Gerry Butler sent me this cool graphic. It shows each team's win total from 2001 to 2007. He color coded season to season variations thus:

 Green- Good Season immediately followed or preceded by a bad season

Yellow- Bad season immediately followed or preceded by a good season

Red- Bad season directly preceded by a good, then a bad, in that order.  Signifies a downward spiral.

Gray- Anomalies to the trend in both good (NE) and bad (Arizona, Detroit, Houston)

With "Good" and "Bad" seasons defined as:

Good Season- 9 or more wins (or playoffs.  Hard to determine with STL 2004)

Bad Season- 7 or less wins (8 wins if team won 11 or more games in the season preceding or following)

The ebb and flow of the NFL. Seattle will most likely end with two to four wins. Of the twenty five team seasons with four or fewer wins, fifteen finished the following season with a losing record, three ended at eight and eight and seven finished above five hundred. Only the 2004 Chargers won more than 10 games and only seven total won more than ten games in either of the next two seasons.

Seattle's last seven seasons have been special. Built on a well constructed offense and buttressed by a weak division. That run is over. Seattle is now building towards its next great team. That won't likely arrive in 2009. That won't likely arrive in 2010. Fans need to have a little faith. The NFL is cyclical.

Ten months ago I entitled a post Sign Mike Wahle. Two days later, Seattle signed Mike Wahle. There was much rejoicing. The move looked very solid. Wahle did not need to be a Pro Bowl guard to dramatically improve Seattle's offensive line. Moving Rob Sims from left to right and replacing Chris Gray improved two positions.

That didn't happen. Wahle, Sims and Gray are now all out for the season. Gray is enjoying paid retirement. Sims is cheap, young and still in the mix for right guard next season. Wahle, well...

Wahle had his moments in the sun:

The play is a sweep left with Mike Wahle pulling. Wahle is running up and wide, attempting to get in front of Jones and provide a lead block in the second level, but Wahle recognizes Patrick Willis breaking on Jones and cuts up field, engaging Willis. Wahle rides Willis, and Jones turns the corner. Willis - who is, if we can shed our homerism for a second, pretty damn awesome - disengages from Wahle and tackles Jones after seven.

At the snap, the Rams blitz seven. Walter Jones blocks hard in, Mike Wahle drops back but delays his pull, Chris Spencer pulls into the second level, engaging Will Witherspoon, and Carlson locks down Pisa Tinoisamoa. Julius Jones runs up behind Jones, Wahle completes his pull dominating Bartell, Jones cuts out, cuts back behind Tinoisamoa and enters the third level with only three to beat. His wending, 32 yard rush is a legitimate third gear from pay dirt.

And his false starts, holds and pass protection problems:

[W]hen Justin Tuck moved into the interior, it was on the defensive right side opposite Mike Wahle. Tuck handled Wahle, getting two play changing pressures of the instant variety. Wahle is not as good a pass blocker as Rob Sims and it shows. His feet are good and he's an asset in the run game, but all things considered, I sort of misses Sims' steadiness. People remember the big gaffes, but I watched Sims be a rock almost all season and the time he afforded Matt Hasselbeck was crucial for Seattle's passing game.

In ten games started, Wahle allowed 3.5 sacks. Quarterbacks usually avoid a sack allowed by a guard because the pressure typically arrives from the front. Wahle's 3.5 sacks allowed represents a fraction of the pressures, incompletes and quarterback hits allowed by Wahle. Over 26 games in the past two seasons, Wahle has allowed 8 sacks. That's a lot of blown block in pass pro.

The pass protection problems are real and with Seattle rebuilding, an expensive, declining left guard seems an expense unworthy of keeping. Wahle is guaranteed 5.5 million, all of which has been paid. If Seattle becomes the second team to cut Wahle in two seasons, it will be on the hook for more than 2.33 million in dead money, but will save 1.94 million in cap space. That doesn't seem much to save for a team without a true successor at left guard. Cutting Wahle, at least cutting Wahle before the draft, commits Seattle to either drafting a starter-ready replacement or signing another retread. Should that retread be talented, given the market for guards, he would be extremely expensive.

The smarter move would be to retain Wahle and attempt to restructure his contract. Seattle should have leverage given his recent injuries. Seattle needs an upgrade at left guard, but why limit its options in the draft? Why cut talent without gaining much salary flexibility? A cut would seem more punitive than practical. Don't cut Mike Wahle.

