Vick Indictment via The Smoking Gun
Obviously this Michael Vick thing has nothing to do with the 49ers. However, as the details continue to emerge, this is clearly going to be the dominant story of the offseason and probably well into the season. If Goodell doesn't want to look like he's showing preference, Vick gets suspended.
The Smoking Gun has put the indictment up on their website and there is plenty of interesting information there. While there is definitely a decent amount of evidence in there, I'd prefer to not assume guilt quite yet. Based on past precedent I figure there are a couple ways this could go. I personally don't think a trial will happen with the case going as is, so the other options:
1) Vick pleas to lesser charges and gets off with probation/fines and/or maybe some light jail time, similar to what happened with Jamal Lewis
OR, the more interesting option
2) One or more of Vick's co-defendants turns on Vick and becomes a government witness in order to avoid jail time or reduce his own sentence.
I don't plan on making this a dominant story here at Niners Nation, but I definitely plan on keeping tabs on it. It's not often that the face of the league (or one of the faces of the league) is indicted on federal charges and faces a potential suspension.
In the meantime, please offer your condolences to our Falcons blogger Dave the Falconer at The Falcoholic.
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suspend him!
I keep hearing people say that the NFL has to wait until Michael Vick is found guilty in the dog fighting case before they can take any disciplinary action against him. This is bull-crap! They can suspend him for a few games (in my opinion, 4-8 games) even before the season begins. Here's why...
At the very best for Michael Vick, lets say that he is not guilty of these charges and didn't, in fact, know that dog fighting was taking place on property that he owns (not likely but lets say this turns out to be true). This is the very best scenario right now for him. The NFL could, and should, still discipline him on the grounds on negligence for owning property where dog fighting did take place (which is a fact) and by doing that putting himself, the Atlanta Falcons, and the NFL, into a position where they are being associated with dog fighting.
At the very, very least he put himself in this position due, if in fact he didn't know about the dog fighting, to his own gross negligence. That, within itself, should be enough for the NFL to suspend him for at least part of the upcoming season...and even before his case goes to trial.
For something like this, I think that it would warrant at least a 4 game suspension, but certainly no more then 8 games. I'd love to see him suspended for the entire season, but that's not reasonable unless he is found guilty (a verdict that wouldn't come until after the season anyways).
This is really the first action the NFL should take. It would be the right thing to do and would also help the NFL in what has already become a PR mess.
by coachAJ on
Jul 18, 2007 10:56 AM PDT
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Vick
I'm certainly not defending his actions (assuming guilt), but this is something I want to see play out more out of morbid curiosity than anything else. I'd like to hope he didn't know about any of these, but I just don't think that's the case. My own prediction as far as how the court stuff ends: Similar to Jamal Lewis, he serves some prison time in the offseason and gets some kind of probation. However, clearly this will leave a bigger mark than Jamal Lewis's drug deal stuff (which most people seem to have moved past). The big question is how this affects his relationship with the Falcons. I don't think they can just cut him or trade him due to his contract, so I'm not sure what they do now.
by Fooch on
Jul 18, 2007 11:16 AM PDT
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Vick
The guy is a good leader for his team. While he doesn't play the role of a "traditional" QB very well, he makes up for that with his amazing physical talents. No other QB EVER has been as elusive as Vick. Even in Steve Young's good days, he didn't have Vick's amazing speed, acceleration, and agility.
The guy is a good football player, and up until his recent brushes with the law, he really hasn't been a bad guy. In addition to playing a vital role to any of the Falcons' success, he has been a solid community icon in Atlanta for quite some time. So I ask you, coachAJ, why is it that you despise him?
by sfgfan on
Jul 18, 2007 11:41 AM PDT
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OVER-RATED!!
Listen, when Vick first came into the league and after his 2002 season, I was on the Michael Vick bandwagon. However, I jumped off that a few years ago. Vick has proven time and time again that he is not mature enough to be a QB in the NFL. Yet everyone wants to give the guy a pass and make excuses for him. "His receivers can't catch the ball." "He's in the wrong offensive system." Enough! How about we all just be honest and realize that he's just not smart or mature enough to be a QB in the NFL?
