For the first time since the advent of the season long prediction contest, the 49ers will be playing in a game before the weekend, hosting the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football. Due to this timing issue, howtheyscored and I have come up with a short-term fix for this week. Each week we normally have everybody predict scores for six games, including the 49ers matchup. Since some folks might not get predictions in before Thursday, here's what we're going to do:
I will post 7 different games. 5 games will be locked in as prediction games for everybody. Then, there will be the 49ers game and a wildcard game. If you want to predict the 49ers game, you will NOT be able to score any points for the wildcard game (thus meaning you don't need to make a prediction for it). If you forget to make your selections before the 49ers game, you can still use the wildcard game as your sixth game. One option you also have: make just your prediction for the 49ers game by Thursday, and then add your remaining five picks later in the week. If you decide to do that it is essential that you submit those scores by replying directly to your 49ers prediction (instead of posting a new comment at the bottom of the page). If you have ANY questions about this, please ask so we can make sure there is no confusion.
Prediction format and scoring rules are after the jump. As always, the times are pacific.
Chicago @ 49ers - Thursday 11/12 5:20pm
Baltimore @ Cleveland - MNF 11/16 5:30pm
New England @ Indianapolis - SNF 11/15 5:20pm
Jacksonville @ NY Jets - Sunday 11/15 10:00am
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh - Sunday 11/15 10:00am
Philadelphia @ San Diego - Sunday 11/15 1:15pm
Dallas @ Green Bay - Sunday 11/15 1:15pm - ***WILDCARD GAME***
Just a reminder: If you make a prediction for the 49ers game, do not submit a prediction for Dallas/Green Bay. If you forget or don't want to make a 49ers prediction, DO make a prediction for Dallas/Green Bay.
IMPORTANT NEW RULE
Up until now, folks have just posted their scores in any particular fashion, although howtheyscored has made requests for a specific format. Given the amount of time and effort howtheyscored has to put into determining the final results, I am implementing a requirement for how to format your scores (based on the spreadsheet howtheyscored has created). If you fail to follow this format, any incorrectly formatted scores for the week will be disqualified. The format is "Team A @ Team B: A score - B score." That basically is visitor @ home: visitor score - home score." Here's an example of how to do it:
Using Baltimore @ Cleveland below, if you think Cleveland will win 24-14, here's how it HAS to look:
Baltimore @ Cleveland: 14 - 24
If you think Baltimore will win 24-14, it needs to appear as this:
Baltimore @ Cleveland: 24 - 14
If you'd like you can bold the winner (Baltimore @ Cleveland: 14 - 24), but that is not required (although probably a good backup in case you reversed the score by accident.
If you make a mistake in the formatting I'll reply to your score reminding you to correct it. To correct it, simply reply to your picks and post them in the correct format. Do not post your scores again at the bottom of the thread. I'll make sure and include these directions each week so people do not forgot and lose out on points. As I mentioned above, we're doing this to make howtheyscored's life easier in figuring out the scores. The # of regular commenters has increased dramatically since last season, so we're anticipating a greater # of prediction contest participants. While this is a new rule, I don't think it's all that difficult for folks to follow it.
Every score is made up of two parts: Point total and point differential. First we see how close your prediction’s point total is to the actual score’s point total. The closer you are to zero, the better. Then, we see how close your prediction’s point differential is to the actual point differential. Again, closer to zero is better. Then, we add those two numbers together. That number gives you a raw score for your prediction.Then, we rank each game by raw scores. The players with the five lowest raw scores get points. The lowest get five points. Next lowest get four. And so on.
For that game, let's look at three predictions: 1) 17 - 23, Pitt; 2) 23 - 27, Pitt; and 3) 17 - 27, Pitt.
Remember, nobody who predicted the Vikings to win the game was eligible for points.
The first prediction had a point differential of 6 (23-17=6). This was 4 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 40 (23+17=40). This was 4 away from the actual point total. All in all, that gives the prediction a raw score of 8.
The second prediction had a point differential of 4 (27-23=4), which was 6 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 50 (27+23=50), which was 6 away from the actual point total. That gives the prediction a raw score of 12.
The third prediction had a point differential of 10 (27-17=10), which was 0 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 44 (27+17=44), which was 0 away from the actual point total. That gives the prediction a raw score of 0.
Since the lower your raw score is, the better your prediction, the third prediction is ranked as the best and gets the most points (and since it was a perfect prediction, there is no arguing that it was the best). The first prediction had the next lowest raw score, so it ranks as the second best prediction of the group, netting the next most points. The second prediction, therefore, came in third.
If anybody has any questions at all about this, or anything else, feel free to email me at email@example.com.