Let's shake off the food and booze haze and talk Hawks. A Sunday without Seahawks football felt lonely. At the same time, I can't stomach re-watching Thursday's tape. I hope to overcome that by tomorrow, because understanding a season requires autopsy of intestine along with heart and brain. A friend of mine who recently started scuba diving related why he'd never cave dive, invoking the image of smashing his headlamp, sitting in watery darkness awaiting suffocation or, for the optimistic, drowning. That's a non sequitor for those who missed Thursday. For those who watched Dallas extend Seattle's season point deficit to 95 in the coldest and most routine of fashions might wonder if they packed a dive knife.

So what it is. Should Seattle tank and take the sure top five pick or play for pride and escape the absolute cellar? It's an interesting question easily done disservice. Realistically, a team can't tank. It can't choose to lose for fear of injury, league punishment and permanently alienating its fans. The question is rather, should Seattle fans root for Seattle to lose out?

They won't overtake Detroit. The Lions are awful, have a two game advantage and face a difficult remaining schedule. With four tough games remaining, Detroit has an excellent chance of achieving 0-16. The Bengals are an easier catch. Assuming Seattle loses out, the Bengals would only have to win once in the final four to eclipse the Hawks. What Ohioan could foresee such consequences from kissing his sister? Kansas City also has a fatal flaw: a punishing strength of schedule. A quaint screwji written into the NFL draft breaks ties by awarding the higher pick to the team with the weaker strength of schedule. The battle between Saint Louis and Seattle should be decided in week 15 with the winner losing a spot in the draft while the loser considers rock bottom.

Seattle's a shoe in for a top five pick. The merits of keeping that pick make for a long, ongoing offseason discussion. The pick becomes more valuable if Seattle is slotted behind teams not interested in a quarterback. Historically, the first quarterback drafted significantly outperforms the second quarterback taken in terms of playing time and performance. Seattle is safe behind Cincinnati, Oakland and probably Kansas City, but could lose out to Detroit or Saint Louis. Marc Bulger is only 31 and isn't broken so much as disarmed. The Rams probably shouldn't but still might draft a quarterback. The Lions drafted Drew Stanton with their second round pick in the 2007 draft. Stanton can't seem to stay healthy and is currently sitting behind freelance sports agent Daunte Culpepper.

If Seattle is targeting a quarterback and unlikely to overtake its greatest rival for that position, it doesn't make much sense for Seattle to tank because it'll likely end up with the same options at five as two. And because Walter Jones is two years from retirement, still playing at a high level, and because the short learning curve typical of left tackles, Seattle doesn't need to target a left tackle. I shrink to type that, but I think it's true. Seattle, above all else, needs a quarterback of the future. It may never have a better opportunity. But rather than hope a Seahawks team that badly needs to show some life tanks, fans are stuck in the uncomfortable and detached position of rooting for opponent quarterbacks to show at all.

The best bet Seattle has at drafting Sam Bradford, and with each game Bradford looks more and more like the nation's top quarterback, is for Stanton and Bulger to play well. It's a weird and awkward position befitting this season. Whoever Seattle drafts will be risky and expensive. And I, for one, am not so much excited for this year's draft as dreading it. My hope, my sincerest hope, is Seattle can tempt the Vikings, near desperate for a quarterback but in line for a winning record, to swap picks. The Vikings may be emboldened after trading a first and two third round picks for Jared Allen. Allen has played well and Minnesota is charging towards a division title. A wealth of picks, collectively less expensive than a single fourth overall pick; a second round pick to trade for Brian Brohm, a mid first round pick to snag help desperately needed at guard--

I'm carrying on. Oh, the fantasy of the draft! If only the real draft were so sweet.

Seattle is 2-10. If it wins out - it won't - it could scrape to achieve 6-10. Realistically, Seattle will finish the season 3-13 or 4-12. Scanning the contenders, Seattle should draft as early as third and definitely within the top five. That certainly excites some. Maybe it shouldn't.

The first ten picks demand some of the highest salaries in the NFL. That burdens the worst teams in the NFL in two ways. A bust is a disaster. The contract forces teams to start unworthy players and often at keystone positions. Top ten picks must also be sufficiently better to justify their salary. That requires scouting accuracy I've yet seen.

There's an exception to this theory. Marquee players at positions that don't fall, mostly offensive tackle and quarterback, are typically very scarce past the top fifteen. Seattle needs both. So how should Seattle negotiate this draft: Target the best available tackle or quarterback, undertake a huge salary, but potentially draft that Walter Jones or Peyton Manning to build their franchise around? Or aggressively trade down, even accepting bargains, and stockpile cheaper picks while retaining cap flexibility?

