Shaun Hill Contract Bonanza: Predictions Welcome

by Fooch on Jan 7, 2008 11:21 PM PST in News Comment 19 comments

We've reached the second major question of the offseason (OC being the first). What the heck kind of contract do you offer a guy like Shaun Hill? I am thinking of this because Matt Maiocco is reporting the 49ers have informed Shaun Hill's agent a contract proposal is forthcoming:

Paraag Marathe, the 49ers' chief contract negotiator, plans to present Hill with a multi-year proposal before the end of the week, he told Hill's agent on Monday. The 49ers don't want Hill to hit the free-agent market at the end of February.

"To their credit, they've been great," said Bob Lattinville, who represents the 49ers' newest folk hero. "They're getting to work on this early. I'm looking forward to seeing what the 49ers put together."

The 49ers and Hill have seven weeks to work out a contract extension. The free-agent signing period begins at 9:01 p.m., Pacific time, on Feb. 28. Until then, the 49ers are the only team that can negotiate with Hill.

Matt brings up an interesting point later asking simply: What kind of question does Hill deserve? Based on some opinions floating around the Internet, Hill should join the $100 million QB club. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess he will not be receiving that kind of contract. While making the league minimum, Shaun Hill played 10 quarters of football, completed 68.4% of his passes for 501 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT, a QB rating of 101.3 and was 2-0 as a starter. According to Maiocco:

Receivers appreciate Hill because he goes through his progressions quickly and delivers the ball accurately and on time. Offensive linemen like Hill's quick release and his ability to avoid sacks.

As with any free agent, Hill wants to maximize his guaranteed money since a player's contract can be cut so easily in the NFL. Personally, I'd expect an incentive-laden contract with a decent little signing bonus. The signing bonus can be spread over the life of the contract, which helps them with the cap. Hill gets upfront money and a chance to earn more if he can win the job. Of course, things are never that simple, but I'm of the opinion that this deal can be worked out quickly.

At the same time, I was trying to consider any comparable situation. Hill's agent discussed what they would be looking for in a contract:

Lattinville said he will treat this like a real-estate agent looks at comparable properties. He'll study the contracts of comparable players; he'll look at the other quarterbacks scheduled to be free agents and figure out where Hill fits in; he'll look at the increase in the cap; and then he'll arrive at a figure in his mind that he believes is realistic.

A little research and I came across a name I haven't seen in years: Rob Johnson. For those that don't recall, Rob Johnson was a 4th round draft choice of the Jacksonville Jaguars. In his first two seasons, Rob Johnson played in 3 games and completed 3 of 7 passes. Then, in 1997:

Wilson, who turns 80 in October, would rather stay put. He remains committed to keeping the Bills in Buffalo and to returning the team to its perch as a perennial AFC powerhouse. Which is why he didn't flinch when Phillips and general manager John Buffer approached him about going after Johnson. It actually was an easy sell because Wilson had watched the only start of Johnson's NFL career on television in the 1997 opener between the Jaguars and Ravens.

And what a start it was.

Playing for the injured Brunell, [Rob] Johnson completed 20-of-24 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns. Though hobbled by a severely sprained ankle that twice forced him to the sideline, Johnson also ran for a score and guided the Jaguars downfield late in the fourth quarter for the touchdown that clinched a 28-27 victory. That first impression made a lasting impression on Wilson. "I learned long ago that you can't win in this game without a strong quarterback," he says. "I can't say how this will pan out; nobody can. All I know is I have very good vibes about Rob Johnson."

That one game was hardly the extent of their research. They went deep into Johnson's athletic past, breaking down miles of tape from NFL exhibition games and Johnson's career at USC. They also conducted interviews with people who played and coached with and against Johnson. They liked what they saw and heard. Johnson is the prototypical quarterback of the '90s--big (6-4, 215 pounds), strong, athletic and intelligent. Though not quite as mobile as Favre or Brunell, he has enough elusiveness to buy time and make plays. And the right arm that convinced the Twins to draft him in the 16th round out of E1 Toro (Calif.) High School is capable of chucking a football downfield with authority or feathering it to a back or tight end--something he may be called upon to do often in new offensive coordinator Joe Pendry's ball-control attack.

