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Joe Staley Scouting Report


I'd like to thank John Morgan from Field Gulls, and a frequent contributor here for putting together a review of Joe Staley. Morgan has been keeping an eye on him and is most definitely a fan of the deal. Thanks again.

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The key to understanding why trading up to grab Joe Staley was such a coup for the 49ers is less about his talent and more about how the NFL draft is structured, but no one wants to hear that. So, first let's talk about his talent, because that, and not his contract, will be wearing the pads next season.

I'm sure San Francisco fans know Staley's story by now. He came onto campus a 225 pound tight end, bulked up but didn't lose speed and became one of the nation's top tackle prospects. Staley started 39 games for the Chippewas, that's a good indication of his pro-readiness. Staley is a little rough in his technique, but nothing like teammate Kwame Harris.

Harris is an interesting study into why a seemingly very good prospect can become a complete dud as a player. Looking over many scouting reports and combine performances, the one thing that seems to always portend bust is some glaring weakness. In Harris' case it was concerns about his body position on the outside rush combined with a poor showing in agility drills (7.98 on the cone). Harris also never posted a 225 bench number, benching a single rep 450 is all well and good, but NFL players' need fast twitch strength, explosiveness. It can be assumed that Harris knew his showing would have been poor and therefore eschewed the drill fearing it would hurt his stock. With that said, Harris posted a strong number in the vertical, 35 ½", implying that he has a very explosive leg drive--were he not so tall, he looks like he would make an excellent guard. A position where his power exploding off the snap would be an asset, while his inability to seal off the edge rush wouldn't matter as much.

While Harris is a dupe for the ol' speed rush to the outside, Staley has the agility (7.09) to wall off defenders. He also shows good explosion off the snap and the upper-body strength to deliver a jarring hand punch (27 bench reps). Staley is well rounded: Agile, quick off the snap, strong enough in the upper body and with long enough arms (33 ½) to win hand fights (poor explosive upper body strength (24) combined with short arms (32 ¼") and small hands (9 ¼") has been uberprospect Robert Gallery's undoing). He also doesn't have any questions about his effort or commitment to the sport, a major red-flag that's impact doesn't always show up early, but can stunt a player's long-term development.

Still, Staley will take his fair share of lumps as a rookie. Offensive line has perhaps the latest peak age of any professional sport, with Pro Bowlers regularly in their early to mid thirties. Staley has the well rounded skill set to one day excel, but you can expect some boners in the early going. If this trade can be knocked for anything, it's that if Staley is the presumed starter at RT, the Niners are once again at square one of an offensive lineman's development curve.

The real reason Staley is such a great pickup for the Niners is that he was attained with the 28th pick in the draft. Casual NFL fans assume that the lower a pick is in the draft, the more valuable it is, but in the modern salary cap era--that's just not true. On face value the Niners traded a, likely, high-teen/low-twenty pick for the 28th pick. In reality, San Francisco scored a potential franchise left tackle for 28th pick money. Left Tackle is the second highest paid position in the NFL, but Staley's contract will be set by his draft position. This not only means that he will be a bargain if he matches his potential, but also greatly reduces his risk as a bust. Prognostication is a tricky alchemy of careful analysis, gut feeling and luck, but good drafting is a skill. Even if Staley never becomes a dominant drive blocker in the run game (his presumed largest weakness) his downside, short of injury, is that of an NFL regular. An NFL regular at a premium position for the relative bargain of 28th pick money? Congratulations, Niners' fan, that's a no lose pick.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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Pretty similair to the Brady Quinn pick/trade logic.  If it pays off could be huge.  

by The Roach on May 1, 2007 3:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Quinn-Staley difference
I actually think it's different than the Browns trade up for Quinn.  The Browns dealt this year's #2 and next year's #1 and then dealt more picks to get back this year's #2 but didn't get back a #1 for next year I believe.  We moved down a little this year and next year but didn't give up a whole ton really to get Staley comparatively speaking...Just my thoughts on it.
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by Fooch on May 1, 2007 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree.
Theres a lot less risk in this trade than there is in the Quinn trade.  The 49ers essentially traded positioning to move up this year.  The Browns actually gave up picks.