I mean, look at Drew Brees. He's nowhere near the athlete Vick is (not as strong an arm, or as fast/quick) but he's 1000 times better QB. Why? Because he's a smart guy and understands how to play the QB position... things Vick doesn't get.
Yes, Mike Vick is an amazing athlete...no debating that. But as a QB, he really sucks. Sure he's had moments of brilliance, but those are few and far between and he's just not consistent (lifetime completion percentage of 53.8% and a QB rating of 75.7) or mature enough to be an effective QB in the NFL. Yet people still defend the guy. So called experts are always making these dumb excuses for him. I just can't take it anymore. Its about time that people wise up and stop over-rating this guy.
Ok, enough of that. That's my Vick rant for the day. Ummm...there must be something for me to do here in the office today. Ummmm...
by coachAJ on
Jul 18, 2007 1:22 PM PDT
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Interesting
With the reins cut, Vick can lead an offense that's dynamic enough to win enough football games to get into the playoffs. Part of Vick's problem lately is that he hasn't been gettin much help from the defense. If you fall behind early it's going to be hard for Vick to lead a comeback with his passing abilities.
by methodrampage on
Jul 18, 2007 1:37 PM PDT
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Free pass? Overrated?
This criticism of Vick isn't just something that has come up last year or anything. People call him out EVERY July/August.
I mean c'mon. With the Falcons the way they are, offensively and defensively, it's amazing they've done as well as they have. Take the differences in their 2003, 2004, and 2005 seasons for example. In 2002, the Falcons went 9-6-1, upsetting the Packers AT Lambeau Field in the playoffs. In 2003, Vick only started four games and the team record was 5-11, with Vick going 3-1 in those four games. In 2004, with Vick back in the swing of things, the team goes 11-5 and makes it all the way to the NFC Championship Game. Michael Vick makes a huge impact on how well the Falcons play.
While he IS an unconventional QB, he's been a great leader for that team. He's very talented and just because he doesn't fit your mold of a QB, he shouldn't be hated. Overrated? I suppose he is, but don't hate him for being overrated, hate the media/NFL for telling you how great he is.
by sfgfan on
Jul 18, 2007 2:10 PM PDT
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Nope.
I've never seen him as a team leader. How could a guy with this questionable of judgment be a leader? I mean, seriously. And you forget, also, how good the falcons running game was during those seasons you mentioned. That's what carried them offensively. Sure, part of that was Vick running the ball, but his passing stats should be a lot, lot better when your running game is that good. I think the year their team got the NFC championship game (where they were blown out) the defense was in the top 10 that season too.
And finally...FINALLY...this Spring the media started saying that this was the "make or break" year for Vick. Really, they should have been saying that 2 years ago. I guess when you have that much athletic talent, you just get that many more opportunities then everyone else.
It doesn't matter now though. I really think this is the beginning of the end for Vick and if he is really guilty of what he is accused of then I hope he gets the book thrown at him and goes away for a long, long time.
OFF THE VICK TOPIC: Has anyone seen the 49ers 2007 Schedule Breakdown on realfootball365.com? They've done 2 of 3 parts so far and have the niners at 6-6 (optimistically) after 12 games, which means the niners would have to finish the season 3-1 to have a chance at making the playoffs. Interesting feature...
by coachAJ on
Jul 18, 2007 4:14 PM PDT
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Vick media critics
2006 Previews
2005 Previews
2004 Previews
2002 Previews
I skipped the 2003 previews, as Vick was injured before ESPN even ran their team capsules. The general consensus on Vick has always been that he's great running but bad when it comes to QB-ing. Among other things, his completion percentage and his comprehension of offenses have always been Vick's bug-a-boos, and media pundits have always pointed it out.
The media isn't the one giving him multiple chances, its the Falcons. The media praises his unique ability but damns the passing aspect of it. The Falcons, on the other hand, extend his contract and make him wealthy, hog-tying their hands with him. This past offseason, they had yet another opportunity to just bite the bullet and perhaps go with Schaub, but they won't quit on Vick and went one step further in dealing Schaub away.