The Jaguars proceeded to deal Johnson to the Bills for a first and fourth round draft pick and the Bills then signed Johnson to a 5-year, $25 million deal with an $8 million signing bonus. I think it's reasonable to believe Shaun Hill does not even get this kind of contract. I could see something more like maybe David Garrard. While Byron Leftwich was still the starting guy, David Garrard received a 3-year extension for $5.25 million in April of 2005.

So what does everybody think? What kind of deal do you see Shaun Hill snagging for himself and can you think of any other comparable situations around the league now or in the past?

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Personally

I would be VERY happy with a Garrard-like contract. Reasonable years, respectful but not dramatic price. I think it's awfully realistic, as well. Put me down for 3 years, $5.75 million (inflation! Or... something).

I would hope it doesn't go a whole lot higher than that, though if it goes significantly higher strictly on the basis of incentives and not guaranteed $, I'd still be pretty darned happy with it.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Jan 7, 2008 11:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

incentives

The incentives in the contract will definitely be the key for a guy in Hill's position. The 49ers face a fine line between offering him a realistic deal while trying to avoid insulting him.

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by Fooch on Jan 7, 2008 11:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Throw Hill a bone

Right now the Niners are toxic. I don't see any respectable qbs that would want to be a Niner at this point. Why would they want to play here? so they could get their jocks handed to them on every other set of downs.

That means the Niners are going to have to keep who they got.

Here is an easy way to settle the issue of who will start next season. Forget minicamps and preseason performances. Smith and Hill should have a bare knuckle fight to see who should man the helms. I am talking Van Damme style: knuckles wrapped and dipped in honey then dipped in glass. Let us see who has got the cajones to lead this team. Hee hee.

Alright so Goodell would more than likely have a problem with that, I mean that wouldn't make for good publicity. It may attract some ultimate fighting fans but again Goodell probably wouldn't see it that way.

In all seriousness, I don't think it makes sense to pay two qbs starter salaries. They should, however, throw Hill a bone. But not a very big one. I think somewhere between 1 to 2 mil would suffice.

Is a suit still considered a suit if it is made by Reebok?

by jfainsf49 on Jan 8, 2008 8:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I am the GM...sweet

This is what I would do. Of course it might just blow up in my face.

Despite Dilfer's poor performance, I think he should be groomed to be the next OC. Let him coach the quarterbacks for a year and be the 3rd stringer. Bring in an OC that will eventually replace Nolan when he gets the boot. That way in 2009 they can make dilfer the OC and move the 2008 OC to head coach. Problem solved. No more whinning about 4 OCs in 4 years or 5 OCs in 5 years.

Is a suit still considered a suit if it is made by Reebok?

by jfainsf49 on Jan 8, 2008 8:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Does the name Tom Brady ring a bell?

Give Hill Tom Brady style money, the guy has EARNED it! I've seen all I need to see that Shaun Hill is the next Tom Brady, so whatever he wants... Give it to him!

I'm kidding, of course. I like Howie's contract thought. But what I was curious about is the idea of Dilfer being an OC one day. He's a ball control kind of guy, which is probably okay, but he's not a risk taker as a QB... Would he not be a risk taker as an OC? To me, that kind of screams Jim Hostler redux. I like the idea of him maybe coaching QBs, but I don't think I'd even accidentally consider him to be the next OC, not without being loaded up on scotch and making a drunken promise.

Thinking of giving up sports and taking up heavy drinking.

by Drunken Miller on Jan 8, 2008 9:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Continuity

Some say that continuity is overated but I think it is important. That is the main reason I think that Dilfer should coach for the team some day. Surely he is well versed in the terminology and he has already spent 2 years working with A. Smith. No one else can say that except for Hostler so I see your point about him. But I guess if Smith isn't the answer then my idea is shot like one of Cheney's hunting buddies. Now where is that bottle?

Is a suit still considered a suit if it is made by Reebok?

by jfainsf49 on Jan 8, 2008 10:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Continuity Shmontinuity... I'm childish...

The flaw in this thinking is that Hostler got the job both by default and because he was pretty well versed in the Turner school of OC(D)ing. (The D in that last line has no point, I'm just random, as well as childish).

Plus, with a defensive-minded head coach, I think you want your OC to be someone who has the necessary experience, at some level, to properly take command of the offense. Dilfer probably won't meet that prerequisite, I think.