These are the seasons that test our fandom. If you're still reading this site, you're obviously hardcore.

So what can we take from today?

Being fired up doesn't make a player play better. Sorry for the thousands who bought into some moronic revenge angle and started Julius Jones this week.

I'll leave the rest for another day. Happy Thanksgiving all.

Game Ball: John Carlson is an exceptional tight end. If he makes a second year jump typical of tight ends, he should contend for the Pro Bowl next season. When I watched him in college, I had no questions about his hands. So when he had a string of drops a few weeks back, I was sure it was a hiccup on the way to becoming a great tight end. Excluding a tip, Carlson converted six of six targets. His performance, especially in light of Seattle's terrible pass offense, is something special.

Feel Good Performance: Baraka Atkins with a tackle for a loss, a hustle tackle after eleven and hit on Tony Romo. He's coming along.

Discussion: Can Seattle properly give experience to and audition its young offensive talent with anyone under center other than Matt Hasselbeck?

Sunday represented definitive evidence that Matt Hasselbeck is in decline. No. There's a powerful counterargument that's as Anne as the nose on plain's face:

Washington's Starting Secondary

SS 24 Shawn Springs

RCB 22 Charles Rogers

LCB 27 Fred Smoot

FS 30 Laron Landry

Nickel and dime formations included:

CB 23 Deangelo Hall

That's as talented a collection of coverage defensive backs as any team in the NFL or any team of recent memory. It's an explanation that accounts for all of Hasselbeck's failures: the too generous spacing on passes, the long holds and double clutches, the interceptions, the incompletions, the pass defenses appearing on sure completions--

Well not all. There are the persisting problems of errant passes and the rest of the season. Let's play blind man. Let's say we want Matt Hasselbeck to be fine, in the midst of a late career swoon, but primed to bounce back. Let's start with the conclusion we want and find evidence to back it.

• The first four games can be accounted for by a poor and inexperienced receiver corps.

• The game against Arizona can be accounted for by the first week back from injury.

That's not terribly unreasonable. It certainly doesn't account for just how bad Hasselbeck has played, but the excuses are plausible.

The Cowboys' pass defense is predicated on pressure. Its secondary is not playing well. Among types of targets, the Cowboys are only above average at defending #1 wide receivers. At all other positions, Dallas is average or below average.

Seattle is thin at #1, but deep at all other receiver positions. Matt Hasselbeck's read seems intact. If he hasn't lost too much arm strength and accuracy for it to matter, he should find targets today. If he doesn't, if he again cripples his team with ineffectiveness, plays like he's hurt whatever news to the contrary, the time to IR him is now and the time to draft a quarterback of the future near.

Continue reading this post »

Before I get any farther, happy Thanksgiving for those who celebrate. I'm thankful for the Seahawks however bad, a job that allows me to do this and still support my family, and the fans who love this team and love football like I do. Thanks for reading.

We'll have a game thread up tomorrow, but I leave town on Friday. I can't promise much in the way of posts before Monday. Home teams do get calls, and I expect Dallas's holds to be forgiven and Seattle's interference to be flagged. I expect a better team getting healthy to pave its way to the playoffs through an inferior team playing out the stretch. And I expect Hasselbeck to play better or not make it through the contest. I'll explain why in a second.

Let's get to business.

Play Seventeen:

3-12-SEA 32 (5:23) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass deep right intended for 18-K.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 30-L.Landry [92-D.Evans] at SEA 48. 30-L.Landry to SEA 35 for 13 yards (20-M.Morris).

Seattle sets WR (Right), WR (Left), TE (Left), I formation.

Washington sets in a 4-3.

Washington blitzes six.

The blitz is mostly picked up, but Porkchop is struggling with Evans.

Matt Hasselbeck has three seconds in the pocket before he throws.

Carlson runs a square in.

Weaver runs into the flat.

Morris picks up Horton. (Good blocking game by Morris)

Robinson runs a curl.

The pocket is morphing left, Hasselbeck doesn't step up, but sidesteps and throws side armed.

The ball sails five yards in from Robinson.

Landry makes a diving catch for the interception.

Prognosis: An errant throw boomerangs as Landry shows his range with a diving interception. The weird side arm throw isn't new to Hasselbeck's arsenal. A superlative DB makes him pay.

