We're back for Week 8 of the Prediction Contest. A slight adjustment this week. After the formatting rules after the jump, howtheyscored has provided a breakdown of how the scoring system works, along with some examples using games from week 7. And of course thanks to everybody for following the formatting rules.
Aside from the 49ers-Colts, we've got a fairly high profile NFC East showdown between the Giants and Eagles, with the winner taking hold of first place. Elsewhere, Mike Nolan gets to make his triumphant return to Baltimore and of course that QB heads back to his old stomping grounds in the often frozen tundra. I'm curious to see how the fan reaction is early on.
Also, just a reminder that as always all times listed are pacific. On to the games.
49ers @ Indianapolis - Sunday 11/1 10:00am
Atlanta @ New Orleans - MNF 11/2 5:30pm
NY Giants @ Philadelphia - Sunday 11/1 10:00am
Denver @ Baltimore - Sunday 11/1 10:00am
Houston @ Buffalo - Sunday 11/1 10:00am
Minnesota @ Green Bay - Sunday 11/1 1:15pm
IMPORTANT NEW RULE
Up until now, folks have just posted their scores in any particular fashion, although howtheyscored has made requests for a specific format. Given the amount of time and effort howtheyscored has to put into determining the final results, I am implementing a requirement for how to format your scores (based on the spreadsheet howtheyscored has created). If you fail to follow this format, any incorrectly formatted scores for the week will be disqualified. The format is "Team A @ Team B: A score - B score." That basically is visitor @ home: visitor score - home score." Here's an example of how to do it:
Using Arizona @ NY GIants below, if you think NY Giants will win 24-14, here's how it HAS to look:
Arizona @ NY Giants: 14 - 24
If you think Arizona will win 24-14, it needs to appear as this:
Arizona @ NY Giants: 24 - 14
If you'd like you can bold the winner (Arizona @ NY Giants: 14 - 24), but that is not required (although probably a good backup in case you reversed the score by accident.
If you make a mistake in the formatting I'll reply to your score reminding you to correct it. To correct it, simply reply to your picks and post them in the correct format. Do not post your scores again at the bottom of the thread. I'll make sure and include these directions each week so people do not forgot and lose out on points. As I mentioned above, we're doing this to make howtheyscored's life easier in figuring out the scores. The # of regular commenters has increased dramatically since last season, so we're anticipating a greater # of prediction contest participants. While this is a new rule, I don't think it's all that difficult for folks to follow it.
Every score is made up of two parts: Point total and point differential. First we see how close your prediction’s point total is to the actual score’s point total. The closer you are to zero, the better. Then, we see how close your prediction’s point differential is to the actual point differential. Again, closer to zero is better. Then, we add those two numbers together. That number gives you a raw score for your prediction.Then, we rank each game by raw scores. The players with the five lowest raw scores get points. The lowest get five points. Next lowest get four. And so on.
For that game, let's look at three predictions: 1) 17 - 23, Pitt; 2) 23 - 27, Pitt; and 3) 17 - 27, Pitt.
Remember, nobody who predicted the Vikings to win the game was eligible for points.
The first prediction had a point differential of 6 (23-17=6). This was 4 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 40 (23+17=40). This was 4 away from the actual point total. All in all, that gives the prediction a raw score of 8.
The second prediction had a point differential of 4 (27-23=4), which was 6 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 50 (27+23=50), which was 6 away from the actual point total. That gives the prediction a raw score of 12.
The third prediction had a point differential of 10 (27-17=10), which was 0 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 44 (27+17=44), which was 0 away from the actual point total. That gives the prediction a raw score of 0.
Since the lower your raw score is, the better your prediction, the third prediction is ranked as the best and gets the most points (and since it was a perfect prediction, there is no arguing that it was the best). The first prediction had the next lowest raw score, so it ranks as the second best prediction of the group, netting the next most points. The second prediction, therefore, came in third.
If anybody has any questions at all about this, or anything else, feel free to email me at email@example.com.