Thinking of giving up sports and taking up heavy drinking.

by Drunken Miller on Jan 8, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My one problem with this plan

Which, I mean, my preferences and feelings about what you propose aside... well, it just doesn't seem very realistic to me. First, Nolan still hires the coaches, so the thought that he'd hire the coordinator designed to replace him as coach and the QB coach being groomed to replace the OC WHEN (significantly not IF) that happens, well it sees a little self-destructive.

But then, when the new coach comes in he'll most likely want to bring in his own guys as coordinators. It might be harder to sign a contract with an OC who expects to become coach but knows he won't be able to hire his own man. It would definitely make the job less attractive. Planning something like this just pops up with a ton of complications.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Jan 8, 2008 11:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Overated...

I have always felt that being realistic is overrated...
+++

One of my problems is that once not too long ago I had a thought that was outside of the box. Since that time, I haven't been able get back in.

Is a suit still considered a suit if it is made by Reebok?

by jfainsf49 on Jan 8, 2008 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My Suggestion

I'd be comfortable offering Hill a 3 year contract with the following parameters:

Signing bonus: $3 million

2008 Salary - $750,000
2009 Salary - $1,250,000
2010 Salary - $4,000,000

This is essentially a 2 year contract for 5 million dollars (2.5 million per season). Of course there would be incentives Hill could reach if he was the starter for a majority of the season but I think it's more than a fair contract for a QB who has only seen limited duty in the NFL.

PT-42

by norcaldevilasu on Jan 8, 2008 9:43 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Low Balling Hill

Apparently all of you guys are low balling Shaun. Rotoworld stipulates that Hill will be looking at something like 3 year deal in the $12-15 million range. Not bad for a guy who's never made above the league minimum in 6 years and who has a total of 2 career starts.

Initially I liked the Garrard comparison but you have to look at when he signed the contract. It was back in '05 when he was viewed as being strictly Leftwich's back-up. Shaun is in a completely different situation as he's at least expected push Smith for the starting position. With that said you're probably looking at top back-up QB money to retain Hill, which I think he's worth. He did come off the bench and win the two games he's started and what more could you want from a back-up QB?

Let's look at some QBs that were in similar situations to Hill what kind of deals they signed.

Kurt Warner - signed a 3 year $15M deal in '06
Matt Schaub - signed a 6 year $46M deal in '07
Damon Huard - signed a 3 year $7.5M deal in '07
Sage Rosenfels - signed a 4 year $7M deal in '06
Josh McCown - signed a 1 year $2M deal in '07
Joey Harrington - signed a 2 year $6M deal in '07
Brian Griese - singed a 5 year $14.5M deal in '06
A.J. Feeley - signed a 3 year $7.2M deal in '07
Kyle Boller - signed a 1 year $3M deal in '07

and we might as well include Alex Smith's contract for comparison purposes

Alex Smith - signed a 6 year #49.5M deal in '05

It's obvious that some of these guys relate more to Hill than others but I think I at least proved the point that Hill shouldn't get anything less than $2M a year. I could see something like a base 3 year $7.5M deal with a $5M bonus if he becomes the starter. But I doubt he gets anything less than 3 years $10M.

I find the Schaub deal pretty interesting though. Because what exactly had he proved prior to arriving in Houston? He had 1 start, in 3 years, in which he threw 2 INTs, 0 TDs and had a passer rating of 35.4. Hasn't Hill already proven more?

by methodrampage on Jan 8, 2008 10:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Schaub

One thing about Schaub is that he was being brought in to be the starter, as opposed to "competing" for the starting job.

You do make good points though about the status of contracts and Hill's position. Something along the lines of the Huard contract could make sense. Of course Huard had close to 2 seasons of starting experience (over a 10 or so year career). Even when named the starter at KC, Brodie Croyle remained on his back until Croyle took over this year, so it is sort of similar in that regard.

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by Fooch on Jan 8, 2008 10:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Schaub, Huard & Boller

I understand that Schaub's situation was different Houston traded for him so that he'd be their starter so they had to pay him like a starter. I only included him because, well, he had only made 1 career start and sucked. Hill's made two and has looked awfully good.

For some reason I keep eyeing Boller's $3M extension thru '08 and it makes me think Hill's got to get at least $3M a year.