Play Eighteen:

1-10-SEA 38 (3:19) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 20-M.Morris to SEA 42 for 4 yards (52-R.McIntosh).

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), 2 WR (Right), Rb.

The receivers are bunched tight.

Washington sets in a 4-3.

Inside left receiver Engram runs into the flat.

Inside right receiver Carlson runs a ten yard out.

Outside right receiver runs a China.

Morris runs into the right flat.

Hasselbeck reads left, middle, right and then underthrows Morris.

Morris picks from his shoe tops and is tackled after a net gain of four.

Prognosis: Morris is wide open and the underthrow limits yards after catch.

Play Nineteen:

3-5-WAS 44 (:32) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 83-D.Branch to WAS 33 for 11 yards (22-C.Rogers).

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), WR (Right), TE (Right), Rb.

Washington sets in a 4-2 nickel.

Engram, slot left, calls out opposing corner Springs' blitz.

Springs blitzes.

Washington blitzes five.

Taylor (Left) and Branch (Right) run slants.

Hasselbeck makes one read and delivers a strike to Branch's outside shoulder.

Branch catches, first down.

Prognosis: Hasselbeck makes his read, sees Branch's step and delivers a perfect pass where only Branch can catch, but where Branch can catch it without acrobatics.

Play Twenty: The "Wobbler"

1-10-WAS 33 (15:00) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete deep middle to 83-D.Branch (22-C.Rogers).

Seattle sets WR (Left), WR (Right), TE (Right), I formation.

Washington sets in a 4-3.

Weaver runs into the flat.

Carlson runs a post.

Robinson runs a go.

Branch runs a twenty yard square in.

Weaver is wide open in the left flat.

Branch has a half step on Rogers.

Hasselbeck looks off left, throws middle.

Matt Vasgersian calls it a "wobbler".

The ball does in fact wobble twice.

Rogers comes over top Branch and swats the ball away.

Prognosis: It's tight coverage and an incompletion isn't a huge failure, but the pass is disturbingly slow. Hasselbeck throws from the 46. Branch is at the 14. It's a 32 yard pass to the center of the field; a pass an NFL quarterback should be able to make.

Play Twenty One:

2-10-WAS 33 (14:54) 22-J.Jones up the middle to WAS 31 for 2 yards (48-C.Horton). 

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), WR (Right), Split backs.

Washington sets in a 4-2 nickel.

Weaver runs into the flat

Jones runs a center curl.

Branch runs a square in.

Engram runs a post.

Hasselbeck reads right, center, left, center and passes.

The throw wobbles once but finds its mark; Engram for 21.

Prognosis: It works, mostly  because Engram runs a pristine route, but for the second play Hasselbeck's throw hardly inspires confidence.

Play Twenty Two:

2-17-SEA 31 (8:03) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 86-C.Taylor to SEA 37 for 6 yards (24-S.Springs).

Seattle sets WR (Left), 2 WR (Left), SB.

Washington in a 4-2 nickel.

Washington blitzes McIntosh from the left and Smoot from the outside right.

Linebacker Blades buzzes right (offensive left).

Taylor (Left), sees the blitz, stops and awaits Beck's pass.

Beck underthrows Taylor.

Springs, playing safety, sprints from the third level and tackles Taylor.

Prognosis: The undethrow again limits yard after catch.

Play Twenty Three:

3-11-SEA 37 (7:22) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete short right to 84-B.Engram [48-C.Horton].

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), 2 WR (Right), Rb.

Washington sets in a 4-1 dime.

McIntosh and Horton blitz from the offensive right.

No one picks it up.

Horton hits Hasselbeck.

Hasselbeck throws it kinda near Engram.

Horton low bridges Spencer.

Spencer falls on Hasselbeck.

Prognosis: Not sure how they missed that blitz. Horton comes untouched without anyone missing an assignment. Horton plays linebacker via safety, so it's not like his intention were obscured.

Play Twenty Four: The End

1-10-SEA 22 (1:28) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass deep left intended for 18-K.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Springs at SEA 44. 24-S.Springs to SEA 44 for no gain.

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), WR (Right), TE (Right), RB

Washington sets in a 4-2.

Inside left receiver Engram runs into the flat.

Branch runs a China.

Carlson runs a corner route.

Morris runs into the right flat,

And Koren Robinson...