As for the argument that with a running game as good as the Falcons' had in the past few years, you have to remember that Vick has accounted for more than "part" of it. By accounting for that many rushing yards (as many as 1000 yards last season), he takes away yardage that would have normally gone to the passing game (if he has thrown instead of scrambled).
by sfgfan on
Jul 18, 2007 4:42 PM PDT
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Well...duuuhhh...
and in a lot of ways the media is very much responsible for all the opportunities he has gotten. with the way they hyped him early in his career adn the endorsements, they've built this guy up so much as the "next best thing" in the nfl so what are the falcons to do but sign him to a long term deal?
again, i was on the mike vick bandwagon a few years ago too as i bought into the hype and marveled at his athletic ability. i don't blame people for that. i blame people who STILL defend vick to this day. its over...he's done. he'll never even be a good NFL quarterback.
the schaub thing was dumb. D...U...M...dumb. it looks like that will really come back to haunt them.
by coachAJ on
Jul 18, 2007 8:07 PM PDT
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Uh huh.
As for the media's hype being very much responsible for the chances he's gotten? Teams have their own experts. Teams have their own scouts, coaches and personnel evaluators. Why the heck would they listen to some ex-player, ex-coach, or ex-general manager that works for a TV network or newspaper? It's the team's money and the team's decision to believe a player has enough talent/potential to award him a long-term deal.
That's like saying just because the media touted Nate Clements as the #2 cover corner in the country, the 49ers HAD to go after him. Or the Patriots HAD to go after Adalius Thomas because he was the best linebacker. Teams dictate, pick, and choose who they sign, not the media.
It doesn't really matter what I say really, does it? You're just going to keep on believing what you do, and I'll keep on believing what I do. The discussion has gotten way off track, anyhow.
by sfgfan on
Jul 19, 2007 8:37 AM PDT
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Fooch...DPAR Question
But seriously, I find it hard to beleive that Vick is the worst starting NFL QB in the league. So what's up with this -6.3?
by methodrampage on
Jul 19, 2007 9:56 AM PDT
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Falco
by Fooch on
Jul 19, 2007 10:32 AM PDT
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Weird.
Perhaps PAR overvalues yards and completion percentage. It looks like there's a huge difference between the guys who complete 60% or more and guys who complete 55% or less. This is especially true if they don't make up for the difference in yards/pass or whatever.
Another possibility is that those PAR/DPAR calculations aren't factoring in the rushing yards he accumulates that would have otherwise (possibly) gone to the passing game. He rushed for 1000 yards last year (over 8 yards per carry) and two TDs. If you take 700 of those rushing yards and leave the TDs be, he would have had just over 3000 yards passing (on about 80 more attempts) with almost a 2:1 TD to INT ratio. It'd be interesting to calculate the DPAR of a QB that does that.
by sfgfan on
Jul 19, 2007 10:37 AM PDT
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Passing & Rushing
So I don't know. Seems a little weird to me. With a DPAR of -6.3 he has to be the worst quarterback money can buy, but I'm not buying the -6.3 DPAR.
by methodrampage on
Jul 19, 2007 11:11 AM PDT
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Yeah.
I'm with you, I don't buy it.
by sfgfan on
Jul 19, 2007 11:35 AM PDT
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That page...
by Skin Patrol on
Jul 19, 2007 2:41 PM PDT
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Interesting.
by sfgfan on
Jul 19, 2007 3:10 PM PDT
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I'm pretty sure they do
Passing DPAR + Rushing DPAR gives him like a 26.1, which would be good for about the 19th best QB in teh league, presuming ~0ish rushing DPAR for the rest of the quarterbacks, which is actually pretty accurate.
by Skin Patrol on
Jul 19, 2007 3:19 PM PDT
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Question concerning our gentleman's wager
by methodrampage on
Jul 19, 2007 3:25 PM PDT
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You pick, if it wasn't specified
As a favor to me, could you double check to see if I stipulated on rushing DPAR at all? I thought I was pretty exhaustive about the bet, but it is the kind of thing I could forget.
In any event, I'm fine either way. I think JC will be a better passer and rusher than Alex Smith next season.
by Skin Patrol on
Jul 19, 2007 3:29 PM PDT
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I looked back
So we're using combined DPAR (rushing and passing) plus the previous stips. I'll post this addendum in the original thread for reference.