As for Huard, Rotoworld says he signed the deal in Feb of '07. And at that point I've got to believe that KC was hoping that Croyle would beat out Huard and be the starting QB. I mean Huard was just an after thought in '06 until Green got hurt. So Huard got a 3 year deal for basically $2.5M per but there's no way KC was hoping that Huard would be their starter for more than '07. So then ideally he'd be making $2.5M as a back-up to Croyle.

This brings me to my next point. What is the preferred end result of the Smith/Hill QB battle, from the 49ers front office point of view? Do they want Smith to win the starting job or would they prefer Hill to win it? I think we'll be able to read into their preference a little bit by the deal that Hill nets. If they want Hill to be the starter it's likely they'll offer him more money than if they'd prefer Smith to remain at the helm.

by methodrampage on Jan 8, 2008 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

starter

I'd guess they'll say whomever does best, but considering the money I'd bet they really want Smith to win it.

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by Fooch on Jan 8, 2008 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hard balling the Niners

I think if the Niners are going to pay Hill top dollar, they will be doing so just to keep him around. That is to say that Hill will not be starting at the beginning of next season and you can bank on that. The only way Hill starts the first game next season is if Smith isn't completely healed.

The reason I think that Hill doesn't have a chance is because of Nolan. Starting Hill would be like admitting he is wrong. Nolan would never do that. Nolan is only blowing smoke up our collective asses when he says that there will be an open competition.

Plus, are we forgetting who Hill beat in his two starts. I don't think we are low balling Hill. I think it is entirely possible that Hill is hard balling the Niners.

Is a suit still considered a suit if it is made by Reebok?

by jfainsf49 on Jan 8, 2008 10:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Smith and Nolan

I don't read the Smith and Nolan the same as you do. To mean they almost seems like their on the outs with each other. Nolan knows he needs to win and I've got to believe he realizes that winning in '08 is vastly more important that admitting he was wrong about Smith in '05. If he doesn't realize that they the Niners will probably blow again and Nolan's services will no longer be required by the 49ers.

Granted this should all be taken with a grain of salt as I'm a rooting for Hill to be the starter in '08 and not because I just don't like Smith but I think Hill is better than Smith.

But if you look at the numbers I posted above how can you argue that Hill is only worth $1-2M? $1M being a pretty extreme low ball figure, and $2M still being pretty low.

by methodrampage on Jan 8, 2008 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The market

Basically we are arguing over a difference of about 1 million, give or take. Hell, it ain't my money. Go ahead and pay him. If that's what the market demands.

I just think it will be interesting to see what other teams will be willing to pay for his services. My bet is that there aren't any teams that even need a guy like Hill.

The smart thing to do would be to go ahead and sign the guy for whatever price they can negotiate. If they were to bring in another guy or draft a rookie a year or two from now they will probably be facing the same situation--shelling out big dough for a guy that is pretty much unproven.

Is a suit still considered a suit if it is made by Reebok?

by jfainsf49 on Jan 8, 2008 12:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Contract

You guys have great advice, but I do believe that the 49ers must look into the future with this contract. A two or three year deal is to short and forces the 49ers to punt him or pay him quickly. The team is best with a 4 - 5 year deal, roughly around 1.25 mil a year over five years. Add 5.0 mil in signing bonus and he is scheduled to make 2.25 a year. The rest are all incentives that are easy to make. .5 mil for starting 11 games a year, .25 mil for throwing 15 tds, .25 mil for throwing 22tds, .25 mil for completing 60% of his passes (at least 200 passes). If he starts and does well, in translation the 49ers do well, then in year one he can make 3.5 mil in year one, if he stays the back up for a year, he makes 2.25 mil. Make the incentives increase over the length of the contract so that the next year he can make up to 4.0 mil, then 4.5, then 5.0. Figure if he plays all four years, I would hope that he was resigned in year three, then the man has a decent 4 year 17 mil, and if he is just a backup for a few the 49ers don't take the huge hit of paying him. He will be happy making 2.25 a year as a backup and he has a good chance of making 3.5 a year as a starter. If he isn't good enough to meet the incentives, well then he was a classic back up and the 49ers can put him back on the bench. I like this best since the ball is in his court to play better or not get payed top dollar.

by Gailikk on Jan 8, 2008 12:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs