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Is Mel Kiper full of it?

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I ask this for a couple of reasons.  I was wandering around the blogosphere and over at his blog Maiocco had a brief Q&A with Mel Kiper, Jr.  I'll throw down some of the info from his discussion of potential 49ers options and then go further into my Mel Kiper questions.

On 49ers first round pick
"If you're asking. 'Who's the best offensive tackle on the board at that point?' It's probably Gosder Cherilus from Boston College. And I say that because he was a left tackle at B.C., and he's not going to be a left tackle in the NFL. He's going to be a right tackle. (The 49ers) have Joe Staley to be your left tackle. Now you have Cherilus at right tackle . . . Obviously as a right tackle, he drops down a bit. That's why he maybe gets into the late first round. I'd say a Cherilus at that point would be a guy you'd have to consider."
On 3-4 OLBs/DEs
"After Gholston, you'd be looking at probably Cliff Avril from Purdue, you'd be looking at Bruce Davis from UCLA, Quentin Groves from Auburn. If you want another guy. Marcus Howard from Georgia could be a fourth- or fifth-round guy . . . for the 49ers, I'd look at Davis, Avril or Groves to kind of fit what they're looking for. . . . I wanted to give you one other guy, Curtis Johnson, a defensive end/outside linebacker from Clark in Atlanta. He is another kid who fits the mold and would be ideally suited to be that 3-4 outside linebacker."

We've already discussed Cherilus and Groves.  Of course it's always nice to get some later round pick options thrown out there to keep an eye on come draft day.

My question becomes, how good an analyst is Mel Kiper?  I did a google search of Mel Kiper accuracy and came across a Football Outsiders article from a year titled Rating Mel Kiper.  It primarily involved going through his overrated and underrated lists and comparing them to how things worked out.  The best line after looking at 1993-2004?  

On balance, Kiper appears to be neither a genius at spotting talent nor the hapless clown that some of his detractors portray him to be. He's had a good number of hits, but he's also been completely wrong about his fair share of players over the years.

Mel Kiper started his scouting business while in college and currently runs it at Mel Kiper, Jr.'s First Round.  Is he just a guy who jumped on a trend early and is considered an expert because he was one of the pioneers?  Or does he actually bring something to the table beyond the fact that he can watch a lot of film of players?  I will give him credit for going through all that tape and learning about all these players, but beyond putting in the time, where does that leave him as far as actual utility?