BTW Jason Campbell is my super sleeper #2/#3 QB in fantasy football. Mainly because he never gets drafted prior to the 14th round when I take him.
by methodrampage on
Jul 19, 2007 3:37 PM PDT
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Question concerning our gentleman's wager
by methodrampage on
Jul 19, 2007 3:28 PM PDT
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Er...
by Skin Patrol on
Jul 19, 2007 3:20 PM PDT
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That makes sense.
by sfgfan on
Jul 19, 2007 3:36 PM PDT
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Also on that page....
Peyton Manning.
I haven't really seen more of an awkward running quaterback than Manning but I guess he's pretty good at it when he does lumber down the field.
by methodrampage on
Jul 19, 2007 3:43 PM PDT
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2005
2005:
422 passes
2232 yards (~5.29 yards/pass)
15 TD
13 INT (15 TO total, I think)
2006:
388 passes
2164 yards (~5.57 yards/pass)
20 TD
11 INT
The amazing thing to me is that his rushing numbers (from Pro Football Reference) was more effective (in the sense of averages) last season:
2005:
102 carries
597 yards (~5.85 yards/carry)
6 TD
2006:
123 carries
1039 yards (~8.45 yards/carry)
2 TD
Perhaps those additional 4 rushing TDs put his DPAR into the positives?
by sfgfan on
Jul 19, 2007 11:43 AM PDT
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Total Touchdowns
by methodrampage on
Jul 19, 2007 12:08 PM PDT
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The reason
Moving from that, just look at his NON-Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement for the two years (PAR). In 2005 his PAR was -.2, but that moves up to 12.9 because he played a bunch of really tough defenses. In 2006 his PAR was 3.7, better as a raw number than his 2005 PAR, but was moved down to -6.3 DPAR because he played against a bunch of weak defenses.
by Skin Patrol on
Jul 19, 2007 2:58 PM PDT
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I think...
Even with that factored in, I still find the PAR value to be kind of low. It's almost like they place a HUGE emphasis (perhaps too big) on yards per pass and completion percentage.
2006 Romo:
337 passes (~65%)
2761 yards (~8.19 yards/pass)
19 TDs
13 INTs (~1.46 TD:INT)
63.8 PAR
2006 Leinart:
370 passes (~58%)
2761 yards (~6.41 yards/pass)
11 TDs
11 INTs (1.00 TD:INT)
24.9 PAR
2006 Vick:
388 passes (~53%)
2164 yards (~5.58 yards/pass)
20 TDs
11 INTs (~1.82 TD:INT)
3.7 PAR
There is no way someone could tell me that Matt Leinart's stats (unadjusted to defense) were better than Vick's.
by sfgfan on
Jul 19, 2007 3:34 PM PDT
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That one I can't answer for you
As DPAR and DVOA are based on down and distance and situation, it's possible for a player to be statistically worse than another but have performed at a higher level. In the case above, it seems that difference is a bit more pointed than I would expect or anticipate, so I don't have any means of explaining it. Perhaps someone from FO could help.
by Skin Patrol on
Jul 19, 2007 5:19 PM PDT
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PAR and DPAR
by Skin Patrol on
Jul 19, 2007 2:40 PM PDT
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I'd agree
by methodrampage on
Jul 18, 2007 12:15 PM PDT
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What a total waste of time
by Nosetackle Supreme on
Jul 18, 2007 11:58 AM PDT
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state
by Fooch on
Jul 18, 2007 12:09 PM PDT
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Something worth considering...
Bottom line is there are a lot of ways this thing can turn bad and then really bad for those involved.
by Skin Patrol on
Jul 18, 2007 12:14 PM PDT
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Federal Government
Speaking to your personal feelings on how high or low dog fighting is in the realm of crimes committed, I think that's up to voters generally to determine. The Federal Government is not trying them for hurting poor wittle doggies, they're charging them with Conspiracy.
by Skin Patrol on
Jul 18, 2007 12:14 PM PDT
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Do you have a comment?
by mississippininer on
Jul 19, 2007 9:34 PM PDT
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underpriviledged
by mississippininer on
Jul 19, 2007 9:35 PM PDT
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Gallop polls
by mississippininer on
Jul 19, 2007 9:37 PM PDT
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