2007 11:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

WR in the first

That's the thing that makes a pick at the bottom of the first round iffy. You're suggesting it's fair to assume that first round talent should be expected to make an immediate impact, and that a player the 49ers take at the bottom of the first should fit into that description. The thing is, I don't think that is a fair "requirement" of a first round pick. Certain positions are more capable of providing an immediate impact than others, and that's why I don't think it's fair to say a player taken that late should be expected to help out.

Without doing any kind of research, my mind seems to believe there haven't been many wide receivers that were picked high that have made immediate impacts. For example, Braylon Edwards, the player many of us here wanted the 49ers to take instead of Alex Smith, didn't start making his true impact until this year (granted, he didn't really have much of a QB to work with).

This past draft is another example of this. Of the wide receivers taken in the first two rounds, only two of them made any "significant" kind of impact. Even then, those two guys were regarded as the best two wide receivers in last year's draft (Bowe and Johnson). In my mind, drafting a WR is a lot like drafting a college hitter. It'll take them some time to adjust to the pro game (speed, intelligence, and feel), but they CAN get there.

While I agree with you that the 49ers seriously need some help outside (at wideout), I don't know of the draft is the best place to look for an "immediate" help. If an "immediate" fix is what the team is looking for out there, a trade may be the best way to go, but even then they'd be paying through the nose for one player.

With that said, I think the team's biggest issue is the offensive line. I don't think it's a coincidence that the last two games have gone well, and they happened to be two of the better games played by the team's offensive line. The 49ers are in the very fortunate position of being able to take an offensive lineman at ANY position along the line. They could take a tackle, and move Adam Snyder to LG. They could take a guard and play Snyder at LT. They could take a center and replace/push Heitmann. In any case, they have the ability to be very flexible of the type of offensive lineman they NEED to take.

As for the true nose issue. While I've been pushing it for quite some time now, I agree that the defense has shown that it could function without one. While they aren't very common, I don't think they're players that NEED to be taken in the first round. If one falls to the second or third (which I doubt will happen this year, as I don't recall seeing very many available to begin with), the team should definitely take a chance.

With all that said, I wouldn't complain if a WR was taken. I just hope that if that is indeed what happens, that fans understand a WR can't be expected to make an immediate impact. They require a little bit of patience and time, but they surely can develop.

My feelings going into the draft are in line with jtoj, though. A player on either line should suffice. My only caveat is that if they do decide to go defensive line, they should really avoid drafting another 3-4 DE, as they have plenty of those already. So I guess my "wants" for that first pick are ANY offensive lineman or a true nose.

by sfgfan on Dec 28, 2007 10:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Man

I use wayyy too many words to articulate a very simple point.

by sfgfan on Dec 28, 2007 10:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Rashaun Woods

would be my response to the whole "big and fast" thing.

It's tough for a casual fan to scout receivers, but I really have to stress caution when you're tempted to fall in love with these guys.

I'll take a Hines Ward/Wes Welker/Isaac Bruce type over one of those highly-touted physical specimens any day.

Also, Ashley Lelie.

by shleckothegecko on Jan 2, 2008 3:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

On our picks:

I think if we can get some sort or line player (be it OL or DL) with our late first, then hope that a good WR makes it to our 6-9 in the second, we should pull it. We could gamble like that. Not a lot of teams need another WR. Unless Sweed drops to us in the first.

Merton Hanks, 'nuff said.

by jtoj on Dec 27, 2007 11:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

or Kelly.

Merton Hanks, 'nuff said.

by jtoj on Dec 27, 2007 11:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

That's a good point. The first and second round picks won't be all that far away from each other. Somehow I constantly forget that just because our first rounder will be late the rest of them won't be late as well.

I'm still not too high on prioritizing defense like that, even though I know all the ways it makes perfect perfect sense, but I'd be a lot less down on some OL action with that first pick.

Thanks for reminding me of that little fact. It had completely slipped out of my head while I was composing above.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Dec 27, 2007 11:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

In order of need

O-line, D-line, QB

If we can find an immediate contributors for each line with our first two picks and snatch up Brennan in the third, the draft will have been a huge success.

by sven406 on Dec 28, 2007 9:44 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

So then

You're not feeling WR? Just out of curiosity, why not?

I'm actually not usually big on getting first round WRs because I think the talent difference between late first rounders and WRs through about the third round isn't especially significant (especially in a "hit or miss" sort of way), but this year I think the immediate need is so clear that I do want one early.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Dec 28, 2007 9:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Receivers

Mostly I am leery of using the draft to find a WR because the last several that the Niners have drafted in the first 3 rounds (yes, Rashaun Wood, Brandon Marshall, and Derrick Hamilton, I'm looking at you) have been failures (unless Jason Hill works out, but I'm not holding my breath).

Drafting a WR seems to be more of a crapshoot than virtually any other position, so unless there are no impact players available on the offensive or defensive lines, I say stay away with those top 2 picks. Darrell Jackson will bounce back if we get better QB play, so I still say lineman are a bigger need.

That being said, there have been a bunch of veteran WRs changing hands this year via trade, so I hope the front office is listening if there are any possibilities between now and draft day.

by sven406 on Dec 28, 2007 1:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Correction on Marshall

You mean the mighty Rasheed Marshall. I WISH we had Brandon Marshall!

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by Fooch on Dec 28, 2007 6:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Correction

Thanks for catching that. I actually meant Brandon Williams, but Rasheed Marshall is mighty as well.

I would also have exchanged either of them for Rasheed Wallace, although I'm not sure what position he would play...

by sven406 on Dec 29, 2007 8:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

WR before QB

the 49er O-line gave up 50+ sacks this season (that's horrendous). You can pin some of them on the QBs but mostly it's the fault of the line.

For me, in order of need would be:

1a. NT (interior d-line. If we run the 3-4, Franklin isn't gonna cut it; also there needs to be more depth)
1b. DE (still no pass rush, but we do get Lawson back)
1c. WR (Battle is a possession receiver, Djax is a possession receiver who can't catch, Lelie is a deep receiver who can't run a route or catch)
4. O-line (Allen is done, Harris and Smiley are gone; Heitman was awful this year)
5. QB (someone to compete with Smith)
6. LB (After Willis, this a thin group. Smith is too old, Ulbrich makes too much money and is not more than a backup/special teamer, which is all he is, Brandon Moore seriously disappointed this year and I don't think he has the drive to be a starter in this league.)

Lott's Prayer: Almost as many words as the Lord's Prayer, but the Lord wouldn't recognize any of them.

by Nosetackle Supreme on Dec 30, 2007 11:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Linebackers

Don't forget Lawson, who was injured this year but is very good.

by groug on Dec 30, 2007 4:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Two things...

I am not sure if a win--at this point, will effect the draft order at all. But a Niner win mixed with some other loses could make for a lower pick for the Patriots. Also, the Colts will likely rest their key guys. Maybe some of the voodoo that was talked about earlier this year will effect the Colt's last regular season game. Obviously, a Colts loss will effect our draft pick, I am just not sure to what degree, I guess it depends on how the other games play out.

I'm goin' down with the ship...

by jfainsf49 on Dec 28, 2007 11:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Plus they can't make the Super Bowl.

by cheno on Dec 28, 2007 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nothing decided until at least the combine

But for you QB hunters, I'd think that Colt Brennan's stock dropped a little bit yesterday. We'll see how he combines, of course, but his biggest criticism all year has been the weak schedule and you have to think people think the creaming to Georgia is at least a little telling.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Jan 2, 2008 11:26 AM PST reply actions 0 recs