Prognosis: It's hard to know exactly what route Robinson was running, because he hadn't run it at the time of Hasselbeck's pass. Robinson looks befuddled and entirely unready. Hasselbeck stares down Robinson from the snap, and it's little wonder someone was ready to jump the route. This is play call confusion, and no matter how dire the outcome, not very telling of what's wrong with Seattle's offense or what's wrong with Seattle's quarterback.

Conclusions: Matt Hasselbeck's ability to throw short and mid, once the foundation of his arsenal, has declined so quickly it almost defies explanation. The short pass has haunted Hasselbeck all season. The mid range pass has been spotty, but never this bad. Hasselbeck is making some bad reads, but the greater problem is he's not completing the right reads he makes. He can no longer make "all the throws". Declining arm strength might explain his lacking velocity on mid range throws, but underthrowing receivers short could be rust or simply an aberration.

Mike Holmgren implemented a pared down playbook for much of the contest. It kept Seattle competitive. Did Holmgren do so to protect Hasselbeck? And if Hasselbeck is not fully healthy, why would he start for a 2-9 team?

I think Hasselbeck's lost touch and arm strength are symptomatic of his ailing back. If he's recovering, that will begin to return to normal over the remainder of the season. If it's not, and I don't see how playing football would expedite recovery, defenses will slowly narrow their coverage to where Hasselbeck can throw. Dallas should saturate the middle of the field, the half circle that extends twenty five yards in all direction from the pocket, and challenge Hasselbeck to beat them deep and on the edges. If they do, and, well, there's no guarantee they will, Hasselbeck could further decline. His effective range taken away, Hasselbeck will be forced to throw into coverage or take hits. For Seattle,the alternative is a continued emphasis on the short passing game. Dallas is superficially weak defending receiving running backs. If that's the lone weapon Seattle has, they will not continue to be.

Through eight passes, it's clear Matt Hasselbeck is playing poorly. What is not yet clear is how Hasselbeck played worse than his numbers. The next eight evidences how.

Play Nine:

1-10-SEA 28 (4:27) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 20-M.Morris to SEA 30 for 2 yards (54-H.Blades).

Seattle sets 2 WR (Right), WR (Left), TE (Left), Rb.

Washington sets in a 4-3, linebackers shaded left.

Matt Hasselbeck runs a play-action to Morris.

Seattle's wide receivers appear to "clear". That is, they run deep, but without observable patterns.

Morris slips into the right flat.

He's well covered by Blades.

Hasselbeck targets Morris for two.

Prognosis: The first in a disturbing series of nerfed pass plays. The play looks designed for Morris and though he's well covered, Hasselbeck dishes it to him.

Play Ten:

Image 1

2-8-SEA 30 (3:47) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short middle to 18-K.Robinson to SEA 44 for 14 yards (27-F.Smoot).

Seattle sets 2 WR (Right), 2 WR (Left), Rb.

Washington sets with five defensive linemen, one linebacker.

Washington, surprise, rushes five. Seattle picks it up ably.

Taylor and Engram each run go routes.

Branch, running from the right, runs a square in after 10.

Weaver runs into the flat.

Robinson, running from the left, runs a post route after 10.

Hasselbeck reads right, left, right.

Hasselbeck passes to Robinson. The ball is overthrown. Robinson makes a great diving catch (Image 1).

Prognosis: Hasselbeck's second longest pass play of the game was overthrown. Nevertheless, every quarterback gets a few bailouts from his wide receiver. Not an indictment of Hasselbeck, but further evidence that Hasselbeck's achievements were largely not his own.

Play Eleven:

1-10-WAS 22 (1:53) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 43-L.Weaver to WAS 14 for 8 yards (52-R.McIntosh).

Seattle sets TE (Left), TE (Right), 2 WR (Right), Rb.

This is a rare unbalanced formation in Holmgren's offense.

Washington sets in a 4-2 nickel. Fred Smoot is walked up along the right defensive end (offensive right). Washington is playing sides of the field rather than individual receivers. Perhaps an indication they foresee something tricky in the works from Holmgren.

At the snap, Seattle's tight ends and wide receivers again "clear".

Hasselbeck looks right, left and then passes.

Leonard Weaver runs a "stop" to the left. A stop is a route where the running back runs out and around the tackle and then curls some short yardage past the line.

Hasselbeck's pass connects with Weaver. Weaver runs for four.

Prognosis: Another nerfed pass play, which, combined with four play action passes in eleven pass plays makes one wonder what really separates the Seneca Wallace training wheels playbook from the Matt Hasselbeck professional quarterback playbook.

