49ers-Redskins Statistical Preview: The Bridge to Somewhere

Seasons greetings Niners Nation! I hope everyone's had a good holiday (whichever one you might celebrate)...

This week, the 49ers once again play a team that should (theoretically) be more concerned with offseason plans than the upcoming game. Throw in the fact that the Redskins, losers of 5 of their last 7, are traveling cross-country to play a meaningless contest, and you have all the makings of a would-be Niner victory. In fact, this game is so utterly meaningless for the Redskins that I'm going to stray from my usual spotlight on the opposing team, and instead focus on three things I'd like to see out of the 49ers on Sunday that will really get me optimistic about next season. But before I preview the Redskins game, I'd like to first quickly review the Rams game.

In many ways, the Rams game was a reverse Déjà vu experience. What I mean is that it sure seemed like last Sunday was the same game that was played the previous week at Miami, except this time the Niners were the Dolphins and the Rams were the Niners. Think about it. Against Miami, the Niners basically dominated the game, but because of poor performance in the red zone and at the end of the game, they lost. Against St. Louis, on the other hand, it was the Rams that dominated the game but lost because of poor red zone and end-of-game performance. More bizarro symmetry exists when you consider the 49ers had to settle for three field goals against the Dolphins, and the Rams had to settle for three field goals against the 49ers. So what changed from Week 15 to Week 16? The opponent, of course. The Dolphins were top 8 in red zone offense and defense, as well as in late and close games, whereas the Rams...well, the Rams are just awful in those two situations, as evidenced by the following Nostradamian pregame analysis:

Two situations where [the 49ers and Rams] are seriously lacking just happen to be two of the most important when it comes to winning: red zone and games that are late and close. Luckily, the Rams are epically failing [...]. The Rams' are 27^th or worse in overall red zone offense (32^nd) and defense (29^th) [...], second half offense (32^nd) and defense (29^th), and late and close offense (32^nd) and defense (29^th).

Man, I love it when the stats tell us in advance what's going to happen. Of course, like Titanic, it's much less interesting to watch when you know the outcome already (Note: That was tongue-in-cheek self-promotion by the way).

Anyway, on to the Redskins preview. As I alluded to earlier, this game presents the 49ers with an opportunity to demonstrate whether three trends (coincidences?) under Mike Singletary are flukes or causes for optimism in 2009. It's these three things that I'll be watching for during the game on Sunday:

• Beating or nearly beating a team that has at least a 25% total DVOA advantage over the Niners
• Winning a game despite being outplayed according to DVOA
• The emergence of Jason Hill as a viable option in the passing game

After the jump, I'll detail each of these, discuss the 49ers-Redskins DVOA an SVW matchups, and then give my final game prediction of the season...

TWO IS A COINCIDENCE, THREE IS A TREND

The first thing I'll be looking for is another game effort by the 49ers against a team that is clearly more efficient than they are. So far, there's been two such games under Singletary, Week 10 at Arizona and Week 14 vs. the Jets. As the saying goes, though, two is a coincidence, but three is a trend. As you'll see in the DVOA matchup a little later, the Redskins have a 27.8% total DVOA advantage over the Niners this week. Beating teams that were that much better, regardless of whether it was at home or on the road, was not exactly a strong suit when Mike Nolan was the head coach, especially this season (See @ NO, vs. PHI, @ NYG).

‘TIS BETTER TO HAVE PLAYED WELL AND LOST...?

This one's a rehash of a previous debate we've had in the comments section, but I'm still undecided as to whether it's better to consistently get outplayed and win, or consistently outplay other teams and lose. Last week against the Rams (-69.9%) marked the 5^th consecutive game that Singletary's 49ers were outplayed according to DVOA, and yet they've won 3 of those 5 games. I'm not sure whether this is a good or bad thing, but I'm thinking that, at the very least, it's building much-needed success-derived confidence amongst the players.

MAKING A MOUNTAIN OUT OF MORE HILL

Pop quiz question 1...What game did Jason Hill make his first reception of the season? If you guessed Week 8 against the Seahawks, you're right. Pop quiz question 2...What also happened Week 8 against the Seahawks? Mike Singletary coached his first game of course. So basically, Hill had 0 catches in 4 games under Nolan, whereas he's had 27 catches in 8 games under Singletary. Granted, he was hurt a bit in the beginning of the season, and 3.4 catches per game is not Honolulu-worthy, but something is most definitely better than nothing. To me, if Hill can continue to emerge, and perhaps make that 3^rd-year leap that many elite WRs make, the 2009 49ers will be a definite playoff contender...at least in my mind. The fact that Singletary's tenure has coincided with Hill's increase in production makes me optimistic on this front.

49ERS-REDSKINS DVOA MATCHUP

Here's how the 49ers stack up against the Redskins in terms of DVOA:

A couple of things here...First, we have yet another awesome matchup for the Niners special teams. Hopefully, they don't lay an egg like they have in previous games against horrible special teams units (See @ MIA and @ DAL). Second, the Niners are at a nearly identical (and moderate) disadvantage on both offense and defense. Finally, although the Redskins total DVOA is positive, their weighted DVOA, which places increased emphasis on recent performance, is actually negative (-1.5%). This supports my "vulnerable opponent playing a meaningless game" hypothesis. Basically, the Niners have a real good shot to win this game when it comes to DVOA.

THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS

The four SVWs to focus on during this week's 49ers-Redskins matchup are detailed below:

Another week in which the Niners have no SWVs in their favor. Oh well. We shall overcome! Overall, these SVWs reinforce the basic idea that the 49ers are at a moderate disadvantage when they're on offense.

"WITH HIGH HOPE FOR THE FUTURE, NO PREDICTION IS VENTURED." - ABRAHAM LINCOLN

The Redskins are the better team, but they've been playing poorly of late, and really should be totally uninterested in this game. Therefore, my last prediction of the season is an optimistic one.

**DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.