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Draft Tek Draft Review

For those that recall our pre-draft discussions, Draft Tek was a hot topic due to their continually updated 7-round mock draft.  Warren and Draft Tek happens to be based in Alameda, so we've had some discussions about this and that over the last few months.  With the draft completed, Warren has been working on putting together an analysis of the best and worst of the draft, including best/worst at filling needs and best/worst overall.  His metrics have the 49ers 5th overall for first round value and #1 overall for best at addressing their needs.

To quickly summarize Draft Tek's analysis of filling our needs (followed by my rebuttal to Warren):

  1. We scored big at receiver getting Hill and trading for Jackson
  2. We lost points for not grabbing a guard
  3. We gained minimal points for picking Staley
  4. We gained big points at defensive tackle and defensive end because they were need positions
  5. However, we virtually zeroed out at linebacker because of our lack of an outside linebacker selection (more on that in a minute)
  6. We gained points with Dashon Goldson and we lost points with Tarell Brown.
I'll preface my own comments by stating that I understand the attempt to establish a formula that can be applied across all players and teams.  As has been seen in the discussion about Alex Smith the last couple of days, that is not always so easy for football.  As Draft Tek is dealing with a large number of teams and players, it's easy to overlook some of the factors that would affect the 49ers individual score.  Some of the primary ones in my opinion:
  1. Even though Jay Moore played defensive end in college, he is going to be an outside linebacker for the 49ers, thus partially addressing that need and boosting our linebacker score.
  2. Although we grabbed defensive lineman, I don't think the need was necessarily filled as well as it could have been.  If McDonald ends up having knee surgery, combined with Jay Moore not being a true DE for us, we end up with no defensive ends this season from the draft.  As for Cohen, we've all realized he's going to be a backup that could eventually turn into something.  I personally am not holding my breath with him, but I hope he works out.
  3. While I understand the poor grade for not grabbing a guard, I think the 49ers deserve a little more credit for trading up to grab Staley.  However, for immediate results, we might not get them, which could apply to the Draft Tek formula.  If we're assessing this draft for the next 5-10 years then Staley has a ton of value.  If we're strictly looking at 2007, then obviously there's less value in the Staley pick for now (barring him forcing himself into the starting lineup immediately).
  4. Finally, even though corner isn't a huge need, I think the Tarell Brown is a very good pick based on the low risk and potential high reward.  The NFC West is loaded with big, quality receivers and you can never have enough corners.  Additionally, Walt Harris has to prove he can repeat last year's performance and Shawntae Spencer has to stay healthy.  If there is a breakdown at the #2 CB, Brown could prove quite useful.
In the end, all that matters is that the 49ers did indeed have a good draft.  I can see where Draft Tek is going with this and I think it's a unique take on a highly subjective topic.  I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on the analysis, about the 49ers analysis and the system in general.  Analysis is all the rage, so why not consider one more option?