Play Twelve:  

1-8-WAS 8 (:44) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 89-J.Carlson to WAS 4 for 4 yards (27-F.Smoot).

Seattle sets WR (Left), 2 WR (Right), TE (Left), RB.

Washington in a 4-3.

Branch (left) motions in.

At the snap, Carlson blocks in.

Engram runs from the slot runs into the flat.

Robinson runs a slant.

Branch runs what looks like a "China": The receiver starts a drag but after 3 or 4 steps stops and turns towards the quarterback.

Floyd Womack and Walter Jones pull.

Carlson disengages the pile, turns towards the quarterback and takes two sweep steps offensive left.

Hasselbeck passes, Carlson overruns his blockers, the reception goes for four.

Prognosis: Another screen pass.

Play Thirteen:

2-4-WAS 4 (:35) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 20-M.Morris for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), WR (Right), TE (Left), RB. There's that imbalance again.

Carlson is positioned wide a ~yard outside Walter Jones.

Engram is within but recessed behind the resulting gap.

Deion Branch motions from outside left to the inside, creating a brief trips-like bunch on the left.

Snap.

Robinson runs a lazy route on the right.

Branch slants in, blocks.

Carlson pulls up, blocks.

Engram runs a "mean it" route left, blocks.

Morris runs up behind the line, curls left, receives Hasselbeck's pass and-

Runs behind a dominant block by Floyd "Porkchop" Womack?

You better believe it.

Chris Spencer falls, but Womack saves the day running a defender into the ground. Defender's name withheld to protect the victim. (Double agent Brian Russell, is that you?)

Morris lowers his shoulder and drives it into the end zone.

Prognosis: Another screen pass. Robinson's lazy route is all about the play call, no knock on his effort. Engram is the only receiver who really leaves it all out there on the route and block.

Play Fourteen:

1-10-WAS 45 (14:50) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 84-B.Engram to WAS 32 for 13 yards (24-S.Springs).

Seattle sets 2 WR (right), WR (left), I formation.

Left receiver Robinson is in the slot.

Washington breaks in a 4-3, left defensive end and tackle spaced wide, left outside linebacker challenging the resulting gap.

Engram is uncovered.

Play action.

Robinson runs a laggard shallow cross. I'm not thrilled with Robinson's route running or the consistency of his effort.

Branch runs deep.

Hasselbeck rolls out.

Engram runs a quick out.

Engram is uncovered.

Defensive end Demetric Evans pursues Hasselbeck.

Hasselbeck passes to Engram, Engram receives and runs for an additional eight.

Prognosis: Again, not an indictment of Hasselbeck, but he's asked to do the bare minimum on this play. Hasselbeck rolls right in vintage Alex Smith fashion and finds his Arnaz Battle, Bobby Engram, wide open.

Image 2

Play Fifteen:

1-10-WAS 32 (14:18) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete short middle to 89-J.Carlson.

The route (Image 2):

Washington sets in a 4-3.

Late pass to Carlson.

London Fletched lays the wood, incomplete.

Prognosis: Hasselbeck never looks away from Carlson. Washington's linebackers drop into the natural short zones of a Cover 2. The only hope for this pass is a quick, decisive delivery. Why Hasselbeck stares down Carlson before slow-delivering despite not being under pressure is a mystery to me. Carlson does his best to come back to the ball, but this play is hopeless.

Play Sixteen:

I'm not counting sacks, so we'll skip ahead...

2-12-SEA 32 (5:29) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete short right to 18-K.Robinson.

Seattle breaks WR (Left), WR (Right), TE (Left), I formation.

Washington breaks in a 4-3 with Chris Horton walked into the box for some reason.

Redskins blitz five.

Play action.

Morris attempts to get into the flat but is caught in the wash.

Weaver run blocks Horton for some reason.

Carlson runs a ten yard square in.

Robinson runs a beauty of a quick hitch: snappy, disguised and clean. Carlos Rogers falls attempting to defend it.

Beck makes one read, sees the down defender, delivers a strike and Robinson drops it.

Prognosis: That's nice. End on something positive. Tomorrow, Interceptions! Intrigue! The "Wobbler!"

What if I told you Matt Hasselbeck played worse than his numbers indicate? He did through the first half. After all, six for eleven for 38 yards and a score isn't that bad, it's positively Trent Dilfer-esque. But the writing was on the wall. Hasselbeck was playing very poorly and it was only a matter of attempts before he results caught up with ability. As you'll soon see, his successes were largely not his own, but he owned every failure.