Factor in that I think Staley is a safer bet to be a solid LT (which is a tough position) than Quinn is to be a solid QB (behind the Browns line, and with the Browns surrounding talent).

by sfgfan on May 2, 2007 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Contracts
Talkin contracts.  If Quinn turns out to be a starter, then for pick #22 money they got a steal.  Just like the tackle money for Staley.    

by The Roach on May 2, 2007 10:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't know...
Even if Quinn was a childhood Browns fan, I don't see him (or his agent) rushing to leave any money on the table.  I know contracts are usually structured by the slot players are chosen, but that structure can be strayed from.

Didn't Bush get more than Mario Williams last year?  I know theres not much difference from #1 and #2 (and that Bush was the consensus #1), but I can't see how Quinn (and his agent) will be willing to settle for #22 contract.  

I think the longest contract allowed for a 1st rounder is 6 years.  I expect the Quinn camp to accept no less than that plus $15M to $20M in guarantees.  Quinn was a consensus top 10.  The only reason he fell that far was because QB is probably the ONLY position you don't take someone if you already have someone just because he's still on the board (if that makes sense).

by sfgfan on May 2, 2007 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Smith/Rogers Contracts
I'm too lazy to do it, but go back and check the difference between those two.  Basically it was the same scenario and if I recall correctly Rogers got nothing compared to Smith.

by methodrampage on May 2, 2007 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Talent
Level of talent between Smith/Rodgers and Quinn/Russell this year are drastically different.  Quinn and Rodgers are not even close to comparable.

Just for knowledge's sake, Aaron Rodgers' contract:

  • 5-years, 7.7 million
  • $1.5M signing bonus, $3M option bonus, $0.6M roster bonus
  • Could escalate up to $24M+ if certain escalators/incentives are reached (approximately $11.25M in escalators and $5M in incentives).
I'm also in the camp that really believes the talent   (and potential success) difference between Smith and Rodgers was huge.  That difference isn't as big (if it exists at all) between Russell and Quinn.

by sfgfan on May 2, 2007 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Quinn contract
I think the best compromise for Quinn and the Browns is a moderately higher signing bonus than the #22 would normally get with the contract itself being a little higher but then including additional performance incentives that could bring it up to top 10 range.
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by Fooch on May 2, 2007 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Points debatable
There was talk that the Niners were going to go with either Smith or Rodgers.  And I think some people had Rodgers rated higher on their boards than Smith.  I honestly don't think there's a huge difference between Smith and Rodgers overall talent.  And we haven't really seem enough from either one to determine otherwise.

I also think there is a considerable skill level difference between Russell and Quinn.  I think Quinn rates a lot closer to Beck and Staton than he does Russell.  I just don't see Quinn being that good.

Alex Smith's Contact
6 years $49.5 million ($24 million gauranteed)

So by getting Quinn at #22 instead of #3 the Browns definately saved some cash which I think will help when Quinn ends up washing Dorsey's jockstrap next year.

by methodrampage on May 2, 2007 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Quinn won't get paid as much.
The way rookie contracts are structured only a certain amount of the salary cap can be put towards signing your draft picks. The lower the pick, the less money you can spend on them.

Or in the words of Wiki:

The NFL allows each team to spend a limited amount of money from its salary cap to sign rookies (including undrafted players). Teams with higher picks get a higher rookie salary cap allocation.

...

The drafted players are paid salaries commensurate with the position in which they were drafted. High first-round picks get paid the most, and low-round picks get paid the least. There is a de facto pay scale for drafted rookies.

There is not a ton of wiggle room there and that's why Staley and Quinn were both very smart signs for their respective teams.

Oh, and Cleveland should have a pretty dang good offensive line in a couple of years, so I wouldn't worry about Quinn.

by John Morgan on May 2, 2007 11:02 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

True
But couldn't that be circumvented like so many other things cap related, by the Browns and Quinn's agents building in bonuses or incentives that are easily attainable to make the contract better for both sides?  
Houshamazilly.....Championship

by gatling on May 2, 2007 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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