This is a break down of the first eight passing plays. Twenty four passing attempts, three days until Dallas, eight attempts a day - makes sense, right? I've done my best to provide as much relevant information as possible.

Play One:

2-4-WAS 44 (12:47) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Robinson (24-S.Springs).

Seattle sets 2 WR (left), 2WR (right), RB. All four receivers are tight.

Inside receivers run flats, outside receivers run corner routes.

Koren Robinson beats Shawn Springs.

Hasselbeck underthrows.

Springs defenses the pass.

Prognosis: Hasselbeck has little deep strength. Add in the additional distance to the sideline and this ball is sorely underthrown.

Play Two:

Image 1

3-4-WAS 44 (12:42) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete short right to 83-D.Branch.

Seattle sets WR (left), 2 WR (right), I formation.

Washington in a 4-2 nickel.

Robinson runs a go.

Bobby Engram runs into the flat.

Deion Branch runs a fifteen yard square in.

Hasselbeck throw.

Hasselbeck overthrows (Image 1).

Prognosis: Well, Branch is hardly Randy Moss, so it's not exactly hard to overthrow him, but Hasselbeck needs to bring the ball down. The pass also has a ton of zip behind it. The combination makes for a very hard catch.

Image 2

Play Three:

2-10-WAS 16 (7:35) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete deep right to 84-B.Engram [99-A.Carter].

Seattle sets WR (left), 2 WR (right), TE (left), Rb.

Washington has four DL, it looks like a 4-3, but it's unclear.

Washington blitzes six.

Engram and Koren Robinson are running crossing routes (Image 2).

Matt Hasselbeck takes a five step drop, fakes play action to Morris, and overthrows a wide open Bobby Engram running to the right corner of the end zone.

Engram is covered by Shawn Springs.

Robinson's route is a little lax.

Hasselbeck targets Engram almost immediately after the play action. It looks like a designed play. Play action, no read and pass.

Hasselbeck is hit by Carter after the pass, but his throw is unaffected by pressure.

Prognosis: Hasselbeck overthrows a wide open Engram costing Seattle a touchdown.

Image 3

Image 4

Play Four:

3-10-WAS 16 (7:29)8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on SEA-8-M.Hasselbeck, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 16.

Seattle sets 2 WR (left), 2 WR (right) Rb.

Washington is in a 3-2 Dime. The linebackers are in the "A" gaps and the corners are walked up outside the defensive ends.

Washington blitzes the nickel and dime cornerback, but drops both linebackers and the nose tackle. It's a four man pass rush. (Image 3)

Seattle's pass routes look like this (Image 4):

They're mirrored.

Washington doesn't attain pressure.

Hasselbeck throws it out of the right side of the end zone and is flagged for intentional grounding.

Prognosis: The Redskins call the right coverage, the Obejectivist doesn't look for an open man and throws it away. Seahawks charged for intentional grounding on a throw away.

Play Five:

3-13-SEA 30 (1:50) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 43-L.Weaver to SEA 36 for 6 yards (96-C.Griffin).

Seattle sets 2 WR (left), 2 WR (right) Rb.

Washington in a 4-1 Dime.

The receivers clear, all running deep.

Walter Jones pulls left.

Leonard Weaver fakes block and curls under Jones.

Floyd Womack does not release from his defender.

Hasselbeck dishes to Weaver, Weaver follows Jones, but is caught from behind by Griffin.

Prognosis: Conservative play call almost works.

Image 5

Play Six:

1-10-SEA 20 (11:51) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete short right to 83-D.Branch.

 Seattle sets 2 WR (right), 1 WR (left), I.

Washington in a 4-3.

Play action.

Routes (Image 5 (Koren Robinson not pictured)):

One read, pass targets Branch (?), but is five yards wide right.

Prognosis: Wildly errant throw.

Play Seven:

2-10-SEA 20 (11:46) PENALTY on SEA-8-M.Hasselbeck, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 20 - No Play.

Seattle sets 2 WR (left), 2WR (right), RB. All four receivers are tight, right inside receiver is tight end John Carlson.

Washington breaks in 3-2, with Jason Taylor defensive left, standing.

Skins show a bunch of presnap looks. Walk the strong safety down, position London Fletcher over the left "A" gap and also drop Taylor down into a three point.

Seattle motions outside-right receiver Deion Branch wide right. Then it moves Carlson into a true tight end position offensive right. Inside-left receiver Koren Robinson is most the way into motioning wide left when Seattle is called for a delay of game.

Prognosis: Hasselbeck is playing spooked. Jim Zorn has his number.

Play Eight (A):

Image 6

False start Leonard Weaver.

Prognosis: Why the hell is Weaver in the slot?

Play Eight (B):

Time out.

Prognosis: Seattle is split in a rare five wide. The Redskins are in a 4-2 nickel with wide splits between the tackles and ends, the linebackers walked into those splits and the strong safety challenging the outside right. Hasselbeck sees blitz and calls time out. That's...troubling.

Play Eight (C):

3-10-SEA 20 (10:28) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete short right to 83-D.Branch.

Seattle switches out of that zany five receiver set and instead splits 2 WR (left/right), TE (left), split backs.

Washington breaks in a 4-2 nickel with the nickelback challenging outside left.

Left WR Deion Branch motions in.

Snap.

Here's the routes (Image 6).

Springs blitzes, Weaver throws a nice block.

Branch runs a drag, good shallow route, maintains speed while working through traffic.

He has about a half a step on DeAngelo Hall.

Branch is five yards before the first down marker.

Hasselbeck throws the ball to Branch's back shoulder, Branch slows, attempts to catch, Hall closes and Branch cannot hold on.

Punt

Prognosis: Bad read, bad throw; Branch drops a pass that wouldn't have converted the first.

Here's what I noticed about today's game: Thank God Stump Mitchell left town. Sorry Clinton Portis, this looks like your last great season.

Okay, so who will be Seattle's starting quarterback in 2010? The draft offers some interesting options.

If Seattle wants to go early, Sam Bradford looks like the prototypical quarterback of legend. He's a perfect guy to stash for a season and then suffer through growing pains with in 2010. The knock on Bradford is that he's only a two year starter and is surrounded by excellent offensive talent. Still, love his low sacks, high completion percentage and good athleticism. Bradford would require a top ten pick, so that would hurt Seattle's versatility and force them into an exorbitant contract. Too risky; not wild about this option. He could slide a little if Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy declare, but I doubt both will. I also doubt Mark Sanchez declares, because USC won't likely win the national title and because ten trillion dollars isn't better than being the man at Hollywood U. If he's there, I really like Sanchez and think Tim Ruskell would target him.

If Seattle's willing to slide a little, Curtis Painter make a pretty safe if a little less sexy pick in the mid to late first.

Beyond that, it gets interesting. There's a lot of rational reasons to love Chase Daniel. He's played insanely well in the tough as hell Big 12. He's the drafts best non-Tim Tebow athlete at quarterback, and he destroys the Lewan projection system: three year starter plus a fourth season playing off the bench and a 68.5% completion percentage. But there's also some quasi-rational red flags. He's short, probably shorter than his listed 6'0". He's also playing in a spread offense. Current head coach Gray Pinkel has been with the Tigers since 2001, and none of Daniels' predecessors touched Daniels passing stats. I'm leaving this one up for debate before I do a little more research, but another something, something HUGE, in Daniels' favor is that he's not a first round pick. For as much as a second rounder and as little as a second day pick, Daniels provides a potentially huge return and If he doesn't work out, the team's not crippled. That's not something you can say about Bradford, Stafford, Tebow or Sanchez. That first round pick could instead go to something more stable, offensive line, defensive line or safety.

A couple more names out there worth looking into: Cullen Harper, a good looking talent on a terrible team. Rhett Bomar - no thank you. Dan LeFevour, who I don't know much about, but has played mostly against inferior competition. Hunter Cantwell, who's a bit of a faded prospect.

However this works out, Seattle needs a developmental quarterback. I'm not saying all of today's passing follies were on Matt Hasselbeck, but even if he accounts for half, that's the worst he's ever played. There's some small chance he bounces back, but it's no longer an option to coast with one viable quarterback. Seattle needs to build for the future, and that doesn't include Charlie Frye.

Game Ball: Maurice Morris. If Seattle reloaded on the line, kept Morris, Jones and Duckett, found a coach willing to split the carries three ways, they'd already have a very good rushing attack. You couldn't find three more complimentary backs, but Mike Holmgren refuses to evenly distribute the carries. Morris is the best receiver and is good in the open field. Julius Jones is the best pure rusher, a good pass blocker and can receive. T.J. Duckett is more than a short yardage back, no matter how NFL teams have stubbornly pigeonholed him. Seattle has very little money and only one draft pick invested in the three. That's huge. They represent something to build around.